Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- 46% (43%) / 45% (49%) [+1%]
Among Republicans
- 79% (75%) / 16% (20%) [+63%]
Among Independents
- 45% (44%) / 38% (42%) [+7%]
Among Conservatives
- 77% (72%) / 17% (21%) [+60%]
Among Moderates
- 27% (33%) / 59% (58%) [-32%]
Do you think that Sarah Palin is fit to be President?
- Yes 37%
- No 55%
Among Republicans
- Yes 68%
- No 24%
Among Independents
- Yes 39%
- No 50%
Among Conservatives
- Yes 67%
- No 26%
Among Moderates
- Yes 19%
- No 71%
Among Men
- Yes 43%
- No 50%
Among Women
- Yes 32%
- No 59%
Did Sarah Palin’s announcement that she will resign part way through her term as Governor of Alaska make you more or less likely to support her in a possible future campaign for President?
- More likely 30%
- Less likely 57%
Among Republicans
- More likely 48%
- Less likely 32%
Among Independents
- More likely 26%
- Less likely 54%
Among Conservatives
- More likely 49%
- Less likely 31%
Among Moderates
- More likely 18%
- Less likely 70%
Survey of 923 voters was conducted July 6-7. The margin of error is +/-3.2 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% (D); 37% (R); 23% (I). Political ideology breakdown: 41% Conservative; 37% Moderate; 23% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Among voters with a favorable opinion of her 21% do not say she is fit to be President. Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of her only 1% say she is fit to be President. Both of these numbers present problems for Palin. The first one shows that even among a decent chunk of voters who like her they don’t think she’s suited to be leader of the free world. The second one shows that there’s little hope of her earning the respect of her detractors. For instance many Democrats, while holding an unfavorable opinion of John McCain, would still say that he is fit to be President. But when it comes to Palin they don’t like her or take her particularly seriously.
What does it mean? She’s absolutely beloved by the party base and there’s no doubt she can be a hit for years to come at fundraisers and GOTV rallies. And she may even be popular enough with Republicans to score the party’s nomination in 2012 if she wants it. But national polls we conducted between March and June showed her trailing Barack Obama by an average of 16 points, worse than Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich. And the numbers within this most recent poll would seem to further confirm that barring some major rehabilitation of her image, nominating her in 2012 would be a GOP death wish.
I doubt she’ll run in 2012 but if she does my guess is that she only ends up getting nominated if Barack Obama’s reelection seems inevitable and Republicans just want to vote for someone who makes them feel good, ala Barry Goldwater in 1964. If they think they have a real chance of winning they’ll probably nominate someone who is perceived to be more electable.
July 8th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Aron,
Are you going to put up the Rasmussen/issues poll as well?
July 8th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
“We’re also going to be looking at perceptions of Palin in some individual states over the next few weeks, beginning with Minnesota on Friday.”
July 8th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
#1 How do you explain the 34 point uptick in Sarah’s favorables among liberal voters?
July 8th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Bob,
Statistical noise. George Bush won around 13% of liberals in 2004, so it’s not too surprising. Her numbers with liberals in the last poll were probably too low and this one is too high but it’s probably statistical noise.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
#4 Are there any other examples of ’statistical noise’?
Does her F/UF now confirm the result of the PEW poll three weeks ago which had her at 45/44?
July 8th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
I must say I am a bit fearful that her numbers are that good among liberals. In any event her numbers are a lot better than her opponents (and perhaps former opponents) promised them to be. If nothing else she would be great at raising money for Palinite Congressional candidates.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
#6
Now here is how a political operative would think. Here are the numbers of favorability and here are the numbers regarding perception to be POTUS. What we need to do is to bridge the gap between likeability and credibility and to do that we need to LEGITIMIZE Sarah by laying in the foundation of a successful campaign including recruiting top advisors, demonstrate her political acumen and prescience with the issues and to demonstrate her LEADERSHIP abilities as she travels through the lower 48 giving speeches, writing op-eds, meeting people, and raising money.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
http://race42008.com/2009/07/07/poll-watch-rasmussen-2012-republican-presidential-primary-survey/
July 8th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Aron,
There’s a new Rasmussen poll:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/romney_leads_among_gop_voters_with_fiscal_concerns
July 8th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
When it comes to whether she’s fit to be President though, 55% of voters in the country say no with just 37% in the affirmative. And asked specifically how her early resignation affects their inclination to some day support her for the White House, 57% of respondents say it makes them less likely to do so compared to 30% who say it makes them more likely to vote for her.
THis is the most damaging finding. If you posted it, I didn’t see it. This says that only 37% consider her to be fit to be President! That is downright devestating. Even if she got all of that vote, which is highly unlikely, it would still be terrible news for her.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Illinoisguy,
How’d you miss it? It’s the first question posted after the favorables.
Tommy,
Click on the link — it’s the same poll. I simply integrated the newly-released data into the post.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Wow, Fit to be President:
Among Women
Yes 32%
No 59%
July 8th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
So the basic gist is that Palin’s resignation might help her in the primary and hurt her in the general.
That sounds like a recipe for disaster.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Yes, Aron, I saw it afterwards…i was looking for the verbage, sorry big guy!
July 8th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Aron,
Rasmussen provided more data today regarding which candidates receive support from likely Republican voters based on which issues such voters consider to be the most important. Take a look at that link again.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
“So the basic gist is that Palin’s resignation might help her in the primary and hurt her in the general.”
I don’t read that it would help her in the primary….I think a few more people are favorable amongst the Republicans, but that doesn’t translate into they become there first choice by any means. Again, you need to be careful in interpreting favorable/unfavorable polls. The biggy here is whether or not she is seen as fit to be President.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
This poll is weird… on the one hand, among every ideolgical group (except moederates), her favorables have risen slightly (shes up 7 pts overall, from -6 to +1)… but at the same time, those same ppl (indies especialy) see her decision to resign before her term was over as making them less likely to vote for her than more likely to vote for her by nearly a 2-1 margin.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
What is most astonishing about the Rasmussen poll that Sarah Palin is number one at 29% (yes Romney is at 26%)by those for whom national security is most important. For somebody who was supposedly a dunce on national security and foreign affairs this assessment by folks who see the world primarily through this lens does not add up. What you have to conclude is either these voters are idiots or Palin may not be perceived as such as dunce on this subject as the MSM would have us believe. Perhaps Palin’s performance against Joe Biden in the foreign affairs part of the debate wasn’t a fluke after all or perceived to be a fluke.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
I’m not sure what you’re referring to. Look at the updated post, and let me know what, if any, data is missing.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
bob – Her people believe she knows more because she can see Russia from her front porch. That gives her an unfair advantage.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
18 – this may be connecting people who are seeing the overseas trips to visit troops. The deduce that she is supportive of the military and therefore of a strong foreign policy. After this week, they may think she strongly supports fishing.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Now let me ask you? If you were a Presidential candidate what would you rather have? Decent favorability numbers with people who think you might not be up to the job or low favorability numbers but good numbers on your ability to be POTUS one day.
Of the latter there are scores of former Presidential candidates who never made the cut-competent but dull and of the former not so many.
If the election was being held today Sarah Palin would not be POTUS. But fortunately for her and her supporters her rendezvous with destiny is not for 40 months. In #7 I listed what she needed to do to bridge the gap between likeability and credibility.
Resigning from being Governor will allow Sarah to work on this gap over the next 12-18 months.
I forgot to mention being number one or two in the polls consistently among GOP hopefuls would also help her cause and LEGITIMIZE her brand.
July 8th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Aron,
This part:
“Those who say economic and fiscal issues are their biggest concerns make up the majority of Republican voters, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney runs best among those voters if the 2012 GOP Presidential Primary in their state was held today.
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is the top choice for those Republicans who put national security first and ties Romney for first among voters who list economic issues alone as the priority. She runs second in nearly every other case with voters from all camps….
Among those Republicans who put economic issues first, Romney and Palin are tied with 24% support if the state primaries were held today. Huckabee is backed by 20%, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 15% of their vote.
But Romney at 34% is far and away the favorite among those who say fiscal issues are most important, followed by Palin (24%), Huckabee (17%) and Gingrich (14%).
Palin is first with 29% support among voters for whom national security is most important. Romney runs a close second at 26%, with Huckabee at 19% and Gingrich at 16%.”
July 8th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
July 8th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
#17:
Think of a highly-touted running back just out of college. The sports pundits deem him a ‘can’t miss’ prospect but don’t think he’s ready yet to become a starter.
Then the starter suffers a knee injury. The rookie comes in and performs and 6 games later you proclaim him ‘the next one’ and on the road to the Hall of Fame. What changed?
Two things: The rookie got to play and showed he had talent and could perform and execute at the highest level in a consistent manner. And secondly you got to compare him with other players on the field and other players in the league to measure him by.
The conclusion you came to: how did I ever think that this rookie wasn’t ready? I need to have my head examined.
I predict it will be the same with Sarah Palin. Once she enters the arena of ideas and competes and then is measured against the other contestants the majority of political pundits if they are honest with themselves will ask themselves the same question: how could I have been so wrong and how could so many American people missed it as well?
July 8th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Tommy,
Re: #23, I posted that data. There’s no need to redundantly include a write-up that says the same exact thing.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
bob, as I have said several times on here, I would definitely say I am ‘favorable’ toward Sarah Palin if asked by a pollster. If I were asked if I think she is ‘fit to be President’, I would definitely say ‘no’, at least right now. You are right, it is possible that she could get up to speed on things, but I would submit, we haven’t seen much, if any progress, thus far.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Aron,
Ok, just saw it. Don’t know why I missed it the first two times.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
That sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Yeah, that’s Palin alright.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Lawrence Phillips
Blair Thomas
Ki-Jana Carter
Curtis Enis
Ron Dayne
Now that’s a much more accurate Palin/top NFL draft pick analogy to work with…
July 8th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
#30:
You just made my point: it comes down to performance and execution and not to the perception of the pundits.
Sarah Palin will perform and execute. How do I know that? I had a front-row seat during the 2008 campaign. I know what I witnessed and so do millions more. She will be much better. How do i know that? Watching sports for umpteen years and knowing how experience enhances one’s future performance. As God made little green apples it is a law of nature.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Christie 46%
Corzine 39%
With Leaners
Christie 53%
Corzine 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor
July 8th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Let’s turn to baseball analogies.
Rick Ankiel
Josh Hamilton
If you follow baseball, you’ll get what I mean…
July 8th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Bob,
The correct interpretation of my analogy is the conclusion NFL GM’s came to ask: ‘How did I ever think that this back was worth wasting a top draft pick on? I need to have my head examined.’
Many conservative pundits this past week have asked themselves the same question about Palin.
Tommy,
Are you suggesting Sarah should get all tatted out and preach the words of Jesus on the campaign trail?
July 8th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
See, Corzine’s predictably pushed his favorables/unfavorables up to -3. Voters here will ultimately reinstall him and his millions.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
I agree with IlliniDude, If some pollster asked me today if I was favorably inclined towards Palin, I would say yes. If they asked me if I would vote today for her as President, I would say “definitely not”.
Tomorrow is another day.
July 8th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
I hope you’re wrong Matthew…work your tail off young man to get him out of office. You’e good with words. I wish we had you back working for Mitt.
July 8th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
I still say that Corzine wins.
July 8th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
#31:
bob, we’ve seen Palin perform for the equivalent of an NFL season. She performed like Ron Dayne on some days and Ryan Leaf on others (Katie Curic interview, in her resignation speech).
July 8th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
But Sarah wasn’t a highly touted back coming out of college. She was barely a freshman. When there was a vacancy, and she was put in the early games, she had flashes of great talent, but was predictably pancaked by numerous opponents for loss.
Understandable that she should want to regroup and not have to do her practicing with real opponents that want to kill her. Not being an elected official will give her a little breathing room and she can practice at 3/4 speed.
But whether she ever returns to the team, let alone to be its star, let alone the league MVP, not one of us know. Even if we knew what Sarah’s plans and intentions were, we have no idea if it will pan out.
I say exactly the same thing for Mitt and Mike, they are just a bit further down the path and so we have a little more track record on which to base our guesses.
Like sports, some of it depends on what happens to the person ahead of you on the depth chart. Some of it depends on what the defense is going to give you. (We think that the defense of 2012 is going to give us fiscal restraint and the economy/jobs. That would be good for Romney and the coach should put him in. We don’t think the defense is going to give us cultural issues in 2012, and that is not good for Huckabee and the coach should not put him in.)
July 8th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Republicans want to win in 2012 and they wont nominate someone who is seen as a sure loser in the general. She has her work cut out for her and if I had to guess, I would say Romney is in the drivers seat to win the nomination.