November 17, 2009

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Los Angeles Poll on Sarah Palin and the Race 4 2012

SurveyUSA Los Angeles Poll on Sarah Palin and the Race 4 2012

Which of these Republicans would make a better president?

  • Mitt Romney 25%
  • Mike Huckabee 19%
  • Sarah Palin 14%
  • Newt Gingrich 11%

Among Conservatives

  • Mitt Romney 27%
  • Mike Huckabee 23%
  • Sarah Palin 18%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%

Among Republicans

  • Mitt Romney 31%
  • Mike Huckabee 26%
  • Sarah Palin 13%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%

Among Independents

  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Newt Gingrich 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Sarah Palin 12%

Among Democrats

  • Mitt Romney 29%
  • Sarah Palin 15%
  • Mike Huckabee 14%
  • Newt Gingrich 7%

Is your opinion of Sarah Palin favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Sarah Palin?

  • Favorable 28%
  • Unfavorable 47%
  • Neutral 18%
  • No Opinion 7%

Among Men

  • Favorable 32%
  • Unfavorable 53%
  • Neutral 10%
  • No Opinion 4%

Among Women

  • Favorable 24%
  • Unfavorable 41%
  • Neutral 25%
  • No Opinion 10%

Among Democrats

  • Favorable 12%
  • Unfavorable 64%
  • Neutral 17%
  • No Opinion 7%

Among Republicans

  • Favorable 47%
  • Unfavorable 25%
  • Neutral 23%
  • No Opinion 5%

Among Independents

  • Favorable 32%
  • Unfavorable 49%
  • Neutral 17%
  • No Opinion 7%

If you were giving advice to Sarah Palin, would you tell her to run for president? Or not?

  • Run 22%
  • Do Not Run 69%

Among Men

  • Run 24%
  • Do Not Run 69%

Among Women

  • Run 21%
  • Do Not Run 70%

Among Republicans

  • Run 30%
  • Do Not Run 58%

Among Independents

  • Run 18%
  • Do Not Run 73%

Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Barack Obama?

  • Favorable 56%
  • Unfavorable 26%
  • Neutral 15%
  • No Opinion 3%

Who do you respect more, Obama or Palin?

  • Obama 69%
  • Palin 22%

Among Men

  • Obama 70%
  • Palin 26%

Among Women

  • Obama 68%
  • Palin 19%

Among Democrats

  • Obama 93%
  • Palin 5%

Among Republicans

  • Palin 48%
  • Obama 40%

Among Independents

  • Obama 65%
  • Palin 24%

Survey of 500 adults in the Los Angeles metropolitan area was conducted November 16. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% Democrat; 27% Republican; 23% Independent. Ideology: 34% Moderate; 29% Conservative; 30% Liberal.

by @ 10:17 am. Filed under 2012 Misc., Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Poll Watch, Sarah Palin
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93 Responses to “Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Los Angeles Poll on Sarah Palin and the Race 4 2012”

  1. OHIO JOE Says:

    The link here is for Lousville.

  2. Huckabee/Pawlenty or Pawlenty/Huckabee Says:

    Blue state, ho hum. I concede it to the Dems and Obama. McCain wasted his time trying to carry Taxifornia.

  3. jerseyrepublican Says:

    What are the points of these 1 day polls of 500 adults? Are they intending to do another one after the book tour to gauge how much, if any, her favorings have improved over that period of time?

  4. Huckabee/Pawlenty or Pawlenty/Huckabee Says:

    CA Republicans
    Mitt Romney 31%
    Mike Huckabee 26%
    Sarah Palin 13%

    Sarah pullin’ from Mike. Delegates awarded by county victories in CA. Looks about split if Sarah decides not to run THIS time around. Otherwise, Mitt will gain the most here.

    But, too little too late.

    Huck will be way ahead by this point. :)

  5. Aron Goldman Says:

    Thanks for the heads-up, Joe. It’s been fixed.

  6. Steven S Says:

    I hate to tell you this but Huck is not going to win California even in the Republican primaries.

  7. Huckabee/Pawlenty or Pawlenty/Huckabee Says:

    Iowa-South Carolina-Florida-Super Tues-Texas delegate gains ALL look great for our next President – Mike Huckabee!!! :)

    Obama – 3 more years, then he’s DONE!

  8. Huckabee/Pawlenty or Pawlenty/Huckabee Says:

    6. And Mitt won’t win Texas or any of the South!

  9. narciso Says:

    A poll of adults, with a 15% democratic advantage, and only 29% conservatives, even Gallup doesn’t believe that part

  10. WSU Says:

    Anyone who thinks that Mike Huckabee is going to be way out in front at ANY time in 2012 is smoking some VERY good drugs.

    The key here is the Ohio plan – the primary system the GOP addopted at the Convention in Minneapolis.

    Iowa goes first – MAYBE a Huckabee win

    New Hampshire goes second – Romney win

    Nevada goes third – Romney win

    South Carolina goes next – this is a toss up. Its a southern state, but it has a tendency to go for moderate candidates at certain points.

    But after that, it isn’t florida or some other state where Huckabee might do well, its the Mountain west, which should be a clean sweep for Romney. After that, it roates, with as many Romney states as Huckabee states in any of the three rotating classes.

  11. Aron Goldman Says:

    The following e-mail from Palin just hit my inbox:

    Dear Friends,

    There are so many fundamental decisions that must be made in America to move us forward as a free, safe, and patriotic nation! I’m thankful tonight for what feels like a new beginning as we seize opportunities to help put America on the right path.

    It’s November 17th, and I’ve finished my book. I’ve told my story of how I got to where I am, and now I’m eager to move forward. And I want you to join me on the road ahead!

    Our nation is at a critical crossroads, but the way forward is clear. Ronald Reagan showed us the way. He entered office during an economic recession even worse than our current one, but he left office after overseeing the largest peacetime economic expansion in American history. His policies worked! He charted the course for us.

    C. S. Lewis once wrote: “We all want progress, but if you are on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road.” We need to get back on the right road. In order to progress, we must return to our founding principles of limited government, fiscal responsibility, and strong national defense.

    SarahPAC is dedicated to this!

    We’re going to work as Commonsense Conservatives for everyday, hardworking Americans by tackling issues that you care about and by helping candidates who will stand up for our nation. We’ll help candidates (regardless of party) who have the courage to go to Washington or serve statewide and make the tough decisions needed to get our country back on track.

    We can’t do this alone – this effort needs good, commonsense Americans now more than ever. Please click here if you can assist with SarahPAC today.

    SarahPAC supporters make it possible to get out there and fight for what we believe in. Please stand with us today. We won’t let anyone tell us to sit down and shut up. We’re going to stand up, stand together, and fight for what’s right!

    Thank you so much for your support and for your love of our country. My book, Going Rogue, is dedicated to you – to Patriots – who fight for freedom!

    With an Alaska Heart,

    Sarah Palin

    P.S. We are going to be all across the country in the next few weeks. If you’re able to contribute, click the button to go back to the SarahPAC homepage to see the schedule.

    P.P.S. Any level of support is welcome! Our Commonsense Conservative cause needs you. As a special offer, on behalf of SarahPAC, we will send you a signed copy of Going Rogue for any donation of $100 or more.

    Please know how grateful I am for your support.

  12. Steven S Says:

    I’d say in a general election the south will vote for Romney vs. Obama. Mormonism won’t be an issue with a liberal out of control black president in power. Even as a Romney supporter, I know Huckabee and Palin would win the south, but what about those purple states like Ohio and Florida? Michigan, Colorado, or Nevada? We need to unite the nation, not continue this red/blue divide.

  13. Steven S Says:

    From Wikipedia: The largest Christian denominations by number of adherents in 2000 were the Roman Catholic Church with 10,079,310; The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints with 529,575; and the Southern Baptist Convention with 471,119. Jewish congregations had 994,000 adherents.[33]

    The state has the most Roman Catholics of any state and a large Protestant population, a large American Jewish community, and an American Muslim population.

    Where is this large group of Evangelicals who will back Huckabee in California?

  14. Steven S Says:

    California 2008 primaries

    Evangelicals: 35%, McCain 33, Romney 32, Huckabee 26
    NonEvangelicals: 65%, McCain 49, Romney 35, Rudy 6, Huckabee 5

  15. Steven S Says:

    The schedule won’t be the same like 2008.

  16. marK Says:

    These are good numbers for Mitt. However, the primaries are still more than two years away. That is an eternity in politics.

  17. Huckabee/Pawlenty or Pawlenty/Huckabee Says:

    Do you even bother to read Aron’s post above? This is NOT 2008, my Romney fan friend. : )

    Survey of 500 adults in the Los Angeles metropolitan area was conducted November 16.

    Among Republicans

    Mitt Romney 31%
    Mike Huckabee 26%
    Sarah Palin 13%
    Newt Gingrich 12%

    Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Barack Obama?

    Favorable 56%
    Unfavorable 26%

    –Like I said forget about Deep Dark Blue Taxifornia! I guarantee Obama carries it again.

  18. OHIO JOE Says:

    “Thanks for the heads-up, Joe. It’s been fixed.” Thank you Aron.

  19. Huckabee/Pawlenty or Pawlenty/Huckabee Says:

    Winning the Bush states IS what it’s ALL about. Not NY or CA where Obama will dominate and win easily.

    Think Bush states, baby! That’s the winning formula. Mike & Tim can carry those

    … plus Minnesota!!!

  20. Aron Goldman Says:

    Republicans and 2012
    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/republicans-and-2012.html

    I was interested to see David Plouffe comment that the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee might come from outside the roster of the current top contenders. I don’t know if it will or not, but I think for the GOP to win next time around it will have to be.

    Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee have all been through a national campaign now. They’re relatively well known. And they just aren’t that popular. On our last round of 2012 polling all three had favorabilities in the 30s- 36% for Palin, 34% for Romney, and 33% for Huckabee. And while Palin had the most admirers she also had by far the most detractors with 51% of the country holding an unfavorable opinion of her.

    Perhaps there’s a way one of these folks can rebrand themselves to become more appealing but to me it looks more like Bob Dole in 1996 all over again- you nominate someone who’s already proven to be a Presidential loser and you get results pretty similar to the last time around.

    All three of these folks reinforce the negative perceptions that much of the country holds about the Republican Party. The GOP needs a fresh face that challenges people’s assumptions about who Republicans are and is visibly not just going to be George W. Bush under another name. I don’t know who that person is, but he/she needs to emerge if the party is going to win back the White House in 2012.

  21. Aron Goldman Says:

    Sarah Palin hates her ’sexist’ Newsweek cover. Does she really?
    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedishrag/2009/11/sarah-palin-hates-her-newsweek-cover-really-1.html

    Former beauty queen and right-wing party girl Sarah Palin is all bent out of shape about her sexy pose on the cover of “Newsweek.” She says it’s “out of context” since it was originally shot for Runner’s World magazine.

    Funny, that looks more like a beauty queen’s pose than a runner’s to us. We don’t look like that when we run. Do you?

    This from the Alaskan governor who quit halfway into her term to do the speaker circuit and write a book for a lot of money? If she doesn’t take her political career seriously enough to stick out her term, why should the media or the people?

    And seriously, it’s not like she didn’t play the sexy girl in those bright red Naughty Monkey shoes during the campaign.

    Read what she posted on her Facebook page in response to Newsweek’s choice of cover photo.

    The choice of photo for the cover of this week’s Newsweek is unfortunate. When it comes to Sarah Palin, this “news” magazine has relished focusing on the irrelevant rather than the relevant. The Runner’s World magazine one-page profile for which this photo was taken was all about health and fitness — a subject to which I am devoted and which is critically important to this nation. The out-of-context Newsweek approach is sexist and oh-so-expected by now. If anyone can learn anything from it: it shows why you shouldn’t judge a book by its cover, gender, or color of skin. The media will do anything to draw attention — even if out of context”.

    Oh, Sarah, just lie back and submit to the publicity you have been trying so hard to get to sell your book.

  22. Aron Goldman Says:

    Sarah Palin: Election Took Toll on Family
    Palin Opens Up to Barbara Walters: ‘Our Life Has Become Kind of a Reality Show’
    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Palin/sarah-palin-private-life-family-letterman-levi/story?id=9105980
    http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=9103571

    Sarah Palin On GMA: ‘I’m Fine With Who I Am’
    http://www.limelife.com/blog-entry/Sarah-Palin-On-GMA-Im-Fine-With-Who-I-Am/26428.html

    Lou Dobbs On “Today” Show: I Wouldn’t Vote For Sarah Palin (VIDEO)
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/17/lou-dobbs-on-today-show-i_n_360410.html

    Lou Dobbs: The Anti-Palin
    http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/11/lou_dobbs_the_anti-palin.php

    Three hours after Sarah Palin’s interview on Oprah finished, Lou Dobbs was interviewed on Fox News. While both are called “populists,” their appearances could not have been more different.

    Palin spoke about the usual: complained about mistreatment by McCain staffers and the media, engaged in a spat with her almost-son-in-law, and defended herself all the way. She was retrospective, backbiting, and virtually silent about the trouble millions face during the worst economy in a lifetime. Dobbs could have come off the same way during his chat with Bill O’Reilly: slam his ex-boss, blame the media, say he did no wrong, and rip the president as a mortal threat to freedom in America as Palin has done everywhere but Oprah.

    Instead, he was the anti-Palin. Dobbs did not complain about the way he was treated by CNN, saying it didn’t force him out and its executives treated him well. He barely griped about his usual targets: immigration groups and The New York Times. Dobbs even said he was partially to blame for CNN’s low ratings; Palin said she wasn’t why McCain lost the election. Finally, Dobbs said Barack Obama is “not the devil,” but a man whose policy choices are difficult to understand.

    Palin and Dobbs said they want to be on the national scene going forward, and that probably means politics, either as commentators or as candidates. From the looks of an admittedly short interview, Dobbs could make for a potent candidate. The message he sent could be encapsulated as, “This is not about me, don’t worry about me. This is about you who are ignored by the the media, the parties, and the government–all of whom sold the middle class down the river.” Palin’s message has been constant self-defense, few policy prescriptions, and little focus on the problems of Joe the Plumbers. With more than 15 million Americans out of work, the bailout regime mostly intact, and few new jobs to show for billions spent to stimulate the economy, which message has greater resonance?

    Populism is the attempt to turn the political debate into “us versus them” and appealing to “us” with ad hoc ideas. Populism is also the prerogative to represent “them.” Palin is representing herself right now, not trying to give voice to those Americans who feel like they’ve been left in the lurch. Dobbs tries to represent those who are middle class, politically independent, and upset. That sort of populism has room to grow in a shrunken economy. Maybe the talk show host should trade jobs with the politician.

  23. narciso Says:

    Ah, Elizabeth Snead, the clueless one from last fall, who didn’t understand that an open shotgun
    didn’t fire, and took an election
    eve skit seriously. She was properly ridiculed as far away
    as Australia, for that.

  24. WSU Says:

    “This is NOT 2008″

    You’re telling US that? Yet you continue to sprout this nonsense about Huckabee taking Florida, etc.?

    Listen closely: THE PRIMARY SCHEDULE HAS CHANGED. FLORIDA WILL COME LATER IN THE SEASON, AS WILL SOUTHERN STATES. After the first four states, which should be, at worst, a 50/50 split for Romney, the voting will move to a group of states which HEAVILY favor Romney – Idaho, Montana,Wyoming, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Vermont, Maine,etc.

    Theoretically, Palin may also pull out a win or two – Alaska is in the grouping as well.

    But NOWHERE in the new schedule is there an opportunity for Rev. Hickabee and his roving band of Squirrel Hunters to gain a substantial lead.

  25. Micah Says:

    #24. Thas funny stuff right there.;)

  26. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Besides that, Romney slaughtered Huckabee in Florida, and will get a lot more of the McCain voters than Huckabee.

  27. OHIO JOE Says:

    Yeah it is funny because we do not know what the primary schedule is.

  28. marK Says:

    HPrPH,

    Whether Barack Obama takes California or not in the General is immaterial to the primaries. California is still the biggest prize of them all.

  29. WSU Says:

    “Yeah it is funny because we do not know what the primary schedule is.”

    Not the exact order, but the GOP addopted the Ohio Plan at the convention – the first four states (IA, NH, NV, SC) will maintain their order, then come a group of small states and territories (disporportionately in the Mountain West and Northeast – two Romney Regions), then come three groups of states, which will rotate each cycle. In each group of states, there are at least as many potential Romney wins as Huckabee wins.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:The_Ohio_Plan.svg

  30. OHIO JOE Says:

    “California is still the biggest prize of them all.” True, but it is not a winner take all state.

  31. WSU Says:

    “True, but it is not a winner take all state.”

    True, but it is not a truly porportional state either – and unless you can show me where Huckabee would have a significant base of support, its unlikely that he will capture many delagates.

  32. WSU Says:

    McCain only beat Romney by 7% in CA in 2008, yet won 116 of the 119 del. votes.

  33. marK Says:

    WSU,

    I’ve done some quick searches on the web. Everything I’ve seen suggests that the Ohio Plan is not official. The most that has happened is a committee has been formed to study it. Which we all know means precisely squat.
    \

  34. OHIO JOE Says:

    Even if we assume that the Ohio plan is a for sure go, I do not see Mr. Romney winning places like Guam and the US Virgin Islands. As for CA, if Mr. Romney can only beat Mr. Huckabee by 6 in LA, it is not likely that he will win many interior CDs.

  35. WSU Says:

    It may not be completely official yet….

    But there isn’t much incentive for states to rush forward this cycle. Look at the 2008 system: the later states ended up making the decision, not those which jumped ahead.

  36. WSU Says:

    “As for CA, if Mr. Romney can only beat Mr. Huckabee by 6 in LA, it is not likely that he will win many interior CDs.”

    Innercities are poorer and more religious than other areas. Huckabee should be doing better in LA, not Romney.

  37. OHIO JOE Says:

    McCain only beat Romney by 7% in CA in 2008, yet won 116 of the 119 del. votes.

    I believe Mr. Romney won 15 delegates in CA.

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=6&f=0&off=0&elect=2

  38. WSU Says:

    rgrdls.

    McCain won by a small amount, but took nearly all the delegates.

  39. OHIO JOE Says:

    “Innercities are poorer and more religious than other areas. Huckabee should be doing better in LA, “not Romney.

    In 2008, he actually did a bit better outside LA especially in the interior.

  40. DaveG Says:

    It’s pretty clear that Romney and Huckabee are going to split the country right along Mason-Dixon during the 2012 Republican primaries. The question is whether the big Romney states like NY and CA will maintain some sort of winner take all system, which pretty much would ensure a Romney nomination.

  41. BOSMAN Says:

    WOW! WOW! WOW!

    No Weekend Show on Fox!
    No Daily Appearances on Fox News!
    No Fox Sponsored Christmas Book signing tour!
    No Whining Book Tour!
    No Oprah interviews!
    No Published Daily Tweets!
    Mitt just plods along in places like VA, NJ, PA, SC, CA RAISING MONEY and Campaigning for CONSERVATIVE Republicans. UNDER EVERYONE’S RADAR?
    I GUESS NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ROMNEY / DeMINT in 2012
    NO BETTER TICKET!

  42. Heath Says:

    Mitt is killing em in all the big states!

    That’s how McCain won and it’s how Mitt will win if he has to!

  43. Texasconserv Says:

    Then why has Romney dropped on intrade?? They don’t even have his name at the top anymore. Pawlenty is ahead of Romney.

    Why the surge for Pawlenty? Why the drop of Romney?

  44. BOSMAN Says:

    #43

    Pawlenty would make a great vp for someone:

    Good & Pawlenty in 2012!
    (It does have a nice ring to it)

  45. BOSMAN Says:

    CORRECTION (and sounds so much better)
    #43

    Pawlenty would make a great vp for someone:

    Good & Pawlenty in 2020!
    (It does have a nice ring to it)

  46. OHIO JOE Says:

    “Why the surge for Pawlenty? Why the drop of Romney?” Because the gamblers know that of the two, people prefer Mr. Pawlenty over Mr. Romney. Mr. Romney is losing control of his campaign.

  47. marK Says:

    OHIO.#46:“Mr. Romney is losing control of his campaign.”

    What campaign? How can one lose control of a non-existent campaign?

  48. BOSMAN Says:

    #46
    If your a betting man, you should give it a whirl. Just don’t mortgage the house!

    ROMNEY / DeMINT in 2012!

  49. OHIO JOE Says:

    “What campaign? How can one lose control of a non-existent campaign?”
    OK, you have a point, it is only 2009 instead of 2011. However, I for one do not think the Romney camp is winning many friends lately. So far this week, Survey USA polled a Blue state and teo cities. If he can only do so well in these places, how is he going to do in the rural areas and Red states?

  50. BOSMAN Says:

    Food for thought;

    Huckabee will have to decide by the end of next year whether to GIVE UP his Fox Contract. I noticed, He’s packing on the weight! he must like the GOOD LIVING? If he looses the nomination (he would) Fox wount take him back1 he’ll be like Buchanan, with NO PLACE TO GO!

  51. OHIO JOE Says:

    “If your a betting man, you should give it a whirl. Just don’t mortgage the house!” No, I won’t mortgage the house, but I shall donate to SarahPAC for now and then if she is out of the picture, anybody who can beat Mr. Romney.

  52. BOSMAN Says:

    #51,
    Your ANTI ROMNEY feelings are showing. I’d back Palin, or Huckabee, if they get the nod. I’m sure that WON’T HAPPEN!!!

  53. OHIO JOE Says:

    “Your ANTI ROMNEY feelings are showing.” You want a prize for figuring that out?

  54. marK Says:

    OHIO:“I shall donate to … anybody who can beat Mr. Romney.”

    You won’t be donating any money then? :-)

  55. BOSMAN Says:

    #53,
    Do you think the new MEDIA SENSATION GLEN BECK will back Romney?

  56. OHIO JOE Says:

    “You won’t be donating any money then? ” Cool! I can waste more of it in real estate then.

    “#53,
    Do you think the new MEDIA SENSATION GLEN BECK will back Romney?” No clue; as of now, I doubt it.

  57. BOSMAN Says:

    #56,

    Beck backed him in 08 when NO ONE was watching him on CNN. I think he will! Nothing has changed!

  58. narciso Says:

    It’s a tour for a memoir, but she certainly is espousing policy stances, already on Rush and apparently on Barbara Walters, Why would Lou grovel so much to CNN, which seems willing to discard one of its few assets so readily, and slamming Palin and her supporters isn’t going to help him either

  59. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I just looked at the california GOP primary. Huckabee did not beat Romney in a single county. Mitt did almost as well in the rest of the state, as he did in LA County. LA county was 44 McCain, Mitt 35%, and Huckabee 10%. Statewide, it was McCain 42.2%, Mitt 34.6, and Huckabee 11.6. So, it’s true that Huck did slightly better outside of LA county than within, but not enough to win any, except one or two.

  60. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I don’t know whether or not Beck will snap out of his infatuation in time or not. He did say on O’Reilly recently that Mitt may be the only one that can tackle all the problems Obama is calling, albeit reluctantly.

  61. WSU Says:

    “He did say on O’Reilly recently that Mitt may be the only one that can tackle all the problems Obama is calling, albeit reluctantly.”

    I can accept that – who wouldn’t love to have the most ideologically sound, culture warrior, etc. candidate that you could? How nice would it be if experience didn’t matter?

    If it weren’t for the need for seirous experience, I’d be a huge Palin fan.

  62. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    By the above I mean that Beck said it reluctantly.

  63. Paulee Says:

    Mitt held his own and was second to McCain most of the primaries. Of it was not a plan to team up on Mitt and railroad him, he could have won. But when the good old boys networked and turned the tides on him in Florida..that was critical…and then to hear it was John McCain’s turn…Really!!!!! Well people don’t fall into that same trap again. Get out and vote for ability, smarts, well spoken, knowledgeable, steel trap mind, morally sound, experienced in private sector and one who said, “Washington is Broken.” Well folks, more broke now than ever….Better pick someone that can see Obama eye to eye..Last I saw…That was Mitt Romney 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Even won in Maine primary…..and we are a blue state…I am working my tush off to Paint Maine Red……with Mitt as our next President….

  64. BOSMAN Says:

    63,
    Mitt lost the primary because of JEB BUSH. Jeb endorsed Mitt, THROUGH a few staff members his way, then, DID NOTHING! Christ endorses McCAIN, SHADOWS HIM! and NOW YOU KNOW THE REAT OF THE STORY!

  65. BOSMAN Says:

    CORRECTION (my fingers are faster than my brain)
    63,
    Mitt lost the primary because of JEB BUSH. Jeb endorsed Mitt, THROUGH a few staff members his way, then, DID NOTHING! Christ endorses McCAIN, SHADOWS HIM! and NOW YOU KNOW THE REST OF THE STORY!

  66. Governor Rick Perry Says:

    OHIO JOE:
    “Even if we assume that the Ohio plan is a for sure go, I do not see Mr. Romney winning places like Guam and the US Virgin Islands. . . .”

    Actually, a full 25% of American Samoa residents are LDS. I don’t know about the others, but Mitt should at least be confident in securing the Samoan delegates.

  67. jerseyrepublican Says:

    65 – Mitt lost the primary last year because he didn’t want to squander any more of his family fortune on a lost cause. The fact that he wasted so much of his own money really makes me wonder how good of ficon he really is?

  68. jerseyrepublican Says:

    66 – I thought LDS members don’t believe in identity politics? That’s what I’ve been hearing from the Rombots.

  69. BOSMAN Says:

    #66,
    Hawaii would be interesting as well for the same reason. OBAMA vs. Romney, that is!

  70. David Schmidt Says:

    This is a wonderful poll for Huckabee.

    The Fresno County 2008 primary results:
    Romney 38%
    McCain 37%
    Huckabee 15%

    SurveyUSA Fresno-Visalia Poll
    Which of these Republicans would make a better president?
    Mike Huckabee 25%
    Mitt Romney 21%
    Sarah Palin 17%
    Newt Gingrich 11%

    The LA County 2008 primary results:
    McCain 44%
    Romney 35%
    Huckabee 10%

    SurveyUSA Los Angeles Poll
    Which of these Republicans would make a better president?
    Mitt Romney 25%
    Mike Huckabee 19%
    Sarah Palin 14%
    Newt Gingrich 11%

  71. David Schmidt Says:

    “The question is whether the big Romney states like NY and CA will maintain some sort of winner take all system, which pretty much would ensure a Romney nomination.”

    California doesn’t have winner take all. It is 3 delegates for each congressional district won.

  72. Governor Rick Perry Says:

    66-I don’t know if they do or not. But a large LDS pop sure seemed to help him in NV.

    Side Note: jersey, your sanctimony is unbecoming.

    69-Never thought of that. Good point Bosman.

  73. Governor Rick Perry Says:

    CORRECTION:
    *68*-I don’t know if they do or not. But a large LDS pop sure seemed to help him in NV.

    Side Note: jersey, your sanctimony is unbecoming.

    69-Never thought of that. Good point Bosman.

  74. jerseyrepublican Says:

    68 – my sanctimony…how so?

  75. Governor Rick Perry Says:

    74-see 65

  76. marK Says:

    #68.Jersey:“I thought LDS members don’t believe in identity politics?”

    They don’t, at least not the better part of them. But nobody is perfect, and the Mormons are no exception. Having said that, I would say that the biggest advantage Romney has in high-LDS areas is that people know the truth about members of his church. They know devout Mormons are good, honest, hard-working citizens worthy of the highest trust. So they can judge him on his merits, not on his religion. And the merits say he is one of the best candidates we’ve got.

    Also high LDS areas just happen to be near the site of Mitt’s greatest triumph, the rescue of the 2002 Olympics. So people in the West don’t think of Mitt Romney so much as the former Governor of Massachusetts but as the Rescuer of the Olympics. You can grouse and complain about this or that in Mitt’s tenure as Governor, but there is no denying his achievement in rescuing the Olympics — that is, unless you are determined to discount Romney. But such a person generally has other problems — the dislike of Romney being the least of them. Honest people, however, recognize his achievement as being one of Olympic proportions — and the people in the West know that.

    However, 2012 will be ten years after that feat, and time fades all things. Romney will also be out of office for six years. His effective shelf life will be nearing an end. Just as I have a statute of limitations on stupidity, I also have one on achievement. When I cast my vote in 2012, I will not be voting for the 2002 edition of Mitt Romney, nor his 2006 edition, or even his 2008 edition. I will be considering Mitt’s 2012 edition along side the 2012 editions of Huckabee and Pawlenty. (Sorry, I just don’t see Sarah running in 2012.) Who will be the best in the field in two years? Only time will tell.

  77. jerseyrepublican Says:

    75 – I’m not sure what 65 has to do with my, supposed, sanctimonious behavior? I could say Giuliani lost in Florida because Crist endorsed McCain at the last minute when it seemed as if he was going to endorse Giuliani all along. If Giuliani won Florida, then that would’ve taken him into Super Tuesday where he would’ve won NY, NJ, Conn, a good portion of CA, etc… He probably would have won the nomination if that had occured. BUT he didn’t.

  78. jerseyrepublican Says:

    76 – interesting. I may not agree with your assessment about the Olympics…sure he did a fine job but a whole lot of people could have done that job. Many countries and cities have people who have performed the same task as Mitt and theirs was just as a success that Salt Lake was. I do wish your chosen candidate good luck though.

  79. Governor Rick Perry Says:

    77: Oops–I meant 67 (not 65). Tonight is not my night.

  80. marK Says:

    Jersey.#78.

    You are welcome to go back through the history books and find some Olympics that dug themselves out of the equivalent massive hole the SLC games were in –AND– ended up reimbursing every dime spent by local, state, and national governments –AND– turned a hefty profit after it was all done.

    If you can do that, then you might have a point. If not…

  81. jerseyrepublican Says:

    79 – just joking around. I’m really not sure why it is okay for a lot of people around her, not necessarily you, to make fun of Palin and it’s fine but if you make fun of Romney it is heretical?

  82. marK Says:

    Jersey,

    And while you’re at it, the Olympics must have a minimum of logistical problems. The buses have to run on time, traffic jams must be held at a minimum, events must keep on schedule, even when the weather doesn’t fully cooperate — an especial problem for the Winter Games.

    One international visitor to the SLC games was quoted on National TV as saying, “They may be Mormons, but they are running these games like they were Germans”.

    One anecdote illustrates Mitt’s hands-on approach to management. There was a traffic snarl. Up came an official vehicle and out pops Mitt Romney. He then starts directing traffic in the slush, snow, and freezing wind until a traffic cop shows up. Mitt then went to make sure the cause of the snarl was corrected and never would occur again.

    Hard-working. Hands-on. Not afraid to get his hands dirty even at discomfort to himself. I don’t know about how people in New Jersey feel, but those are attributes that are greatly admired in the American West.

  83. BOSMAN Says:

    82,
    A better example is when Mitt ran Baine and he took over and SAVED STAPLES!!!!!!!

  84. jerseyrepublican Says:

    Staples is a good example of successful Mitt! Isn’t Baine an investment firm? Is there any record of the amount of, for lack of a better phrase, corporate raidering that occurred during his tenure there. I’m not trying to be a d***, I just know that is an essential element of that industry and it could come back to haunt Mitt in the General…if he makes it there.

  85. marK Says:

    BOSMAN.#83,

    He didn’t save Staples. He financed the startup.

    The founder of Staples was looking for start-up capital. He went to a number of VC firms. They all told him that their business sources told them they didn’t spend enough on office supplies to justify a Staples. He told them to actually examine the invoices. They were too lazy to. Then he came to Bain Capital. Bain asked their business sources how much they spent on office supplies. The reply was not enough to justify a Staples. The founder told Mitt Romney to check the invoices. Mitt did, making him the only one out of a long stream of Venture Capitalists that did that. He discovered the founder was right.

    Mitt put up the capital. He was there in the first store the night before the Grand Opening helping to stock the shelves. The rest (as they say) is history.

  86. marK Says:

    Here’s a reference to the startup of Staples told by Mitt Romney.

  87. marK Says:

    #84.jersey,

    Excellent question. The best I can answer is, I don’t think so. Bain didn’t do raiding. That wasn’t their style. By that, I mean they never went out on the prowl looking for firms to take over and gut. There were no hostile takeovers.

    There were firms that they helped make profitable, but those firms always came to them, not the other way ’round.

    Now don’t hold me to this since I have not done an exhaustive search on Mitt’s business ventures, but that is the impression I’ve gotten in reading about his history on multiple sites both pro- and con-. The cons always highlight any jobs that were eliminated — and you would expect that — but I don’t remember a single instance of any investment company directly connected to Mitt Romney doing a “raid”.

    What Bain did in the years Mitt was not affiliated with them, I cannot say.

  88. Governor Rick Perry Says:

    Not directly thread relevant, but I have been calculating the likely outcome of a Obama/Romney match-up in 2012.

    Basically I looked at the past 4 election cycles (i.e. ‘96, ‘00, ‘04, and ‘08) and considered the percentage results in each state–how close was the race, what candidate edged out the other in a tight race, what is the history of GOP vs Dem victories, etc.

    Then, to decide how certain non-obvious states would break (there were more than I thought), I factored in the relative “favorability” of the then current political environment for each of the candidates, and any extraordinary traits that might make a candidate more or less favorable in one state or another.

    I realize that a “prediction” like this is necessarily subjective to some degree, but I think it is pretty accurate given all the available data. Also, by considering each of the past 4 elections, I am confident that this prediction factors in MOST of the “candidate scenarios” that the voting public can be faced with:

    -96: popular incumbent vs. weak challenger
    -00: no incumbent. A “base favorite” GOP candidate vs. member of previous administration
    -04: incumbent w/ middling popularity vs. decent challenger
    -08: no incumbent. A sub-par GOP candidate (whose candidacy was characterized as a continuation of the unpopular previous administration) vs. a wildly popular DEM candidate

    I believe that in 2012 that the public’s choice can be accurately characterized thus:

    -12: incumbent w/ middling popularity but unpopular policies vs. a strong GOP candidate that decisively won the nomination (although not a “base favorite”) whose skill set would satisfy an important need.

    In any event, based on every factor–quantitative and qualitative–that I could think of, I predict:

    Romney receives ……………………….. 274 – 290 electoral votes

    Obama receives ………………………… 248 – 264 electoral votes

    Thus, Romney is a sure thing. He will be our next president . . . in 3 years

    The reason there is a “range” is that I was not able to predict–at least with any degree of confidence–the outcomes of the following states:

    -Iowa (7 votes)
    -New Hampshire (4 votes)
    -New Mexico (5 votes)

    So those 3 states are the real “swing states” for this match-up. Fortunately for Romney, none of them are very valuable.

    Let me know what you think of my prediction. I know many here will agree and many will disagree–all with spirited fervor. But let the record show that I called it.

  89. BOSMAN Says:

    #84,
    See 85, 86, 87!

  90. jerseyrepublican Says:

    87, 89 – Interesting. Thanks for the info. See…Palin supporters and Romney supporters can have civil correspondance. Of course I can admit I don’t always practice that.

  91. BOSMAN Says:

    #90,
    I’m equally Guilty!

  92. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    #88, thanks for you hard work…good job.

  93. Competent Conservative Says:

    #67

    “Mitt lost the primary last year because he didn’t want to squander any more of his family fortune on a lost cause. The fact that he wasted so much of his own money really makes me wonder how good of ficon he really is?”

    Way to spin the fact that Mitt was unselfish by willing to part with his own money. That’s first. But I have to say Jersey, I think Dotan has you beat on the Negative Mitt Vemom.

    You’ve got a ways till you catch up. I’d prefer you exercised your powers of positivity, but if you must go that route, know that you are being far spent by Dotan. I’m sorry to tell you that you are not THE most negative. Sorry.

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