The latest Rasmussen poll on the Arizona gubernatorial race has Joe Arpaio (Maricopa County sheriff) beating Terry Goddard (Democratic candidate presumptive, current Attorney General, and former mayor of Phoenix) quite handily, 51-39. Whether Arpaio will run is unknown.
I admit to some (pleasant) surprise — I have been looking at Goddard as nearly unbeatable. State Treasurer Dean Martin also makes a close race of it, losing to Goddard 40-38, well within MoE.
Incumbent Jan Brewer, who is the only announced candidate of either party, is losing 44-35, about the same as in Rasmussen’s last poll in September, when it was 42-35.
Rasmussen Arizona Gubernatorial Race
- Goddard: 44%
- Brewer: 35%
- Goddard: 39%
- Arpaio: 51%
- Goddard: 40%
- Martin: 38%
Survey of 1200 likely voters, November 18. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Sheriff Arpaio sounds like an ass.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Arpaio?!
This poll cannot be accurate.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Kevin, this poll is very accurate. Sheriff Arpaio is the sheriff of Maricopa County, which houses something like 4 million residents (the Phoenix metro). Arpaio was voted in with almost 1 million votes last time around (no stranger to being an elected official). He is a popular statewide figure for his work in Phoenix, and would coast to the governor’s mansion easily.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
WOW
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Vernon Parker should have been included. We could beat Goddard also.
http://www.parker2010.com/
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Parker seems like a good guy but thus far he does not seem to be catching fire. Unless he has some serious money, he’s going to have a hard time catching up with the bigger names in the race — mayor of PV is not a high-profile position.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Dean Martin will beat Goddard because Arpaio will not run. The real key for the GOP is making sure Jan Brewer doesn’t win the GOP primary against a divided field.
The base hates her but she will still probably win 30-40% in a GOP primary. We need to consolidate around a challenger. My choice would be Jeff Flake but there is no way the state GOP puts up an LDS nominee for the 3rd straight time, especially when the last two lost.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:25 pm
I’d rather Flake stay in the House unless he’s the only hope (andI don’t think he will be).
Besides, I’ve already chosen him as Mitch Daniels’ running mate in ‘12.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Dskinner, I do not think that the last GOP candidate was LDS. Anyway, Flake would easily win.
In regards to Arpaio, he will not run…too many skeletons in his closet, which would not only affect his gubernatorial run but his personal freedom.
Martin has a legitimate chance, but Brewer is the only true hope, but it depends on what gets done during the legislative session in Jan.
November 24th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
The voters of Arizona should REALLY look at Arpaio before voting FOR him. Especially his budget The man has not been able to operate within budget for the entire time he has been in office. Now is NOT the time to vote for a Governor based on his immigration stance but on his ability to work with other governmental agencies and groups and has demonstrated he can work within his budget. Neither of which The Sheriff of Maricopa County has a demonstrated the ability to do. What’s he going to do as Governor to handle the jobs, budget and inflation issues affecting this state? Make everyone on food stamps and unemployment eat green bologna?