This just appeared on Politico:
Mike Huckabee, the former Republican governor from Arkansas who has his own Fox show told Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday” that a 2012 presidential bid is “less than likely” and depends on whether Roger Ailes, the head of Fox News, keeps liking his show.“The reason I wouldn’t is that this Fox gig I’ve got is really wonderful, ” he said, talking about whether or not he would get in the race given that he is a GOP front runner according to most recent polls. “Jumping into the pool, you gotta make sure there is some water in it.”
I called it back in July. This is what I said back then:
I thought long and hard before putting Mike here (under the “Not Running” category). A few months ago I would have said, “Of course he is running”. I can’t say that anymore. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable with his TV show. It is certainly a popular one. More and more Fox affiliates pick it up. Now a successful media spot does not necessarily preclude a Presidential Run. Ronald Reagan had a long time radio show, too, but it always seemed a means to an end for him – a temporary post on his way up. Huckabee, on the other hand, seems to be really thriving there. It’s his baby. Will he give it up for the long hours, the hotels, the airports, the building up and running the campaign organization, the countless hands to shake of people you’ve never met and never will again, the constant scrutiny by unfriendly eyes waiting for the least little slip to use against you, the never-ending strategy meetings, and the endless rounds of banquet dinners that all taste the same? He has been there, done that. If he is smart, he won’t go back if he has something better; and he is, and he does.
I hope all my prognostications turn out as well, especially the one about Obama being a one-term President.
November 29th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
I hope so. I hope he doesn’t realize he has a better shot at the nomination than anyone else.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
I think he is trying to claim the GOP establishment vote if Romney falters. I agree with Huck’s assessment that he cannot win if the GOP elites and the Beltway does not get reasonably behind him. The unknown factor is Romney: will he rebound from his abyssmal PPP F/UF among conservatives (46/22) and Republicans (48/19)last month and similar numbers for several months or languish in no man’s land for several more months or even a year.
By November 2010 we will have a better idea where Huck, Romney and of course Palin stands in the polls.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
marK,
Before you bruise your back, consider that Presidential candidates- especially frontrunners are usually very coy. Maybe he’s being candid, but even if he had his heart set on it, he’d probably say the same thing. As soon as a frontrunner effectively declares, he puts the target on his chest.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
bob,
Question, if you use the word “abysmal” to describe those somewhat mediocre numbers, just what word do you use to describe numbers that are far worse?
Besides, as I have said before, favorable/unfavorable polling numbers are about as useful as a bucket of warm spit. The question that really matters is “Whom are you going to vote for?”, not “Whom do you like?”. You vote for the person you think will be the best man for the job, not the person you like the most. There are tons of people I think much higher of than just about any politician, but I never would vote for them as President of the United States.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Lol if you think this means Huck is not running.
Even Mitt has said that he can’t see himself running (some even fell for that!).
He may not run but if not he certainly hadn’t decided in Nov 2009.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
I don’t plan on voting for Huckabee if he does run, but I hope he jumps into the race. If not, his voters have to go somewhere and if conventional wisdom is correct (always a big assumption) they will go to Palin. Combining both Huckabee and Palin voters together, it would be very hard for the rest of us to stop them.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
I sure hope you are right marK. This would be great news.
To the Huck fans I would like to extend an invitation to come join MWS and I in supporting Pawlenty. I am sure that MWS wanted to extend this invitation, but it just slipped his mind in the heat of the moment of rebutting marK.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
MWS,
Huckabee IS the frontrunner in most polls right now. There is already a great big bull’s eye on his chest.
No, I highly doubt Mike will run for the very reasons I stated clear back in July.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
NO!!!! PLEASE RUN HUCK.
Who do y’all think will win his supporters if he opts out? I don’t think Palin is running. Glad you think Obama will only serve one term. Any idea who you think will be his successor?
November 29th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
Heath,
Kindly show me the quote from Mitt that says he is not running or is not likely to run in 2012. I would very much like to read it.
I am, of course, aware of all the non-denial denials that most of the candidates of said, usually along the lines of “I haven’t made up my mind yet”, or “I worried about the 2010 election right now. That’s all I’m thinking about”. But I do not recall a single quote where he said he is not likely to run in 2012. Would you mind finding it for me?
November 29th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
John B, since Huck and Palin are both populists, I expect that Palin will get most of them. Also, since Huck has a vendetta against Romney I expect him to throw his support behing the candidate with the best chance of beating Romney. If Huck is out, then Palin would be the best bet to beat Romney if Huck can swing his backers to Palin.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
John B.: “I don’t think Palin is running. Glad you think Obama will only serve one term. Any idea who you think will be his successor?”
I don’t think she is running, either. As to who is Obama’s successor might be, I know whom I would LIKE it to be, but predicting this far whom it WILL be is tough. Right now I think the strongest candidates for the job or Romney and Pawlenty, but some of the other dark horses are looking good. We shall have to wait for it to play out.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
A smart person made the analogy the other day between the McCain/Rudy bloc in 2008 being analogous to the Palin/Huckabee bloc in 2012.
Either McCain or Rudy was going to win in 2008 and Rudy’s fall led to McCain’s rise (it was the other way around during the summer of 2007 when McCain’s campaign was dead and Rudy was running away with it). McCain/Rudy accounted for about half the voting electorate in 2008 just as Palin/Huckabee are accounting for around half the voting electorate in 2012.
Not sure if I agree with the analogy but it’s certainly an interesting one to draw.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Actually, DanL, I think Huckabee is a little embarrassed by his vendetta against Mitt last year. It was very unseemly of him, a former man of the cloth. I think he is trying to turn over a new leaf.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Tommy,
The biggest problem with that analogy is that it presupposes that either Palin or Huckabee will run. At this point, I have severe doubts either one will run. Then where do all those populist votes go?
Should be interesting.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Suspected Police Assassin Was Pardoned by Gov. Huckabee in 2004!
http://minx.cc/?post=295248
November 29th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
#15:
Why do you think that Palin isnt’ running? Is it the scrutiny, or the fact that she knows she probably can’t win?
November 29th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
This is not good news for Huck and may explain Huck’s hesitancy to run today:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010385617_webmansought29.html
November 29th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
14 marK, a new leaf such as the newly added chapter to his book in which he further blasts Romney. Graham wrote about it a week or so ago.
Grahams words (and no, he doesn’t name Romney specifically, but it is clear who Huck is talking about) “Huckabee criticizes TARP and the Stimulus, writing of Stimulus supporters, and points to his opposition, as well as the hypocrisy of many of his primary assailants in opposing TARP. Huckabee wrote, “I watched in disbelief and disgust as some of the most vocal critics of my campaign lined up like penguins to the march and said, ‘We have to do it.’ What? How dare they question my conservative credentials for balancing my state’s budget and then proposing something as leftist as having the government jump in, nationalize banks, pay off bad mortgages at the expense of people who took out good ones, and subsidize insurance companies, automakers, and Wall Street brokerage firms so they could stay in business.””
http://race42008.com/2009/11/18/blogging-the-right-thing-doing-the-wrong-thing/
November 29th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
That story buries Huckabee, no one comes back from that. It’s the ultimate indictment of his judgement. And it’s terribly sad and tragic.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Joel,
Can’t we have a nice, polite, intelligent conversation without the mud-throwing?
November 29th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
not throwing, just stating a political reality
November 29th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
marK, with all due respect, how was Joel’s statement in 20 mud-throwing. He is right. This makes Dukakis smell like roses.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Jonathan,
I think it is for about the same reason she quit her Governor’s job — it just wasn’t any fun anymore. She is smart enough to know that the Office of President of the United States is a real hot-seat. She is finding that she can be extremely effective (and profitable) just being a private citizen on the outside looking in. She has so much more freedom this way. She can go where she wants, do what she wants, and most importantly say what she wants. So why put herself in that bear-trap again.
No, I really think Sarah Palin is through with elected office, at least for the time being.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Well, have a good night. MarK it isn’t too late for you to join Pawlenty’s camp either.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
This may help Pawlenty.
November 29th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
No probs markK:
2012 run ‘unlikely’ for Mitt Romney
By Dave Wedge
Tuesday, October 28, 2008 – Updated 397d 13h ago
+ Recent Articles + Email + Bio Boston Herald Chief Enterprise Reporter
Wedge is the Herald’s Chief Enterprise Reporter and writes Sunday’s “Pols & Politics” column. He also covers music for “The Edge” entertainment section.
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Former Bay State Gov. Mitt Romney says it’s “unlikely” he’ll make another presidential run in four years, and remains focused on giving Sen. John McCain and other GOP candidates a push in the final days of the election.
“Gov. Romney had his shot at the White House, and he lost fair and square,” Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said. “That opportunity is unlikely to come along again. Gov. Romney is pouring all his energy into electing McCain-Palin and other Republicans, and that has been his single focus since leaving the presidential race.”
November 29th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Dan,
“I am sure that MWS wanted to extend this invitation, but it just slipped his mind in the heat of the moment of rebutting marK.”
Absolutely. Sometimes I forget…..
November 29th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Heath, Thank-you.
Yes, now that you mention it, I do remember before the election Romney denying any interest in running in 2012. As soon as the election was over, however, “unlikely” became “I’m not really thinking about it right now”.
Out of curiosity, what would you think of someone who supposedly was working hard to get his party’s nominee elected, but who talked positively about maybe running four years later?
November 29th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
I agree marK and I’m not arguing with you.
I never bought that Mitt wasn’t running for a second. Which is why this self-congratulatory thread is weird.
November 29th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
Heath,
This thread is primarily to get the news out that Huck just publicly stated that he considers it less than likely he will run in 2012 because of his TV show. That is a stronger denial than the run-of-the-mill non-denial denials I mentioned in #10.
November 29th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Joel,
I owe you an apology. I thought that link was just another “Romney put his dog on the roof of his car” sort of scandal as most of these are. This one has the potential of biting Huck hard.
November 29th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
It’s something a little morecomplicated,
than it “was no fun anymore”. It was becoming impossible not only to keep financially afloat but the state’s own
efficient operation was being harmed.
She tried with the legal defense fund, but that leaked opinion, made even that untenable. In addition, she saw there were more important issues like the cap n trade, and the health care plan, that she could not engage the debate in, without further ethics complaints.
November 29th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
It’s clear to me that both Huck and Palin will run in 2012. The mistake some people make is in assuming politicians think like normal people – but they don’t.
Huck and Palin are both in the top tier, there is no way they walk away from that. Palin has done everything but say it right out loud, and Huck is just saying what he needs to say for the moment. He does realize his money problem is a big obstacle. He also knows Romney bested him last time, and is now a much more formidable opponent. But then there’s those darn polls that inflate the ego. It’s hard to say no to that.
November 29th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
Huckabee can overcome this. He has the talent as a politician. Plus, Governors make tough decisions. You can’t find a Governor who hasn’t made a mistake like this.
November 29th, 2009 at 11:30 pm
#35:
This is a potential pr nightmare for the Governor. He will have to answer questions about this and it will let people call his judgement into question. Not to mention the T.V. ads. It would be Willie Horton all over again.
November 29th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
35. What??? Yes, we can.
All of them. No other governor pardoned 1033 criminals.
November 30th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
“Huckabee can overcome this. He has the talent as a politician”. More Smoke and Mirrors?
December 1st, 2009 at 9:48 pm
Mike Huckabee: I Take Full Responsibility
December 1st, 2009
From Mike Huckabee:
Mike Huckabee: I Take Full Responsibility
The nation was stunned by the senseless and savage cold-blooded murders of 4 young police officers in Lakewood, Washington. Whenever a police officer or soldier is killed, I feel the loss is even more profound for they are the ones who stand between our freedom and anarchy.
At the time I write these words, police are still searching for Maurice Clemmons who is believed to be the one committing these unspeakable acts. Nine years ago, that name crossed my desk. I commuted his sentence from 108 years to 47 years. Many news reports, talk show hosts, and bloggers have erroneously said that he was granted a “pardon.” Others speak of me “setting him free.” As one who now hosts a talk show and who does daily radio commentaries, I can attest to how easy commentary is compared to actually governing. I am not seeking to justify or defend my actions of nine years ago, but it’s important that I answer for my actions and give some explanation as to how and why his sentence was commuted.
I take full responsibility for my actions of nine years ago. I acted on the facts presented to me in 2000. If I could have possibly known what Clemmons would do nine years later, I obviously would have made a different decision. But if the same file was presented to me today, I would have likely made the same decision.
Each state is different, but in Arkansas, a governor doesn’t initiate a parole—the Post Prison Transfer Board does after it conducts a thorough review of an inmate’s file and request. The board then makes a recommendation to the governor, who decides to grant or deny.
If the decision is made to grant any form of clemency (the broad term for a commutation or a full pardon), the governor gives notice of intent and the file is sent to the prosecutor, judge, law enforcement officials, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State as well as to the news media. A period of 30 days is then started for there to be public input as well as response from the above named officials. At the end of the public response period, the final decision is rendered.
Between 1,000 and 1,200 requests for some form of clemency came to my desk each and every one of the 10 ½ years I was governor. Ninety-two percent of the time, I denied the requests. When I did grant them, it was usually based on the recommendation of at least five of the members of the PPTB, with consideration given to the input from public officials.
Maurice Clemmons was 16 years old when he was charged with burglary and robbery. He was sentenced to a total of 108 years based on the way in which the sentences were stacked. For the crimes he committed and the age at which he committed the crimes, it was dramatically outside the norm for sentencing. The PPTB recommended in 2000 by a 5-0 vote for his sentence to be commuted.
He had served 11 years of his sentence. A pardon would have set him free and cleared his record. A commutation to “time served” would have set him free and released him from any parole reporting. As per the recommendation, I commuted his sentence to the term of 47 years, still a long sentence for the type of crime he had committed, but it would make him parole eligible. It would not parole him, as governors do not have that power in Arkansas. He would have to separately apply for parole and meet the criteria for that.
Despite news reports to the contrary, the only record of public response to the notice to commute was from the trial judge, who recommended the commendation in concert with the board. There were letters of support, but no record of letters of opposition.
Following the commutation, he met the criteria for parole and was paroled to supervision in late 2000. When he violated terms of his parole by participating in additional crimes, he was returned to prison and should have stayed there. For reasons only the prosecutor can explain, charges were not brought forth in a timely way and the prosecutor ended up dropping the charges, allowing him to leave prison and return to supervised parole.
He moved to Washington state and had intermittent criminal activity that increased in violence and frequency. He was allowed to post bail in Washington state and while on bail from there committed the unspeakable acts of murdering four valiant police officers. I can’t explain why he wasn’t prosecuted properly for the parole violations or why he was allowed to make bail in Washington state and not incarcerated earlier for crimes committed there.
I wish his file had never crossed my desk, but it did. The decision I made is one that I now wish were different, but I could only look backwards at his case, not forward. None of this is of any comfort to the families of these police officers nor should it be. Their loss is senseless. No words or deeds by anyone will bring them back to their loved ones. Our system is not perfect and neither are those responsible for administering it.
The system and those of us who are supposed to make sure it works sometimes fail. In this case, we clearly did.