A couple of Republican mandarins, Mike Murphy and David Brooks, went on Meet the Press this weekend. Sarah Palin came up, as she often does. Brooks promised to “eat his hat” if she won the Republican nomination and, in the following clip, Mike Murphy agreed:
Now, regardless of what you think of how Sarah Palin would play in a general election, this blaise attitude towards Palin’s prospects in the primaries seems incredible to me. Palin has given two national interviews which can only be called disasters. She’s been mocked ruthlessly by Saturday Night Live, David Letterman, and every non-Fox television personality worth speaking of. She resigned her governorship, with the feeblest of explanations, 31 months into her first term. And still she has the highest favorables among conservatives; still she can drive a revolt against national policy from her facebook page; still she can get herself on the top of a best-seller the day it’s announced. She’s indisputably better liked, among Republicans, than the putative front-runner, Mitt Romney. It may well be that something will happen to erode her appeal to Republicans, but wouldn’t a reasonable analysis wait for, like, any sign that this is happening?
As much as I like Palin, I’m pretty obviously not a Palin supporter. Still, there’s something almost surreal about the comments of men like Murphy and Brooks. Sarah has her fans, they admit, but insist that this group can’t win her the nomination. They literally laugh at the possibility. But, again, where is the evidence? If such a sizable portion of the Republican electorate still likes and listens to Palin- after all of the negative press- doesn’t this suggest that she has more than a few vocal fans? I’m not convinced Sarah Palin will win the Republican nomination. I’m not even sure she’ll run. But, I am sure that the Republican establishment couldn’t find milk on a dairy farm. I just hope these aren’t the fellas doling out advice to whoever does become our nominee.
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Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com or at his Pawlentyesque blog
October 5th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
The Palin Wars: Part LXII
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/the-palin-wars-part-lxii.html?hpid=news-col-blog
October 5th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Palin’s Book is a Homerun, Nuff said
October 5th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
I like Sarah, but the idea of her actually getting the nomination is fatuous on its face. She consistently does worse in hypothetical head-to heads against Obama than either Romney or Huckabee, and the reason isn’t that people don’t like her, which is irrelevant in any regard: It’s because she’s not presidential. Nobody would sleep better at night knowing she was the president of the country.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Interesting to note that almost no one knows or cares who Mike Murphy or David Brooks are. They could walk down the street carrying a sign saying “I’m Mike Murphy” or “I’m David Brooks,” and still no one would care. Palin drew 20,000+ to Auburn NY, deep inside 0bama territory, what other republican could do that? Palin’s book is #1 at Amazon, #1 at Borders, #1 at Books a Million, and #2 at Barnes and Noble. Where is Romney’s upcoming book, No Apologies: the Case for American Greatness, #303,688 at Amazon, having dropped from 54,000 just a few days ago. How many did Romney draw to a rally in Virginia a couple of weeks ago in support of McDonnell, “a crowd of dozens.” How many did he draw for his rally in NJ for Christie, 50, that’s right FIFTY.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
“She’s indisputably better liked, among Republicans, than the putative front-runner, Mitt Romney.”
…and yet she almost always trails, if not both of her potential rivals, Romney. Despite unquestionable Conservative credentials, depite her most likely competition being a [relatively recent] convert to Conservativism and a controversial minister, she often has trouble making it out of third place.
As with Rudy Giuliani, for Palin, popularity does not always translate into support.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Greg-Romney’s book doesn’t even come out til next year so how could it even be on a list? If you want a rockstar then Obama and Palin are the people for you, if you want an actual President then perhaps you’ll look elsewhere.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
like palin alot, but she is too far right to win the general. she should continue to earn some $$$ then do a senate run , she if she cant rebuild her image and then go for potus.
what would be ideal is if she can run after a Huck or a Romney have their two terms completed. so she runs in a national election after a successful GOP president. I think that is probably her best chance at this time.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Dave,
That’s an argument for why Palin won’t be President, not why she won’t be the nominee. Guys like Brooks and Murphy got exactly the wrong lesson from McCain’s 2008 primary victory. They concluded that Republicans are, ultimately, savvy. Which is a strange and stupid conclusion given that McCain, until after Super Tuesday, couldn’t cobble together a majority really anywhere. McCain won the primary because he was facing a number of imperfect conservative alternatives and because the only “moderate” alternative flamed out in December. There was no more than a 30% base for a relatively moderate candidate in 2008; that number is likely to have dropped to 20-25%. In a miracle scenario that’s enough to get you the nomination…maybe, but that doesn’t mean the Republican primary electorate is anyways pragmatic.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
Alright as one of the earliest Palin backers for President, (if not thee earliest way back in 2006), I’m gonna be reasonable here for the sake of argument.
If Brooks, Frum & Crew don’t want Sarah, than who? Tim Pawlenty? Nice guy, for sure. But ho-hum.
Just how do they propose to build excitement for a 2012 GOP ticket of respectably, but completely ho-hummers like Pawlenty, or perhaps Mitch Daniels? Why would any hardline conservative or libertarian Republican be motivated to come out to the polls for such a ticket?
And what’s to stop libertarian Republicans from voting Libertarian Party if the GOP were to nominate such a ticket?
They seem to forget that Bob Barr was polling 6% nationwide in August 2008 right before Palin was picked.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Rudy plz.
9 – No, Bob Barr was not polling six percent. Lol. Stop your silliness.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Eric,
Those folks live on another planet. There’s no point asking them a question like that. They’re incapable of comprehending that Sarah Palin might possibly be considered for anything other than national moosehunter of the year. I’m a Pawlenty guy, but even I can understand why folks have skepticism about his ability to fire up the conservative base, and why many see Palin as appealing.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
We should take a vote on how many of us actually regard Brooks or any of McCain’s handlers as “Republicans” we follow.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Oh, stop this “base” worship. This goes back to our conversation last night.
The base! The base! The blessed, almighty base!
Yeah, it’s important, but you can’t win without the center and independents.
Sarah’s got a lot more work to do before she wins them over. That’s what Schmidt means by the apocalypse, I think.
I think that Sarah CAN win them over, and I think we’ll start to see that after her book comes out. But we’ll see, I guess.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Let’s not overstate things here. Cayuga county, home of Auburn, went narrowly (53-45) for Obama in 2008 as Obama won NYS by a margin of 62-37. George Bush carried Auburn in 2004. So we’re talking purple real estate here, not deep blue territory.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
Neither Murphy nor Brooks are politicians running for office. They are fortunate enough to be among the few respected conservative voices in the press, helping to shape what becomes the accepted conventional wisdom in Washington, New York and throughout the mainstream media. Whether the average person on the street could identify them is irrelevant.
It was a reported crowd of 10,000 to 12,000, and Obama won 53% of the vote in Cayuga County, where Auburn is located. The crowds Palin draws compared to Romney are rather impressive, but of no relevance in contrast to this.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
I don’t care about this crowd size contest but the Associated Press reported 20,000 and I’m not going to question when they give a favorable crowd estimate after the brou-haha over the Tea Party attendance.
http://thehill.com/news-by-subject/finance-economy/19998-palin-draws-20000-to-new-york-appearance
October 5th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Off-topic but Farleigh Dickinson will allegedly be the first pollster to show Corzine taking the lead over Christie tomorrow.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
I read an article that Newt Gingrich said Tim Pawlenty might be a good choice for the 2012 Republican Party. Gingrich didn’t mentioned about Sarah Palin. Pawlenty seemed to be a nice guy. I like him better than Romney and Palin. Sarah resigned as the Governor of Alaska and she didn’t finished her term. I heard her speech when she resigned from office on TV back in July. I didn’t like her speech too well because she was ‘whiny’. Mitt Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. He is not conservative.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
Matt,
I concede your point about Republicans not being real savvy when it comes to Realpolitic. Fortunately, you don’t have to be all that savvy to figure out that Sarah would drastically diminish our chances of defeating Obama. All you have to do is be able to read polls.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Sean M., Romney’s book is on Amazon as a pre-release, just like Palin’s. Go to Amazon.com, and enter the title.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
You mean Weaver. Schmidt said catastrophic.
October 5th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
As i wrote on another thread I don’t think they could even find the farm.
October 5th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
There is a big difference between the primary and the general, but it is true to say that the base favorite doesn’t often win the primary. McCain’s not the only beneficiary there, Bush Snr did too. And Ford (he had the benefit of incumbency, sure, but that shows that other factors can overcome).
Is there room for a base-incitor who can draw establishment support, or are those two things mutually exclusive?
October 5th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Why do “conservatives” need all this hand holding, gospel singing, and bombast to get fired up?
In other words, “Why do GOP “conservatives” need a celebrity or firebrand to get out and vote?
I thought that was a Dem problem.
Hey “conservatives,” if you are really the “base” of the party, get off your keesters and vote even if the nominee is a little low key like Pawlenty or too analytical like Romney.
The cheerleaders don’t necessarily make good quarterbacks, and the quarterbacks don’t have to be cheerleaders….they just have to be good at what they do……whether or not they are “Joe Charisma”…..
October 5th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
#3
NOBODY WOULD SLEEP BETTER AT NIGHT KNOWING SHE WAS PRESIDENT OF THE COUNTRY
Except:
1)American soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq
2)Private gun owners
3)Senior citizens afraid of “death panels”
4)Sarah Palin’s 900,000 supporters of her Facebook
5)special needs families
6)Team Sarah members 70,000 strong
7)Israeli citizens
8)the 22m listeners to Rush Limbaugh
9)the pro-life community
10)libertarians
October 5th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
First of all, Weaver was the one who spread that rumor about Vicki Iseman to the Times and they ran with it. Second, Everyone should run, and may the best man and/or woman win. But on policy, not the ephemeral and often false minutia that some here traffic in. Third,
the question comes to what do we
believe, that is ultimately more
important
October 5th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Here is another part of the Meet the Press segment:
Mike Murphy lists 2012 favorites
Republican strategist Mike Murphy handicaps the 2012 field on Meet The Press.
MURPHY: I think you’re going to have a big field. I think the Republican nomination will be viewed as being worth having, though Obama after the mid-terms will be in trouble; then there’ll be the inevitable comeback. It could be a very competitive race.
The usual suspects, of course, will be there. Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, who I think is a little underestimated as a potential contender. I’m not for him, but I think he could have a real path to the nomination.
I think you’re also going to see some new faces like, I think, if David Brooks were here, he’d be talking about John Thune as kind of a new, impressive guy coming out of the Senate.
GREGORY: (tongue-in-cheek) Brooks would talk about Thune?
MURPHY: Endlessly. Then you’ve got Charlie Crist, who I don’t think will go anywhere, but I think would have the ambition.
Newt Gingrich, which will be, I think, a missed blessing in a primary candidate role. I think he’s better as a kind of idea merchant. And then finally, you might see a Rick Santorum on the Right — kind of in that Huckabee segment, and then maybe another Republican new face out of the midterm race election.
Rachel Maddow then asks which Murphy thinks is most likely to win, and he rattles off the names of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Tim Pawlenty.
October 5th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
NOBODY WOULD SLEEP BETTER AT NIGHT KNOWING SHE WAS PRESIDENT OF THE COUNTRY
Except:
…
10)libertarians
HA! I’m still waiting for someone to show me Palin’s ability to attract libertarians…
October 5th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Here is the link to the video clip:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/ns/meet_the_press_online_at_msnbc#33164092
Murphy also says that Romney and Huckabee both came in second.
October 5th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Caribou Barbie for president! I would love to see that happen. Please pick her for the GOP ticket.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
If she gets the nomination those kooks won’t be anywhere near her campaign. One more thing the Gibson interview was not a disaster, so stop calling it that. You are playing into the meme from the left.
I noticed how everybody always talks about her Resignation speech but never her Farewell speech. Is that because her Farewell speech was a great speech?
After Sarah promotes her book the conservatives are going to love her ever more. Sarah won’t run but if the nuts keep it up she may run just to piss everybody off. Know what I mean.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
One more thing, I thought this was a Romney site but it is Sarah, Sarah, Sarah all the time.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
#31 Jan…..I think the reason people talk about the resignation speech rather than the farewell speech is that the resignation speech shows how Palin thinks on her feet while the farewell speech shows what Palin can do when she has rehearsed something that may have been written by somebody else.
Palin also did well with the NRC speech and Hong Kong speech……both of which were written by someone else but delivered well by Palin.
There is some concern, as shown by the interviews, etc., that Palin is not able to think on the run and is not interested in/able to grasp many of the complex issues facing the country, an ability that many view as important if one is to be President.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Dave,
Like 30-50% of Republicans believe that Obama wasn’t born here. That’s a far less reasonable believe than the “Sarah Palin might be able to win the general election, polls notwithstanding”.
Alex,
I’d agree, obviously, that Palin has a lot of work to do to win the center. In fact, on that point I’m inclined to agree with Murphy and co; I’m not sure there’s anything Sarah can do to win those folks over. But, we’re talking about a Republican primary here, or at least I was. And you DON’T need to win over the center to win the Republican nomination. Certainly not in 2012.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:15 pm
Jan,
Who in the world told you that this was a Romney site? This is a Republican site. We have no allegiance as a site.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
bob,
Surely, you jest.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
#34
I’M NOT SURE THERE’S ANYTHING SARAH CAN DO TO WIN THESE FOLKS (THE CENTER)OVER
Matthew, how about selling them a book for start.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
#36:
I never jest about soldier’s in harms way.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Matt,
I’ll concede that one too—it’s always possible that the polls could change—I just really doubt it. My basic premise is that people gravitate to candidates with gravitas, at least where the presidency is concerned. As much as I like Sarah, I wouldn’t trust her to handle a foreign crisis of major consequence. In the general, this wouldn’t be a problem, as I would give her the benefit of the doubt vis a vis Obama. But in the Primary, there would be better options, starting with Mitt and Tim.
October 5th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Now , after the Obama damage has been done, the polls matter. Many of the people on this site said the polls didn’t matter when their candidate didn’t show well in 2008. Interesting that some now say Sarah is too conservative to win. How is she more conservative than the present edition of Romney or Thune or Pawlenty?
October 5th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Why should I trust Mitt and Tim on foreign policy? Tell me about their foreign policy credentials.
October 5th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Edit: I am sorry it tool me so long to find and delete your asinine comment, troll. Consider yourself perma-banned.-R4′12 Editor in Chief.
October 5th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Gormley, you obviously have not been paying attention. Mitt has articulated much, much more on foreign policy than any other potential candidate. He has made very clear his positions. Do a little homework before coming on here and making yourself look silly.
October 5th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Grant,
Mitt is thoroughly conversant with foreign and military policy issues and has an extensive track record of successfully making tough decisions. As I’ve written before, he’s a DefCon and Foreign Policy Hawk more than a SoCon (although more a FiCon than either).
Tim has very limited foreign policy credentials, but has displayed familiarity with the underlying issues. He’s a quick study and has quality executive experience. Both of these men have the right temperament to handle major crises. I’ll readily admit that some of this analysis is inherently subjective, but I would trust either if these men before somebody like Colin Powell, whose bona fides in these areas are patently superior to any of our prospective nominees.
October 5th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
What people don’t understand is that Palin hunts,fishes, cleans house, raises kids including one special needs. She understands average people on their terms. Name one of these others including the pundits that do. They can’t see outside their own world.
Not to mention that with one speech about the “death panel” she took apart the health care debate that no one had been able to do.
Like i said, she is a hunter. she knows when to be quiet, when and where to pick a spot and when to shoot. How to deal quietly with the “bugs ” as the fly about! i suspect while everyone is bantering she is very quietly learning. her reviews if you get them from the horses mouth were good in Asia.
I wish her Gods speed!!!!
October 5th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
What people don’t understand is that Palin hunts,fishes, cleans house, raises kids including one special needs. She understands average people on their terms. Name one of these others including the pundits that do. They can’t see outside their own world.
Not to mention that with one speech about the “death panel” she took apart the health care debate that no one had been able to do.
Like i said, she is a hunter. she knows when to be quiet, when and where to pick a spot and when to shoot. How to deal quietly with the “bugs ” as the fly about! i suspect while everyone is bantering she is very quietly learning. her reviews if you get them from the horses mouth were good in Asia.
I wish her Gods speed!!!!
October 5th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
What people don’t understand is that Palin hunts,fishes, cleans house, raises kids including one special needs. She understands average people on their terms. Name one of these others including the pundits that do. They can’t see outside their own world.
Not to mention that with one speech about the “death panel” she took apart the health care debate that no one had been able to do.
Like i said, she is a hunter. she knows when to be quiet, when and where to pick a spot and when to shoot. How to deal quietly with the “bugs ” as the fly about! i suspect while everyone is bantering she is very quietly learning. her reviews if you get them from the horses mouth were good in Asia.
I wish her Gods speed!!!!
October 5th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
What people don’t understand is that Palin hunts,fishes, cleans house, raises kids including one special needs. She understands average people on their terms. Name one of these others including the pundits that do. They can’t see outside their own world.
Not to mention that with one speech about the “death panel” she took apart the health care debate that no one had been able to do.
Like i said, she is a hunter. she knows when to be quiet, when and where to pick a spot and when to shoot. How to deal quietly with the “bugs ” as the fly about! i suspect while everyone is bantering she is very quietly learning. her reviews if you get them from the horses mouth were good in Asia.
I wish her Gods speed!!!!
October 5th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
What people don’t understand is that Palin hunts,fishes, cleans house, raises kids including one special needs. She understands average people on their terms. Name one of these others including the pundits that do. They can’t see outside their own world.
Not to mention that with one speech about the “death panel” she took apart the health care debate that no one had been able to do.
Like i said, she is a hunter. she knows when to be quiet, when and where to pick a spot and when to shoot. How to deal quietly with the “bugs ” as the fly about! i suspect while everyone is bantering she is very quietly learning. her reviews if you get them from the horses mouth were good in Asia.
I wish her Gods speed!!!!
October 5th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
Palin is like a republican Obama. She is all hype and tabloid fodder but no substance. Why is it that when we have a candidate like Romney who is qualified, intelligent and moral we want to blow him off as too boring. We are talking about the leader of our country. Isn’t competence what we should want??? Palin is interesting but does not have the experience or knowledge to be the leader of the free world. We should all be supporting Mitt because he will blow Obama away in any debate because he is more than just a flowery speaker but has actual wisdom to back it up. Romney in 2012!!!
October 6th, 2009 at 6:59 am
“Palin is like a republican Obama. She is all hype and tabloid fodder but no substance. Why is it that when we have a candidate like Romney who is qualified, intelligent and moral we want to blow him off as too boring.” Well because, compared to Mrs. Palin, he is boring.
October 6th, 2009 at 8:43 am
Well, OJ, compared to Tina Fey, Palin is boring! Maybe Tina Fey is the right candidate for us?
October 6th, 2009 at 9:56 am
People keep siting 800,000 supporters on FACEBOOK…Sarah doesn’t have supporters there, many are looky loos…they are there to see what is going to pop up so they can make fun of it.
Lettermnan has 4 and half million viewers, MORE now. You cannot count these kinds of numbers.
Palin will never make it, and no one WOULD sleep better if she were president. I shudder at the thought.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Why would I trust Mitt Romney who changes his political philosophy based on the constituency of the office he aspires too. Romney can make all the foreign policy statements he wants but I have no reason to believe he will stick to them.
Should I support Pawlenty who seems to be a new version of John McCain? Maybe Pawlenty can be the nominee after he fails at Presidential politics for over 20 years as McCain did.
Palin, Huckabee,and Jindal are three I could possibly support but all 3 need to prove themselves.