July 27, 2009

Poll Alter: Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire, 2010 Massachusetts Gov. Race

Deval Patrick hits record low approval rating.

Only a little more than 1/3 of Mass. voters approve of Deval Patrick’s performance as Governor.

                                   deval patrick

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Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and twitter/Kris_Lorelli.

by @ 12:09 pm. Filed under 2010, Poll Watch
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32 Responses to “Poll Alter: Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire, 2010 Massachusetts Gov. Race”

  1. Aron Goldman Says:

    GOP Primary
    Charlie Baker 27%
    Christy Mihos 20%
    Someone else 20%
    Don’t Know 33%

    General Election Match-Ups
    Tim Cahill (I) 30%
    Deval Patrick (D) 30%
    Charlie Baker (R) 20%

    Tim Cahill (I) 31%
    Deval Patrick (D) 31%
    Christy Mihos (R) 18%

    Charlie Baker (R) 41%
    Deval Patrick (D) 35%

    Christy Mihos (R) 41%
    Deval Patrick (D) 40%

    Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
    Tim Cahill 42% / 17% (+25%)
    Charlie Baker 16% / 14% (+2%)
    John Kerry 46% / 44% (+2%)
    Christy Mihos 26% / 38% (-12%)
    Deval Patrick 36% / 52% (-16%)

    Do you agree or disagree with the following statement … Deval Patrick has brought reform to Beacon Hill?

    Strongly agree 6%
    Somewhat agree 19%
    Somewhat disagree 21%
    Strongly disagree 41%

    Who do you trust more to handle the state’s economic and fiscal problems … Governor Patrick or the State Legislature?

    State Legislature 40%
    Governor Patrick 23%
    Neither 27%

    Democrats have controlled both the State Legislature and the Governor’s office for the past three years. Do you think it is better for the state to have a governor who comes from the same political party that controls the State Legislature, or do you think it is better to have a Governor from one political party and the State Legislature controlled by another?

    One party 28%
    Different party 46%

    Which candidate do you think can best handle the Massachusetts economy and budget crisis?

    Tim Cahill (I) 23%
    Deval Patrick (D) 21%
    Charlie Baker (R) 12%
    Christy Mihos (R) 10%

    Which candidate do you trust most on taxes?

    Tim Cahill (I) 19%
    Deval Patrick (D) 19%
    Charlie Baker (R) 14%
    Christy Mihos (R) 11%

    Which candidate do you think can best reform Massachusetts health care system?

    Deval Patrick (D) 22%
    Charlie Baker (R) 19%
    Tim Cahill (I) 11%
    Christy Mihos (R) 6%

    Regardless of who the candidate is, how likely is it that you would vote for an independent candidate for Governor, that is, someone who is not a Republican or Democrat?

    Very likely 24%
    Somewhat likely 39%
    Not very likely 11%
    Not likely at all 10%
    Depends 14%

    Overall, which of the following should be done to improve the state’s budget and fiscal problems … should the governor and the legislature do more to cut government programs, services, and spending, or should taxes and other revenues be raised?

    Cut programs 62%
    Raise taxes 23%

    As you may have heard, recently, the State Legislature passed, and Governor Patrick signed, a law that raised sales and other taxes in Massachusetts about $1 billion to avert deeper cuts in services. Do you approve or disapprove of the recent tax increases?

    Strongly approve 14%
    Somewhat approve 21%
    Somewhat disapprove 14%
    Strongly disapprove 47%

    Governor Patrick has recently proposed legal casino gambling, including slot machines, at three locations in Massachusetts. Supporters argue that this will bring in hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues to the State of Massachusetts while opponents argue that casinos will increase social problems from compulsive gambling. What about you … do you favor or oppose legalizing casino gambling in Massachusetts?

    Strongly favor 36%
    Somewhat favor 21%
    Somewhat oppose 9%
    Strongly oppose 27%

    If casino gambling were made legal in Massachusetts, which type of gambling facility would you prefer … two or three resort-style casinos in different parts of the state or slot parlors at horse and dog tracks?

    Resort casinos 60%
    Slots at tracks 12%
    Don’t want gambling 17%

    Governor Patrick has said that the zoos, like the rest of the government, need to make cuts because of the state’s budget problems. Zoo administrators have said that the proposed cuts would result in many animals having to be destroyed. Based on this information, and whatever else you have seen or heard about this issue, do you support or oppose the proposed cut to the zoos budget?

    Strongly support 10%
    Somewhat support 19%
    Somewhat oppose 15%
    Strongly oppose 44%

  2. OHIO JOE Says:

    It may not be very nice to say, but I’ll throw it out their anyways. I was a party last night and there was a young lady from Spain there. She said that because of the ‘disgusting’ antics of Mr. Zapatero, her whole country is the laughing stock of Europe, she said that we Americans were lucky to have, but a few ‘disgusting’ states like MA. Hopefully, Ma will be less of a laughing stock and an embarassment after they get rid of Mr. Patrick.

  3. Richard Murray Says:

    Hey, it’s wonderful that Gov Patrick’s approvals are in the tank, but the Rep still doesn’t get that close to 50%. There’s a lot of work to still be done in this race…

  4. Wade Says:

    Ohio Joe,

    What about MA makes it a “laughing stock” in your eyes? I’m from MA and would take this state over Ohio, any day of the week. Please site some statistics and sources to support your views of MA as well.

    Thanks.

  5. Aron Goldman Says:

    Gates 911 Call
    http://www.imeem.com/people/gvkl571/music/C1MUp6N8/gates-arrest-911-call/

    McCotter to introduce resolution for Obama apology
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/27/mccotter-introduce-resolution-obama-apology/?feat=home_headlines

  6. Aron Goldman Says:

    What about MA makes it a “laughing stock” in your eyes?

    Perhaps for a ‘Palinite’ like Joe, the fact that Massachusetts consistently ranks first in the nation in public school education.

  7. Kristofer Lorelli Says:

    Actually, Palin adopted some of the MA approach to education.

  8. OHIO JOE Says:

    Wade, you are a Blue state for starters, even Europeans recogize this.

    Well Aron, I am not overly concerned about the public schools in MA, but if MA is tops in education, that must be a new thing. When I first came to America, a friend of the family from back home also came to America (to study at the time) and when they just accepted her transcipts without making her take an entrance exam, she mother said she did not want to complain, but asked why. She was told that although the educational system is some states might be great, they trusted her transcripts because of country did not have Massachusetts in it. Hey again, that might have been harsh, but that is what she was told. BTW, yes there are a few rocket scientists in MA, but unless things have changed drastically, let’s just say their high scholl drop out rate is not the lowest in the country, so there is probably still room for improvement in MA’s educational system.

  9. Flip Dixon Says:

    The sad thing is that Patrick would have beaten Romney like a drum in 2006. That’s why Mittens decided not to run for a second term, a la Palin.

    If Mittens couldn’t even beat a second-rater like Patrick, what makes you think he can beat Obama?

  10. Tommy Boy Says:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/dga-chief-says-ignore-nj-polls-avoids.html

    Fivethirtyeight.com: According to Pollster.com’s tracking of the race, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine looks to be in serious trouble. What will it take for him to hold this seat, and do you think his bio as a former Goldman Sachs executive is hurting him?

    Nathan Daschle: Let me start with the last part of the question first. I don’t think his background is hurting him. To the contrary, Governor Corzine created the first economic recovery plan in the country. Things in New Jersey would be a lot worse if Governor Corzine wasn’t leading the state.

    The reason Jon Corzine is going to win is because he’s demonstrated that he can make difficult decisions that will put his state on the right path when this global recession is over. He is a real leader, not just a politician, and that will come through as this campaign gets closer to November. Governor Corzine knows how to handle this economy, he knows the types of decisions he needs to make.

    Chris Christie? He has no vision for the state. If you ask him questions about what he would do for New Jersey, he comes back with general statements of criticism about Governor Corzine. That’s not leadership. And I think the contrast on that count is stark and is one that voters will respond to.

    Christie started his campaign wanting to talk about one issue—ethics. He’s spent more of his time trying to defend his record on ethics, giving multi-million dollar no-bid contracts to political allies, campaign contributors and the prosecutor who didn’t go after his brother for stock fraud. The more voters learn about Chris Christie, the less they like him. And I think you’re seeing that in the increases in his unfavorables.

    I’m not gonna lie: I’d much rather be on the top than the bottom of these polls. But these polls in New Jersey have a history of being wrong.

    Early public polls in the state traditionally overstate support for Republicans. In 2004, two polls showed [John] Kerry down 4 points to [George] Bush, and many others showed a close race. Kerry won by 8. In 2005, when Governor Corzine first ran, late polling showed him up by only 4 points. He won by 10 points. In 2006, through late September, public polls showed [Tom] Kean leading [Robert] Menendez for the Senate. Menendez won by 8.

    We have to be cautious of early polling results in New Jersey.

  11. Right Says:

    Massachussetts suck. It’s up there with “Reagan is fucking awesome” as a core Republican belief.

  12. Wade Says:

    Ohio Joe,

    What does does being a “blue state” have to do with ANYTHING?

    What some “friend of the family” supposedly experienced (which is nothing more than a crude and stupid joke at the expense of MA) is not empirical evidence of anything.

    I’ll let Aron handle you on the “educational front” but you should know that Massachusetts’ high school drop out rate is lower than Ohio’s so if MA is a laughing stock than Ohio is THE laughing stock.

  13. aft Says:

    #9 That’s just spin, but that’s all you do. Late into the 2006 election Romney said he could enter then and still win. Also according to public polls in Massachusetts, Romney is considered a better governor than Deval, so there’s really nothing backing you up but opinion (again).

  14. Case Says:

    Flip, you should be a politician. You can twist absolutely any situation to be anti-Romney. So with those skills you could twist anything to work for what you want. Right now Obama is trying to twist his gaffe’s, he could use your help right about now since his twists just aren’t working.

  15. Tom in SoCal Says:

    Is there a phrase for negative coattails? Because it seems like we might see that in the house, senate and governorships over the next 1-2 years.

  16. Flip Dixon Says:

    #13, Romney’s favorables were in the toilet in late 2006 in MA. That’s not opinion, that’s what all the polls revealed.

    The idea that Mittens could have gotten into the race late and beaten Deval is ludicrous. Only Mitt and his Rom-bots could believe such a thing.

  17. Aron Goldman Says:

    I’ll let Aron handle you on the “educational front”

    Thank you, Wade. This ought to suffice.

    http://www.edweek.org/media/ew/qc/2008/18shr.ma.h27.pdf

  18. GetReal Says:

    16 – they went down after he announced he wasn’t seeking reelection. There’s also the little other thing in taking up a bit of his time that otherwise may have been devoted to seeking another term as governor, you know, that he was intending to RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

  19. Flip Dixon Says:

    #18, Romney was just unpopular. I think his favorables were down to the 30s by the time he left office. You can’t just attribute that to him not running for re-election.

    Bottom line: Romney was an unpopular governor, was more interested in running for Prez than running the state, and he wrecked his state fiscally with his Romneycare scheme.

    He makes Palin look good by comparison.

  20. GetReal Says:

    19 – Well, no he didn’t wreck his state fiscally with Romneycare. The general economic nosedive the nation has taken is what is wrecking Massachusetts fiscally.

    As to your second point, no surprise there. I don’t know why you always claim you prefer Romney to Palin or Huckabee. We know you prefer Huck first, Palin second, and Romney third of the three just from your comments.

  21. Flip Dixon Says:

    I think Romney is better than Huck/Palin, but not by much.

    I don’t think any of them can win.

    I am by no means a Romney supporter, although I would vote for him over Obama.

  22. nate Says:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/27/fox-news-poll-percent-disapprove-congress/

    2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
    Among Republicans, Palin is their third choice when read a list of potential candidates for the 2012 nomination. Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney takes the top spot (22 percent), though he bests former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee by just one point (21 percent). Palin receives the backing of 17 percent and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giluiani comes in at 13 percent. The remaining candidates receive single-digit support.

  23. Aron Goldman Says:

    Giuliani on health care
    Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani discusses President Barack Obama’s timetable to pass the health care reform, and whether it will hurt him. Says he may run for NY gov in 2010 or presidency in 2012.
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/32125793#32125793

  24. nate Says:

    12. I’m going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2012 Republican
    nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican
    presidential nominee. (RANDOMIZE LIST)
    21-22 Jul 09 12-13 May 09
    Republicans Republicans
    1. Mitt Romney 22% 18%
    2. Mike Huckabee 21 20
    3. Sarah Palin 17 13
    4. Rudy Giuliani 13 12
    5. Newt Gingrich 9 14
    6. Bobby Jindal 3 3
    7. Jeb Bush 1 3
    8. Tim Pawlenty 1 na
    9. Mark Sanford – 4
    10. (Someone else) 1 3
    11. (Too soon to say) 10 7

  25. OHIO JOE Says:

    “Thank you, Wade. This ought to suffice.” Unless, I am missing something, that does not address the drop out rate (which MA lags behind my state by a few points in 2001, 2003 and prelim. data for 2006.) Well, I guess, Mr. Romney must have done a good job with regards to education, because MA has pulled up its socks from the years of old.

  26. Kristofer Lorelli Says:

    #17, I guess that would explain why we have very few readers from LA, NM and MS. they cannot read or write. ;)

  27. Kristofer Lorelli Says:

    Avctually Mass was #1 back in 2003.

  28. Illinoisguy Says:

    #25 – I remember enlightening you on this once before’ did you forget already?

  29. OHIO JOE Says:

    No I did not entirely forget Illinoisguy. I remember you pointing out how MA’s education improved under Mr. Romney, I do not think that you have provided up to date statistics, but you did provide something. I believe that I also said that I did not care too much is some regards because let’s just say I do not believe in the Department of Education on a national level. On a side note, I am still not impressived with MA regardless of its current educational status so when Flip said that Mr. Romney is unpopular there, it is actually a feather in his cap.

  30. Kristofer Lorelli Says:

    Mitt maintained education standards.

  31. Ron Says:

    It looks as if an independent could actually win this race.

  32. Ray in KY Says:

    Tim Cahill is far from a Independent. He is a Democrat through and through and will run as a Indy only because Deval is running again and the Dems won’t allow anyone to run against him. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Cahill win and then re-declare as a Dem.

    I would love to see Ogonowski run for Governor on the GOP side. He has a great story and showed well running in a special house election just a year or two back.

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