David Frum has an interesting piece comparing New York 23 and the New Jersey Gubernatorial campaign. He writes:
My good friend Jim Geraghty observes at National Review: “I realize this statement will break the heart of supporters of Chris Daggett, the independent running for governor in New Jersey, but he’s acting as incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine’s bodyguard.”
Here at NewMajority, John Vecchione likewise derides Daggett as a spoiler.
From an electoral point, Geraghty and Vecchione are exactly correct. But isn’t the same thing true of Doug Hoffman? Yet the electoral arithmetic that seems all-important in New Jersey matters not a bit in NY-23, where national conservative leaders have queued to endorse Hoffman over Scozzafava.
Agreed: Hoffman seems a much more attractive candidate than Scozzafava, and would probably make a much better member of Congress.
But I interviewed Daggett this past weekend, and I can attest – this independent too is a much more attractive candidate than his official Republican rival…
Like most New Jersey Republicans, [Daggett] is unexcited by social issues, accepting the status quo on abortion, guns, and gay rights. (On that last, he says he’ll leave the issue to the legislature. If they pass same-sex marriage, he’ll sign it.) And make no mistake: Daggett has been a Republican almost all his life. A protégé of former Governor Thomas Kean, he was appointed as state Environmental Protection Agency administrator by Ronald Reagan.
Daggett would make a very good governor. The rules of American politics seem likely to deny him his chance. But here’s the question for a national conservative audience:
If you are reconciled to losing NY-23 in order to send a warning to the GOP not to ignore Hoffman voters, what if anything do you have to say to Daggett voters? While Hoffman voters form the party’s base nationwide, Daggett voters are the swing voters the GOP must win to regain its competitiveness in the northeast. Without Hoffman voters, the Republican party would not exist. Without Daggett voters, the Republican party cannot win a national majority.
Frum then goes on to note a Democracy Corps study suggesting a cultural divide; that the most staunchly conservative voters have an Beckian insular mindset at odds with the swing-voter now flocking to Daggett. I think Frum is, for once, right to point to the inconsistency of conservatives in chastising Daggett while promoting Hoffman. In both situations, so-called Republicans are helping a liberal Democrat win the seat. There’s no getting around that.
But, again, Frum has an odd handle on causes. I find it, frankly, incredible that he is trying to pin Daggett’s success on his lack ”excitement about social issues”. With the exception of Corzine’s egregious suggestion that Christie’s health care plan would stop mammogram screenings, Corzine hasn’t gotten an inch of mileage out of cultural attacks. And surely Frum’s fiscal conservative ideal would have faced a similar charge.
Now, of course, he’s careful to note that by “cultural divide” he’s not primarily talking about actual social issues. He’s done this, I suspect, because he realizes that Christie hasn’t talked about social issues and that social conservatives find him unconvincing and insincere. Indeed, Frum doesn’t seem to have any particularly clear idea why this cultural divide applies to the Christie/Daggett/Corzine race. We’re left to think that, in some vague way, Chris Christie gives off Beckian vibes.
This is nonsense. Christie has faltered because he’s decided to run as Thomas Dewey circa 48′. He’s been big on lofty talk, heavily reliant on his reputation, and content to avoid specifics in an, apparent, attempt to overcome a presumed liberal consensus. You can pin the rejection of this sort of politics to a socially indifferent, good-government electorate if you like: but not, I think, very persuasively.
It’s worth noting, though, the apparently unironic gall of the moderate set of the party. In the primary they urged us to think strategically by selecting the socially temperate, good government Christie, over the socially conservative, wonky Steve Lonegan. Now, in the general election, Christie is bleeding Republicans and independents because of the vacuity of his campaign, and the cultural conservatives are still to blame. Sometimes cultural conservatism stops a candidate from winning the center, but there’s no evidence of that here.
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Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com and at his Pawlentyesque blog
October 18th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Isn’t Frum assuming that conservatives aren’t voting for Daggett? That doesn’t seem to be the case in some of the polling.
Daggett is pushing the “Beck” message regarding both parties. It could very well be the case that “Beck” conservatives are the ones who are voting for Daggett over Christie. Daggett seems to have emphasized his fiscal conservative positions over his liberal positions.
I think it’s a faulty assumption on the part of Frum considering that the focus group talked about in Frum’s piece looked at Beck much more favorably than Limbaugh.
October 18th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
If Dagget is such a good would-be Republican, why didn’t he run in the primary against Christie and Lonegan? That is what primaries are for; party faithful picking their candidate.
Hoffman may, may have a chance to win in NY-23, but there is absolutely no chance for Chris Daggett to win in NJ. Both he and Chris Christie are singing the same tune “throw Corzine out”. The only way Corzine stays as Governor is if Daggett spoils Christie’s chance.
Independents and 3rd Party candidates don’t win unless under the rarest of circumstances, which again NY-23 maybe. If you want to win in American politics, you have to pick a party and stay with it. That’s just the way the game is played.
October 18th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
SurveyUSA
Among Conservatives
Chris Christie 66%
Chris Daggett 16%
Jon Corzine 15%
PPP (D)
Among Conservatives
Chris Christie 66%
Chris Daggett 13%
Jon Corzine 12%
Daggett supporters’ 2nd choice
Among Conservatives
Chris Christie 66%
Jon Corzine 12%
Neighborhood Research (R)
Among Conservatives
Chris Christie 63%
Chris Daggett 13%
Jon Corzine 12%
Democracy Corps (D)
Among Conservatives
Chris Christie 61%
Jon Corzine 21%
Chris Daggett 14%
Among Conservative Republicans
Chris Christie 77%
Chris Daggett 13%
Jon Corzine 7%
October 18th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Predictions
McDonnell will win in a landslide, Christie will beat Corzine by 2-8 points and Daggett’s support will plummet on election night, Doug Hoffman will continue to surge in the polls and win by 1-2 points, Bloomberg will be reelected by 7-15 points.
October 18th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Aron,
My point exactly. I worded it wrong. Frum seems to be assuming that self-identifying conservatives aren’t the ones voting for Daggett when the polling indicates that a sizable chunk of them are voting him.
Frum was insinuating that moderates are the ones voting for Daggett.
October 18th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Prediction:
McDonnell wins
Corzine wins narrowly
Dede Scozzfaca also wins narrowly, and then either is voted out or becomes a Democrat in 2010.
October 18th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
First off – way to steal my title!
http://race42008.com/2009/09/24/gosh-daggett/
Second – I think you’re right that Frum wants to have his cake and eat it too in this case. Until hie started bleeding support – christie was the great white hope of the moderate wing of the party – a shining example of how to win by sticking it to conservatives. Now that he’s tanking – it’s suddenly the fault of coonservatives that Christie is losing (apperently he OUR guy now that they’ve tired of him).
In fact – if there’s any conservative impact on this rac, it’s that we’re NOT supporting Christie. Actually, we’re throwing Christie under the bus and abandoning him to his fate (note my own personal pseudo-enthusiasm over Daggett). So – it’s more than laughable to blame the conservative base for the fact that a moderate nominee is being out-moderated by a centrist independent.
From a conservative perspective, Christie may be to Daggett’s right overall, but it’s a close call considering that Daggett is the one pushing school choice and deep cuts in property taxes. And at least Daggett has specific ideas, so we might get more results from a Deggett administation than a Christie adminitration.
As has been already noted – it is also hard to pigeonhole Daggett voters as centrist. Daggett is running what I would call the PERFECT independent campaign – meaning he’s running to the center overall, but also bashing Christie from the right (school choice, property taxes) and Corzine from the left (environmental issues). So the bulk of his voters are going to be centrists, but he’s also going to get both some Beckian Republicans and some Sierra Club liberals. That’s both a very hard attack to counter and difficult on to use as an example if one is trying to dismiss Daggett as a function of one candidate or party’s weakness – at this point he’s drawing on the weaknesses of the entire system in Jersey and farnkkly he’s now EVERYBODY’s problem.
October 18th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Predictions –
McDonnell eekes out a narrow victory
Owens wins in NY-23 (I like Hoffman, and would vote for him- but unless things change)
NJ too close to call but leaning Corzine
October 18th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Adam,
Why a narrow victory for McDonnell? You think conservatives will abandon him for Deeds or that his moderate support will completely collapse?
I have a tough time seeing the former happening given that Deeds was viewed by a plurality of Virginian respondents as liberal on the first night of polling by PPP(D) and he has decided to embrace Obama/Biden/Gore, instead of distance himself from them.
October 18th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Another thought – not sayiing I fully believe this – but am I the only one that thinks Londegan could have held off the Daggett surge better than Christie? Lonegan may have been a little nutty – but he had a lot more sppecifics (which is Daggett’s primary selling point). Daggett might have teed off on Lonegan’s radicalism and eccentricity, but it would be harder to have labeled Lonegan incompotent (at leat on the policy front).
October 18th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Perhaps relative to conservatives. Whereas Daggett gets an average 14% support from conservatives, he pulls in 17% on average among moderates in the same four polls.
In the most recent SurveyUSA poll, Daggett earns 22 percent of the moderate vote.
October 18th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Off-Topic: Just got a good laugh. Red Zone Channel’s studio host, Andrew Siciliano, as he’s about to take viewers to the Patriots-Titans game in Foxboro.
Update: Siciliano just took another jab at Al Gore and his disciples…
October 18th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
9 -
I work in Virginia (live in DC) – and I have become disgusted by the McDonnell campaigns absurd rush to the center and their puposeful dissasociation of their candidate with South VA (McDonell is all about playing up his NoVA creds and dismissing the GOP base in the South part of the stare)
McDonnell loses votes to both poor campaigning and disgusted conservatives like me staying home. He only wins because because his bad campaign will still beat the luaghable, almost moronic strategy adopted by the Deeds campaign. If Deeds had run to the center rather than the left after the primaries, he could have won.
October 18th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
SurveyUSA
Among Moderates
Jon Corzine 40%
Chris Christie 35%
Chris Daggett 22%
PPP (D)
Among Moderates
Jon Corzine 39%
Chris Christie 38%
Chris Daggett 15%
Daggett supporters’ 2nd choice
Among Moderates
Chris Christie 51%
Jon Corzine 37%
Democracy Corps (D)
Among Moderates
Jon Corzine 42%
Chris Christie 33%
Chris Daggett 16%
October 18th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
When is this election? What date?
October 18th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
ICYMI…
Video: New Jersey Gubernatorial Debate
http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/politics/091016_NJ_Gubernatorial_Debate
October 18th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
“McDonnell loses votes to both poor campaigning.”
Bob McDonnell has run the smartest campaign this year. What are you talking about?
October 18th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
November 3rd — two weeks from Tuesday.
October 18th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
THx!
October 18th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Brickley is bitter that both McDonnell and Christie snubbed Palin.
October 18th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Governor race keys on preschool, choice
http://www.northjersey.com/news/Governor_race_keys_on_preschool_choice.html
October 18th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
Adam,
Politico all but asserted that Deeds would close strong in the following article.
Dems see path for Deeds in Virginia
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28410.html
60% plus in Northern Virginia is probably enough to get Deeds within 5 but I don’t see him getting closer unless he can start winning votes from conservatives who are with McDonnell right now. I don’t see alinging yourself with Obama/Gore/Biden in the final week is going to do much other than help you with voters that should already be voting for you.
October 18th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Aron,
By the way, here’s Scott Rasmussen’s analysis of his poll on FoxNews. C’mon man, you know that even if Rasmussen showed Obama leading Palin by 30 and other polls showed him up 8 that Chuck Todd and his buddies would never cite Rasmussen.
Scott Rasmussen’s take on Latest GOP 2012 Poll Numbers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9THgU-CL7uI
October 18th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
#13 Adam. . . You don’t like McDonnell’s move to the center – which attracts disaffected moderate Dems to our side in the purplest of states – so instead you’d stay home and help the liberal Democrat win? Does that make any sense to you?
You admit that if Deeds moved to the center, he’d have won, but you condemn McDonnell for doing the same.
To what end do bitter “disgusted” Conservatives continue to fight against our own party? This is why we always lose elections.
October 18th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
New Jersey is a heavily blue state that Republicans under most circumstances have no chance of winning. However, in 2009 because of a tremendous anti-incumbent/anti-Corzine wave all you need is a moderately conservative candidate who runs a half way decent campaign to win. The only thing you have to make sure is that the Republican doesn’t openly run on social conservatism because it’s the Northeast and there are plenty of pseudo-educated yuppies who would rather vote against their own interests than vote for someone who’s a Christian. All Daggett is doing is splitting the anti-Corzine vote, he has no chance of winning.
NY-23 is a swing/slightly leaning Republican district. It’s fine to run an outright conservative there, or at least someone who’s much more Right wing than would be acceptable in New Jersey. Unfortunately it looks like the Republican Party in that district found the most Left wing Republican possible, the type of Republican who would be perfect to run in Nancy Pelosi’s district. A Scozzafava victory will hurt the party if she’s a Lincoln Chafee type, which is especially dumb coming from a district where it’s not necessary to run a candidate like that.
A vote for Daggett is selfish, a vote for Hoffman is not.
October 18th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
corzine is topping out at 40-43% in polls, wich means daggett will need to get high single digits for corzine to win. christie is the overwhelming second choice of daggett voters, about 80%. daggett, who has lost momentum with christie’s great debate performance last friday, will bleed support on election day like all indie candidates do. daggett is even more likely to bleed votes because of both ballot positioning and lack of money and ground game. daggett has no GOTV effort at all, it will be a miracle if he gets 5%. all the crosstabs point to a close christie win.
more likely outcome, christie 45%, corzine 42%, daggett 3%
October 18th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
The bottom line is, Daggett is getting more of his support from conservatives than from liberals and his support from conservatives generally equals or exceeds his overall level of support. In other words, despite the fact that Corzine is across the board unpopular, he’s actually holding onto his support more easily than Christie. He’s winning basically every voter who has a favorable opinion of him. Christie is not only losing some voters who have a favorable opinion of him, but he’s losing almost all the voters who haven’t come to a conclusion. That shouldn’t happen. Basic statistical theory should indicate that the guy who has the weakest support- and that’s clearly Corzine in the sense that he continually has the lowest favorables and the worst “very favorable” numbers- should bleed more of that support to an independent. But somehow Christie’s the one bleeding. I’m not saying it’s because he’s “too moderate” or “too conservative”, although changing that equation around a bit would probably alter the outcome. But, it’s CLEARLY not because he’s somehow ignited a cultural divide.
October 18th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Neither conservatism or libertarianism have ANY future outside of the Republican Party. To suggest that Daggett is a Republican when his chief mission in life is to sabotage the Republican Party is absurd.
Anybody who loves freedom had better pray that Hoffman loses in New York 23, because if Hoffman wins, it will hasten the demise of the only hope that liberty has; the GOP.
In light of political history over the course of the last 40 years, this point should be completely obvious. The reason Obama is destroying the country right now is that those who opposed despotism didn’t coalesce under the banner of the Republican Party. The fact that the GOP nominated McCain, a surefire loser, was because not enough proponents of freedom were willing to work intelligently inside the party.
This may seem dogmatic, but it is the simple truth. It is the way things are.
October 18th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Is Daggett the Kevin Maas of New Jersey politics?
http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/34212/daggett-kevin-maas-new-jersey-politics
October 18th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
The Republican Party is in the pathetic minority status it finds itself today because of liberal Republicans like George Bush who govern as liberal Democrats. Because Republicans spent like liberals, expanded federal programs and started a war no one understands, voters see no difference between them and Democrats.
Republicans run strongest when the lines between the parties are sharpest and run weakest when the lines are blurred. That’s why there are no liberal Republicans left in this country. Because independent minded conservative voters do not support liberal Republicans.
October 18th, 2009 at 7:17 pm
Okay – First off – saying McDonnell has run the smartest campaign of the year is nothing to write home about when your competition is Deeds, Corzine, and Christie. I’m not bitter about the Palin snub except that McDonnell himself is personally pro-Palin and is literally trying to hide his true views to win – that rubs me the wrong way no matter who you are or what you believe. Second – McDonells campaign is only smart so long as he can hide his NoVA campaign from South Virginians – the minute Deeds gets smart and starts running ads about McDonnell playng regional politics and making sure voters know hes a NORTH Virgian rather than one of those uncouth hicks from Richmond, then people down South are going to get MAD. The only thing that gives me any reall coomfort on that front is that the Deeds campaign has so far been too stupid to pick up that angle.
October 18th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
McCain was a Republican as close to the mold of Goldwater and Reagan as any. Remember, Goldwater himself, the conservative revolutionary, by the end of his life felt like a foreigner within his own party. His conservatism was a challenge to the prevailing liberal dogmas, and in the election of Reagan was at last a triumphant one. Since then, the GOP has ran to the right of Reagan even, on a lot of issues that it definitely shouldn’t have. Is tax cutting the rates further than Reagan, Clinton, and Bush have already cut them necessary or wise? What about the strong tug of social conservatism in the party, that certainly wasn’t there in the era of conservative ascendancy? Back then there’s no way anyone could have called us the party of angry white men.
The Republican Party is in trouble essentially because it has a deep and persistent split currently. Plenty of the old conservative guard, including what’s left of the old moderate wing epitomized by Sens. Snowe and Collins in Maine has stayed back in Republican Party of the 80’s – heavy defense emphases, deregulation/free-market oriented economic leanings have stayed put and favor the maintenance of that system, clearly not a good fit with the liberals, while the “base” has shifted constantly to the right, with the introduction of social conservatism and neoconservatism and more extreme free-market economics degenerating into cronyism (one of the biggest criticisms of the Bush Administration) since then. And the latter ideologies have been at war with the former old guard ever since Bush’s presidency.
More practically, if you want a road out, look at Obama’s mistakes – limp wristed foreign and defense policies that achieve nothing but expose us, extreme fiscal liberalism that has bankrupted us even worse than the Republicans had, and a more partisan divided nation than ever before. The Republicans in ‘10 and ‘12 have to focus in on those issues. If they do, they can’t go wrong.
October 18th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Except that Deeds is playing the same song. Only his volume is louder. You think Deeds isn’t stressing his “country boy” roots in Roanoke and Appalachia?
October 18th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
33 – like I said – McDonnell is getting away with his dog and pony show because the Deeds campaign wouldn’t know a good strategy if it slapped them in the face.
October 18th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
…and “The other guys is worse” is not a justification.
October 18th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
…dang – typos flowing as usual from me
October 18th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
#35:
What’s the damned difference? We are going to win all the statewide races in Virginia this year which will look good for the party and be seen as a rebuke to Obama. How it happens shouldn’t be a big concern, at least not now.
Deeds and his campaign did manage to win a surprisingly large victory in the primary over Moran and McAuliffe, so his people can win a race. The problem for Deeds is that he never showed VA voters what he would do as Governor.
October 18th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Daggett, from his platformsstrikes
me as mostly to the left of Corzine,on energy and education. Christie has been partially Alinskied on his uncorruptable
reputation, and that’s probably
affected his support in some way.
McDonnell was favored with a campaign contribution from
SarahPac, so she obviously though
he was worth her support, probably
because of his oil drilling plank.
The Post endorsed Deeds today as if they hadn’t been favoring him
all this last month, with coverage
of a 20 year thesis, seriously.
McCain is probably closer to the more jaded Goldwater of the 80s, who disdained large parts of his original base, than the ‘1964 candidate. Which isn’t surprising
considering the savaging he received that year, it would take a really strong person, not to doubt one’s own beliefs. One could argue that there wasn’t that negative a campaign since that directed at the candidate
born that same year
October 18th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
“What’s the damned difference? We are going to win all the statewide races in Virginia this year which will look good for the party and be seen as a rebuke to Obama. How it happens shouldn’t be a big concern, at least not now.”
I have to firmly disagree here. First off – politics may be a game but after elections serious governance takes place. Whos cares if we win if we put a dirtbag in office – not saying McDonnell is a dirtbag becasue I don’t think he is – but the point stands.
“Winning ugly” is not acceptabe in this business. It’s better than losing to a Dem – but still nowhere close to good.
October 18th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
#39:
This is politics, most often you don’t get the option of “good”. It gets rough in this business, and sometimes winning ugly is the only way you win.
October 18th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
Stu Rothenburg has calculated that if Daggett gets 12% of the vote or more, Corzine will win, and if he gets less than 12%, Christie will win. Note that there IS no scenario in which Daggett wins. His role is solely as a potential spoiler.
Having seen the debate, it’s hard for me to believe he will get 12%, but if he does, New Jersey will be trashed for four more years by the nation’s 2nd-worst governor (Granholm is worse).
October 18th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
It does beg the question, I guess we’re both more idealist than most, what will his mandate be, if he wins. This is kind of the problem I have with Crist, as does much of the basem he has jettisoned practically every conservative principle of note, and it’s caught up to him
October 18th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
40 –
There’s nothing I can really say to that except that you and I have entirely different priorities. You think in terms of politics and – as much as I love the game – I think in terms of governance. If you win and you still have a bad government – then you have wasted your time. If we’re not fighting for good governance, why the heck are we in politics in the first place?
Sorry – but this is a game you get in becasue you care about doing what is best for your fellow man. If you’re willing to compromise that objective for victory – you need to get the hell out of politics.
October 18th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Note – I didn’t say that self-absorbed jerks DO get out of politics – just that they SHOULD
October 19th, 2009 at 12:02 am
It’s the classic argument – if you could do something nominally “bad” to achieve a good end, would you?
There’s no clear-cut answer to it either. On one end, it’s pretty obvious that to stand down just because you didn’t want to do something that discomforted you leads to a pretty sorry world. On the other hand one has to be wary of selling one’s soul for power. But in the end, if you aren’t willing to bust some heads for your fellow man via politics, you can’t help him very much
I think it’s understood that we are all conservatives, working for that same team and its objectives. I think some conservatives like to focus in on movement dogma. At best, they help preserve good policy as something akin to scripture. At worst, they are inquisitors. Such extreme examples don’t tolerate natural differences in a large party. The Republican Party of that vision would look something more like the Libertarians. Others are more political by nature and tend to be “solutions-based”.
In that eye, I think McDonnell’s run a good campaign by all means – he’s devoted himself to his message, and if you have a good message, your own politicking on its behalf tends to be much more “positive”. Hence McDonnell’s got a great lead built up and can pretty much – to WaPo’s chagrin – do no wrong. Obama wasn’t a hint less negative in actuality than McCain, nor very honest in his message. But it was focused, it was a great center-left campaign, and he rode it all the way to the bank. Had he governed like his campaign suggested he would his approvals would easily be hanging around 65%.