According to the Des Moines Register, Obama’s approval in Iowa is now 49%. This is in the very heart of populist country.
It is a over two years before the Primaries and Caucuses start in 2012. People who seriously rely upon polls this far out to be deterministic have been proven to be fools time and time again. So we should not read too much into this.
However, if the trend continues, we might see a primary challenge to Barack Obama in 2012. After all, Hillary Clinton isn’t getting any younger. It is 2012 or never for her.
So how low must Obama’s numbers go before he needs to seriously concern himself with a 2012 challenge? And if not Hillary, who? Certainly not Joe Biden.
To challenge a setting President, the challenger must have plenty of national prestige to begin with. What Democrat beside Hillary fits that bill? Teddy Kennedy has gone to join his ancestors. Harry Reid and Larry Byrd look like they may join him any day now. John Edwards has effectively removed himself from contention. Who’s left? Anybody?
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Old.
http://race42008.com/2009/11/22/poll-watch-des-moines-register-iowa-survey-on-barack-obama/
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Actually, I’ve heard Hillary Clinton is getting younger. Some high-tech medical technology.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:09 pm
“Old”
And your point?
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Well, Hillary could concievably run in 2016 as well. She’ll only be 69, same age as Ronald Reagan.
As for a primary challenge, I don’t think one is likely. But if there is going to be one, it’ll be from the left. Howard Dean, or Dennis Kucinch or someone…
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Howard Dean? I would think he was damaged goods. That scream pretty much killed him. Kucinch IS a possibility, but do you really think he has enough national prestige to pull it off?
So how low does Barack have to go before he becomes a tempting target?
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:26 pm
It’s really more how low he goes with the Democrats, who so far still show the same high approvals.
I think 60s in approval would lead to a primary, but I don’t think that’ll happen.
As for President Kucinich, well, it’ll never happen, but I’d love it so, so much.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Kevin would love President Kucinich? Dear me.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:33 pm
It is very very hard to take on an incumbent President. Obama is good at raising money, and is still popular amongst Dems. So the chances of anyone taking him on is very unlikely.
Hillary could do it, but I don’t think she’d come close to winning – and it would tarnish her legacy such that I don’t think she would do it.
Gore could do it, but again he wouldn’t come close to winning, and he’s spent some time trying to be apolitical (he was very late to support Obama in 2008). Besides, Obama will probably do enough on climate change for Gore to feel that its a waste of time challenging him.
No one else has sufficient gravitas and national recognition in the Democratic base. Biden is happier as VP.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:33 pm
That’s among adults. Among likely voters, it’s down to 46 percent.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
“Larry Byrd”?
Did you perhaps mean our own Robert C. “Big Daddy” Byrd?
Halleluja! Yeah, man!
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:38 pm
“People who seriously rely upon polls this far out to be deterministic have been proven to be fools time and time again”
That would be due to the need for politicians to peak at the right time. The case book is full of negative examples, see:
- Dean, Howard (2004)
- Guiliani, Rudy (2007)
- McCain, John (August 2008)
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Hillary seems unlikely to give up her job to campaign against her former boss. I just can’t see it happening.
Perhaps some Dem congressman who gets booted out in 2010 will try a revenge bid.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:46 pm
#10,
You’re right. Robert Byrd looks like he is not long for this life. Larry Bird, the former Boston Celtics superstar is in excellent health, as far as I know.
I’ve gotta watch that sort of thing.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:54 pm
No one serious runs against BHO in 2012. His approval ratings will probably be higher than they are now but obviously lower than his inauguration day.
I still say that we would have been better off with HRC in office but we will never know. She never runs again.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:02 pm
- “Dean, Howard (2004)” … Unprepared!
- “Guiliani, Rudy (2007)” … Poor strategy, great guy!
- “McCain, John (August 2008)” … Ran into the ObamaKraze!
Bad examples.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm
There’s nobody else — it will be Hillary or nobody. As for Hillary — unlikely, but I wouldn’t rule anything out.
As a realist (and Hillary is nothing if not a realist) she would have to look at the history of challenges to an incumbent and shudder at the odds against her.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:19 pm
SarahToHuckInIowa, you’re not serious are you? (I blame the internet, you can’t be sure someone’s joking)
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Larry Bird is 52, and would presumably command a respectable portion of the vote in MA & IN. Would he run as a Democrat or a Republican though?
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:44 pm
JayPe, stay cool. Our guy looks good. ; )
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:54 pm
JayPe,
I think Democrat, but I may be wrong. Bird (larry) has had some minor health issues in recent years, but nothing serious I don’t think.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Hillary would, in my opinion, beat Obama in the 2012 primary. She barely lost to him when he was an unknown and at his peak, now that he has a terrible record attached to him, the Clinton years are looking better by the day.
Aside from Clinton, Vice President Gore could be a possibility, especially if Obama continues to fail on climate change. The battle of the two most undeserving Nobel winners not named Arafat would be quite a site. A primary challenge to Obama from Gore might be Al’s best chance to revive the flailing climate change hysteria.
Also, I could see Sen. Feingold challenging Obama from the left, honing in on rendition, Git’mo, continued wiretapping, secret prisons, failed torture prosecutions, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In fact, I think Obama could get hit from the right and left by Feingold and Clinton, with Feingold eventually dropping out, endorsing Clinton, and Clinton naming Feingold VP. In such a scenario, she could run away with the primary.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:51 pm
evan bayh
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Not sure why people are so obsessed with this Iowa poll when Obama’s favorable ratings have dropped 50+ points in 6 months in Virginia.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:40 pm
The heartland of this country is upset.
Stay tuned…
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:53 pm
I would predict if Obama faces any Dem challange it will be from Evan Bayh or Russ Feingold as someone said above.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:03 pm
Looks like Billy and Franklin Graham are on board with Governor Palin – could increase her odds in Iowa.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:18 pm
After the failures of Reagan in 1976 and Kennedy in 1980, any high profile candidate is going to be extremely reluctant to primary a sitting President. First of all, you have the fact that if the President’s approval numbers in the country are 40% they may be 80% among primary voters, so the incumbent probably needs to be in the 30% range for a Primary challenge to be feasible. AND he needs to drop to that range by the middle of their third year in office so the high profile candidate has time to jump in and raise money. No doubt Obama has sunk like a stone in the last six months, but he has leveled off and I really don’t see how he gets below 40% by the end of 2011, short of a massive national disaster (OK, so I CAN see how it could happen, but I hope it doesn’t). He may very well draw a challenge, but it will be more on the order of a protest candidate running more to raise their profile than to actually win, like a Kucinich or a Gavel.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:16 am
Evan Bayh was mentioned earlier. I’m not sure about him specifically, but a Bayh-type Democrat is more likely than anyone to challenge Obama. An opponent can’t come from the Left – what would they complain about, and who would that appeal to that wouldn’t already like Obama? A challenge could, however, come from Obama’s right – a respected moderate Democrat with fiscal common sense who could say to voters “There’s no need to vote Republican in 2012 – I’m the more responsible Obama you thought you were getting four years ago.” Bayh could be that guy, I suppose. Hillary could possibly make the case by harking back to Bill’s relatively fiscally-prudent days. There’s also a number of moderate Democratic House members who are beginning to sound out the warnings to the current administration to mind the deficit and watch the spending. These guys have two more years to start making a name for themselves.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:19 am
27. . . I wouldn’t call Reagan ‘76 a failure. Challenging a president from his own party he considered not worthy of a full term worked out pretty well for him four years later. I suspect many Dems may want to try that route if Obama’s numbers drop further by ‘11 and ‘12.
November 24th, 2009 at 7:22 am
#26:
There are certain moments in one’s political career that are highly determinative, positively or negatively. Meeting with Billy Graham was highly positive and yes could be extremely helpful in adding credibility to Sarah’s message to Iowans.
November 24th, 2009 at 8:57 am
#29: By failure, I meant that the campaign was not ultimately successful in ousting the incumbent. I see your general point that it didn’t hurt his 1980 campaign and may have even helped it by making him the clear frontrunner, but consider:
#1) The GOP usually nominates candidates who previously ran in the GOP primary and made a strong showing, the Democratic Party likes to nominate “fresh faces” so even if a challenger took Obama to the wire it wouldn’t help them win in 2016 if history is any guide.
#2) Even in Reagan’s case, a fair number of Gerald Ford’s supporters never really got over their impression of Reagan as a far right extremist. While Reagan did very well in 1980 overall, and managed to secure support from voters who had never previously voted Republican in their life, he also lost a number of former GOP support to John Anderson. In Obama’s case, he is very popular among black votera and I don’t think any Democrat who ever wants to become President would want to alienate those two constituencies by challenging Obama.
November 24th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
#28, oh believe me, go to the Kos. There is plenty of stuff to challenge Obama from the left with.
Health care, Afghanistsn, Gitmo, torture, financial reform…
November 24th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
…and don’t forget about gay marriage.