I’m glad that America’s Mayor is probably running for Senator in New York. And as since 2000, he’s dropped his support for Partial Birth Abortion, he’ll almost certainly get the Conservative Party line. It’s New York and given the records of all of New York’s Senators since Al D’Amato, people will take what they can get.
Now, the downside. The word is out that Giuliani is planning on using this for a 2012 stepping stone. Hopefully, Giuliani will dispel this notion. If not, it’s problematic. If Giulini wins in 2010, his term would be good until 2012. If instead of defending the Senate seat, Giuliani opts for a Presidential run, it really raises a question as to how much a Rudy win is worth.
As a Republican in the Senate, Rudy would probably be somewhere to the right of Olympia Snowe and to the left of John McCain, but could probably counted on most big fiscal issues, and foreign policy issues, and probably most social issues if he’s running for President. However, if he’s running for President, he’s going to miss a lot of Senate votes, maybe most of them. Thus, a Giuliani win could succeed in taking Kirsten Gillibrand’s vote away from the Democrats, but not adding a vote for the Republicans, making a Giuliani win worth about half a Senate seat for two years.
In addition, the situation that has allowed Giuliani to delay a decision will still exist. The Republican bench in New York is still absolute garbage. When Republicans have to look to old war horses like Pataki, Giuliani, and Lazio, you know they don’t have a strong future that can win statewide. So, Giuliani mounting up for a Presidential run gives the Democrats a good chance to recapture the seat in 2012 if Giuliani wins it. Of course, the same disorder that could allow a Giuliani win in 2010 won’t exist in 2012 as the unpopular Paterson would be gone along with Paterson’s ill-considered pick for U.S. Senate.
My greatest concern in this race in John Cornyn and the NRSC. Giuliani’s presence in the race means the NRSC could lay out some serious dough to capture this seat. However, with the cost of advertising in the New York Metro Market, the bills would be phenomenal. A million would be chump change in New York, but could sure help out in smaller states where the GOP also has legitimate pick-up opportunities like Delaware and Arkansas.
Bottom line?
If Rudy wants this to be a coming out party for his 2012 Presidential bid, then let Rudy’s presidential backers pay for his campaign. The NRSC should not spend one dime on this race unless either their coffers overflow or Rudy Giuliani’s pledges to stay the Senate and seek a full term representing the people of New York. To spend money to elect a Senator who’s going to be with you around 50-60% of the time and won’t run for re-election and may not even show up to vote that much would be an inexcusable mismanagement of resources when you’ve got a lot of Senate seats out there that you could win for six full years.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
You think Giuliani would only be with the GOP 50-60% of the time?
Are. You. Freaking. Delusional?
I would say 85% of the time.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:31 pm
I love your writing Adam, but you don’t know Giuliani very well if you think he would be to McCain’s Left in the Senate.
-Pro Bush Tax Cuts
-1,000,000% Pro Victory in Iraq and Afghanistan
-1,000,000% against government run health care
-Against Cap and Trade
-Against federal meddling in education. Pro School choice. Pro Home Schooling
-Hardcore supporter of Constructionist judges. No Gang of 14 BS…
-Would likely support Mexico City and be against any federal funding of abortion.
Add it up and that is far to the right of J-Mac.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:32 pm
Alex, the guy was nominated by the Liberal Party of New York Three times. Even Al D’Amato only 57% Conservative and Rudy’s to the left of D’Amato.
But for two years, if the NRSC ends up spending 7 digits on this race, and he doesn’t run for a whole term, it’s a waste of a lot of money. I’d rather it be spent in Pennsylvania or Arkansas.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
#2:
Most of that is in line with McCain, plus Rudy’s in New York. Unless Rudy’s running for President, I’d bet money that Giuliani finishes with a lower ACU percentage than McCain.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:35 pm
Him and McCain likely agree on Immigration, but that does not place Rudy to McCain’s left.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
Alex, the guy was nominated by the Liberal Party of New York Three times.
Well, oh boy!
You do know why, right?
I want you to explain it and write it out, so you don’t forget it; if I say it, you’ll gloss over it.
Even Al D’Amato only 57% Conservative and Rudy’s to the left of D’Amato.
He is? How? How?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
Please explain the ‘problematic downside’ of the Democrats recapturing a Senate seat in New York, which would come as a result of Rudy defeating Obama.
And I truly hope your suggestion that Giuliani would only be with the party around 50-60% of the time was to be taken literally, as his time would be spent partially on the campaign trail.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
Most of that is in line with McCain,
McCain: Close Gitmo
Rudy: Keep it open
McCain: Voted against Bush tax cuts
Rudy: I’ll balance my tax cuts with more tax cuts
McCain: Cap-and-trade might be okay
Rudy: Screw cap-and-trade
McCain: Gang of 14
Rudy: Great Federalist Society speech; go watch it
November 19th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
But not the important ones. Presidential candidates know better (in most cases) than to miss a tight vote on a major issue — if a bill that is unpopular with Republican voters in Iowa or New Hampshire passed by one vote because he was absent, it would be fatal to his campaign. If he misses a vote and the bill passes 57-42 instead of 57-43 — who cares?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
McCain is pro cap and trade, against the Bush Tax cuts, was the charter member of the Gang of 14, and has never given a crap about school choice or vouchers.
That’s four important issues where Rudy is to McCain’s Right right there.
And Rudy is more trustworthy on judges and likely will not support any federal funding of abortion.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
Being a senator means people don’t care if you run for president. If you’re a governor, you’re an executive and they need you there.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
I believe Rudy’s ACU score would be somewhere in the 80’s. This is doubly certain if he’s running for the GOP nomination in 2012.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
McCain: Stop waterboarding
Rudy: Get the information we need
McCain: educationzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Rudy: School choice would help parents
November 19th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
Sorry, Kavon, but I can see why Adam wouldn’t trust Rudy on abortion.
I mean — it’s really obvious to us that he’s backed down on that and that he would never piss off the Christian Right like that, but, well…
November 19th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Okay guys, only 10 Senators voted 85% Conservative in 2008. If you believe Giuliani would be in the top 25% in the Senate, his campaign was effective with only people on this board.
#7:
Word is that Giuliani might not run for re-election to focus on the White House, and if Giuliani loses, the Republicans would still lose the seat.
Giuliani will not be the nominee. You don’t come back from spending $60 million to get your butt kicked by Ron Paul to being President. Ain’t happening. And even if it were to happen, the NRSC would have spent money to win the sea tonly to boost the nomination chances of Rudy.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
If Rudy’s intentions are to run in 2012, his Senate record would be darn near indistinguishable from DeMint.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
Are you saying that you wouldn’t want Giuliani to be the nominee, even if he could defeat Obama?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
I agree. But Adam does have a valid point about whether the NRSC expending funds in this race would be worthwhile if Hizzoner only plans to stay for two-years.
The “people on this board” to whom you are referring have read, literally, tens of thousands of pages on Rudy’s record and understand that Republicans who governed as conservatively, or accomplished as much “conservative good” as Rudy Giuliani in the 20 Century can be counted on the fingers of one hand
November 20th, 2009 at 12:26 am
I’ve reviewed the record, too. There’s simply no reason to believe Giuliani would be to the right of Richard Shelby. I’m sorry. And if he were to vote like that, he wouldn’t be long for the Senate.
I’d be willing to bet anyone $20 that unless he runs for President, after 4 years in the Senate, his record will be closer to 60% than to 85%.
So, if Giuliani is elected and if you accept this bet, and if after the ACU ratings are released for 2014 in mid-2015, and if Giuliani did not make a vainglorious presidential bid, and if Giuliani’s ACU rating is less than 72.5%, I will pay you $20. If it is less than 72.5%, than you will pay me $20.
However, the terms of this bet are that you may not call, e-mail, or phone me about the money, however if we happen to pass on a street corner, and I have lost the bet, I will gladly fork over the money and will expect you to do the same should our fortunes be reversed.
Now, the main point is even if Giuliani did vote 85% Conservative to win the nomination, it’s still not worth money to help someone get in there who’s not going to serve and who is going to be a big money pit for the NRSC.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:29 am
ACU above 72.5? You are on Adam!
November 20th, 2009 at 2:13 am
Alright. And if he votes exactly 72.5% ACU Rating, it’ll be a draw…
November 20th, 2009 at 2:23 am
I wish people would stop claiming that people can run for something in 2010 only to run for President in 2012!1
We rightly condemned Obama and yet he actually had 24 more months!
Either he runs for the senate and stays there (my prediction) or doesn’t run and considers a run for President (but why would he run when he won a single delegate last time!).
November 20th, 2009 at 5:32 am
It won’t solve anything to get into a contest as to how Conservative or Liberal Mr. Giuliani is or is not, but he is rather Conservative for the Blue state of NY. So from that point of view it would great if he were to become Senator. Although he cannot win nationally (unless perhaps we experience more terrorism,) he certainly is no RINO. So yeah, go ahead Mr. Giuliani, win the seat. However, Adam Graham does have a good point about being concerned that the NRSC will just piss away money in NY when there are other states to worry about. I guess we will soon find out if NRSC has learned any money management skills.
November 20th, 2009 at 7:53 am
Rudy will be a strong fiscal conservative vote in the US Senate. He also will have zero problems raising money as he is a household name.
He is also up 14 points on Gillibrand in the latest Marist poll. Go Rudy!
November 20th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Rudy should do the right thing if he truly just wants to be president. Skip the senate, and RUN FOR PRESIDENT. NOW.