New Hampshire, which has been bragged about by Democrats for its 2004-2008 elections of Democrat, has a very good chance of switching to red in 2010 in all three of its very wide open races.
The First District’s Representative is in enough trouble that on October 20 Politico highlighted difficulties Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) is having back home with her reputation. As a New Hampshire native I remember her initial campaign in 2006, which was a truly impressive grassroots effort first against a favored primary opponent and then a general election victory over incumbent Jeb Bradley. Of particular import to her campaign was her very liberal anti-war stance and her radical behavior towards Bradley. Politico focused on concerns that she had “gone native,” something that New Hampshireites despise in our elected officials. This was highlighted during the 2009 August recess, where it took several weeks of bi-partisan pressure for Shea-Porter to finally hold an open town hall meeting- and where she kicked out a retired policeman from one of the town halls. The video of the expulsion can be seen here. She is also expected to face a tough Republican in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta.
The Second District’s Representative, Democrat Paul Hodes, is going for retiring Republican Senator Judd Gregg’s seat. He is a two-time elected representative, but suffers from a lack of statewide recognition, being behind in the very preliminary polls and a slight lack of fundraising this quarter compared to his only announced opponent, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.
Lastly, the Second District is wide open. 2008 Republican nominee Jennifer Horn has declared her candidacy, and there are many Republicans and Democrats showing interest daily or already in the race (of particular interest are rumors that former Second District Representative Charles Bass, a Republican who lost to Hodes in 2006, may run for the seat). This is a wide open race on both sides, though Democrat Ann McLane Kuster did raise a fair amount of money in the second quarter of this year.
Of course, all Republican candidates are likely to pick up the nomination of the conservative Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper.
This early in the races, there are many weaknesses on the Republican side of things. These include Horn’s lack of grasp on the issues, something I saw firsthand in a Republican candidate forum I sponsored at Plymouth State University last year. Also, according to numerous sources in New Hampshire (I’ve always wanted to say that), Ayotte’s unpopular choice of bringing in an out-of-state campaign manager and her inability to take strong stances on several issues thus far are hurting her. Thirdly, of course, the simple fact that there are so many Republicans running or expected to run that we could very well end up with a bad candidate in the general election.
Whatever happens over the next eleven months before the primary elections, and no matter who the general election candidates are in these races for Republicans, party activists should keep New Hampshire in their minds as they choose states and campaigns to donate their time, money and other resources. This will be a truly wide-open election, and one that could begin a Republican resurgence in the Northeast.
October 25th, 2009 at 8:50 am
Off topic:
Wake up, America
“Americans voted for change in the last election, they didn’t vote for surrender.”
Are you listening, Prez O?
October 25th, 2009 at 10:57 am
If the GOP can hold the senate seat I will be thrilled. House seats would be just gravy.
October 25th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Some insider tips for you:
The D-2 Congressional Candidate will be Bob Giuda. Get to know him, he’s the best. Horn lacks on the issues.
Ayotte is not the favorite of those who actually vote.
And you somehow missed the fact that Hodes got big publicity when he was seen as the first to skip out on the Country wide scandal.
See the video here:
http://www.nhteapartycoalition.org/tea/2009/10/21/hodes-skips-out-on-oversight-vote/
October 25th, 2009 at 11:30 am
If we’re going to become competitive in the Northeast, it’s going to have to start in New Hampshire. While there are GOP signs of life in states like Connecticutt and Pennsylvania, New Hampshire alone has the potential to become the Republican bastion it always used to be.
October 25th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
NH Insider,
I did miss that fact- unfortunately, I don’t follow NH politics as closely as I used to and would like to. Thank you for letting
me know.
I agree Ayotte is not the favorite of many New Hampshire residents, but I also think the national Republican support she is
receiving will help her. As I said above, however, she is the only official candidate thus far, so it’s not like we can really
start analyzing other potential candidates, is it? (I will readily admit to being wrong if I am.)
Horn definitely lacks on the issues- I like Jim Steiner, myself, but he may not run.
October 25th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
The first congressional district is of great importance. I am working for ssomeone who will listen to his constituents and who we can proudly send to Washington to represent the interests of New Hampshire – not represent Washington to us. Bob Bestani is, without question, the most qualified candidate New Hampshire has seen in quite a while.
October 25th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
I’m hoping Charlie Bass gets in and returns to the House.
Regarding Ayotte. . .is her choice of an out-of-state campaign manager really an issue? People in NH care about that? They must be doing pretty darn good up there to have the luxury of worrying about such petty things.
October 25th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
From # 6: “. . .send to Washington to represent the interests of New Hampshire – not represent Washington to us. . .”
That’s an interesting comment. This is exactly how most voters feel. . .about their own Representatives. But when another member of Congress votes in his or her own district’s best interests, the rest of the country freaks out. Case in point: any Rep or Senator from Alaska, who gets roundly condemned as selfish and greedy for trying to bring as much federal funding to AK as possible.
How dare Congressmen think of their own voters when the rest of the country wants that money, right?
October 25th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Alaska Jake,
People in NH don’t like to feel someone is a DC-er. We (they, technically) like to know someone, know they know the issues facing
the state, get the feel that the person is “an average Joe” etc. Bringing in someone from out of state, Ayotte’s attempts to not
voice her opinions on key issues- when asked- while still trying to create a “politician answer” and the support she is getting
from national Republicans put NH residents on guard. Too, we (again, they) tend to be very suspicious when so-called “elites” get
involved in our state.
I agree with you regarding how voters think. We’re all against earmarks until it helps us. One of the biggest problems in America,
since voters decisions are based upon a “how does it help me” mindset as opposed to “is it efficient/effective” or “does it follow
the Constitution.”
Personally, I’m against it all, even for NH. Done, gone, good riddance etc.