ATTENTION ALLAHPUNDIT: COMPETENT GOP TALKING POINTS REGARDING THE CBO NUMBERS ARE IN THIS POST.
So, a lot has been made over the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that the Baucus bill currently making the rounds in the Senate will cost roughly 830 billion dollars and lead to a net reduction in the deficit over the next ten years — 2010 to 2019. The CBO, of course, is required to make a ten-year estimate.
Wonderful. Except that the bill doesn’t take effect until 2013. And the first-year costs are only a few billion dollars since there are all sorts of provisions intact for first-year glitches and bumps.
The real costs will actually be upwards of a trillion dollars over the actual first ten years of the bill’s implementation.
Expect to hear virtually nothing about this (or about the unconstitutionality of the individual mandate).
October 7th, 2009 at 10:56 pm
Wait, so it’s really gonna cost $830 Billion for SIX years? Over a hundred bil a year? Wow. Imagine what the MSM would have done if Bush had tried to pull this off.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
this report is very disturbing to me. even karl rove and hotair.com seem to have trouble spinning this. bob dole even supports it. ug, i sense a huge momentum shift in favor of obama care.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:35 pm
McChrystal Wanted 50,000 Troops
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/07/world/main5369823.shtml
Cooperation Rises between Iran and Taliban
As Tensions with United States Escalate, Iran Supplying the Taliban with Money, Weapons to Fuel Fight
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/07/eveningnews/main5370148.shtml
Afghan War Debate Now Leans to Focus on Al Qaeda
President Obama’s national security team is moving to reframe its war strategy by emphasizing the campaign against Al Qaeda in Pakistan while arguing that the Taliban in Afghanistan do not pose a direct threat to the United States, officials said Wednesday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/world/asia/08prexy.html?pagewanted=print
U.S. Budget Deficit Hit Record $1.4 Trillion in 2009
The previous record deficit was $459 billion and was set just last year.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/07/budget-deficit-hit-record-billion/
The GOP Is Winning the Health-Care Debate
Gallup says independents now favor Republicans by nine points.
by Karl Rove
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298004574459151157036912.html#printMode
Key Democrats Would Let Guantanamo Detainees Be Tried in U.S.
Key Democratic lawmakers agreed Wednesday to allow detainees held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to be transferred to the United States for trial, removing one of several hurdles the administration must clear to meet its January deadline for closing the military prison. Left unresolved was whether the administration could also hold detainees indefinitely in this country without charging them.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/07/AR2009100703802_pf.html
Dems struggle for Gitmo deal
Democrats pushed ahead Wednesday with a $42.8 billion homeland security budget that keeps alive the goal of closing Guantanamo someday while preserving President Barack Obama’s discretion — in the interim — to bring detainees into the United States for short periods to stand trial.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=31886EB8-18FE-70B2-A840E90CAF90F5E8
David Cameron must fill the leadership vacuum left by Barack Obama
David Cameron must reject the folly of the Obama doctrine and follow the example of Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/6269781/David-Cameron-must-fill-the-leadership-vacuum-left-by-Barack-Obama.html
October 8th, 2009 at 1:33 am
Freak me out I just read all of that guy Cashill’s analysis of “Dreams of My Father” because of Ann Leary’s announcement about running into Bill Ayers at the airport. I found Cashill’s evidence EXTREMELY compelling…I am now convinced Obama is the biggest political fraud ever. The likes of Ayers are pulling Obama’s strings, this explains the corruption and weirdo Czars, look I honestly think Obama does not have the mental firepower nor personal….abilities? to pull this off and it is not going to end well for him in terms of his political career. Is that just wishful thinking on my part? Well definitely some of that, I’d like to see the phony be exposed, but in the meantime the USA is like a rudderless ship(using my Ayers-like nautical analogy) right now and it absolutely feels that way. Freak me out. Maybe I’ll feel better after a good night’s sleep.
October 8th, 2009 at 1:43 am
‘Course the CBO numbers are a fraud, nothing but fraudulence is coming out of this Administration. Obama is a fraud. I’m freaked. Only temporarily, I’ll get it together here, but we haven’t seen this before. I credit bloggers, and the internet. We see everything as it happens, we can put the pieces together ourselves and post it for the world to see if we feel like it. Stunning.
I’m telling you, sometimes I think the future is no central government at all. All local governance. Do you see some of the skill, courage and brilliance in these blogs? The American people do not need big bro taking care of them. The American people got it goin’ on! I personally appreciate not having to rely on the likes of Dan Rather to do fact checks for me.
OK but back to my central thesis here, Obama is a fraud. And he knows it. That’s why he’s always trying to get people, especially bullies like Chavez, to like him. The dude’s running scared. He’s been used, albeit willingly, his whole life by people smarter than he is, and all he wants out of the deal is his wagyu steak with dijon and to be part of the group. To be loved. Is that so wrong?
If I were a soldier in Afghanistan I would get so out of there if I could right now. The Commander in Chief is a fraud. You better hope he cares about you. We all had better hope something goes our way soon. Darn it! And I was so enjoying peace, prosperity and tranquility and the American way of life. Freakin’ fraud.
October 8th, 2009 at 1:47 am
I’m so sorry I don’t have one ounce of respect for the guy right now, and I see Michelle Obama as an enabler at best, like Elizabeth Edwards. She definitely knows hubby isn’t up to the task without some serious propping up.
So what’s with the media? How come they got bought so cheap and facilitated this whole fraud? I’m going to have to do some research on these huge, corrupted media networks. I still don’t get that angle of it.
October 8th, 2009 at 2:27 am
Liz,
Alex will go nuts about it but the stronger piece of evidence if you choose to push this theory comes from the author of “Barack and Michelle: An American Marriage.”
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/09/andersen_book_blows_ayers_cove.html
October 8th, 2009 at 7:38 am
How can the bill cost 830 billion and lead to a net reduction in the deficit? Is the 830 the gross expense before the taxes and fees it raises?
If so, then why not simply reduce the debt by more than 830 billion, instead of creating a new
entitlement programticking time bomb that will cost at least twice what is projected and will need bailing out?October 8th, 2009 at 8:46 am
7. Alex thought I was crazy when I referenced that a few months ago. Now it’s becoming hard to deny.
October 8th, 2009 at 9:13 am
“How can the bill cost 830 billion and lead to a net reduction in the deficit?”
My guess would be that expenditures on similar healthcare programs would be more than 830 billion without the bill.
Not that, you know, these numbers are all that honest.
October 8th, 2009 at 9:52 am
MWS,
The only way something that costs $830 Billion can reduce the deficit is if it includes a massive tax increase. Alternative explanations are that it includes offsetting (and then some) cuts in other programs, which is patently absurd, or that the projections are fraudulent.
The truth is that the program will cost far more than $830 Billion, not include any offsetting savings, and the projections are lies. The America that we’ve come to know and love is dying.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:07 am
If this thing passes I’m going to suck up my pride (and my comments 2006-2009) and endorse Rick Perry for governor of Texas
October 8th, 2009 at 11:40 am
I haven’t had time to really read up on this yet… But when they talk about a net reduction in the deficit, does that simply mean the projected deficit over the same time period won’t grow quite as rapidly? Obviously the deficit projections so far under Obama are pretty scary.
I think most people are still going to look at a bill that costs over $800 billion and the notion that it’s going to save money will just seem absurd.
October 8th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Of course much is going to be made out of the CBO numbers. What would anyone expect, which every GOP member interviewed over the last months feigning concern over the cost. Well, now the cost is known, and it’s scored reasonably well (for the steaming turd it is, unfortunately).
So now we’re supposed to believe the CPO numbers don’t matter because they kill another talking point? Came around and bit them in the butt, that.
Liz – you know Ayers was yanking Leary’s chain, implying the far right was dumb enough to believe anything, just like you just bit.
October 8th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
I’d also point out that when the public option is added, the cost goes DOWN even more.
October 8th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
#16 AI, can you point me to a single gov’t program that has EVER come in at or near the initial budget projections?
October 8th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
GOP Faces Multiple Hurdles as It Aims for a 1994 Replay
by Gerald Seib
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125495123152271693.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories#printMode
After Six Years, ‘We’re Worthless’
Iraqis on U.S.-Created Local Councils Feeling Vulnerable as American Pullout Looms
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/07/AR2009100703932_pf.html
Cheney’s Daughter Starts Firm Of Her Own
Mary Cheney, the daughter of former vice president Dick Cheney and the sister of go-to Obama critic Liz Cheney, is leaving the political consulting firm Navigators Global to start her own consulting company, and multiple sources familiar with her plans say she will not be going it alone. “She told me she is going to be starting a firm with her dad and sister,” said one friend of Mary’s, with whom she has shared her plans.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/07/AR2009100703982_pf.html
Obama May Stick to Current Afghan Strategy — a Loser
By Mort Kondracke
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/10/08/_obama_may_stick_to_current_afghan_strategy__a_loser_98631.html
Tina Fey ready to bring Sarah Palin impersonation out of retirement for Palin’s book, ‘Going Rogue’
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/tv/2009/10/07/2009-10-07_tiny_fey_ready_to_bring_sarah_palin_impersonation_out_of_retirement_for_palins_b.html
http://www.harpersbazaar.com/magazine/cover/tina-fey-interview-1109
The Money Race In Florida
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2009/10/the_money_race_in_florida.html
October 8th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
The Baucus Sausage
by Jay Cost
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/10/quick_take_on_the_baucus_bill.html
Getting Britain Back on Her Feet: Keynote Speech to the Conservative Party Conference
by David Cameron
http://www.realclearworld.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/10/08/getting_britain_back_on_her_feet_97246-full.html
October 9th, 2009 at 1:50 am
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that having a “public option” would squeeze $100 billion in costs from the system over 10 years because of competition with private insurers, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.
Compromise doesn’t mean compromising the essence of policy, and all know it !!
1. As regards a Baucus scheme, the source of funding coming from a middle class is utterly against the commitment of Democratic party while it leaves 25 million Americans without health insurance . And the bill would require people to buy insurance they can hardly afford.
In response to the scheme, the letter from 154 House Democrats to Speaker Nancy Pelosi urges her “to reject proposals to enact an excise tax on high-cost insurance plans that could be potentially passed on to middle-class families.”
“This is not an obscure detail of health care reform,” said Connecticut Rep. Joe Courtney, who drafted the letter. “Taxing health benefits was explicitly debated in the campaign by presidential candidates and people running for Congress.”
Furthermore, looking closely at the new CBO report, it won’t be until “2014 or 2015″ that folks start seeing a serious reduction in the number of uninsured.
2. No cost-competitive advantage of the insurer-friendly scheme does not clear the grave concern about the unsustainable growth in cost of overall health care program in the long run. Baucus scheme Doesn’t Bend Cost Curve Enough, Experts Say.
And the scheme proposes a “fake” alternative, nonprofit insurance cooperatives — and it places so many “restrictions” on these cooperatives that, according to the Congressional Budget Office, they “seem unlikely to establish a significant market presence in many areas of the country.”
Beyond, the bill would lock many workers into health plans selected by their employers, without allowing them to shop for better, cheaper plans, an alternative that could help drive down costs for everyone.
Senator Rockefeller is also upset that the bill would even turn nearly a half-trillion dollars over to insurance companies, whose profits he says are “out of sight.”
3. Even with some benefit for primary practitioners, the baseless scheme does not come with fundamental payment reform, or a pay for value reimbursement formula. It means that the insurer-friendly scheme is not cleaning up the concerns over quality, regional imbalance issues and $9trillion of deficit over the next ten years.
((Here is some of CBO analysis : While the costs of the financial bailouts and economic stimulus bills are staggering, they are only a fraction of the coming costs from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that each year Medicaid will expand by 7 percent, Medicare by 6 percent, and Social Security by 5 percent. These programs face a 75-year shortfall of $43 trillion–60 times greater than the gross cost of the $700 billion TARP financial bailout)).
4. For Medicare & Medicaid system to survive from the most wasteful structure on earth, enough savings via fundamental changes need to be ensured, in return, the savings thereof suffice to meet the goal of well-planned public option.
((Even with far less visits to docs, which average a half or a third of them in any other free states, Americans pay roughly twice as much per person right now)).
5. For the record, prior to nation-wide deployment of reform, The State Of “Yes We Can”, Minnesota influenced by Mayo clinic spends “20 percent” less per patient than the national average and 31 percent less than in the highest cost state. It highlights that no substantial tax raise is needed at least for sure.
((The $583 billion of revenue package, and the astronomical savings of public option aside, “20%” of $923.5bn (the combined Medicare and Medicaid cost per year, as of July) represents around $184.7bn per year and 1.847trillion over the next decade, and this patient-centered value alone could be sufficient to meet the goal of public option)).
6. In principle, the long-awaited and most hopeful health care plan is to meet these criterias : Affordability, Quality, and A Check function against runaway premiums thereof.
Clearly enough, due largely to its lower overhead cost, purchasing power and fundamental payment reform, the well-planned public option would be doing more than the baseless scheme by THE INDUSTRY in these aforementioned aspects.
Now is the moment to open the page of contemporary energy and financial upgrades glossed over in 8 years.
Thank You !
October 10th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
[...] remarks echo those recently made by our own Alex Knepper. Perhaps the most glaring shortcoming of the Baucus Bill [...]