As widely reported, after stubbornly hanging above the magic 50% mark for weeks, Pres. Obama’s Gallup approval finally broke the threshold yesterday. Today, the number has declined even more, to 48%.
However, as the President’s numbers with Rasmussen, Pollster.com and RealClearPolitics have generally moved sideways in the past couple weeks, he probably doesn’t have much more room to drop.
With that in mind, I wanted to take an informal survey among R4′12 readers. How long do you think it will take for Obama’s Gallup approval to drop into the low-40s – defined here as 43% or below? Nate Silver has compellingly argued that a President’s “breakeven number” for re-election lies at 44% (with respect to their Gallup approval). And where does everyone think Obama’s numbers will sit at the time of the 2010 midterm elections? I look forward to hearing your thoughts, so have at it!
November 22nd, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Dear Crystal Ball, when will Pres. Obama’s approval drop to 43%?
Crystal Ball says: “Assuming that ObamaCare passes, he will fall under 43% in October 2010, because by then Americans will be seeing extra taxes removed from their paychecks.”
November 22nd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Agree with “Another Bob” – ObamaCare will drop his numbers, and it may not take until October 2010.
November 22nd, 2009 at 3:42 pm
ObamaCare if passed, won’t actually launch until 2012? Is that right? If so, ObamaCare will not effect his numbers as much until 2012.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:05 pm
In 2012 BO ought be around 41% if we’re still losing jobs and ~50% if we’re having mild job growth.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Micah, I think that taxes will start being collected in 2010,but benefits would not begin until later. This way Obama can say that Socialized Medicine is actually good for reducing the debt.
If this has changed in a more recent version of the bill, then by all means I will stand corrected.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Obama will be in the low to mid 40s in fall of ‘10.
Barring a miraculous turnaround in the economy, (which I don’t see happening) he’ll be in the mid to upper 30s in fall of ‘12.
November 22nd, 2009 at 5:14 pm
He will be in the low 40s during the next year and he will start to recover before the midterms. He will be re-elected.
November 22nd, 2009 at 5:55 pm
This country can not have 60% racist teabaggers can it?
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:21 pm
12 months is a long time in politics.
Barring any ’special’ world events, passing of Health Care Reform, President Obama’s polls should be well above 60%.
Reason, 1) political campaigns will be in full swings, 2)employment numbers will show a recovery in economy. 3)More people will be willing to give President time to implement his policies, 4) new formed ‘friendships’ between US and other nations (Asian, European etc. etc.)we signal a move to prosperity yet again. 5)Immigrants will made to register making US more secure 6)Immigrants will pay a fine to get legalized, bring fresh cash to the treasury.
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:37 pm
By the start of the 2010 election campaign, Obama’s approval numbers will be around 40%. They would be lower than that, except that 40% is the Democrat base. They CAN’T go lower than that.
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:57 pm
This is really unprecedented. Obama has the lowest approval ratings of any sitting President (at this point in his term). I recall G.W. Bush being in the 90’s at this point in his term and his Father being in the 70s or 80s. I don’t think Reagan ever dipped below 60. It is astonishing how quickly Obama’s numbers have plumeted into Carter territory.
November 22nd, 2009 at 7:48 pm
7.
He’s got the biggest mouthpiece and largest platform to do so. If he isn’t reelected, it will confirm just how weak he truly is.
I’m guessing that the O-Mighty One might still learn from the mistakes he keeps making. But I’d also guess that his reelection chances will be lower if the GOP fails to win a majority in at least one house of Congress.
I expect the recession to start heading south sometime soon. His popularity should hit its nadir a few months after that. I’d guess the second recessionary dip will hit in the spring, and if that’s right, he’ll be at 40 or below by, say, August 2010.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:10 am
#11…
GW Bush was in the 90s cause of his response to 9/11 (ppl always rally around the president in such a huge crisus like that too). He was skating close to where Obama is now in early Sept. 2001.
Reagan dipped to like 40% in 1982. Not as quickly as Obama dipped though.
I say he’ll be in low 40s in the early summer (like June) of 2010. By November, he’ll be at like 40% IMO, barring a huge economic recovery and drop in unemployment.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:01 am
Probably bottom out @ about 40%. It would be lower but he has the blind support of the black community. Sad but true. All the problems he promised to solve have only gotten worse…
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:59 am
He’ll go under 43% in late February, early March next year as people start doing their taxes and some see much smaller refunds than they expected while others will owe for the first time, ever.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:54 am
Obama can drop to mid 30s. Bush hit the mid 20s. Considering blacks make up 12% of population, I’ll make a prediction that he will have 20% disapproval from that group too by the time we get to 2012. Even a majority of Hispanics will disapprove of Obama.