A lot has been said lately about the idea that Sarah Palin is positioning herself as a the libertarian in the 2012 field – and I have been laughing…a lot. This is exactly I have been saying for months, and exactly how I have seen a potential Palin run shaping up for years (VP run or no VP run). So, now that we are seeing a lot more of the original, pre-McCain Sarah Palin, I think we need to take a step back and reevaluate where Sarah sits in the field. I’ve been thinking about this for a while, and I think that Palin’s actual trajectory is very different from what most observers are predicting. So, here are some things to keep in mind.
1. The Huckabee Myth: Sarah Palin is not, and has never been, competing for the same votes as Mike Huckabee. Huckabee’s message is focused on social/religious issues, and he is largely viewed as “compassionate conservative”. Yes, he has the Fair Tax, but that’s not his selling point. Sarah Palin is far more hard-core on fiscal issues, energy issues, etc. She can compete for Huck-leaning SoCons but they are not her base…
2. Palinistas = Fredheads: Now that we’ve addressed what the Palin base isn’t (Huckabeean SoCons) – let’s look at what it is. It should be lost on no one that Fred Thompson has aligned himself closely with Palin, that their views match closely, and that Fred has no intention of making a 2012 run. It’s not an exact match, but if we are trying to model a race, it is pretty safe to assume that Palin enters the race as the heir to Fred’s more libertarian base rather than a competitor to Huck.
3. The Rudy Factor: This is where the whole “Sarah the Libertarian” argument REALLY kicks in. Has anyone seen Hizzoner palling around with Mike Huckabee at a Yanks game? Mitt Romney? Okay, Mitt’s probably a Red Sox guy anyway – but you get the point. Rudy Giuliani feels a kinship with Sarah based on her experience as a mayor and a corruption buster – and he knew about the “libertarian Sarah” long before the punditry caught on. Should Rudy decide against running himself (likely in my opinion), then he becomes Sarah’s ace in the hole. His endorsement will likely seal the deal with the libertarian wing of the party - and one could argue that aligning the Rudy vote and the Fred vote could create quite a force. If anyone doubts that Palin can appeal to Rudy supporters, I would also point out that three of the biggest early Palin advocates (myself, Steve Maloney, Eric Dondero) were ALL backing Giuliani backers in 2008 (although Steve shifted to McCain near the end). The Palin movement was birthed out of the Giuliani base – and I still think we are well positioned to get that vote.
4. New Hampshire, Baby!: Everybody assumes that Sarah will be making her stand in Iowa and Iowa alone. I think that’s ridiculous. Palin will start with strong numbers in Iowa, but New Hampshire is her state. Alaska has a strongly libertarian electorate, has a lot of registered independents, and understands political analogies based on ice hockey. The same is true of new Hampshire – those are the voters Sarah knows, those are the voters who formed her Alaskan base, those are the voters she can win over, and those are the voters she should target. Furthermore, New Hampshire has one thing Iowa doesn’t, a large number of people who supported McCain in 2008. Not all of those people are going for Sarah, but they are all up for grabs – and given Mitt Romney’s potential for last-minute implosion, I like Sarah’s chances. Not that she shouldn’t try to win Iowa, but a dramatic win (or even a strong second) in New Hampshire would give her far more momentum.
So – that is my view of the brave new world of “Sarahtarianism” – which is really nothing more than the classic Sarah Palin finally emerging on the national stage. We’ll see just how libertarian she can get when we see her upcoming memoir Going Rogue, but I’m guessing that she will use that book to complete the transformation we’ve all been talking about.
Here’s to the future – because it’s looking great from this Palinista’s point of view.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Adam, in response to your third point…funny you should mention that.
http://i.usatoday.net/news/_photos/2007/10/26/romney-giuliani-topper.jpg
September 29th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Wrong, Wrong, Wrong. Sorry, but Sarah is the person who got Dobson et. al. to hold their noses to vote for McCain.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
BTW, It seems that your Huckabee vision is a ‘divide and conquer’ rathar than appeal to all voters with good solid ideas and principles. That is a losing strategy if ever I saw one.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Okay…I was half-right. Mitt is indeed a Red Sox fan!
That said – I still say Rudy goes Palin.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
2) Huck people like Sarah – but they aren’t voting for her. Huck people are for Huck – I know a number of them – you’re not getting them to give it up.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
3) Sarah has solid ideas, and I think they appeal to a broad range on Republicans (note my postulated Rudy-Fred axis – that’s a BIG coalition). That said, horserace politics requires strategy – this is a strategy post.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
What’s going on with Intrade?
September 29th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Just FYI one her book……its already top 10 sellers on both amazon(9th) and Barnes and Noble(1st.)
you can pre-order at:
http://www.amazon.com/Going-Rogue-American-Sarah-Palin/dp/0061939897
and
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Going-Rogue/Sarah-Palin/e/9780061939891/?cds2Pid=30010&linkid=1474232
Go Sarah
September 29th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
Another thing, I like Giuliani too, but the mythical Giuliani supporters simply did not materialize during the primary. He finished a distant 4th in New Hampshire with just 9%, and after pouring his last penny into Florida, he only finished a distant 3rd with 15%, and that is probably because of all the snowbirds from New York. In any case, it should be recognized that Fred Thompson voters are most likely to move to Palin while Giuliani people (the few that there are) will move towards Romney in my opinion.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
I like Sarah a lot. That said however, she has an uphill battle changing her image (to those not paying attention, which is almost everybody) from an evangelical conservative to a libratarian. The one thing that will make me lose ALL respect for her is if she went third party as her new “rogue” position would encourage.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
8 )
I didn’t say Rudy had a huge base – I’m not sure he did. Though, gauging support based on final showing is ridiculous. Those numbers are a snapshot of the race on one day in on state. At one point, both Rudy and Fred were leading the pack – the problem there was strategy not policy. Mitt, McCain, and Huck put all of their chips on either Iowa (Huck), NH (Mac), or both (Mitt). Giuliani’s problem was his Florida gambit and Fred’s was his lack of desire – both could have been nominated and put together their bases are formidable.
That being said, I think Rudy people are currently sitting grudgingly in Mitt’s corner for lack of a better choice. I think they will actually move away from Mitt and toward Sarah when they see the tough, hard-charging, libertarian leadership that they saw in Rudy. Again, I also think Rudy himself will be on the trail foor Palin.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
I think that you underestimate Huckabee by putting him in the social/religious box. If that were the case, his show would not be #1. Huckabee has been a strong advocate against all of the spending. He is a strong advocate for education, including home schooling and vouchers. He is a strong advocate for Israel and is very knowledgeable on the whole middle east crisis.
The MSM and Foxnews included did a good job of boxing Huckabee in and not allowing him to talk about issues that he was successful on in his state. I think you will find in 2012 that he will be able to expand his base because he is in charge of his own message now.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
9)
Sarah’s not that stupid
September 29th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
11) Your point is well taken – but I said social/religious focus not social/religious box. Israel is a huge issue to me, but it has social implications, as does education. And his economic policy is okay even if his record is not so stellar on taxes. That said, Huck is going to want to talk about those more socially focussed issues if he gets the choice, whereas Sarah will want to talk about shrinking government and drilling for oil.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Adam,
10. Tough, hard-charging leaders don’t quit with 18 months left.
13. Hucks ‘economic policy’ (snicker) is populism, populism, populism. So is Sarahs in many ways.
Now that we’re seeing the original, pre-McCain Palin? Does that mean she’s going to have to explain a lot of flip-flops? I think so. There’s plenty.
Let’s face it, Sarah talked out of both sides of the mouth on the stimulus. She does not have a great fiscal record. She was late to the party on pork.
I do think she shares more voters than you realize with Huck fans. As far as Fred and Rudy, I don’t think the endorsements will matter a hill of beans, and neither had that many followers.
I think Palin takes votes from both Huck and Romney. But the number of GOPers who think she should be POTUS is very small according to the polls. We’ll see if that changes.
Palin is a personality more than anything else. That’s a benefit, and a problem at the same time. Too much potential for screw ups.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
12. Let’s hope not, but she has an ego the size of Alaska.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Huckabee has only talked about social issues on his show when it pertains to something going on with Obama and with congress. He has talked about the “key issues of the day” on his show: spending, the economy, Iran, Israel, Afghanistan. If you go back and listen to Huckabee’s Value Voter speech, he made it clear that he was focusing on the key economic/defense issues, although he did talk more about LIFE than Romney did.
And I agree that Huckabee supporters will stay Huckabee supporters. They liked Palin a lot during the general election, and helped volunteer and make the calls (myself included). But they like Huckabee’s 10 1/2 years as governor and they like how he comes out boldly on issues that others won’t talk about.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
2. Joseph is right. The moment Sarah stepped on the stage, Huck’s popularity disappeared. He has regained a lot of it, with his show, etc. but Palin took a big chunk. All you have to do is go back and read the news from that time. Sarah was the new “one of us” candidate. (Queen Esther, blah, blah, blah.) A lot of religious comments were everywhere.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
16. I don’t listen to Huck at all, but what issues does he talk about that no one else is?
September 29th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Texas,
Huck’s values voters speech was chock full of religious references. That is still his schtick, and always will be. I realize he’s trying to beef up his credibility on the other issues – mostly because he really took a hit on them in 08.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
14)
Martha – you and I are just going to have to agree to disagree. We have a totally different view of Sarah Palin – yours based on what you see in the media and a belief that public opinion is static (which I admit is a defensible position), mine based on two solid years of deep research and an analysis that leads me to conclude that the trends look good for future advancement. I might also note that I actually think low popularity is to be expected at this juncture, and I would actaully note that I prefer to see lower numbers now.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
“I might also note that I actually think low popularity is to be expected at this juncture, and I would actaully note that I prefer to see lower numbers now.”
I’m glad you like them low….so do I…and hope they stay there forever.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Brickley,
Post the links I provided at the end of Lorelli’s thread about neoconservativism.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Adam:
Your analysis is interesting. As a Rudyite, I’m neutral right now, but among the Big Three, I’d, like you said, grudgingly go for Romney if given no other choice. However, if Palin keeps talking sounding the right notes on foreign policy, and proves she can win, I could see myself and other Rudyites go to Palin.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
By the way, SurveyUSA has McDonnell up 55-41 on Deeds.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9db323a1-0c9c-4a39-887c-c504bc80fb06
September 29th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
I realize that Huckabee and Palin have some of the same following, but don’t forget that the polls show that Palin does not do well with Christian voters, nor does she do well with those with more than a high school education…..so there are some obvious differences.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
Texas,
Huck’s greatest strength seems to be his appeal to non-political voters, the types that don’t seem to care too much about what’s going on in politics. There are plenty of these types among my circle of friends/colleagues and they all seem to love Huckabee despite the fact they wouldn’t agree with him on much of anything. I suppose one explanation as that they don’t care about political differences on issues because they don’t really care about politics generally.
I was talking to one of these non-political family member today and he thought Huckabee was the only one who could beat Obama straight up (he thought Romney would need an economic calamity and Palin would need a foreign policy catastrophe, with the reasonsing being she could rally people around the flag against Obama in the same way Bush rallied those firefighters). He’d vote for Huckabee in a second in a general election but the problem for Huck is, that he’d never stand in line for the guy in a Washington caucus. Primaries and caucuses pretty much only attract somewhat politically motivated voters.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
I hope Sarah Palin will run for President in 2012. She is a true conservative. Rudy, Romney, and Huckabee won’t get the nominee in 2012. They are done!
September 29th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
22)
I don’t take orders on what I put in my posts.
That said – anyone who wants to can find the Alaska budget online without my help. Your analysis is disengenous – the growth of government slowed dramatically under Palin. If I recall, the average growth of governement per year in the Murkowski administration was something like 12%. Under Palin it dropped to 4% – with no help from the big spending legislature. Now – go look at the capital budget and then we’ll talk.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
Brickley,
Just offered a suggestion. No offense intended. Forgot to put a “please.”
September 29th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
Sorry but Palin can’t be the neocon candidate and the libertarian candidate.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
Ugh, I hope she’s not running. I’d like to have a shot in 2012 and she’s had her chance.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
#31:
She can quite easily. Palin just has to position herself as a libertarian on social issues and a neocon on foreign policy. Rudy and McCain voters could rally behind such a candidate.
September 29th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
33)
A little different take: libertarian on fiscal policy, NeoCon on defense, socially concservative but no obnoxious on social policy (otherwise known as a “three-legged stool conservative”)
30)
Apologies if I was a bit snippy – I porobably should go to bed anyway – mignight blogging always leads to one or two sleep-deprived moments
September 29th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
No problem bro.
I need to go put a couple more bids into Intrade to skew the betting even more
September 29th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
35)
haha – you’re a naughty, naughty boy
September 29th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
Here’s to you Adam. You are the man. America owes you so much.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Anyone honestly hoping for Palin to be our nominee cannot be taken seriously.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Great analysis Adam. Fred revolutionized the use of You Tube and the world wide web and innovated a lot of what the campaigns of the future might look like. Governor Palin has revolutionized the social networking for politics and is constantly making news out of her twitter and face book. You might say that Fred was sort of the “John the Baptist” to Sarah’s “Messiah” (just a metaphor, not literal) or the “Goldwater” to Sarah’s “Reagan.” It will be interesting to see Fred and Jeri harness some of the innovation from Fred’s revolutionary 2008 campaign for Sarah’s 2012 run, I could definitely see Fred and Rudy barnstorming the country on her behalf.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:13 pm
#38:
Millions of Americans by your view must be frivolous and irresponsible if they support Palin.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
The only poll that I’ve seen in New Hampshire showed Mitt with over 50% of the vote, and if I recall correctly, Palin had something like 17%. So it would appear that she has a lot of ground to make up if your prediction that she can win NH is to come to pass: but I have to admit that you’ve got the positive thinking part down.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:23 pm
JA Pruce,
If Fred has aligned himself so closely with Sarah, why was he asking Pawlenty to run?? And if Fred’s campaign was so “revolutionary” why didn’t he win anywhere? Why didn’t he come CLOSE to winning anywhere?? I liked Fred and Rudy, but it would be difficult to figure out which of the 2 ran the lousier campaign. Also, why not wait until one of them endorses Sarah to posit that they are actually FOR Sarah. Frankly, I doubt either one ever will.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
#41:
New Hampshire voters hate being told who they are going to vote for. They may very well vote for the candidate in 2nd or 3rd place just because the pundits say something different.
Now, if Palin were to win New Hampshire, it would be a game-changing victory. A Palin NH win would most likely end Romney’s candidacy (losing to McCain in NH is understandable, not to Palin). She could then use her momentum to end Huckabee’s challenge in South Carolina and mop up whatever opposition is left by Super Tuesday.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Dave,
Fred got in too late. It was a high stakes strategic risk but it didn’t pay off to wait so long to organize. Had he gotten earlier he would have likely won as he was the one candidate who unified all of the GOP constituencies. Governor Palin might turn out to be the unifying candidate in 2012.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Sarah will win Iowa, lose barely to Romney in NH, then win in South Carolina. She’ll win the west, split the south and win most of the midwest. I don’t think it will be close in the GOP primary once you add it up.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:01 am
Why isn’t there any mention of Sarah in the general election against Obama?
Collectively as a party that should be our one goal, electing someone who can beat Obama. Period.
I don’t see Sarah doing that, she is just too partisan and is a polarizing figure. Plus I don’t think she has the erudite gravitas to go up against Obama who will have had 3 plus years of the presidency under his belt.
Sarah doesn’t have the quick, think on your feet intelligence needed to go up against Obama’s cult of personality ego. She won’t be able to handle him in the debates. I fear she would fall back on her platitudes just to get thru all of the debates.
She is much better (and effective) taking shots at him on Facebook, Twitter and in op-ed pieces, where she has time to think out what she wants to say and has someone helping her with what to write.
The Republican Party would be much better off if Sarah became a media mogul for awhile to help frame and strenghten the party’s platform before jumping back into national politics.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:19 am
Jonathan,
We’re more than 3 years away from the New Hampshire primary, so anything can obviously happen. But when Mitt wins a hypothetical matchup against the field by the kind of margin he won by recently, it would take quite a switch for Sarah, or anybody else for that matter, to win in the state against Mitt.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:20 am
sheryl:
If you are a NFL football fan no team plays for the Super Bowl but to get to the conference championship, and to get to the conference championship it does not matter what transpires in the other conference.
The same with the GOP primaries. Obama does not matter at this point. All that matters is you beat the other GOP contenders and then go from there.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:24 am
JA Pruce,
Sarah could, theoretically, be a unifier of the party, but first she would have to start doing better in national polls against Obama than she has to date. Romney and Huckabee are both doing better against him than she is, and Republicans will want to win come 2012 even more than they do now. They will be more likely to unify around somebody who can actually beat Obama.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:32 am
#49:
That is why the 2010 midterms are so important: it is Sarah’s chance to prove that she has leadership skills and the political ability to convince masses of voters to vote GOP.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:48 am
Bob,
I’m not a NFL football fan, but I think coaches/teams strategically map out a way to get to the Super Bowl.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:43 am
There is one HUGE mistake in the analysis of this piece Gulianin NEVER had the libertarians. How can libertarians support you when u are pro gun control and pro war. Guliani is moderate and only a fiscal conservative. Therefore Palin will NOT get Guliani voters. Also Palin has never truly stated her policy positions and she never even completed one term in office.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:10 am
It sounds like Palin is going to be whatever you guys want her to be. She can’t be a Libertarian, conservative, neo-con, a Populist,and a Christian Right, she has to pick one, can’t be all of those things. You better wait to see what her book is like, since it was written by Lynn Vincent, Evangelical writer and Editor of the Evangelical World Magazine.
Watch Huckabee, it will be interesting to see what he says about Palin, if he feels threatened. Watch for subtleties.
If Palin runs, she’s gonna need millions & millions of dollars & an organization, fundraisers, State support, lots and lots of network interviews, how is she working to bring this about and get ready, she has to start soon, plus she is going to have to go beyond Facebook friends and twitter. Most people don’t read blogs and Facebook or even get their news from cable.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:26 am
#40, are you saying that’s not the case? Nearly every single American voter is irresponsible, especially someone who genuinely believes that Palin is presidential timber.
Certainly only an irresponsible REPUBLICAN would want her to get nominated, since she has none, absolutely NO chance of beating Obama. Those debates would be like watching Reagan debate Susan Sarandon.
Obama either man-handled or tied McCain, a well-seasoned statesman, in every debate. Palin would get decimated.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:58 am
Palin probably wouldn’t even carry her State. She resigned her Governorship during the worst Recession in 70 years leaving the tough decision making to the Lt.Governor..that is the worst, people will question that decision, that will be used against her, plus she took the stimulus money of $750 million after saying she wasn’t going to take it.
Her resignation came just in time to sign a $11 million book deal, and hire a Public Relations firm to start booking $300,000 speeches.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:02 am
So Palin is in line to inherit Thompson and Guilliani’s combined 1 delegate.
Stop it you are killing me!
September 30th, 2009 at 6:55 am
Palin will look at how much the gig pays and back off. She’s only after money now, nothing more. AND should the america people in the far right GOP have a stupid attack and nominate her. So many will sit out that Obama will landslide into a second term.
Reality bites, eh?
September 30th, 2009 at 7:03 am
Adam, we know you push Palin, but you need to take off the Rosey glasses and actually do some reseach on this woman. She’s not what she wants YOU to think she is. Alaska is a mess right now. She resigned to chase the cash, and to dump the problem she had in AK on someone else. What ARE her ‘policy’s? other than the soundbite ‘drill baby drill’? Did you not see her debating Biden? What should have been a cake walk for most politicans, turned into a train wreck for the GOP. She brags about her 6 yr degree in Journalsim, yet cant even get through a interview with Couric or Gibson. another cakewalks for someone who actually has active brain cells. Heck, I can rattle off what I read everyday, and not even think it’s a gotcha question. She wants the gig without the work involved. That’s clear. She wants the paycheck without having to put any effort into it. She’s had the free ride up to now, but exactly WHAT are her policy’s again? It’s pretty sad when Huckabee has a better track record than Palin does. But you just keep pushing her on to us. Obama will cream her.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:06 am
Tin Tin. If Biden was able to take her down (and he did, winky kissie don’t answer the question, Sarah), then Obama will just cream her in any debate. It won’t be like, as someone said, Reagan debating Susan Surandan. It would be like Reagan debating Miss Piggy.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:09 am
I got this great idea. Lets’ run the candidate with the fewest skelletons in the closet, waiting to come out!
That would be romney,folks.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:21 am
Found this. OK, it’s the NY Post, but it’s out there.
http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/sarah_lectures_tough_sell_Z6eKRnldUitBmiOfXCBjlI
September 30th, 2009 at 7:42 am
Knickers, you may want to take the Dale Carnegie course on “How to Win Friends and Influence People”.
Continuously kicking them in the teeth doesn’t gain a lot of converts. Relate it to serving a mission in the church. How many converts do you get by bashing other churches? Pretty much zilch!
September 30th, 2009 at 7:52 am
Come 2012 we will see the “sleeping giant” at the primary polls for the first time. They will be well informed and determined to be involved helping the candidate of their choice. So who can get the grass roots?
I was at a meeting yesterday for a start up candidate for the state gop. They said that in our area only 2.5 percent of the people vote in the primaries. So they determine the general election status. The sleeping giant has not liked that Washington/MSM have picked their candidate for the last decade. They now want a say.
Some of these people admitted that they crossed over to vote for Hillary to stop Obama and helped Rush with his operation chaos. Look for that to happen in spades with the democrats in 2012.
Again, at this meeting, they talked about the republican party and the money and power they use to keep rino’s and help in certain states. They talked about how the grass roots will determine the next outcome.
People are getting educated, and early, and will be getting family/friends/neighbors to vote for their guy.
Which candidate can do the best at this? Which candidate is going to rely on the beltway/money/power structure to help get the vote?
September 30th, 2009 at 8:01 am
Based on what Sarah has accomplished and the enthusiam she has generated, I predict she will take Evengelical voters in Iowa, leaving Huckabee in a strong second place. She will take independents and pro family voters in New Hamphire leaving Romney in a second place. Her momentum will explode in South Carolina where she will get a BLOW OUT. Game over, see how the rest start to drop out. Romney will take only Michigan, Utah and Massachussets. Huckabee takes Arkansas. Palin takes 39 primaries.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:04 am
Sarah will take all Obama tricks down: Race card, sex card, youth card, historic run card
September 30th, 2009 at 8:08 am
If you believe that Carmelo, you can get 4.5 to 1 on your money at intrade.com right now!
September 30th, 2009 at 8:10 am
Carmelo. In your dreams, Junior. She will toss him her first winky kissy and she’s toast.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:12 am
53 – lkv, your comments have really turned into something Martha and/or knickers would write. You claim she cannot be all of those things but you tend to forget that Reagan was exactly that. I’ve been comparing her to Reagan since her announcement speech and there are some similarities.
You claim her book was completely written by Lynn Vincent, yet you provide NO PROOF for such a claim. From everything I have read, Lynn Vincent worked with Palin as an editor would work with any other first time author.
You claim she has to get to work soon and I’m sure her book tour will give her the catapult to start exactly what you say she needs to do.
You claim that most people don’t read blogs and Facebook or even get their news from cable. I’d somewhat agree with some of this statement. You’re right most people probably do not read blogs, a good amount of people are on FACEBOOK…I wouldn’t say most but they have a good amount of people but that is irrelevant if they are not FRIENDS of hers. BUT A LOT of people do get their news from cable.
Again, BUT let’s assume you are right. Since the MSM and a good portion of the blogosphere and 2 of the 3 cable news outlets do not care for Palin then I would say that it is all in her favor. If she does a book tour and every major show wants her on…she gets a chance to reintroduce herself to the American public. Maybe she’ll debut on Letterman giving him the highest ratings he ever had and her the opportunity to appeal to a new electorate.
Am I saying this will definitely happen…NO, but it could and it doesn’t seem all that unlikely.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:14 am
Carmelo. Accomplishemts? In what respect, Carmelo?
September 30th, 2009 at 8:15 am
knickers, didn’t you say you lived in Oregon…why are you up at 4 in the morning?
September 30th, 2009 at 8:16 am
Agreed Ill guy. But sometimes facts are not the greatest things to have to face up to!
And this is not church. It’s politics.
Hope your doing well!
September 30th, 2009 at 8:19 am
Knickers, you don’t use facts. You pervert facts. You have a talent at making rumors sound like facts but you do not use facts.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:24 am
I live in Utah. And it’s past in the am here. I do get up at 5:30 each am to get what I want to get done, done. I think Martha lives in Oregon.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:28 am
What facts did I distort? Humm?
Fact. Palin QUIT to chase cash.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:35 am
BUT, I’m a native Californian, if that helps ya, Jersey. Transplanted to Utah for economic reasons, and I perfer to have my kids here than there. (although we do visit there now and then). Also have had the advantage of living pretty much everywhere from the east coast to the west coast, to Europe and beyond. I have a world view because I’ve been around in the world! I’m 52 and my youngest baby is turning 5 before Thanksgiving. (and she’s NOT a grandchild, and I’m not a grandmother!) I’m actually a very nice person, who just happens to think that Palin is not suited for the presidency at all. I you want her, fine. Take her. But I will work harder just to ensure she does not get the nomination, and someone who will actually DO the job does.
September 30th, 2009 at 8:47 am
73 – just wondering…if I get up before 7 I am useless for the day.
74 – can you prove that Palin quit for cash? Do you have any links, with credible information, to validate your opinion you attempt to sell as fact? Hmmm?
75 – I am sure you are a very nice person, I would never assume otherwise. I do think that you are possibly not a Republican though, but I have no proof of that and I guess I’ll have to take you at your word but I do reserve the right to accuse.
Have a nice day!
September 30th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Adam, I do agree with you on many points. Firstly, I appreciate that someone understands the difference between “like” and “support” — many of Huck supporters who are strong social conservatives like Palin, but are not leaving Huck for her. Huck’s people, as you say, are staying with Huck. Secondly, I do agree that many of Fred’s support base have probably gone toward Palin. What I disagree with is your analysis of Guiliani. I was a STRONG Guiliani supporter through all of his mayoral races and senatorial race from which he dropped out. I was a fervant supporter of Mayor Guiliani for eight years. If he had been on the ballot in NY on Super Tuesday, he would have easily gotten my vote. I see no comparison between him and Palin. Perhaps some Guiliani supporters do, but don’t automatically assume she has his base. Many NYC voters have a strong dislike of Palin. As it was, I ended up voting for McCain, but next time around Huckabee gets my vote if he is in the race — otherwise, probably Romney.
And I strongly disagree that Huckabee is a religious or regional candidate. In just the last week, I have found five New Yorkers (in Brooklyn and Staten Island) who strongly supported Guiliani, are not social conservatives, but have grown to admire Mike Huckabee, primarily based on his FOX exposure. I think too many bloggers do not get out of the blogging circle. Try talking to non-political people who in the end will ultimately decide an election when campaigning officially begins. That is what I have been doing, and I am pleased thus far with the results.
But, of course, I am admittedly a Huckabee supporter.
September 30th, 2009 at 9:57 am
Palinistas = Fredheads
WOW, just…. WOW. I dunno if I’m alone in this, but that’s about the most ridiculous thing I could’ve read here.
September 30th, 2009 at 9:57 am
#27 – Tommy Boy, I agree with you on a point you have made serveral times (and so have I) — Huckabee’s greatest strength (other than the social conservative base) lies with non-political people — and that is especially true in the general election. Granted, they for the most part will not stand in a caucus –other than in Iowa (they will stand for days in Iowa for their guy) — so I do not predict Huckabee taking the western caucuses that went to Romney the last time. They will either go to Romney again (as I suspect) or, to the extent Palin has strong support in those states, perhaps to her. But they WILL go to primaries — firstly, I believe this time most of the religious right will come behind Huckabee and he will have an even stronger showing with the social conservative base than he had in 2008 (do not minimize their support or casually give it away to Palin). Iowa and the south go to Huckabee. But more importantly, I predict non-political peoeple will participate in the primaries in 2012 in a strong showing — and they will vote based on who is doing best in the general election — and who has the best chance of beating Obama straight up. Time will tell.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:35 am
78 – at least online, it seems to be the case for the most part. Of course not everyone who supported Fred is going to support the same person this time, but look at American Thinker, Fredstate and the Hotair comment section, former Fredhead havens turned Palin echo chambers.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Caribou barbie is the best GOP choice for Pres. You run with that.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Giuliani was originally the moderate candidate in 2008 but ended up being the candidate of libertarians. I can see his voters moving to Palin, as do Thompson’s. Huckabee’s voters will clearly back their man again if he runs. McCain, who ultimately was the moderate candidate, will see his voters shift to Romney. If Huckabee is not knocked out we could then see a replay of 1964 with Romney reprising the Rockefeller role, if a bit more conservative, trying (along with most of the GOP elite and intellectual establishment)to stop Palin. She then becomes the candidate of the conservative grassroots a la Goldwater in that year, and as Dean would have been for the Democrats had he beaten Kerry in 2004. She better hope she does a bit better than Barry in the general though!
September 30th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
#82, LOL, now she’s Goldwater.
Which conservative legend is next for her to channel?
September 30th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Haha Get Real, I was never officially a Fred-Head, but I do give to Fred PAC occationally.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Palin will win if she runs. Mittens is an empty suit flip flopper and The Huckster is not a serious candidate. Neither can win the GOP nomination. They couldn’t even beat Mccain. Palin is the only candidate who can reassemble the so-called three-legged Republican stool on which Reagan ran. I don’t see any of these other jokers standing up to Obama now. Palin is leading the charge against him on health care and cap and trade. Obama is ignoring everyone other than Palin because they pose no threat to him at all. Mittens is running around doing speeches in front of infinitesimal groups of country club Republicans. He can be her Treasury Secretary, although I would prefer someone who is a bit more economcally conservative. Steve Forbes would be my first choice there. Mitt can play around with his family fortune, perhaps join John Kerry when he windsurfs off Martha’s Vineyard since he is the Republican John Kerry.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
I’d be surprised if Palin conceded any state to anyone. I see her waging a 50 state campaign. She’ll be able to mobilize a multitude of GOTV volunteers in every state. She will out organize, out fundraise, and campaign rings around any and all comers.
When Romney campaigned for McDonnell a few weeks ago in VA, he drew a crowd of DOZENS. When he campaigned for Christie in NJ he drew FIFTY. Palin, if asked to campaign for either of them, would draw thousands, and even tens of thousands. Her ability to draw huge crowds will definately be a huge psychological advantage for her, and a huge obsticle for the others. Imagine yourself as Romney, Huckabee, etc., standing there in a park talking to 100-200 people at most, when in the same state Palin is filling an arena with 10,000 or 20,000 wildly enthusiastic supporters.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Greg,
I have been to a rally for Huckabee. He drew thousands. I have been to a dinner for Huckabee-the event sat 1000 and it was full. While I agree with you that Palin will bring thousands to her events, so will Huckabee.
I remember reading some posts from those at Politico and they said that Huckabee had the biggest, most enthusiastic crowds. Given that Huckabee did not have any campaign staff in those states, he was still able to draw thousands at the last minute with only an update on his website. It wasn’t like Hannity or Rush were promoting his events.
Palin may have the biggest crowds, but Huckabee will have a close second.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
They both told her ‘thanks, but no thanks’ greg.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Nobody has mentioned the Ron Paul Revolution. Palin will surely pick up the fiscal side of that, though she may scare away the non-interventionist gang.
As far as the notion that Obama will clean her clock in debates, remember that Obama is useless without his teleprompter, while Palin seldom uses one. She’s much better on her feet than he is. Additionally, he is scared sh!t of her. She makes a Facebook post and he goes on national TV to refute her. She makes a WSJ Op-Ed and he goes before a joint session of Congress to call her a liar. She is a hunter, circling Obama from upwind. He doesn’t know where the next potshot is coming from. Meanwhile, thanks to her, Obamacare is facing the death panel.
Nobody in the GOP wields that kind of power.
September 30th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
[...] people listen. Here’s to hoping that the book promotes more “Sarahtarianism”, as explained by Adam Brickley! by Anthony Dalke @ 7:03 pm. Filed under Sarah Palin [Comments [...]
October 1st, 2009 at 11:41 am
90 – Obamacare was not exactly popular with the public prior to the Facebook article. She helped, but I wouldn’t give her total credit for taking it down.
October 1st, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Huck ain’t running. He’s angling for a position with Palin’s campaign: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCp8BK5AcTk&feature=channel_page (from July 2009–go to the 5-minute point for the meat)
And to Texasconserv @ 88: “Huckabee draws his thousands, and Palin her ten thousands.” (Some of you will recognize that.)
October 4th, 2009 at 7:10 am
Too much of your political analysis!!Let us face the fact, from the silent majority.
1. First, I want point out why GOP lost in the last election. Before MCCain chose Palin, BHO is leading huge by 55% to 45%. When Palin was chosen to be the VP nomimee, GOP ticket suddenly lead by 3 points. Democrats did a very effective strategy in tearing down Palin, those interviews and smear campaigns against the GUV. Who will win this kind of election if those MSM elite are PRO Obama even before BHO was chosen a candidate? Way back in 2006, they are already talking about a BHO run then?? When McCain picked Palin and she had energized the base and some independents like were impressed, The democrats began to tremble, and did anything just to discredit thi good governor. The economic meltdown was good strategy by the democrats and GOP campaign team do not have anything to counter punch this. DID YOU KNOW THAT IT WAS BILL CLINTON TIME WHEN FREE TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND STATES HAD STARTED? IT WAS CLINTON TIME WHEN USA STARTED TO OUTSOURCE LABOR FROM CHINA AND THIS IS THE STARING POINT OF WHAT ECONOMIC RECESSION IS TODAY.
2. Sarah Palin maybe the real and last hope for American people, as per her records, she is a true conservative with common sense and a fiscal conservative and expert on energy issues. What about Huckabee, Romney and others? They are just TRAPOS (tradional elite politicians) who want your vote and will forget you when get elected. These persons are just flip-floppers and can sacrifice their moral convictions just to get votes.
3. Huckabee, Mitt and others will lose big time against Obama. If GOP wants to get back the white house, they have to think many time, just use common senses, guys! Why in the hell, they are still tearing down Palin? The answer is simple: She is the only GOP force that can take down BHO.