I’m only halfway through Sarah Palin’s tome so I’m not going to write any sort of review right now- anyway, Alex has that covered. Still, internal disputes aside, Sarah Palin is the most interesting thing happening this week (we always knew the health care bill would clear this hurdle). So I figure this is as good a time as any to lay out some general thoughts/worries about Sarah Palin. Here’s the dilemma or, one of them anyway: Sarah Palin’s existence, as a potential Presidential candidate, radically diminishes the possibility that any other Republican can lay claim to grassroots conservatives. More than that, it radically dimishes the chances that grassroots conservatives will even be satisfied with anyone besides Palin.
2008 was an interesting year in some ways. We had an incredibly flawed batch of candidates, especially from the perspective of the “true conservative”, but ironically, this gave “true conservatives” more time to resign themselves to a less than ideal nominee. If you’re forced to spend 2 years deciding between RudyMcRomAbee. you’re going to adjust your perspective about the possibility of the perfect. And there’s substantial evidence that, after the Palin pick, most of the grassroots came aboard. Despite the fact that John McCain was John McCain. Despite the fact that conservatives were reeling from 8 years of Bush. Despite the fact that the Democratic nominee, while politically radical, was personally charming and not, traditionally, the sort of nominee you can get the disgruntled opposition to vote against.
All they needed was a sop. A relatively meaningful sop, true, but considering McCain and Palin spent the following two months railing against Wall Street, it shouldn’t have made up for all the heresies. But, it did. Would that have worked as well if McCain won the nomination after fending off, I don’t know, a non-Maccaced George Allen in the primary? Would conservatives, who’d spent two years preparing themselves for the emergence of a “pure conservatism”, have welcomed a still Maverick McCain because… he’d plucked an Alaskan Governor out of obscurity? I have a good deal of respect for Sarah Palin’s window into the conservative id, but I don’t think so.
The Sarah Palin problem is simple: as long as she exists, and her supporters can hold out hope for a glorious triumph of an earthy populistic boot stomping punch-a-Democrat-in-the-head conservatism, no one else will measure up. Tim Pawlenty’s terrific fiscal record and his sterling cultural conservatism will count for nothing. Mitt Romney’s common sense conservatism- his competence and intelligence- will be third rate qualities. Mike Huckabee’s folksy social conservatism won’t be hard hitting enough.
Alex seems to think that Rudy would have an easier time in 2012, because “it’s all about fiscal issues”- I think the exact opposite is true. It’s not about issues at all where Palin’s concerned- it’s about tone, about the ability to throw off 1.21 gigawatz of cultural spark and set fire to entire institutions. Democratic elites? Skewer them or perish. Republican elites? Skewer them or perish. Big City RINOS? Skewer them…or perish. Rudy may be better at skewering, in general, than someone like Romney, but he doesn’t have the political positions or cultural background to be credible- he’s a “big city RINO” himself.
Some of this appeals to people like me. There’s a sense in which I agree with the grassroots about the inveterate hopelessness of the folks who control the Republican Party and who, increasingly it seems, try to mold it for their own gain. There’s a sense in which burning down is more appealing than building up. You don’t have to go far back in the archives to find me tearing down the Republican establishment. But, I’m more than a little leery about betting on a movement that believes this is the only way. Because no one else can live up to that measure.
The road to the conservative id is lined with perils and obstacles and it may well be that you need 6 inch stillettos to make it through. Better we kept the gate locked and the party’s grassroots learned to love a more broad-based conservatism; one that can engage Democratic ideals, not Democratic individuals; one that can dodge as well as punch; one that can govern without becoming the gummit.
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:39 am
I still don’t think her or Huckabee will end up running. Palin post-book tour will be doing what? Nothing. Facebook posts do not make a president. Huckabee is unlikely to give up his TV show and new career for another long shot presidential bid. If I had to guess, they will both opt against a run, but both will endorse and try to be kingmaker. Romney obviously is already running, so expect Huckabee and Palin to try and endorse the anti-Romney candidate. Huckabee will likely rally to one Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, or Mitch Daniels. Palin will likely back Gov. Rick Perry, and he will pick up the Tea Party mantle and the Palin grassroots, combining them with his large Texas donor base. Gary Johnson will be packed by Ron Paul and the Libertarian crowd. Gingrich and Giuliani are also likely to give 2012 a seriously look, but both are well past their primes and would stand little chance, however both could be top VP choices. In the end, I imagine it will come down to Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels, Thune, and Perry, with one of the trio of Thune-Daniels-Pawlenty emerging as a conservative establishment alternative to Romney. Which ever one wins Huckabee’s endorsement will likely take Iowa and move on to face off with Romney in NH and Perry in SC.
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:44 am
I loved the Palin pick. It was the best thing about the ‘08 ticket. But Matthew (as usual) is dead on: she’s sucking ALL the oxygen out of the room.
My real fear is that it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Her tone will get more, not less strident, as we get closer to the election. She’ll be more, not less polarizing. She’ll have an outside but realistic shot at the GOP nomination. But in the process, she’s setting up the GOP for internal division in ‘12, just when it looks like we’ll have vulnerable incumbent on the ropes (although lots could still change between now and then).
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:47 am
Nice piece. The thing is, she will never fare well in head-to-head polling against Obama, and the GOP primary electorate never selects such a candidate.
In a sense, the theme behind your piece gives other candidates the freedom to just be them, and do their best to win the vs. Obama polling… which will win them the nomination. Which may actually be a better opening for Rudy than I had imagined… but which is far more likely to make Huckabee the nominee. (Gag)
November 22nd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
#1:
Have you seen the Palin polls this past week (Rasmussen F/UF 51/43; ABC/Wash Post poll where 1/2 of indies might be prepared to cast a vote for Palin now; the PPP poll which shows that shows Palin is leading Obama among the 65+ by 40 points (33/61) vs (52/40)and the Fox news poll that shows Palin’s indie F/UF at 49/38.)
And the book tour is barely out of the gate. These are not the numbers of someone who is not going to enter the fray.
November 22nd, 2009 at 12:35 pm
BTW, are we gonna pull Sanford off the sidebar? It’s just embarrasing at this point. And he was my first choice back in January.
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:03 pm
I understand the point being made in this post, but I really don’t think Palin is running. She is very smart to allow the idea of her running to endure because it gives her more clout with the media and with the grassroots. I’m sure she sold a ton more books because she might run, and her PAC probably gets more donations because she might run. I do think that she might have the power to basically pick the nominee however. It would be very hard for her to endorse someone and then see that person lose.
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:17 pm
#1
Palin is still young and is making loads of money on the speaking circuit. I don’t think she’ll run either. Huckabee would have to give up his lucrative Fox contract on a gamble. If he was to run and not get the nomination, I don’t believe Fox would take him back. Huckabee would most definitely try to throw the wammy on Romney by backing, ANYBODY ELSE. I don’t believe Palin would. If Palin is interested in a run in the future (as a Republican), she will need the Party establishment to back her. If it’s Romney’s turn, maybe she’ll figure that her turn will come and back the favorite.
I think if Romney is the nominee, I would like a Romney/DeMint ticket. Demint would give him the Southern Boost that he needs as well as satisfying the Far Right doubters and Tea baggers. He would be 61 in 2012 to Romney’s 65. People might think age would be an issue. After 4 years of Obama, maybe not!
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Huckabee played it smart by keeping in touch with the public with his weekly one hour show on FOX. I have followed him all year and I will vote for him for President should he decide to run. I like Sarah Palin. I would like to see her run for a congressional seat to get her political feet very wet in the wetlands and moors of Washington D.C. If she can succeed and stay true to herself in Washington D.C. after she finds out about the cronyism and corruption that seems to go hand in hand with being in congress, then she will have my vote for President in the future.
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:32 pm
I can’t believe some don’t think Palin is running. It’s just completely obvious if you listen to what she says, if you know her history, if you read the book, and put all these pieces together. She’s done everything except say it right out loud.
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:43 pm
#9,
You could be right. She is only 45, A lot of money can be made in the next 4-8 years. I don’t think she is the type to run unless she is absolutely positive of a win. She has already lost one election with McCain. Why rush?
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Uh oh, is Maureen Dowd becoming a Palinbot? Check out the comparison between Obama and Palin that MoDo scores in favor of Palin, hahaha.
Visceral Has Its Value
By Maureen Dowd
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/opinion/22dowd.html
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Looks to me like we’ve got these unannounced likely candidates now, in order of declining media efficacy:
Palin
Romney
Pawlenty
Johnson
Palin couldn’t hiccough without the media running stories on it. Romney has received some coverage on occasion, but only after shouting “Look at me!” ’til he’s hoarse.
To get any kind of attention, Pawlenty probably needs to go out in public and moon Keith Olberman or so.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Martha, I believe you are spot on. sarah has had high office in mind for years, and I see her as an excitable little girl…if she thinks she’s got even half a chance at winning, she’ll likely go for it. Sarah’s Governor resignation speech was bizarre, both in what she said, and how she said it. She was breathing heavily…you could actually hear her loud breaths. I think sarah’s very excitable and hyper, and thus not likely to let common sense get in the way when she wants something.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Dude, chics are like that. Better scene than herd, I alway say.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:14 pm
McCain is being chased by publishers, according to The Gawker, offering him EIGHT MILLION DOLLARS to write a book about his side of the campaign story. It is too bad he likely won’t do it, allowing $$$arah to get away with trashing Steve Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace’s reputations. Mary Matalin, a stanch supporter of all Repubs, wrote recently that she knows Steve Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace, adores them, and says they are admired and respected by their peers:
“Though the two primary Palin antagonists, McCain campaign senior strategists Steve Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace, have said little about the Molotov cocktails thrown at them in “Going Rogue” (other than a true Schmidt, aka, “The Bullet,” retort, “Why are the bald guys always the villains?”), both have made it clear the accounts of their actions in “Going Rogue” are “fiction.” And while I wasn’t there, I have worked with and adore them both. They are uniquely talented, cool under fire, cutting-edge creative professionals, admired and respected by their peers of all political persuasions and their many high-level bosses.”
http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/18/matalin.palin.book/index.html
According to CNN: “Matalin has worked for Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. She formerly held the White House positions of assistant to President George W. Bush and counselor to Vice President Dick Cheney.
So once again, it is the childish and chronic victim $arah palin who seemingly cannot get along with anyone. Karma is gonna get this charlatan…just give it a little more time…
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:17 pm
It’s such a joke that the tea partiers keep claiming that Sarah is the anti-establishment candidate. They need to look at who is backing her. Fox News, Limbaugh, Hannity, Bill Kristol, Fred Barnes, Dana Perino… These are down the line party people, power brokers in conservative media.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
I honestly think that none of the people on this side bar will be in this race for any ammount of time or even run. There are so many Senators and Governors or even successful businessman and women who could come out of now where in the next two years and lock it up before it even starts. This is nothing but having fun thinking we have a clue as to how things will shape up in 2011
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Matthew,
“Better we kept the gate locked and the party’s grassroots learned to love…….one that can dodge as well as punch”
That got me thinking, there’s a reason most fight fans would rather see Arturo Gatti (RIP) than Floyd Mayweather. As fight fans like myself know, Mayweather is the vastly superior fighter, possessing superior movement, speed, and smarts. In fact, he kicked the crap out of Gatti a few years ago. But Arturo Gatti was the closest thing to a real life Rocky movie in a long time, possibly ever. He was a blood and guts fighter, who was all offense and no defense. His fights were all action, all the time, and the first three rows of spectators were guaranteed to get spattered with the blood and sweat of Gatti and his opponent. Mayweather, on the other hand. has the best defense in the sport, and fights a much more intelligent fight, for a boxer who still wants to be coherent and sentient in his retirement. But his fights tend to be, well, boring.
Likewise, I think political fans often prefer the blood and guts fighter who puts on a better show- but loses- to the one with superior skills who tends to win, boringly. Here’s to hoping Republican primary voters go with skill over sizzle.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:25 pm
#8, eco delsol Says:
If you vote for huckabee you will be giving the Dems EXACTLY what they are salivating for. The Dems wanted huckabee as the nominee in 2008 for an “easy kill”, and you can bet they want him even more next time around after huckabee’s vile gaffe in which he said someone pointed a gun at Obama.
Perception from liberals and Democrats
“On December 11, 2007 the Drudge Report found out that the highest levels of the Democratic Party told their officials to avoid any criticism of 2008 Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee, until he would secure the nomination. One Democrat said “He’ll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill.” The last time the Democratic National Committee criticized Huckabee was on March 2nd, 2007.[54]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_image_of_Mike_Huckabee
“That was Barack Obama. He just tripped off a chair. He’s getting ready to speak and somebody aimed a gun at him and he — he dove for the floor.” — Mike Huckabee after his speech to the National Rifle Association was interrupted by a loud noise
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:27 pm
And I went down to the demonstration
To get my fair share of abuse
Singing, “We’re gonna vent our frustration
If we don’t we’re gonna blow a 50-amp fuse”
Sing it to me now…
You can’t always get what you want
But if you try sometimes well you just
might find
You get what you need
Oh Sarah, yeah!
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:31 pm
19. The Dems aren’t as smart as you think.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:32 pm
19. My stars, I had nearly forgotten. If someone doesn’t remind me of that hydrogen-bomb-grade catastrophe every 48 hours or so, it… just…. slips….. mmmy……..
W-wait a minute. Where was I? Oh, yeah. I was gonna eat a hotdog. Yum!
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
#21 -
…and sadly the Repubs aren’t as smart as you think.
David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, has stated recently that they couldn’t believe their good luck when Mccain chose the unqualified to be VP/Pres palin as his nominee, which totally undermined McCain’s argument that Obama was unqualified.
I can just see Plouffe 3 years from now saying: We just couldn’t believe our good luck when the Repubs nominated huckabee, WHOM HAD JOKED ABOUT THE ASSASSINATION OF OUR PRESIDENT.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
MWS,
You’re a boxing fan, too? Cool. I probably follow boxing as much as any sport, though maybe that’s not saying much. Did you see that Pacquiao vs. Cotto fight? I’m super-excited about a possible Pacquiao/Mayweather fight. You’re right about Mayweather’s skills but Pacquiao is maybe the most purely athletic fighter I’ve seen in…well, awhile. You can, to some degree, train for power and normal speed, but being able to find holes before they’re even there- the pure reflexive neatness involved in that- is just something you can’t teach. I wouldn’t put any money on Mayweather if that fight goes down.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Contrast Palin’s style with that of Mitch Daniels in the clip posted on the site earlier today. Daniels, not Palin, is the one who connects with the average middle class, middle of the road Cloth Coat Middle American via his ability to convey a quiet exasperation at Democratic policies, not because Democrats and liberals are inherently evil, but because Democratic policies aren’t making our country better and will ultimately make it worse.
The people who say that Palin “connects” with the Cloth Coat Independents are generally those who haven’t had to shop at WalMart for a cloth coat in twenty years. When was the last time Bill Kristol was seen in such an establishment? The elites of the GOP who want to use Palin to connect with the masses insult the very masses which they hope to attract.
The Tea Parties began long before Obama’s approval rating started to slide. The Beck/TP crowd are not the Cloth Coat Independents. They are and have always been ideologues who oppose Democrats because Democrats Are Bad. That’s fine; we need those people, because they’re the ones who will trudge through snow in New Hampshire to get out the vote. But they are supposed to be activated by talk radio, not by the presidential nominee. In 1994, Rush threw the red meat, while Newt talked issues. Now, Beck throws the red meat, and Palin, er, throws more red meat. What happened to the issues?
The Cloth Coat Independents are looking for someone who, like Daniels, opposes Obama because his policies are leading the country in the wrong direction. Daniels’ quiet exasperation in the clip below is not dissimilar to that of Frank Luntz’s focus group of swing voters from Virginia on Election Night ‘09. Their sentitments are the same: Oh look, now that wonderful president of ours is adding more to the national debt. I wonder who’s going to pay for it. Oh, and here come massive changes to our health care system that no one seems to understand. Why do I not trust the government to not screw the whole system up? Wait, didn’t Obama just increase our national debt by a trillion dollars and not create a single new job? What did we elect this guy for anyway?
The reason the Palin/Perry crowd can never tap into Cloth Coat angst is that they are secessionist. They are the right-wing version of leftists who threaten to run to Canada because they assume all Americans are uneducated, unsophisticated hicks. The Palins of the world assume that most Americans are a bunch of godless socialists who have given up on the Constitution, embrace the “pornography” of Playgirl, and who dare to believe in macroevolution. The average middle class person isn’t going to vote for someone on the Left who thinks they’re a hick, nor will they vote for someone on the Right who thinks they’re a heathen.
I’m pretty sure that Obama will look so weak by 2011 that every Republican who has ever wanted to be president will throw his or her hat into the ring. I can only hope that out of that mess rises a candidate who embodies the righteous indignation of quiet competence.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
23. Oh, yes they are.
Watch and learn in ‘10 and ‘12.
November 22nd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
You get what you need, ah yes…
November 22nd, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Good luck with keeping the gates locked, Miller, a metaphor as apt as it is unfortunate. That worked so well in NY23 and Florida.
Clue: In the U.S. party system it is pay to play. If what you call the grass roots–I prefer the term voters–can organize, can mobilize across political boundaries, can recruit candidates, can raise and effectively dispose of funds to achieve their goals, and can do so more effectively than other interest groups, then you can no more stop them then you command the sun not to shine or water to run uphill. The fate of the party is in their hands, not in the hands of any imaginary gatekeepers.
November 22nd, 2009 at 3:11 pm
I agree wholeheartedly, DaveG.
Honestly, I haven’t seen much of Daniels before, but the attitude he exhibits in that short clip posted earlier today is pitch-perfect. It’s intelligent and straight to the point, without much fanfare. If that’s his normal tone, I’d love to see him throw his hat in the ring for 2012. The quiet confidence (and competence) would be a stark contrast with the flash and sizzle (but no steak) that exists with Obama. Beck, Limbaugh, et al. can continue to throw the red meat, but someone actually has to run on issues and speak to the vast majority of those within this country that do not operate within the margins (either far left or fringe right).
I saw a lot of that quiet confidence in Palin during her initial governor’s race. Once she was plucked for the national stage, however, that seemed to go by the wayside and a new, re-branded Palin emerged (to our detriment, as this one seems more interested in slinging arrows than doing the back-breaking work required to win hearts and minds).
I like Romney, and I like Pawlenty, but people like Daniels and Gregg seem to possess a demeanor that is closer to that of a majority of the country. Living here in Virginia, I just saw a down-the-line conservative Republican blowout a moderate Democrat in the governor’s race. He did so by speaking to the issues most people cared about and ignoring the partisan mud-slinging. In that, people saw a leader, not a politician. When given a choice between the two, I believe most people will vote for the former. Then again, maybe I just gravitate towards people like McDonnell and Daniels more easily than most because I, too, am a boring individual. We’ll see what happens in 2012, should he decide to run. For now, I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
November 22nd, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Since when is flip flopping common sense? Romney must be having delusions.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Romney? Delusions? Flip-flopping? You repeat yourself.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:14 pm
I’m not intending to read Sarah’s book as she just doesn’t do anything for me… not excited or annoyed, just completely indifferent.
For those of you reading her book, does Sarah make any comments about any of the other candidates from 2008? She must have met some of them. I recall having seen a few pictures of Romney on stage with her and McCain. I can only assume she met Rudy, Mike, and others on the campaign trail as well. I had read that Cindy McCain and Ann Romney hit it off pretty well. I’m wondering if there were any “kindred spirit/ hit it off” friendships that Sarah made.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Matthew,
I did see the Pacquiao-Cotto fight. I’m a big Cotto fan, having seen his fights with Judah, Mosley, Margarito, and parts of others with Quintana, Malinaggi, etc….
It’s tough seeing your hero get beat up like that, but damn, I think Pacquiao is the most complete package I’ve ever seen. I’d definitely take him over Mayweather at even odds, but I don’t know that he’s ever fought anyone quite like Mayweather. Then again, it’s impossible Mayweather has fought anyone like Pacquiao.
Quite honestly, the way Mayweather ducks fights with guys who can actually hurt him (Mosley, Cotto, Margarito, Williams), I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight doesn’t happen. But dang, there’s so much money on the table for both of them, and it would be thecareer defining moment for both of them. It’s like they’ve each come through a single elimination tournament for this moment.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Dave,
“Contrast Palin’s style with that of Mitch Daniels in the clip posted on the site earlier today.”
I actually thought the exact same thing as I was watching that clip. As much as I like many of the things that Sarah has come to represent, I have never seen her speak like that, especially off the cuff, nor could I really imagine it.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Dave,
“I’m pretty sure that Obama will look so weak by 2011 that every Republican who has ever wanted to be president will throw his or her hat into the ring. ”
I’m starting to think the same thing. We only really talk about the Big 4, but if Obama continues like he is, I wouldn’t be surprised if we have at least 8-10 current or former governors and Senators running for President.
BTW, I haven’t come across the term, “cloth coat independents” yet. I read most of your FPPs. Have you developed or discussed that concept in one of them before?
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:43 pm
MWS,
Yeah. I know what you mean; I was a De La Hoya fan (well, somewhat of a fan) and I just remember being shocked when Pacquiao took him apart. Yeah, Oscar was well past his prime but still…And I know you can’t do 1 to 1 comparisons for this sort of thing, and yeah there was a year and a half in between, but I just can’t help comparing De La Hoya/Mayweather (which was a real even fight) in 08′ to De La Hoya/Pacquiao which was nothing than a massacre.
November 22nd, 2009 at 4:45 pm
MWS,
He’s referring to the Nixon Checkers Speech, where Nixon said something like “my wife has a good republican cloth coat, not a Mink Coat”.
November 22nd, 2009 at 7:07 pm
I think DaveG hit it right on the head when it comes to Palin and Daniels. Daniels is uniquely equipped to not only unite the party, but go on to topple Obama. Daniels is both plain spoken and extremely intelligent, a graduate of Princeton and Georgetown, and can convey a message that those of us who didn’t attend Ivy League schools can connect with. His resume is perfectly suited to contrast with Obama’s record; a midwestern governor who has improved dramatically his state’s economy by cutting government spending, slashing the size of government, lowering taxes, and restoring fiscal discipline. Fiscal responsibility is the issue that can unite conservatives, moderates, and independents alike, and Daniels is likely the best example of this much desired fiscal sanity. He is also experienced, and perhaps the only candidate who can post a more impressive public/private sector resume mix then Romney. He not only has governed successfully, but he has also run successful campaigns, bringing a strategic mind to the table that will be needed to combat the Obama machine. He also brings diversity, being a first generation Syrian-American. Daniels at this early stage and similar to other potential candidates like Pawlenty and Thune has the potential to unite the Romney/Huckabee wings of the party in ways those two can’t. This is why I think in the end it will be Daniels, Thune, or Pawlenty getting the nod.
Also, I wouldn’t lump Perry in completely with Palin. He is far more experienced then she is, serving as Lt. Governor and now is the second longest serving Governor in the country, as well as past service in the US Airforce. He does appeal to the Tea Party crowd, but he is more intelligent then Palin, and he also possess much of the same large donor base that put George W. Bush in the White House, a combination that would make him a tough potential candidate.
Do I feel Romney, Huckabee, or Palin could win the nomination? Of course, they each have advantages of their own that appeal to their own bases. But I think the will to beat Obama will supersede any loyalty any group has to a particular candidate, and the new faces of Pawlenty, Thune, Daniels, and Perry will have a better chance to unite the party, bringing none of the 2008 baggage that the ‘Big Three’ bring.
November 22nd, 2009 at 7:08 pm
I heard Dennis Miller’s interview with Governor Palin the other day. Miller is a pretty independent guy, does not have a dog in this fight, and is typically a very good prognosticator of American sentiment. He seemed extremely bullish about Governor Palin’s chances of being elected President and did everything but officially endorse her candidacy. I have also heard Dick Morris recently suggest that he sees a Palin Presidency in 2012 as a very distinct possiblity and that all of the stars are lining up for huge Republican gains culminating in her ascension to the Presidency in 2012.
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Matthew, I think you are missing the entire Palin point. She doesn’t want to purge the GOP for a more purist, Right Wing agenda. The Tea Party movement is not about purging the GOP for a more purist, Right Wing agenda. Both Palin and the grassroots are for the most basic of Republican principles…lesser government. Nothing more and nothing less.
She may decide to endorse a more conservative candidate over a more liberal one but her motives are clear, to anyone who cares to listen, common sense conservatism…you didn’t think you could give that title to Romney without somebody calling you on it…did you? She is for smaller government. The Tea Party movement is for smaller government. Why do people not want to see that? Why do you not want to acknowledge that?
I have no idea what will happen in a little over 3 years but I do know when I cast my vote in 2012 it will not be for a candidate who wants government to grow or even stay the same. Her record shows her skill at cutting waste and lessening government but for some reason the people in her own party want to declare a culture war on her.
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:26 pm
#39 Since when is Dick Morris right about anything? He at one time was an advisor to Hillary Clinton and thought she was the greatest thing since sliced bread. What judgement!!
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:33 pm
So Dick Morris and and Dennis Miller are now leaders in the GOP??
God help us.
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:39 pm
#1
“expect Huckabee and Palin to try and endorse the anti-Romney candidate”
Why would Palin endorse an anti-Romney candidate?? There’s no surprise that Huckabee WILL do so, but why Palin? She doesn’t have a problems with Mormons, Romney’s positions nor has had any contention with him.
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:41 pm
#18
Amen Bro!
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:48 pm
ComCon,
Now we just need to come to an agreement on who has the steak, and who has the sizzle.
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:56 pm
#45
By “sizzle” do you mean “charisma” or “hype” or “obama like mania”? Who know who has the mad skills:)
Who knows, maybe T-Paw will have the sizzle. I don’t see Palin or Huck having the “sizzle” if it means any of the definitions above other than hype.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Matthew and MWS,
Here are a couple of shots I snapped of De la Hoya and Mayweather when I met them down here at the Super Bowl. These were taken three months before their fight in May 2007.
Floyd Mayweather
http://race42008.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/SB-Week-098.jpg
Oscar De la Hoya
http://race42008.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/SB-Week-097.jpg
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:08 pm
#45, 46
Sorry for the mispellings. Meant to say “We know who has the mad skills.”
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:03 am
Why is everybody so pre-occupied with whether Palin is a good candidate or not. I thought that was why we had primaries. When the Republican primaries come around all the candidates will have a chance to make their case. Why are some Republicans so dismissive of their fellow party members intelligence that they have to try to hand-pick who should or shouldn’t be considered a suitable presidential candidate. For the record I have seen things that make me beleive Palin would be a strong presidential candidate and also seen things that make think she would be terrible. Same thing can be said for many of the other potential candidates at this time e.g Romney, Pawlenty, Jindal, Guilliani e.t.c. Yet I don’t see people obsessing over the negatives of any these individuals. But all most people want to obsess about is how Palin is dividing the party, how she is destroying the republican brand, how she is stupid. Well if you ask me the Republican brand party has been in trouble since before 2006, long before Palin was even heard of nationally. Constantly discussing Republican problems while making Palin the centerpiece of the argument makes no sense to me. It is nothing but a side-show that takes the focus off where the real problems are.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:22 am
FTW!
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:29 am
#49 Right On! Making Palin the centerpeice of an argument whether good or bad is quite stupid given the nation’s problems.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:10 am
True conservatives?
Therein lies the problem. Obsessing over who is more conservative than whom is futile. As is questioning the degree of trueness of anyone’s so-called conservatism.
John McCain has and over 80% conservative lifetime rating, yet he wasn’t a so-called true conservative.
Rudy was too liberal on social matters, so people like you thought that negated his law enforcement, national security, and pro-business conservatism.
Mike Huckabee is simply a single-issue conservative: a pro-life crusader, and longer and harder than anyone else, aw shucks. Everywhere else, he was to the left of the Republican party. He rasied taxes in Arkansas (more than Bill Clinton did as governor there), which Huck called building roads and hospitals. He had more pardons and commutations than his 3 predessors combined! Including his very own Willie Horton act who, after having been freed on the basis of having found Jesus in the joint, went on to rape and murder, as most rapists do.
Mitt Romney was too much of an intellectual and just from the wrong state to be considered a conservative, despite the blatant displays of his success in business and government and of course his family values and the adherence to the strictest, most conservative religion in the country, mormonism.
Like every candidate, every president, and every human being, the GOP of 2008 had its flaws, and none was greater than any flaw from any candidate from any past election in modern history. They each had their merits and qualities that positioned them to reach the level of prominence in public life to be on the national stage.
If the model of attitude over disqualifications over inadequate conservatism is going to extend from 2008 to 2012, then we’ve already lost because, if that model were extant in 1980, surely Ronald Reagan would’ve been disqualified due to his flip-flop from Democrat to Republian (how could this be trusted?), his divorce (he broke a promise to the Lord, a strike against the family), and of coures his entire involvement with Hollywood would be a huge red flag (they’re all socialists).
Wake up, Republicans. Cultural identity is a dead end. Vote on the basis of the merits, of the philosophy, of electability. Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin….neither would get one-third of the vote. It’d be humiliating.
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Too intellectual!? I have never accused Romney–nor has anyone else–of being “too intellectual”–snarf!–guffaw! The man is a dullard of the dullest order. Knuckle-dragging rubes look to Romney to feel better about themselves.
His “success” in business reduces to exporting manufacturing jobs overseas while developing retail businesses here at home. He profited from the decline of the U.S., just like he now wants to personally profit from the free fall of our political system. Had you a bicron’s width of integrity or understanding, you would be asking me how you and I can stop this gibbering idiot now, before the primaries ever begin.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:37 pm
#53 You seem obsessed in your hatred of Romney, so it begs the question who do you like, or do you just hate them all, but Romney especially?
November 24th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Great news, mittwits. Shout it from the rooftops.
Poll: Romney’s favorables now below 50% among Republicans?
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/23/poll-romneys-favorables-now-below-50-among-republicans/
Money quote:
November 25th, 2009 at 6:54 am
DS (not me, perhaps my alter ego!): “Mike Huckabee is simply a single-issue conservative”
You are making it up as you go, aren’t you? He has a long record against gun control, he was against even the first small bailout, recognizing it only helped China; he is for the Fair Tax, he is for allowing Israeli settlements, his state was one of the first to pass a marriage amendment, he was against TARP and Bailout II, he’s against RomneyCare and Obamacare, he is for state’s rights, etc.