Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Gubernatorial Survey
- Chris Christie 43% (39%) [43%] {47%} (50%) [45%]
- Jon Corzine 42% (39%) [40%] {39%} (36%) [37%]
- Chris Daggett 8% (14%) [8%] {5%} (4%) [4%]
Among Democrats
- Jon Corzine 77% (76%) [71%] {77%} (73%) [67%]
- Chris Christie 11% (8%) [12%] {8%} (14%) [17%]
- Chris Daggett 9% (11%) [7%] {7%} (2%) [4%]
Among Republicans
- Chris Christie 86% (81%) [81%] {82%} (81%) [78%]
- Jon Corzine 6% (6%) [11%] {8%} (9%) [10%]
- Chris Daggett 5% (8%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [4%]
Among Independents
- Chris Christie 51% (45%) [49%] {53%} (56%) [47%]
- Jon Corzine 29% (21%) [28%] {30%} (24%) [26%]
- Chris Daggett 10% (22%) [13%] {6%} (11%) [8%]
Among Men
- Chris Christie 49% (40%)
- Jon Corzine 36% (34%)
- Chris Daggett 9% (18%)
Among Women
- Jon Corzine 49% (43%)
- Chris Christie 38% (39%)
- Chris Daggett 7% (11%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Chris Christie: 44% (40%) [41%] {48%} (49%) [50%] / 36% (41%) [39%] {30%} (33%) [26%] {+8%}
- Chris Daggett 22% (28%) [17%] {11%} (11%) / 22% (15%) [8%] {6%} (9%) {0%}
- Jon Corzine: 39% (37%) [40%] {37%} (37%) [41%] / 49% (51%) [49%] {53%} (53%) [50%] {-10%}
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jon Corzine is doing as governor?
- Approve 33% (41%) {34%} (35%) [40%]
- Disapprove 55% (55%) {58%} (58%) [53%]
Among Independents
- Approve 21%
- Disapprove 69%
Among Daggett Supporters
- Approve 9%
- Disapprove 82%
Among Undecided Voters
- Approve 26%
- Disapprove 47%
Regardless of how you will vote, which candidate has the best plan to lower property taxes – Corzine, Christie, Daggett, or none of them?
- Chris Christie 29%
- Jon Corzine 15%
- Chris Daggett 8%
- None of them 37%
Among Independents
- Chris Christie 35%
- Chris Daggett 10%
- Jon Corzine 6%
- None of them 41%
Which candidate has attacked his opponent unfairly in this election?
- Jon Corzine only 29%
- Chris Christie only 10%
- Both of them 44%
Among Independents
- Jon Corzine only 38%
- Chris Christie only 6%
- Both of them 40%
Among Undecided Voters
- Jon Corzine only 20%
- Chris Christie only 3%
- Both of them 50%
Survey of 1,041 likely voters was conducted October 28-30. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 15-18 conducted are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 24-29 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 29 – August 2 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 9-14 are in square brackets. Party ID breakdown: 40% (40%) [37%] {35%} (33%) Democrat; 34% (34%) [37%] {36%} (42%) Independent; 26% (26%) [26%] {29%} (25%) Republican.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:30 am
The BIG question: Who shows up to vote? My guess is that the voting intensity will be greater on the side of saving the state FROM Corzine than it will be to save Corzine’s job.
Caveat: This poll shows women breaking toward Corzine. I honestly have NO idea why that would be. But if I understood women……
November 1st, 2009 at 1:42 am
Jersey polls from just the past week…
November 1st, 2009 at 3:39 am
The women vote would also put in Deeds over McDonnell or at least place the race as a nail-biter, so it seems that the general skepticism over liberalism as it has been manifested this year is slow to catch on with women voters. They tend to lean Democrat in every election, but the margins are never this large.
Perhaps liberalism with the force we’ve seen it have lately simply doesn’t work well with men in this country, hence the need to moderate the Democrat party in most areas.
November 1st, 2009 at 6:43 am
I’m pretty skeptical about the Party breakdown stuff here. Even with Daggett fading badly, Independents should make up greater than a 26% of the electorate; they make up 45% of the whole population. The gap between D and R seems about right though.
November 1st, 2009 at 7:24 am
It looks like New Jersey is going to have tight race. No one doesn’t know who is going to win for Governor in New Jersey. It is hard to tell. Mr. Chrstie is not conservative.
November 1st, 2009 at 7:41 am
“It looks like New Jersey is going to have tight race. No one doesn’t know who is going to win for Governor in New Jersey. It is hard to tell. Mr. Chrstie is not conservative.” I have to disagree with your last sentence because Mr. Christie certainly is not a liberal.
November 1st, 2009 at 7:51 am
Well – our guy is hanging on in polling at least.
Christie is tied or ahead in 5 of the 6 most recent polls. I can’t remember the last time that happened for a Republican in NJ only two days before an election.
RCP Average 10/22 – 10/30 — 42.3 41.3 11.5 Christie +1.0
Monmouth/Gannett 10/28 – 10/30 1041 LV 43 42 8 Christie +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/29 – 10/29 1000 LV 46 43 8 Christie +3
Stockton/Zogby 10/27 – 10/29 1093 LV 39 40 14 Corzine +1
SurveyUSA 10/26 – 10/28 640 LV 43 43 11 Tie
Daily Kos/R2000 10/26 – 10/28 600 LV 42 41 14 Christie +1
Fairleigh Dickinson 10/22 – 10/28 694 LV 41 39 14 Christie +2
Wouldn’t a clean sweep of all 3 contests on Tuesday be just ducky?
November 1st, 2009 at 9:22 am
Regardless of how you will vote, which candidate has the best plan to lower property taxes – Corzine, Christie, Daggett, or none of them?
Chris Christie 29%
Jon Corzine 15%
Chris Daggett 8%
None of them 37%
Which candidate has attacked his opponent unfairly in this election?
Jon Corzine only 29%
Chris Christie only 10%
Both of them 44%
LOL. I bet there’s going to be a 10% voter turnout for this race.
November 1st, 2009 at 10:07 am
Daggett is fading, as one would expect, and that would seem to be good news for Christie:
Corzine’s approval is -22 overall and roughly the same (-21) among undecideds, but it’s -73 among Daggett supporters.
Still, this is going to be decided by turnout, as others have noted, and probably decided ultimately by how many ballots the Dem machine can stuff in the boxes.
November 1st, 2009 at 10:13 am
How can a Gov. with a 33% approval rating even be close? I don’t get it.
November 1st, 2009 at 11:05 am
Corzine’s Big, Fat Political Mistake
By Steve Chapman
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/01/a_big_fat_political_mistake_98964.html
November 1st, 2009 at 1:22 pm
it’s nj, that’s why it is close. think chicago with more sleaze and lots of diners.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:56 pm
NJ’s Governor’s Race: Candidate Plays Loose With Facts?
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=164760653434
November 1st, 2009 at 2:27 pm
From Jon Lerner, the pollster that conducted the Club for Growth poll:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/11/024843.php
November 1st, 2009 at 2:36 pm
#14- But if Dede is this liberal she-devil as the Club for Growth, et al were claiming, then wouldn’t those Republicans go to Owens? You all said that she was even more liberal than Owens but you think her moderate Republican supporters will go to the true conservative guy who stabbed her in the back after he lost the Republication nomination? If the Club for Growth thinks that, then it’s obvious that they were being disingenuous on their attacks on Dede.
November 1st, 2009 at 2:41 pm
LOL, this move will only prove how irrelevant Scozzafava is. Unless PPP found more data in its subsequent, Hoffman was already on his way to blowout after the suspension of her campaign.
SCOZZAFAVA THROWS SUPPORT TO OWENS
http://watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091101/NEWS09/911019992
November 1st, 2009 at 2:56 pm
#16- Why do you focus on the incomplete, unweighted PPP poll with Hoffman ahead instead of the Siena poll- which was completed- that had Owens leading? You clearly just consider evidence which supports the conclusion you want to hear.
November 1st, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Obama camp: Gives up on VA Gov and NY 23
http://thenextright.com/ironman/obama-camp-gives-up-on-va-gov-and-ny-23
November 1st, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Ariel,
The PPP(D) is pretty close to complete, but you can remain in denial. As for weighting, I believe PPP(D) doesn’t do it because you cannot assume that the voting patterns in a special election will mirror those of previous elections. Look at the Daily Kos/Research 2K poll in Virginia. It shows the composition of the electorate as 39% Democrat, the same percentage it was in 2008. Do you really expect the composition of the Virginia electorate to be 39% Democrat in a couple of days?
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/5344632285
November 1st, 2009 at 7:17 pm
I think NJ tends to side AGAINST the incumbent — remember that Bill Bradley, Gov. Whitman, and a few other incumbents almost lost elections where they appeared the heavy favorite.
With Corzine down or up a few points, I’m guessing Christie will pull this one off. But then again, NJ almost always goes Democrat, so who knows.
November 1st, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Obama puts prestige on line for Corzine
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B23B0351-18FE-70B2-A88D1C21BA90DBDD