Gov. Jindal talks health care solutions on Fox News:
Is Eric Cantor eyeing a 2012 run?
While he might not admit it, Culpeper’s congressman could be one of the GOP’s best hopes.
It’s three years until the next presidential election, yet it’s never too early to gaze into our crystal ball. Let’s speculate as to which Republican might oppose Barack Obama — we’ll
assume he’s running for a second term — in 2012.John McCain is yesterday’s news. So is Mitt Romney. Golden boy Bobby Jindal shot himself in the foot. Sarah Palin? She’s become a sideshow who has splintered the party. Is
there anyone else?With no heir apparent, it’s shaping up to be another wide open field for the GOP, leaving the opportunity for someone like Eric Cantor to make a serious run — if he so decides — at
the world’s most important elected office.Wait a minute, you say. Isn’t Cantor Culpeper’s congressman? The next president coming from Culpeper? Come on!
Consider this: Cantor is one of the GOP’s rising stars. He’s the minority whip in the U.S. House, giving him considerable power. And if the GOP regains the House in 2010, his stock
will rise even more.Cantor is scandal-free and has done nothing to soil his image on the national scale. He keeps getting more face time on national news shows, and he’s even been spoofed a few
times on Saturday Night Live. He’s Jewish and his wife is a Democrat, two factors that could be spun quite nicely by GOP strategists. (Transparency note: Cantor’s wife, Diana,
serves on the board of trustees for the Star-Exponent’s parent company, Media General.)To be fair, Cantor has downplayed the rumors he might run for president — but doesn’t every politician at some point? Still, don’t be surprised if you see him take a shot at the Oval
Office, whether in 2012 or some point down the road.
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Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and Twitter/Kris_Lorelli
November 28th, 2009 at 11:46 am
At this point, you gotta say, unless she gets in a fatal snow machine accident, or hit by a bus walking downtown Anchorage, Sarah Palin will be our Republican Nominee for 2012.
There’s no question.
Did you all see that latest video of her in Washington State at the Red Cross charity event? It’s up at Gateway Pundit right now. The woman was mobbed by adoring fans. And this is in liberal Washington State!!
November 28th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Eric,
The tri-cities area where Palin was is not in liberal territory – far from it. The eastern side of Washington is conservative, and she has family roots there.
Yes, she’s getting huge crowds, her fans are hard-core. But it doesn’t necessarily translate to political success.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
#1:
When Palin was in Ft. Wayne IN, she got a huge crowd. A local newsreporter went up to and interviewed a few people. Almost to a person they said they liked Palin and thought she was great. However, when the same people were asked if they wanted her to run for President, most said “no” or “not yet”. Hoosiers are very common-sense oriented people (looked at their Governor). They like Palin, but they don’t think she’s ready to run for President of the United States.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
And will those fans still show up after 20 primary debates where she gets humiliated by real candidates who actually know policy and know what the bush doctrine was?
November 28th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
There will be 15-20 GOP candidates running for president in 2012 and the one who wins will be the one who can most effectively channel the anger of the voters on the ground into solutions. I honestly don’t know who fits that description at this point. I don’t think that 2012 is the year that will reward optimism though. The “It’s Morning in America” candidate is not what people will be looking for, because voters are convinced that it’s dusk in America and they’ll want someone who shares that view but can present constructive solutions against the backdrop of a pessimistic/realistic tone. Dour will win the day in 2012.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
#5:
With so many candidates potentially running, do you think there is a chance for a brokered convention, or at least not having a winner at the end of the primaries? If we get enough candidates with regional strength, or who can’t lay claim to the title of frontrunner, I think it could happen.
November 28th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Don’t you just love this sort of comment? “All over — Huck’s the man.” “Mitt has it in the bag — time to pick a VP.”
Earth to Eric: Yes, there is a question — there’s lots of them. That’s why we’re here, to discuss them.
DaveG: Do you really think there will be 15-20 Republican candidates. Even allowing for a couple joke candidates of the Mike Gravel or Harold Stassen ilk, I can’t come up with that many.
There are 14 on the left column, but several of those are clearly out or very unlikely to run (Bush, Crist, Huntman, Jindal, Petraeus, Sanford). I can add a few in: Daniels, maybe Pence or Cantor (though I doubt it for both of them). Usually a likely candidate or two decides to back a pass when they see how the field is shaping up.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
DaveG is both correct and incorrect.
15-20 candidates will have exploratory organizations, but less than 10 will be on the ballot in Iowa.
$ will make the decision for many.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
The fewer we have on the stage at the debates, the better for Romney, and bad news for Palin. As a Romney fan, I want each candidate to be asked many, many tough questions during the debates.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
You are probably about right Kristofer, there may be several candidates somewhat interested, but only a handful will be serious. Technically, there may be more than 10 on the ballot, but only a few will get delegates.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Bob Hovic:
Yes, those sorts of comments are always amusing. Some of us have learned to be a little more cautious with our prognosticating.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I agree there are likely 15-20 people who currently have dreams of the White House, but it’s hard to foresee more than 5-6 reasonably serious candidates, and maybe eight or so total.
November 28th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Couldn’t disagree more. Your problem, you want a candidate that the MSM and Democrats accept. That’s just not going to happen (McCain)! The more conservative the candidate is more intense the attacks are going to be. Do I really have to tell you this? The MSM and Democrats see Palin and Jindal as legitimate threats and will do anything to destroy them. There isn’t anything that’s out of bounds. Ask Palin’s daughters. The other side knows that many conservatives in potions of power will eventually start to back off from someone like Palin if they keep the insults up long enough. Conversely, the base is emboldened by the constant muggings and it only serves to solidify their support. (Please watch the videos of Palin’s book signing.)
The MSM said Jindal had a bad speech and weak conservative-in-power ran for the tall grass. (Except Rush Limbaugh by the way.) Palin is out? Are you kidding me? No one in our party attracts crowds and creates more excitement for conservatism than Sara. (Again, Youtube videos of her book tour!) Truthfully, I think Palin’s lack of support within the bowls of the Republican power structure is because the RINO’s are scared to death of her…she has a reputation of eating them alive. Maybe you’ve missed the latest polls, but Sarah she is headed North as Obama, his Party leadership and his ideas are heading South…and fast. Oh yeah, RINO’s aren’t doing to good in the polls either, as Sen. Graham.
Again, the base doesn’t care about negative attention; in fact, if the MSM approves of someone on our side they know something isn’t right (McCain!).
What I hear in the above column is a lack to of will to fight. If Cantor is a true conservative he will be the next target. What then? I’ll bet you’ll dump him and look for the next guy.
Remember, Reagan was a lazy stupid old man that slept through his meetings.
By the way, Mitt is old news because of his support for state run health care (RINO). McCain is out because he supports tax increases and global warming (RINO). Huckabee hired Ed Rollins and attacked Rush Limbaugh!?!?! (RINO). The base wants a real conservatives…RINO’s are out! Palin and Jindal are in.
November 28th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
A Palin / Huck winning ticket!
No doubt… if they both run.
November 28th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
13. Matt, Rollins worked for Reagan.
Is he also a RINO?
You keep using that word…I don’t think it means what you think it means.
November 28th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
“You keep using that word…I don’t think it means what you think it means.”
As marK put it once (I paraphrase): RINO = Someone I dislike. “Real conservative” = My guy.
November 28th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Let’s break down these 15-20 candidates in no particular order, and I will tell you why they will/won’t run in 2012:
1. Mitt Romney – very likely to run, in fact in many ways running already, his organization and campaign team are still in place and still on the payroll working to collect chits for a run. His book deal and his selective appearances show the designs of a national strategy.
2. Mike Huckabee – unlikely to run, Huckabee has been very honest about his desire to remain on his TV and radio shows, and leaving them for a longshot presidential bid is not likely, especially with more candidates in 2012 who appeal to social conservatives then in previous years.
3. Sarah Palin – toss up, her reasons to run or not to run will both likely hinder on how much it benefits her. her quitting the governorship indicates she has little interest in governing at this point and would prefer to help the party as a celebrity pundit/tv host/radio host/author. Like Huckabee, she is unlikely to leave behind a lucrative private sector career for the grind of the presidency.
4. Tim Pawlenty – likely to run, Pawlenty is clearly attempting to build a national team capable of competing with Romney’s, attempting to become the establishment alternative to Romney. His decision not to seek a 3rd term and the high profile team he built for his PAC are the clear giveaway.
5. John Thune – likely to run, Sen. Thune has not gotten the same attention as Pawlenty recently, but that’s because his team and PAC are already assembled, built under the guise of his senate reelection. He has a top campaign manager and a deep war chest, and no opponent yet for 2010. Looks like overkill, unless you have 2012 in mind.
6. Haley Barbour – unlikely to run, Barbour is perhaps the best strategist in the party, but that doesn’t mean he would translate to being a great candidate. His lobbyist background, his state’s poverty levels, and his old, white, southern stereotypical background will make him unlikely to enter the race.
7. Newt Gingrich – likely to run, Speaker Gingrich tends to always rope people in with his ‘will he or won’t he’ charade he puts on every four years. However, 2012 is likely his last chance to tease this run without delivering because no one will take him seriously at age 73 in 2016. This is last chance to influence the debate on the biggest stage, and he will likely finally take the bait.
8. Mitch Daniels – toss up, Daniels is probably the favorite of insiders as well as some outsiders, his resume seems to set up perfectly with what the GOP wants in the next several cycles. He is reluctant, and doesn’t have the same ambition that Romney and Pawlenty have. He will need convincing by party officials.
9. Jim DeMint – unlikely to run, DeMint has been campaigning for conservative candidates and is looking to influence races, but he also seems to understand his own limited appeal, and his endorsement of Romney in 2008 shows he will likely be pragmatic when winning is on the line.
10. Jeb Bush – toss up, negatives of his last name get smaller by the day and his resume and appeal remain strong in this potential field. The Bush name is still strong with the party and the establishment, and Jeb has his own collection of chits and family friends that could help quickly build a national operation. However, he clearly does not have the same ambition of his brother, and could pass, choosing to back someone else, and pass the family legacy on to his son, George P. Bush.
11. Rudy Giuliani – unlikely to run, though the former Mayor clearly still wants the top job, and may run for the senate merely to have a shot at the White House, he also has a history of avoiding tough races when possible. 2012 will be tougher for him then 2008, making it unlikely the Mayor takes on the uphill climb.
12. Rick Perry – likely to run, he reelection bid against KBH is going strong, with KBH refusing to resign her seat, proving the polls don’t bode well for her primary chances. This primary is a good test run for Perry in a potential Iowa contest. He is making his reelection a national issue, taking on Washington, Obama, and the deficit. Sounds like he is test driving 2012 messages. Few have more ambition then Perry.
13. David Petraeus – unlikely to run, he has flatly said no as blatantly as possible, and despite rumors that his aides compare him to Eisenhower, his future might more resemble Colin Powell’s, as a respected statesman and potential cabinet member.
14. Ron Paul – unlikely to run, Paul’s followers haven’t gone away, in fact there seems to be more. But at 77 years old, another run is likely not in the cards. With other candidates staking out similar positions to Paul, look for him to play kingmaker rather then run for the throne himself.
15. Gary Johnson – likely to run, the most like receiver of that Ron Paul endorsement, and with the libertarian message that can expand on Paul’s success the most, Johnson is already preparing a run, establishing a PAC and building a team.
16. Mike Pence – unlikely to run, with the Indiana governorship up in 2012 and perhaps a senate seat if Sen. Luger retires, Pence is far more likely to aim statewide then to take a shot at the uphill presidential slog.
17. Eric Cantor – unlikely to run, Cantor is already #2 in the House leadership and seems to have a probable path to the Speakership, he is unlikely to give that up for a long, longshot bid at the presidency.
18. Paul Ryan – unlikely to run, another congressman unlikely to make the jump into the 2012 campaign due to the extreme difficultly in being nominated from the House. Only one congressman in history has gone directly from the House to the presidency. Ryan is unlikely to surrender his positions on key committees that would grant him great power if and when the GOP takes back the House.
19. Rick Santorum – likely to run, what else is he going to do? The former senator has a small niche and will likely jump in for the sake of jumping in. Granted there are issues he is passionate about, and with most candidates focusing on economic issues, Santorum will likely take up the social issue mantle and play a small role in 2012.
20. Jon Huntsman Jr. – unlikely to run, Huntsman’s calculation upon accepting the Ambassadorship to China is likely to aim for the 2016 nomination with an impressive resume and vast financial resources on his side. However, he may have misjudged Obama’s strength, and having served him may do more harm then good to Huntsman down the line. If he were to step down in the near future he could salvage 2012 a fill the role McCain filled in 2008. But time is running out.
21. Dick Cheney – toss up, yes it seems impossible to consider Cheney running in 2012, but clearly he still has a lot to say, as well as having a curiously timed memoir being released just as the 2012 primary campaign kicks off. Like Gingrich, this could be Cheney’s last chance to shape the debate and have major influence, and he may take it.
22. Bobby Jindal – unlikely to run, Jindal is clearly running a marathon not a sprint, and seems to be dead set on reelection in 2011, eliminating him from 2012 consideration. But his continued success in a second term puts Jindal in the drivers seat for a 2016 bid, and that seems to be where he is aiming. Though a VP bid could be in the cards for 2012.
23. Charlie Crist – unlikely to run, It was clear Crist wanted on the 2008 ticket, and definitely has the ambition, but his collapse against Rubio and at this point likely primary defeat will ruin any 2012 hopes, and perhaps any future presidential hopes. At this point even if he wins the primary and senate race in 2010, he has been cast as a RINO, and will never win over the base needed to win a presidential primary.
recap:
Likely to run: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum
Toss up: Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney
Unlikely to run: Mike Huckabee, Haley Barbour, Rudy Giuliani, David Petraeus, Ron Paul, Mike Pence, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, Jon Huntsman Jr., Bobby Jindal, Charlie Crist
November 28th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Lol at no 1.
You will lool silly.
November 29th, 2009 at 6:16 am
Interesting 17.
Still think it’s too early for Bush to run and he’s nothing if not a pragmatist so if he really wants to be President it will be in 2016/2020.
Perry I’ve been saying for months is an underdog but thinking it through logically he can’t really start running just as soon as he’s won a 4th term on an anti-Washington platform and no doubt ruling out a 2012 bid! If anything he might be the Thompson of the race – basically drafted to run as the conservative in mid 2011.
Otherwise I think you are pretty much on the ball well done.