1) Mitt Romney – Gov. Romney remains in the best position to win the GOP nomination in 2012. He continues to do everything right; good interviews, smart policy critiques of Obama without the red meat attacks, joining the he National Council for a New America, etc. He gave a wide ranging speech on national defense spending and budgets to the Heritage Foundation, the most convincing sign yet that Romney is all in for 2012. Until someone else emerges clicking on all cylinders, he will remain poised as the undisputed front-runner for 2012. The misfortune of many 2012 potential candidates is beginning to make me think Mitt has a voodoo doll collection of GOP upstarts. Their failings are Mitt’s gains, as he looks more and more the solid, intelligent, national leader with each passing day. Palin is just the latest Republican to make Romney look good by default.
2) Mike Huckabee – Palin’s resignation helps Gov. Huckabee more then any other candidate. Huckabee is unlikely to be able to match Romeny over the long haul with limited resources without building momentum in Iowa and South Carolina. Palin and Sanford have now helped make Huckabee the front-runner to repeat in Iowa, and given him an early edge in South Carolina. Romney would have been well served with Palin and Huck splitting social cons, but now may not have that scenario to aid him. Unless Palin’s new found freedom helps her build a strong network and leads to a 2012 bid, then Huckabee will certainly have the best early chance at topping Romney and becoming the front-runner.
3) Tim Pawlenty - Minnesota’s governor has the proven ability to win in the bluest of states (even Reagan never won Minnesota) with his blue-collar Republican message. I imagine T-Paw’s Sam’s Club populism could be quite effective in 2012 after years of bailouts and debt. He is also an evangelical, and could give Palin and Huckabee a run for the support of values voters. Governor Pawlenty could appeal to all sectors of the party in ways that the Big Three from 2008(Romney, Huckabee, Palin) have failed to do. Having decided against a third term bid, Pawlenty is now free to build a national organization and shape his message for a GOP primary. With the stumbles and affairs of Jindal, Palin, Ensign, and Sanford, Pawlenty has the chance to become the new face in leading a revival for the GOP.
4) John Thune - Senator Thune is the most likely member of the Senate to get the GOP nod in 2012. He has the conservative resume to win over the base, the looks and communication skills to win over the broader electorate, and a chance in the Senate leadership to become the rhetorical counter to Obama the next four years. His lobbying ties and strong religious values could hurt him some with moderates. It seems more and more, however, that the Senator is making all the subtle moves to run. He has become the strategic point man to defeat Obama on Card-Check, Cap and Trade, and other legislation. Senator Thune could emerge as a unifying figure in a field with a number of candidates who have difficulty winning over certain parts of the party; Romney with evangelicals, Huckabee with fiscal cons, Palin with moderates. Sen. John Ensign’s scandal all but eliminates him as a potential 2012, and Thune stands to gain the most from it politically. Not only does it eliminate a fellow senator and rival, but now Thune is the leading candidate to replace Ensign in the Senate Leadership, proof of Thune’s rising star. If Palin is truly gone for 2012 and beyond, then look for the social cons to look for a new charismatic rock star, and Thune fits that bill better then most.
5) Newt Gingrich – The next generation of Republicans are not off to a great start, which makes it all the more likely that the party turns to an old hand to help revive it. Speaker Gingrich, amazing as it is, is beginning to look like an old, steady hand compared to some of the young guns, and given his potential for bold ideas and solid fundraising, puts him back near the top of the list. It is quite possible that if Obama fails that the country prefer a more proven, older leader to that of some new, young unknown. However, Newt is the only ‘old guard’ potential candidate with 1994 cred and strategic acumen. Gov. Barbour, in his former capacity as RNC chairman had a lot to do with 1994’s success, along with Gingrich, Dick Armey, and Bob Dole, and some would argue the most to do with the success that cycle. If and when Obama falls short, the nomination could come down to two of the party’s smartest, most proven and controversial leaders.
6) Haley Barbour - Governor Barbour is perhaps the greatest strategist in the party. Putting those considerable skills to use, he could build a strong campaign and give himself a good chance to win the primary. However, Barbour is also the man who virtually invented modern lobbying and ran the most powerful lobbying firm in D.C., and while this may make him a legend to the inside-the-Beltway crowd, it would make him a tough sell to average voters. Barbour is still going to be a very important player in the rebuilding of the party, whether he runs or not. Mark Sanford’s affair and resignation as head of the RGA moves Barbour into the leadership role ahead of schedule, and elevates Barbour by process of elimination. As troubles for other governors mount, Barbour could continue this elevation by his competence alone, and further it with his famed political instincts.
7) Jeb Bush - Bush joined the National Council for a New America, signaling his desire to take on a larger role in the national GOP. His name hurts now, but his popularity in Florida shows that he can outrun his brother’s shadow. As of December his brother’s approval rating in Florida was 29%, while his was 65%. His passing on a guaranteed senate victory is telling though. The National Council for a New America gives Jeb a new forum to reintroduce himself and his family name in a much different light, showing people that he is much more the pragmatic and thoughtful leader his brother never was. His name has started to come up from both welcome sources (the Daily Beast) and unwelcome sources (Dick Cheney) as a potential candidate. Expect those calls to get louder and louder, especially with Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination to the SCOTUS possibly creating even greater losses for the GOP among Hispanics and Jeb’s proven appeal to the Hispanic community. With the continued stumbles of potential candidates like Palin, Jindal, Sanford, and Ensign, how much longer can the GOP afford to keep Jeb sidelined because of the perception of his brother? It’s time to be grownups, and time for Jeb to take a larger role.
8 ) Mitch Daniels - A very successful Rust Belt governor, Mitch Daniels proved himself by running what many call the best governor’s campaign of 2008 despite the dreadful climate for republicans. He is a graduate of Princeton and Georgetown, and served as Director of the OMB, while also sitting on the National Security Council and Homeland Security Council. Oh and he’s Arab-American(Syrian to be exact), proving once again that the GOP is far more inclusive then advertised. Recently Daniels has stepped up not only his criticism of Obama’s policies, but of the GOP’s current standing too, sounding a lot like someone who wants to lead the party out of the wilderness.
9) Jim DeMint - The purity candidate to say the least, Senator DeMint is as about as conservative as they get, and if the party is truly headed to a purge of moderates, then Senator DeMint stands in good position to be king of what remains. He has a rock solid conservative record and is likely to be a visible opponent of Obama these next 4 years on virtually everything the President wants to do. Senator DeMint happily endorsed Club for Growth head and former Congressman Pat Toomey against then-Republican Arlen Spector, followed by an endorsement of Marco Rubio despite establishment support for Charlie Crist, showing just how far DeMint is willing to go for an ideologically pure GOP as well as sending a message to disloyal Republicans in name only. With a record that can win over Iowa’s GOP and a home base in South Carolina, DeMint could emerge as a GOP Howard Dean, leader of the Republican Wing of the Republican Party. The fall of Sanford may have just openned the door a bit more for a potential DeMint run.
10) Sarah Palin - The stunning resignation of Gov. Palin may or may not be directed at a 2012 bid, but at the moment this would have to certainly hurt her chances, unless her plans become more clear in the next year. Even if relieving herself of the governorship gives her a more logical chance to network and fundraise, it also gives her opponents an even greater line of attack then they have had in the past. ‘You’re a quitter when the going gets tough’ will become a familiar line of attack both within the party and out. It may in the end prove to be a shrewd move, allowing her to build a strong enough team to seriously make a run, or there may be another shoe to drop that will put the final nail in her political coffin. In the end, she is only 45, and by 2024 will still only be the same age as Hillary during the 2008 race, so who can say what happens by then. However, at this moment in time, she has weakened her chances. We’ll see if she can do anything to change that in the months and years to come.
11) Bobby Jindal – At this point, Jindal seems focused on reelection, and that will almost certainly take him out of the race, just as Huntsman’s appointment and Crist’s Senate bid having taken them out of the running. Until he commits to a second term run officially, he will remain a top potential candidate, but as he reelection big seems more and more likely, he will continue to slide on this and other lists. His recent rough patch may force Jindal to target 2016 anyway. However, a VP nomination remains a strong possibility. Jindal has asked the leaders of a Draft Jindal for President effort to disband, furthering the notion that he will run for reelection and pass on 2012.
12) Rudy Giuliani – America’s Mayor is gearing up for a run against Governor David Patterson in 2010, and if that race happens, a likely victorious Governor Giuliani could instantly be back among the front-runners in 2012. Rudy remains a popular figure in polls both among Republicans and independents, and in an environment of a poor economy that is likely followed by high crime rates, the former mayor and potential governor could find himself in a strong position. Lessons learned from 2008 could serve Rudy well in the early states, and with no McCain to compete with he could become the consensus leader among the GOP’s moderate and national security wing. If another Presidential bid isn’t in the cards, a VP slot may not be far off.
13) Kay Bailey Hutchison- Senator Hutchison’s likely election to the Governorship of Texas could serve her well as a platform to launch a national bid. More moderate and experienced than Palin, Hutchison could succeed in winning over women voters where Palin came up short. Her moderate views would make it difficult to win a GOP primary, but defeating the more conservative Rick Perry would be a good example of how she can overcome those odds nationally. If Texas says she is conservative enough, maybe Iowa will as well.
14) Paul Ryan- A new face full of new ideas, Congressman Paul Ryan has been fondly referred to as the future of the GOP. But with many of today’s GOP leaders falling apart, the future may be now for this young GOP congressman. Ryan is a budgetary wiz and an ideas machine, complete with a website that shows his policy ideas for a revamped healthcare system and a rewritten tax code, which is why it is no surprise that the young congressman has bonded with former House Speaker and ideas guru Newt Gingrich. With the GOP looking for Gingrich-esque ideas to lead a comeback, Congressman Ryan may be the leader to deliver. With other Republican leaders falling by the way side, the chance for an even bigger role come 2012 could come Ryan’s way.
15) Gary Johnson - Congressman Ron Paul and his supporters seemed excited about the potential candidacy of fellow Libertarian Conservative Mark Sanford. Now that Sanford has admitted an affair and has all but been eliminated from contention, the Libertarians may turn to Paul-supporter and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson to lend voice to their movement. The void created both by Ron Paul’s age and Sanford’s indiscretions could create a solid base of support for Johnson. Johnson has stated that he is thinking about a 2012 run, and with Sanford’s fall, that thinking may just have gotten a lot more serious.
Previous Rankings:
1) Mitt Romney
2) Sarah Palin
3) Mike Huckabee
4) Tim Pawlenty
5) John Thune
6) Newt Gingrich
7) Jeb Bush
8 ) Haley Barbour
9) Mitch Daniels
10) Jim DeMint
11) Bobby Jindal
12) Rudy Giuliani
13) Paul Ryan
14) Gary Johnson
15) Kay Bailey Hutchison
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July 4th, 2009 at 1:04 am
Sorry but we can’t take you seriously having Palin as high as no 10! Dude!
Did you not see her disaster of a speech today??
No person has ever resigned in disgrace and come back and won the nomination 3 years later. In fact the race really starts in Nov next year!
We should be talking about who is the one person who will move into the top tier (there is almost always 3). Newt, T/Paw or J/Thune????
July 4th, 2009 at 1:07 am
1 – I wouldn’t call it resigning in disgrace, it was pretty strange though. Definitely takes a chunk out of someone’s credibility to quit out of nowhere with almost half of their first term left to go.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:18 am
If there is no scandal, and she is acutally going to travel the country, make speeches, and campaign/fundraise for candidates then she has to be considered. She can still win Iowa, that alone keeps her in the top 10. Until she makes a Shermanesque statement about running, or until a scandal breaks, she’s in the running.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:27 am
Okay, if there is a scandal, then Palin is off the list, but if not, can she seriously be placed behind DeMint and Barbour? I know it’s a tough call, but it looks like you’re justing splitting the difference here between two unknown scenarios.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:31 am
4 – I wish DeMint was even higher on the list. If he had a good shot he’d be my new second choice.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:42 am
MWS,
I look at it this way, if she did this to build a team and to run, then she still has a shot. At the moment it looks bad, bad enough to list her behind a hardcore movement conservative like DeMint, although they are on about even footing in my opinion. I can’t see Palin in her current state beating out a strategist with the connections and skills that Barbour has, he is just too good at being a politician. Same goes for Bush and Gingrich.
The list is essentially a top 10 of most likely contenders, with 5 additional names that you hear about running but are more likely VP material. With the exception of Johnson, I think 11-15 would all be VP contenders on certain tickets. 10 is really as low as you get on the list for the true top of the ticket contenders.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:53 am
It was a stupid move. Poltical Hari Kari.
July 4th, 2009 at 2:09 am
She’s just done. Too erratic, too histrionic, too inexplicably unaccountable. How anyone could possibly want to put her in charge of the country after a bizarre, cryptic stunt like this is beyond me.
July 4th, 2009 at 3:03 am
Palin is done.
I have a feeling the 2012 Republican primaries will be smaller than in 2008.
2008 had about 11 serious candidates (most of which had almost no chance of winning, but were full time campaigning and such none-the-less)
I think 2012 will have 6-7 candidates (including Ron Paul-type candidates, in that they have almost 0% chance but are full on campaigning and accepted as a candidate)
Probably something like:
Romney
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Barbour
Johnson
Some random Senator
Some random Representative or Governor
July 4th, 2009 at 3:11 am
Didn’t Palin just hire David Murrow as her New Communication Director?
I think Palin was being pulled in too many directions. Bill Kristol, Fred Barns, the entire staff of the Weekly Standard, Dick Morris, Gretta’s Husband. Then the radio show hosts like Rush, Laura, Beck, Levin. They were all putting pressure on her one way or another.
She was very difficult to follow at her news conference,which is nothing new, but something is not right.
July 4th, 2009 at 3:19 am
Romney/Thune 2012
July 4th, 2009 at 3:29 am
Rush and co are going to twist themselves into pretzels to justify Palin’s irresponsibility. It’s never going to end. She has some kind of sick hold on people.
July 4th, 2009 at 4:09 am
Let’s not panic and stretch for candidates.
The obvious is staring us in the face. And no Mitt Romney is no Bob Dole and 2012 doesn’t have to be 1996!
July 4th, 2009 at 4:36 am
#13; Mitt Romney is not sitting around waiting to be next in line. He is out there consulting Congress and being a very important part of the Republican Party.
I don’t think he is the type to sit around and watch the death of the GOP. I also think he sees the Dems beginning to fall from their perch. There is nobody out there like the Media telling the Dems that they are going to far.
I don’t remember Bob Dole ever being dynamic candidate, And I don’t know why they are saying he was the next in line.
July 4th, 2009 at 5:12 am
I’m glad Romney is preparing himself well to be Pawlenty’s VP. A guy like him to keep the wheels of the executive branch greased and running smoothly is a tremendous asset.
Also, the idea of Jeb Bush, moving beyond the Bush name of course, really isn’t a bad one at all. I’m starting to like the thought of it.
July 4th, 2009 at 5:35 am
“Rush and co are going to twist themselves into pretzels to justify Palin’s irresponsibility. It’s never going to end. She has some kind of sick hold on people.” Really, Martha, I’ll tell you what is really sick and bizarre, it is people who dream up phony ethics charges and trash the Palin family. As sad as I am that Mrs. Palin is essentially leaving politics, I do not blame her one bit.
July 4th, 2009 at 5:40 am
Just a hunch, it might mean something if it can be put together. It might be a clue to her future.
Palin fires Mcalister as her communications Director on June 29th, and hires David Murrow. She said in her farewell speech today that her decision has been in the works for awhile.
It kind of sounds like she wants to make money.
July 4th, 2009 at 5:50 am
#16; It is kind of strange that Palin announced today when most if not all of her public supporters on radio and T.V. are on vacation all next week.
July 4th, 2009 at 7:20 am
Well, I guess it will be Huckabee’s turn to fall away. It’s funny that the #2 guy is one who has no shot. I expect him to continue his day job as he is way to controversial to be elected. But I suppose someone has to be #2.
As for Pawlenty, I know almost nothing about him. I know that Social Conservatives love him and I think he will take votes away from Huckabee.
Jeb Bush would be a real threat to win the nomination if he was running. As a Floridian, I know he would make a great POTUS. Should Jeb throw his hat in the ring, he would immediately rocket up to 1-B IMHO.
July 4th, 2009 at 8:03 am
Frankly, my instincts are starting to tell me that Jeb IS going to run…if we see Obama’s numbers chip away 1% every month until Jan 2011, he’ll be hovering around 40%, and in my opinion, that’s where he’ll be on election day. Jeb has an opening with hispanics and fiscal conservatives. He could make a run for it…my guess is that he’d tap Colin Powell early on as his running mate.
July 4th, 2009 at 8:04 am
Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee won’t get the nominee in 2012. If Sarah Palin doesn’t run in 2012, I think Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota might get the nominee and run for President on the ticket. Pawlenty is conservative.
July 4th, 2009 at 9:35 am
There is something weird and disconcerting about Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty and Palin all vying in 2011-12 to be president without actually holding a position. I think this will be an election cycle where it will be meaningful to have been on the frontline instead of the sideline. Which is one additional reason why Romney and Huckabee may not benefit from having run last time. I know people point to the Reagan model, but times are different. We live in a time-sensitive age and the idea that someone wants to be president who has not been in any office for over four years is untenable.
July 4th, 2009 at 10:37 am
#22 If candidates that are not in office can stay on the front lines and make a noticeable difference in helping Republicans pick up seats in 2010, then who’s going to think they were on the sidelines. It hurts for someone who didn’t finish a term, but for governors who completed their terms, it shouldn’t hurt them.
July 4th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Honestly, I just don’t get it. One of the calls against Palin in the election was that she did not have enough experience. I know many in the business world who either stayed home or voted for Obama because they were unimpressed with Palin.
Her quitting makes sense if she did it for her family. Afterall when it all comes down to it, if you lost everything in the world the only thing that would matter would be your family. So I salute her for putting her family before her career aspirations.
But if she honestly did this as some sort of plan to run for either POTUS in 2012/2016 or senator in 2010, then it makes no sense. She quit. She left in the middle of the game. I could not vote for her based on that reason. She now has no way of increasing her experience. One could say that she will study up and campaign for others and that will be her experience. But then you go back to the fact that she quit on Alaskans in order to pursue a national goal. That is selfish and narcissistic.
So it really does come down to Huckabee and Romney. I already see the establishment and Fox pushing Romney as the only one left. But that is what happened in 2008. And I think Americans next time around will say, wait: the media pushed Obama on us and the beltway pushed Romney on us. I think Americans, after all the teaparties and being fed up with government, will look to someone who is not establishment, and someone who connects with middle America. So I see Huckabee and Pawlenty as being the ones who will capture America’s heart next time around.
July 4th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
The nominee will be either Romney or Huckabee. I lean towards Romney. Pawlenty will get some support but wont be able to get that early win to stay in the game to the end.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Romney/Rubio 2012
July 4th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Gary Johnson or someone who can tap into the Ron Paul support will do well. Remember he was the #1 fundraiser in the critical 4th Q. Now with Sanford out, some early MONEYBOMB funds and all of the sudden Johnson is sitting their with more money than the rest. I think it is fair to say some of Paul’s early money and support came from young people who ended up siding with Obama. With Obama doing such a terrible job, those people could be back in play looking for another CHANGE candidate.
July 4th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
24 – I don’t think Fox will push Romney, Huckabee is PART of Fox.
July 4th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Fox has been pushing Romney. One pundit said that with Sarah’s resignation “Romney is now the de fact nominee” for 2012. I really like Sarah, but I think she should not try for the nomination for 2012. She would be absolutely crushed in 2012, after this surprising resignation.
July 4th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
#21. Great insight… Very insightful…
July 4th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
“I already see the establishment and Fox pushing Romney as the only one left. But that is what happened in 2008. And I think Americans next time around will say, wait: the media pushed Obama on us and the beltway pushed Romney on us. I think Americans, after all the teaparties and being fed up with government, will look to someone who is not establishment, and someone who connects with middle America. So I see Huckabee and Pawlenty as being the ones who will capture America’s heart next time around.”
I see that pattern with the conservative media and Romney.
July 4th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
I sure hope people don’t start viewing Romney as establishment because he’s never been an establishment guy and that’s why talk radio and top conservatives ended up waiting too long to endorse him. I think what we are seeing is that the establishment is realizing they made a mistake because it took them too long to make up their mind on Mitt BECAUSE HE ISN’T AN ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIAN.
July 5th, 2009 at 3:42 am
Has has the East Coast elite establishment firmly behind him.
Mitt almost has this wrapped up before it even began!
If only Barry will be as easy!
July 6th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Why does everyone talk about a Ron Paul “type” candidate? Ron Paul has said he will decide later this year whether or not he will run. He may well be a candidate in 2012. So why isn’t he on the list? If he runs, it’s doubtful that Johnson will. And Ron Paul would surely rank in the top 10 even if his chances of winning are remote.
But also keep in mind that Ron Paul turned off a lot of Republicans last time because he spent most of the campaign criticizing George Bush. If he runs in 2012, he will be criticizing Barack Obama for the exact same things. But by then, it will be red meat for Republicans.