So there was an interesting Pawlenty poll out yesterday, showing that Obama would win Minnesota 49-40 in a head to head matchup. Obviously, this is a less than ideal result, though it’s hard to compare it without any info on other matchups. Still, there was all kinds of encouraging data in the robust poll results, which I think is worth pointing out. First, let’s take a look at some of sampling stuff. One thing that I thought was interesting: generic Republican numbers seem to be, in contrast to other polls, fading in this Minnesota poll. In their 2008 poll, Democrats were trusted to handle the state’s problems by a 35 to 30 margin. Now, they’re trusted by a 36 to 26 margin.
The party affiliation numbers seem reasonable: they have a 33 to 25 breakdown. In 2008 it was 40% to 36%. So perhaps we have a mildly oversampled Democratic electorate, but there’s nothing you can pin to definitive bias. But, here’s the really interesting part: they also ask all the independents to put themselves in a political party. When that’s done, we get very curious results: Democrats go to 46% of the electorate while Republicans bump up to a scant 32%. In other words, when you include leaners, the Democrats have a 14% Party ID edge. And yet Pawlenty only loses by 9. Assuming that neither one of them is winning a substantial portion of the opposition party (and that’s what the poll shows), that means that Pawlenty is winning 70% of the electorate that doesn’t lean any which way.
Even if we assume that this poll is on the level and the party ID numbers don’t tilt heavily to the Democrats, Pawlenty is still performing well above expectations. There’s also an interesting “thermometer” gauge, which is supposed to measure how warmly Minnesotans view various individuals. The obvious political figures are included (Palin, Pawlenty, Obama, Franken, and Klobuchar), but so are some oddballs like Olberrmann, Beck, and Limbaugh. Barack Obama gets a 58 (out of 100), Amy Klobuchar get a 56, Pawlenty gets a 53, and Franken gets a 43. This polling agency has asked the same questions for years and, contrary to the media narrative, Pawlentys pretty much where he’s always been; in 2008 he scored a 53 and in 2005 he scored a 51. All the talk about an “absentee Governor” apparently hasn’t affected him one jot.
They also break down these numbers by sub-group. We learn, for instance, that Pawlenty has by far the highest “warm” rating with members of the Minnesota Independence Party. He’s at 61; no one else cracks 50. We also learn that Pawlenty is almost as popular as Al Franken with Democrat leaning Independents- 47 warm versus 51. No one else gets close to that level of warmness with independents leaning towards the opposite party. But, perhaps most interestingly, they break down the numbers by place residence: central urban, suburban Twin Cities, other cities, township, etc. Every conservative leaning figured polled does best in the Twin Cities suburbs, which is no huge surprise. I’ve outlined, elsewhere, that Republicans MUST rack up points in the Twin Cities suburbs to have a chance.
But, Pawlenty doesn’t only do well in this region; he does unusually well. It may be, taken as a chunk, the most Republican region of the state, but it’s still not Republican. Klobuchar and Obama both crack 50 here (52 and 50 respectively), which is higher than everyone besides Pawlenty; he hits an almost astonishing 62. Sarah Palin, for instance, manages only a 42; just 4 points higher than her overall score of 38. Limbaugh manages just 38; just 7 points higher than his overall score. Pawlenty manages to run 9 points ahead of his overall score here, 20 points ahead of Palin, 10 points ahead of Obama, and 12 points ahead of Klobuchar. Pawlenty OWNS the suburbs. He also does pretty well, relatively speaking, in both central urban areas and the “other metro” category. He runs weakly in the township category (presumably rural areas).
What does all this mean? Well, it suggests that Pawlenty is well-liked by voters who don’t like Republicans. These voters are, as multiple data points show suburban and urban weak leaning Democrats and independents. Given what we know about the Obama coalition, and its difficulty in bringing on PRECISELY those voters (urban and suburban blue-collar Democrats and independents), this doesn’t seem like a bad place to be in a general election.
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Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com and at his Pawlentyesque blog
November 19th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Good analysis with regards to Mr. Pawlenty. On policy matters, I am a Palinite and not a Pawlentyite because, I prefer Mrs. Palin’s position on Energy and the Environment and I like the way she promotes Conservatism. However, I do feel comfortable enough with Mr. Pawlenty because he is fairly Conservative and he does not promote Liberalism. If Mrs. Palin does not run for office, I will most likely convert (if you will) and become a Pawlentyite (assuming I would be granted enterence in their camp.) While it is too soon to tell because most American do not know Mr. Pawlenty (or know him well,) I do think that he will probably be electable. He is experienced and he is a fresh face which most of us can live with. I do have concerns about his lack of charisma, but there is still time for him to work on it. While I think most non M & M ers would convert to Pawlentyism if the were the senario, Mr. Pawlenty also most convince us that he is able to compeat with M & M otherwise most will hold their nose and vote for one of the Ms. Finally, Mr. Pawlenty might have to deal with Mr. Johnson entering the race as a somewhat serious candidate and it is too soon to know what Mr. Pawlenty should do about that.
November 19th, 2009 at 9:37 am
“It may be, taken as a chunk, the most Republican region of the state, but it’s still not Republican.”
that seems dubious to me. Minnesota sends 3 Repubs to the US House and all are from the Twin Cities suburbs. one is a sort-of-moderate in a swing district (Paulsen) but the others are Kline and Bachmann, two of the most conservative members of the House. McCain’s best county-level performance in MN was in these suburbs, esp. McCloud, Sherburne, Wright and Sibley counties. Coleman beat Franken in every one of the counties immediately adjacent to the two Twin Cities counties, in some cases by nearly 2-to-1. i don’t know what the metric for a Republican area is, but it would seem like the Twin Cities suburbs fit the definition.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:18 am
Actually, I would consider this very promising for Pawlenty. He has not announced or campaigned, yet he has Obama below 50% in a blue State.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:21 am
You have a point Kristofer, he is not doing too bad considering MN is still more Blue than Red. Haha, did you see that you and I made the list for the most hated people here?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:31 am
OJ,
“(Kris), did you see that you and I made the list for the most hated people here?”
What?????
I’m going to have to redouble my efforts………
November 19th, 2009 at 10:31 am
4 – what list?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:41 am
I think it was in a few articles back.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:45 am
7 – don’t worry, that guy was an abused child.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:31 am
OJ, I didn’t say that you and Kris were the most hated people here.
I said “Yes I know that I am very inflammatory at times and I know that you and others don’t like me. Martha has many enemies. MWS can also be quite offensive, as can Alex Knepper. But, hands down, the most offensive and hateful people on Race, now that Flip and Knickers are gone, are Dotan, Kristofer “Race Pimp” Lorelli, and OJ.”
Hateful, OJ, not hated.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:31 am
And #8 is a typical comment from Kris that exemplifies his hateful, childish side.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Hmm. I grew up in the suburbs of the Twin Cities and I like Pawlenty (mostly due to electability). There’s another data point for you.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:46 am
While I do enjoy your funny sense of humor Kristofer, with respect, you probably should not have brought children into it.
Well DanL, I may not be Hated by you (which is fortunate,) but Kristofer and I did make Heath’s list. Which ironically was an honor.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:50 am
OJ, I forgot about Heath. I don’t really pay him much mind. I usually ignore his posts just like I do most of Pruce’s.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
ANYBODY BUT THAT TRAINWRECK SARAH PALIN.
I never really believed it during the 08 campaign (blinded by my partisan feelings), but this woman literally is an idiot like the left was saying. I have to agree with them on this one FACT!
Seriously, my g/f teaches 8th graders that are more intelligent than she. To boot, Palin comes off as very unappealing (personally and politically) to most indies and mods (those groups we will need to have any chance of defeating chairman obama in 12).
November 19th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
When when Palin actually does understand some issue, she presents it in a style that says “aren’t I cute?” while displaying her knowledge. That will not impress anyone.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
#13 — I’m with you on both.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if T/Paw doesn’t run or pulls out by the end of 2011.
There is no ground swell of support for him.
He will be the Fred Thompson of the race (remember him!).
November 19th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
DaveW…no way Palin is an idiot. An idiot has an IQ of 70 or below, and that puts them in the bottom 2.5%. There is no way she is that low.
Also, even though some of the 8th graders in your wife’s classroom may be smarter than Palin, they would be in the minority.