Folks, here we go. From the Des Moines Register:
HT to Aron Goldman for this article breaking things down a bit more.
Sarah Palin could expect a lot of support in Iowa’s Republican caucuses if she launched a campaign for the 2012 presidential nomination, according to The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll.
But the rising national figure, who is scheduled to stop in Iowa next month on her national book tour, would also have to contend with a lot of doubts about her — unlike her potential rivals, the poll found.
The first public poll to test Palin’s favorabilty in the leadoff nominating state found 55 percent of all Iowans hold an unfavorable opinion of Palin a little more than a year after the last election. Only 37 percent feel favorably about her.
And those feelings are intense: More than twice as many Iowans feel very unfavorable toward her as feel very favorable.
But more than two-thirds of Republicans like what they see, making her a credible candidate for the 2012 caucuses should she decide to run for president, strategists say.
“These numbers put her in a position where she can obviously look at Iowa,” said David Winston, a national Republican pollster. “But she has this big jump that she’s got to overcome. People like her personally on the Republican side, but there’s this policy substance question.”
Only 8 percent of Iowans are unsure about Palin just 15 months after the former Alaska governor burst on the national scene.
The 45-year-old self-styled “hockey mom” ignited the Republican National Convention as an establishment outsider, and quickly became a focal point of the media during the 2008 campaign’s final months. Iowa Republican activists raved when John McCain named her his running mate and later turned out in big, enthusiastic audiences as she campaigned solo for the ticket in Des Moines, Dubuque and Sioux City.
Iowans’ feelings about Palin track generally with the national mood. A Washington Post-ABC News national survey taken this month showed 52 percent of Americans had an unfavorable opinion of Palin, compared to 42 percent favorable.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:18 pm
Mitt’s huge slippage in Iowa doesn’t conform to the Rombot party line that Mitt has done everything right since dropping out.
With only 27% having an opinion of Pawlenty, he is +7.
With 72% having an opinion of Romney, he is only +8.
ouch.
Does he have enough money left after last time?
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
I can’t wait to see what Martha has to say about this………..
Hold your ears, Iowans. Know that not all Republicans think that about you guys!!!!
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Since the caucus is closed (unless they changed it), Romney trails Huckabee by 12 points among Republicans in favorability. It’ll be interesting once the full numbers are released.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:21 pm
As meaningless and long-lasting as cotton-candy.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:23 pm
I predict that Governor Palin will do much better than expected in caucus States. She can really rally the folks. Also, if I were a betting man I would not place any money on Pataki.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Palin can do well in the primaries; this proves it, but she just can’t win in the general election. How does someone with a 55% disapproval rating win a national election, especially since only 8% aren’t sure about her?
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Sarah Palin faces uphill challenge in Iowa in 2012, poll shows
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20091122/NEWS/91122002/Sarah-Palin-faces-uphill-challenge-in-Iowa-in-2012-poll-shows&theme=IOWAPOLL
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:27 pm
The wisdom of Prophet Pruce!!!
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:29 pm
Jon,
Gallup is supposed to be releasing a poll on her soon. We’ll find out whether it’ll confirm the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll or not.
On Palin Watch: Pre- and Post-”Rogue”
http://thequeue.gallup.com/2009/11/on-palin-watch-pre-and-post-rogue.html
This poll was conducted between the 8-11th.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:30 pm
As meaningless and long-lasting as cotton-candy.
And just as irresistible.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Jonathan, Reagan had very similar numbers in 1978. Don’t underestimate a talented political natural. Electability arguments are notoriously flawed. In fact I would argue that Dole and McCain were selected largely on electability arguments same goes for Mondale and Kerry on the Dem side.
One little anecdote: On the night Reagan clinched the nomination, Carter and his staff broke out champagne in celebration, believing that he would be an easy oponent and had no chance in a general.
First things first, Governor Palin first has to be concerned with securing the nomination then the general election battle begins and she’ll be ready.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:34 pm
#11:
Gallup has 63% of people saying they won’t vote for her, and 62% say she isn’t qualified. Reagan had at least 8 years as Governor of the largest state in the Union. Palin was Governor for 2.5 years of a state with a very small population and quite before her record could be judged by the citizens of Alaska (I have a similar criticism of Romney, but that’s another story).
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:35 pm
True AK but surely it’s not too early for some actual head to head to head Romney v Huck v Sarah Iowa polls
.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Mitt Romney as the updated and improved version of Steve Forbes is still not a natural fit for Iowa. He’s got a ceiling at 30% just like his predecessor.
If he hits that ceiling it means he’ll have done everything right. More likely he ends where he did last time at 25% or below.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Good analysis Doug.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:38 pm
Geez, I guess the 50% of moderates who give Huck high marks must be right wing religious nuts as well (Insert sarcastic emoticon here). Huck has 54% favorable/22 Unfav./and 24 not sure (54/22/24) compared to Palin: 37/55/8, Newt: 42/36/22 Mitt: 40/32/28 of all voters.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Edwards got almost the same percentage the second time around.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Huck and Mitt get around the same percentages in 2012.
I predict here and now that Palin won’t be in the top 3 in Iowa if the field includes most of Huck, Mitt, T/Paw, Perry, Daniels, Thune and Gingrich.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Was this Iowa poll taken after the last couple of weeks of ALL PALIN ALL OF THE TIME?
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:42 pm
#18, November 11th-18th.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:44 pm
#19, I see November 8-11th.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:45 pm
I don’t think this proves Sarah can do well at all. Remember, she always shows strong on favorables with republican voters, but much weaker when showing who would vote for her in the primary.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:46 pm
20, Opps, I got the one’s and eight’s mixed up. Sorry!
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:46 pm
These are meaningless numbers since Iowa is not a primary state.
Iowa is all about organization which is where Romney excels. Sure Huckabee will get his since he has a well groomed Evangelical base he uses as his organization. Don’t expect the same out of Palin as she doesn’t seem to be an organizer, nor has she started to put together an organization.
In the end, assuming all stays the same, expect Romney and Huckabee to come out 1 and 2 (order not sure of, will give the edge to Huckabee), and then Huckabee to get trounced in New Hampshire.
After New Hampshire, look for Romney to steadily pull ahead until super tuesday, where Romney will be #1 and Huckabee a distant 2nd, Palin and rest will have dropped out by then.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:52 pm
#23:
“In the end, assuming all stays the same”
That’s the problem, things won’t be the same. The closest comparison to Palin from 08 was Fred Thompson, who got in so late that he became a footnote. Palin will be no such thing. Based on her current reputation, she will draw a good number of evnagelicals into her camp, which will hurt Huckabee. Pawlenty will be running, and he’ll probably go after soft Romney voters and McCain voters in Iowa. This doesn’t even mention Gingrich (who probably won’t run), Thune, Daniels or any other candidate who may throw their hat in the ring. It will be a whole different ball game in 2012 than it was in 2008.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Iowa is all about organization which is where Romney excels.
Oh, God, it’s like it’s December 2007 all over again!
Matt C: “Romney’s gonna win with 40%! He has organization and Huck just doesn’t!”
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:59 pm
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:00 pm
If Huck is seen as a threat to Governor Palin, Rush, Beck and Levin will take him out and it won’t be pretty.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:02 pm
In Iowa, I expect Romney to lose again. It is between Palin and Huck in Iowa. Everywhere else Romney will move to the top.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
#27 Eh, Huckabee should probably be more worried about the CFG. The CFG’s record recently in terms of primaries is pretty outstanding.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:06 pm
CFG might dog Romney too. They’re not too keen on RomeyCare.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:09 pm
#28:
My bold prediction; one of the Big Three will come in 4th or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire and will be out of the race before Super Tuesday.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Aron,
They changed the title of the article. I plead not guilty.
Iowa Poll: State Republicans like what they see in Sarah Palin
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20091122/NEWS/91122002/Iowa-Poll-State-Republicans-like-what-they-see-in-Sarah-Palin&theme=IOWAPOLL
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:11 pm
#30, Eh, I don’t think the CFG’s hatred is more for Huckabee. They can stomach Romney. Romney can take comfort from the fact that Drudge doesn’t hate him. Huckabee won’t have that luxury.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Pruce,
“If Huck is seen as a threat to Governor Palin, Rush, Beck and Levin will take him out and it won’t be pretty.”
On the contrary, Rush, Beck, and Levin are partly responsible for why Huck does so well with moderates and independents.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:16 pm
They used to really try and dog “Romneycare” but the fact is Healthcare remains a hot topic for most people and could use reform. Unfortunately we don’t see any of the reforms necessary in Federal health care. The problem is that the Democrats will use any type of bill for their own Orwellian purposes. Mass really tried to address the healthcare issue from a business perspective (and by most accounts they did) but it isn’t about healthcare in the Fed plan. It is all about CONTROL of every man, woman and child in this country. It really should be a state issue. Anytime Congress gets involved it is usually about absolute control. The whole debate is useless and shows how the states have been stripped of their own ability to make choices for themseleves. Several states are on the verge of Bankruptcy because as a general rule, social programs are too expensive and solve too few problems that they are intended to solve.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:24 pm
I would like to see an increase in Healthcare savings accounts. I have used them for all kinds of planning including orthodontics and so forth and have got quite good at predicting health care events. Outside of a plan for unforseen emergency room visits (the valid kind) and catastrophic health care plans, I don’t see a need for massive government control and intervention.
As for Huck v. Palin that should be interesting since they have the same base. Romney has a little different conservative base and will not be affected by either Huck or Palin in my view. If you were a bible thumping God is great Christian and saw Mormons as a cult last year, you probably will again next year. That leaves a choice between Palin and Huck. While Huck really does have a kind heart for the down trodden in my opinion (and so does Jimmy Carter), I wouldn’t say the same for All Talk All the Time Palin who in my humble opinion sees it all about one person and what ever it takes for Rush and Hannity to press that image, then so be it. They will try and fashion Palin as the female born again Ronald Reagan although Reagan actually could spit out a paragraph beyond talking points and knew what he was talking about.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:29 pm
After exhaustive analysis, I have discerned what the final 2012 Iowa Caucus results will be- or at least to the nearest hundredth of a percent:
Huck 32.14%
Pawlenty 27.45%
Palin 12.46%
Romney 10.18%
Thune 9.92%
Johnson 4.61%
All others 3.24%
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:37 pm
It’s more important to consider what are the important beliefs, that’s why Romney never appealed to me, because he seemed willing
to jettison certain beliefs, like
support of Ronald Reagan, back in ‘94, yet that didn’t stop the Kennedy apparatus from sliming him with a non existent controversy. T
This is a strange coffee clatch of Republicans we have here, some of whom don’t seem to be that interested in national defense, or tax policy, or even the more obvious ethical mishaps in this
damnable health bill.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:43 pm
#37…MWS…..LOL…….You’ve still got those blinders on. You might be right about Huck here but are you saying that Palin can’t do better than 12.45% in Iowa? Are you saying she is dead on arrival?
And you’ve got Pawlenty way ahead of Romney and Palin?
If your top four in the list are all campaigning in Iowa, then I predict a close horserace among 3 or 4 candidates with either Huck or Mitt edging out a win.
Mitt at 10.18%……..you consumed too much sugar before bed again.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Palin and Huck are going to cannibalize the same pool of voters, assuming both of them run.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Jerald,
#37 was 64.98% parody.
But I do think Palin could well lose half or more of her remaining support in the primary if she doesn’t start showing a better command of issues. The actual race will change things dramatically, and where many of the candidates wind up will look nothing like where they are now.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Adam,
There was an interesting FPP a while back that looked at that issue and based on polling date made the case that there isn’t as much overlap between Huck and Palin voters as many people suppose. I don’t remember the details, but I recall that Palindrones where surprisingly secular.
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:53 pm
MWS needs to make a trip back to the shed and hang himself up on the wall of the other dull axes. “)
November 22nd, 2009 at 10:53 pm
You can say that again.
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:03 pm
#41….Yeah, I got the humor, but I thought Palin would be dead on arrival soon after the ‘08 general election and she’s still alive and well, even though her “presidential positives” are not doing so great.
Huck is doing better than I thought he would be as well.
Mitt’s about where I expected him to be at this point.
I’m not a betting man, but I expect Pawlenty to pick up steam….and if Mitt doesn’t run, T-Paw will get a whole lot of Romneyite support.
I may be on drugs, but I just don’t see Romney lossing many of the people who supported him before, the same goes for Huckabee, except he might lose some support to Sarah and Mitt some to T-Paw, so it could easily be a 4-way horse race up to the end even if Romney and Huckabee are always a little ahead of the pack.
But Romney in the 10% range? Like I said, “too much sugar before bed” (unless of course he’s not running and still gets 10%
).
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:12 pm
iowa wont mean as much next time. it wont be a surprise next time if huck wins iowa, in fact he can only fall short of expectations. romney will win NH going away next time.
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:27 pm
Some of y’all are dumb as all hell for not realizing MWS was being sarcastic.
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:30 pm
They Chose Celebrity
By ROSS DOUTHAT
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/23/opinion/23douthat.html?pagewanted=print
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:33 pm
Palin dines, prays with Rev. Billy Graham in NC
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hHwXbl1j3fwcunYheNyish7seUAgD9C50BIG0
Those who follow Sarah Palin are sowing the seeds of their own destruction
The former Alaska governor represents thwarted aspirations and brooding resentment. But she backs policies which would increase them.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/nov/23/palin-sowing-seeds-destruction-america
Beware the powerful fantasy world of Sarah Palin, Warrior Princess
The US vice-presidential candidate’s memoir mocks the truth, but she remains a possible future American leader
by Andrew Sullivan
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article6926728.ece
Palin prediction: She won’t run
http://blog.nj.com/njv_kathleen_obrien/2009/11/my_palin_prediction_she_wont_r.html
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:52 pm
It’s interesting that these groups decide to take a poll before Paln’s book tour. I would bet her numbers are even better now.
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:56 pm
#47…..MWS was only being half sarcastic
and thanks for the compliment Alex…
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:58 pm
Obama’s path to victory is JOBS JOBS JOBS
Palin’s path to victory is articulate POLICY POLICY POLICY
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:00 am
#51:
They probably decided to do a pre-book tour poll and will do a post-book tour poll once it’s done.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:06 am
Aron, I don’t even really get angry anymore, the British version of Bob Herbert, Andrew Sullivan, (the man just screams selfparody)
some distaff pundit from the Jersey
shores, I mean the only reason to
bring them up, is to laugh in their
faces.
Martha, on the other hand, what did Sarah ever to you, maybe you would like it if some defamed you, your family, and everyone around
gave voice to every conceivable malcontent and ne’re do well, for the better part of a year.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:11 am
I am getting kind of ticked off at the gov from ak. She has such a big megaphone and yet she doesn’t seem to want to use it other than to talk about herself or her family.
Someone needs to slap Palin in face and tell her that she needs to start hiring policy advisers. Stop the celebrity nonsense already!
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:23 am
Hey darling, It’s not about elitism or being Harvard educated.. You can keep the folksiness gig going as long as you comprehend the complex issues of our time. Stop being a lazy little girl and do your homework. The world doesn’t need a folksy oprah so lock yourself in a room and don’t come out until you can explain to us why unemployment is so high while giving us solutions to this problem that don’t include cutting taxes.
PS: Your staff stinks.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:30 am
Conservatives to the rescue
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/22/AR2009112201236_pf.html
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:36 am
Yes let us raise taxes for four years, on everything, let us make development of our own resources
prohibitive. If you are actually going a stimulus, put it to projects that actually put people
to work, building bridges, power
plants, roads, but that many went
to non existent congressional districts, much like the prototype operation with the CAC twenty years
ago. If you are going over a cliff, the first thing you do is
hit the brakes not the accelerator
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:46 am
I think voters are going to vote for someone who can who can reverse the course Obama has set us on. When the primary starts and the race gets going, people are going to look to nominate a candidate who has solutions and original ideas. I believe Romney is that candidate, Romney and Pawlenty are the only serious ones out there so far, but other candidates unknown right now will come along.
Palin and Huckabee have made themselves into an industry..They have chosen to be celebrities instead of potential presidents and that image may be hard for them to shake. Reagan did it, but he was a celebrity before becoming a politician….Palin and Huckabee were politicians before turning celebrity.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:01 am
Go Mike!
The numbers don’t lie!
Thank you, Des Moines Register again…
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:02 am
59. LOL
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:04 am
Intrade must be responding to the title of the front page article on the Des Moines Register (is the DMR really going to lead with polls for two days?).
Thune and Pawlenty seem to be substitutes for one another.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:09 am
http://politicsmagazine.com/magazine-issues/october-2009/its-really-about-the-dogs/
It’s Really About the Dogs
By Mike Huckabee
There are four basic fundamentals to a candidacy: message, motivation of volunteers, media and money. Without a message, there’s no reason for a campaign unless the candidate simply has an ego bigger than the federal de?cit or a pile of money he’d like to burn. ; )
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:12 am
63. cont…
We knew that what mattered was getting to the people as directly as possible and giving them a reason to go and vote for me. To a candidate with enough money to buy the top 500 feet of every broadcast tower in the nation, GOTV stands for “Go On TV,” but for those of us who have to run an insurgent, grassroots, volunteer fed and led organization, it still means GET OUT THE VOTE.
There’s a great story about an executive selected to be CEO of a dog food company. He hired the best nutritionists, graphics designers, marketers and sales force imaginable. The product was developed, packaged and marketed. But sales were terrible. He assembled his entire team and tried to motivate them. He shouted, “Who has the best nutritional formulation in the dog food industry?”
“We do, sir!” screamed back his team.
“And who has the most thoroughly researched container design and marketing campaign in the industry?” he asked.
“We do, sir!” came back the reply.
“Then why are our sales so horrible?” he then inquired.
There’s a long silence. Finally a voice in the rear of the room burst out, “Because the dogs won’t eat the darn stuff, sir!”
All the money, marketing and machinery in the world won’t work if the dogs won’t eat it. In the end, GOTV is about getting voters to go vote because they believe the message and believe in the messenger.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:24 am
By the way, and although it’s too early, to state the obvious this is another awful poll for Palin.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:32 am
IOWAS’ Favorables:
Mike … 54%
Sarah …. 37%
Newt …… 42%
Mitt ……. 40%
Tim ……… 17%
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:36 am
A poll of adults, with no break down of the party affiliations in the sample, let’s try again shall we.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:38 am
Iowans are ready for honest truthful Government in the State House AND the White House. I expect that Palin’s numbers WILL improve, Mitt -not so much….
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:42 am
Margin of error: +/- 4.5 points
Source: Iowa Poll of 800 Adults
by the Des Moines Register
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:44 am
oops…make that plus or minus 4.2 percentage points ; )
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:13 am
Along with 70% approval among Republicans, 54% of Iowans statewide view Huckabee favorably.
Those are GREAT numbers. Also…
Trailing Huckabee (70%!!!) and Palin (68%!!) the poll among Republicans are Newt Gingrich (66%!) and Mitt Romney (58%).
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:28 am
IT’S CLEAR FROM THAT GUEST ARTICLE THAT HUCK STILL HASN’T GOTTEN OVER BEING SPANKED BY MITT IN 2008.
Time to move on Mike your obesssion is sad and pathetic!
ps if you want to oppose Mitt run again. Don’t hide behind supporting another candidate and throwing bombs from your tv show. You are either in or out. Man up.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:51 am
Mike might throw all his support to Sarah. Or reverse.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:06 am
If he’s a weak man he win.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:12 am
Adam Brickley,
Maybe you can just mention to Sarah that she should ditch the lip liner. It almost makes her look like a clown. Honestly, she’s very attractive, but the lip liner’s got to go.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:37 am
“He will”.
No won’t “win”!
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:53 am
MWS,
Ouch? You are, of course, biting your nails again. Let’s see how this can play out.
Romney runs against Huckabee and Palin who split the Evangelical vote, although Mitt takes a good number. Huckabee is supposed to win handily, so Mitt runs an issues only, solutions oriented primary campaign and totally ignores Huckabee. He campaigns on the premise that Iowa voters are important voters who need to know his position on issues and his ideas for solving problems. He can do this. Huckabee and Palin can do it far less effectively. He wins even if he loses. If he wins , he puts Huckabee out of the race. If he loses on this kind of a positive campaign, totally ignoring the expected run of personal / religious criticism, he wins as well.
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:58 am
The poll was conducted between Nov. 8-11, BEFORE THE RELEASE OF GOING ROGUE, in the interest of full disclosure.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:15 am
“The poll was conducted between Nov. 8-11, BEFORE THE RELEASE OF GOING ROGUE, in the interest of full disclosure.
” BINGO. BTW, I am only on Chapter 3, but already my pride in being a Palinite is confirmed. Yes the book talks a lot about Mrs. Palin and her family; I almost shed a tear when it I read about the miscarriage of Tad Palin. However, it does not take rocket science to see how Mrs. Palin promotes all aspects of Conservatism. So far in her book, she has promoted Social Conservatism, Patriotism, defending America and fiscal responsibilty (among other things shwe cut the budget of the governor’s mansion (which was already a modest house.) The Palin family is not afraid to promote hard work, justice and fairness and other values that Americans and Alaskans hold dear. She has a history of fighting for the people and taking on the old boys club and political gangsters. She is also not afraid to take on malcontents like McLeod. Her two rival camps like to jump up and down and tell us that Mrs. Palin was mayor of only a small town. However, if they would read the book, they would know that other mayor in Alaska looked up to her for starters.
Yes, she may not do well in Iowa and she might not even run for President. However, it is people like Mrs. Palin that we need in our party to keep it going strong. She is a sharper cookie than many give her credit for.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:42 am
60 – Palin is only a celebrity because you, and others, choose to call her that, to pigeon-hole her and to diminish her. Palin is a former Governor, a best selling Author and a Political Activist.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:44 am
This poll explain why the GOP should cut Dumb-IOWA of the process of electing the next nominee. Iowa is a joke.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:46 am
craigs,
I peel my nails.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:46 am
Sarah Palin makes the staement of ” Reagan in high heels ” ring true. I was pleasantly surprised about the marked
contrast between Palin’s interviews these past 2 weeks with her Katie Couric’s interview, when she held her
own substantative take on issues that matter to solve this country’s problems. In 2008, she was restricted by so-ca
called handlers and subjected her to interviewers whose only aim is to do “gotcha’. The leftists cannot keep their
eyes off her and fesr her, because she perhaps alone can oust Obama in the end, not Huck nor Mitt. See how much she
has accomplished in just a few weeks ? 2012 seems an eternity!
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:48 am
#81 is a great illustration of Rule #4 in the Rombot handbook:
When Romney fails, blame the voters.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:50 am
Hey, when voters are so dumb as iowans the should be ban of voting in any race.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:50 am
Hey MWS, why aren’t you doing anything to promote Pawlenty?
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:52 am
Edit
Hey, when voters are so dumb as iowans are they should be ban of voting in any race.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:10 am
Funny things about races, they usually have adversity and debates, and they do have a tendency to change things.
Palin has yet to debate as a nominee.
Huckabee has not debated as leading contender.
Newt will not even be running.
Will all of these voters come up in a winters night to caucus.
What happens when a voter must make a choice between on of the top candidates. (after all,
a caucus going might see all the candidates as favorable, but later much choose only 1.
Will the candidate have the organization to get their people to the caucus site.
Lots of questions, and we will not get the answer for some time.
Still if you look at only the mostly favorable, which is probaly a good indication, it makes it a very close race.
Huckabee 39%
Romney 32%
Newt 32%
Palin 25%
=========
or 128%
Even if Romney comes in a close 2nd in Iowa and wins New Hampshire going away, he will have the momentum going into Michigan.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:10 am
I’d be somewhat careful about using fav’s. to try and guess the outcome here….someone (a Romney or Gingrich supporter) might still have a favorable opinion of another candidate (Huckabee) but vote for someone else.
All this shows is that Huck is liked. Hmm….Talkshow host who can ignore [for now] every part of his record that he doesn’t like. I WONDER why he would be so popular.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:14 am
87. Another swing! Another miss!
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:21 am
I’m an an Iowan and would vote for Huck. I would never vote for Palin; however, I would give her a favorable opinion in this poll if I was called. I think that is why Huck and Palin have almost the same favorables. The question is: Which would would they VOTE for. I know many people who admire Sarah as a convservative women and advocate; however, they don’t see her as presidential material. The DM-Register should have asked which one would you have voted for.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:23 am
88 Thunder, I believe that Michigan will be much later in the next primary season and will not be much help to Romney.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:27 am
Actually, you are correct, was just reading about the ohio plan.
http://shotsonthehouse.com/?p=1963
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:34 am
Thunder, that is really interesting. It could give Romney a really big lead in delegates early on. On that plan let’s say that Huck won Iowa, SC, Nebraska and the Dokatas. It looks like Romney cleans house with NH, ID, MT, ME, VT, RI, DE, DC, Hawaii, and maybe WV. Palin gets AK if she runs, Romney gets it if she doesn’t.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:43 am
Oh, I missed NV and NM. Romney takes those too.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:44 am
Doh, and WY.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:18 am
West Virginia is Huckabee country.
Along with Florida this time, my friend. Reality hurts sometimes.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:21 am
“West Virginia is Huckabee country.
Along with Florida this time, my friend. Reality hurts sometimes.” As of today, that is probably the case, but the cookie has not finished crumbling.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:22 am
Dan,
“Hey MWS, why aren’t you doing anything to promote Pawlenty?”
I am but a humble servent of the Muse. I dare not try to command her.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 am
If you guys are going to be linking to things Matt writes, the least you could do is have Kavon bring him back onto the threads.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 am
If you guys are going to be linking to things Matt writes, the least you could do is have Kavon bring him back onto the threads.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:07 am
“If you guys are going to be linking to things Matt writes, the least you could do is have Kavon bring him back onto the threads.”
A merciful god would never allow it.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:10 am
This is a must read. Our debt has become so massive, that a couple points rise in the government’s cost of borrowing will eclipse the cost of ObamaCare. When you consider that short term Treasuries are at historically (and artificially) low yields, this is scary:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/23/business/23rates.html
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:15 am
“A merciful god would never allow it.”
I didn’t think so. I was simply commenting on the odd state of posting someone’s work on this site when they would not be permitted to post it themselves.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Read the entire article, and come to whatever conclusion with which you are comfortable. Huckabee has the highest favorables and the lowest negatives. Among moderates, he is more than twice as favorable than Palin. Among conservatives, he has 70% to Palin’s 60%. Among all Iowans, he is 54-22 favorable, compared to Palin’s negative favorability of -18. In other words, Huckabee is the only potential republican candidate that has a shot to take back Iowa in the general election — certainly Palin would destroy the republicans.
And finally, he won the caucus last year by nine points — and remains the favorite.
And this poll is still just discussing favorability, not who they would actually vote for. Furthermore, in the 2008 Iowa Caucus, when they liked Mike, they voted for him.
Now if you honestly believe a book tour and interviews are going to change all that — and strike against Mike Huckabee who is viewed weekly in the aggregate by 3.5 million people — keep up the optimism.
As for me, I take heart in reality. Mike Huckabee will win Iowa and go on to win S.C. Anyone who thinks southerners are going against a good old boy like Mike for Palin probably agreed that African Americans were going to vote for Hillary over Obama.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
And, as a postscript to my immediately last post, I will venture to say what many will disagree with:
If all three (Mitt, Mike and Palin) jump in, the Iowa caucus final results will reflect: Mike, Mitt and Palin in first, second and third place, respectively. I honestly believe Mitt will take second — and go on respectfully to New Hampshire. That is why he will compete in Iowa — to claim his second place. When Mike takes the majority of evangelicals (and he will), then Palin’s base dwindles down — but Romney’s base from 2008 remains fairly secure, in my opinion.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
“When Mike takes the majority of evangelicals (and he will), then Palin’s base dwindles down” That is at best only partly true. Mrs. Palin’s base is demographically diverse and evangelicals are only one part of her base. Furthermore, while I do not doubt that Mr. Huckabee will win the South, a strong Palin candidate can win delegates in the south, I do not care that she is not a ‘good old boy.’ After all, she know very well how to take on the old boys clubs. Furthmore, while the South has many delegates, other parts of the country have delegates too and Mrs. Palin can certainly get her fair share against Mr. Huckabee. Write Mrs. Palin off at your own risk.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Mitt is the only one out there looking presidential. His book, due out in the spring, is not a victim book, but one of actual policy. He’s on the networks (there are other, other than Fox) talking, answering questions, giving solid answers. You may not like it, but he’s shining brighter each day, and President Romney will be one of the great’s in history.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:48 pm
97. I guess it was huck country in 08 too, when Mitt Romney actually won VA and came very close in Fla. Dreamers are fun, but reality is where the votes are.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Yeah, Mr. Romney actually won VA, haha:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=51&f=0&off=0&elect=2
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Yes, he did Ohio. And then the back door deal came to play. Yes, when you have to cheat to win, it it really a win? I teach my chilren to be honest in all things. Mitt won it. Then the back door deal. But hay, you’ve got your rosey glasses, and they’ll serve you well into the first Mitt Romney Presidential term!
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
I will remind you that Virginia and West Virginia are two different states:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=54&f=0&off=0&elect=2
Anyway, instead of crying about cheating, maybe you should get 50% of the vote on the first ballot or better still, submit yourself to a primary.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Chris, I know you’re confusing the two states. But I like your enthusiasm, buddy -except for the smearing of Huck part.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Darn! OJ beat me to it. ; )
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:16 pm
“Darn! OJ beat me to it. ; )” haha, I may be half a sleep, but I am also half awake.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:30 pm
“Mitt won it.”
Quite obviously untrue. The rules required 50% to win, which he didn’t get.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Haha, you confuse the poor people with facts Bob Hovic.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Ohio Joe: I agree that Palin will take a share of the evangelicals — and “fair” is left to individual interpretation. But respected polists, including Rasmussen, clearly indicate that Huckabee is taking evangelicals by a “huge ammount.” That was actually Rasmussen’s direct quote. I do not feel any risk at all in writing off Palin in Iowa. I mean that not with disrespect, but with analytical honesty. We can differ — and I am sure we do — but I sincerely feel no “risk” at all.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Regarding the Ohio plan posted in #93
Wouldn’t it be better to leave the early primaries for ONLY states that have gone red at least once in the last few general elections? I don’t understand why ANY blue states should have a major say in who we choose as our GOP nominee??? Why do they get to go early…let blue states be the tie breakers.
I would like to state for public record that I am also against the all or nothing delegate system in some states. IMO they should be proportional so that we get a true count of who is really liked best by the majority of voters. What do others think?
November 24th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
As an update, just to advise, I e-mailed Tom Beaumont from the DesMoines Register and got answers to some of my questions on the recent Iowa Poll.
Tom clarified that, in addition to asking people by what political party they identified themselves, they also asked them — separate from party ID – how they identified themselves ideologically: conservative, moderate or liberal.
For “conservatives” — it was Huckabee 68 – Palin 60. So there was an eight point difference ideologically–
For “republicans” — Huckabee 70/Palin 68
And on moderates he leads her two to one.
November 25th, 2009 at 5:56 am
Falz on a rewrite:
“Hey, when voters are so dumb as iowans are they should be ban of voting in any race.”
Hey, Falz. I normally don’t mention grammar, but your sentence makes no sense even after you fixed it. But when you call us folks from Iowa dumb, I have to wonder where you are from, my friend.
One reason Iowa makes a good caucus state is that it is Midwestern enough to have conservative and moderate Republicans, large enough to have city interests, rural enough to have farm interests, educated enough to ask tough questions, and small enough to allow/force candidates to meet people one on one. They got to know Mitt and Mike and picked the one they genuinely thought was best.
November 25th, 2009 at 6:03 am
Thunder said: “Romney….will have the momentum going into Michigan.”
But he won’t be able to use his promise of bailout money as he did in 2008. The American people will be paying much closer attention, as will the other candidates.