16. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Sarah Palin 17
Mike Huckabee 10
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 7
Newt Gingrich 2
-
11. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking about Republican leaders today – which one person best reflects the core values of the Republican Party?
Sarah Palin 18
John McCain 13
Mike Huckabee 7
Mitt Romney 6
Newt Gingrich 4
This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone November 19-23, 2009, among a random national sample of 1,306 adults, including additional interviews with randomly-selected Republicans and Republican-leaning nonpartisans for a total GOP sub-sample of 804. Interview were conducted on both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; four points for the sample of 485 Republicans and five points for the sample of 319 GOP-leaning nonpartisans. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. Note: if no designation on trend line, row is “Lean Reps,” which includes both self-identified Republicans and nonpartisans who lean toward the Republican Party.
H/T: Tommy Boy
Update:
Among Republican women and independent women who lean Republican:
Palin 23%
Romney 8%
Huckabee 6%
McCain 6%
_____________________________________________
Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and Twitter/Kris_Lorelli
November 30th, 2009 at 11:55 am
I can hear everybody say that 83% of the people are against Mrs. Palin. Oh wait 90% are against Mr. Huckabee and 91% are against Mr. Romney.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Well Yeah except Romney hasn’t had his face plastered all over TV and Huck only gets, what, an hour a week on a cable network?
The One Who Goes Rogue should be doing much better given her universal name recognition. Giuliani was in the 20’s and 30’s long before the Iowa Caucus. 17 percent is just pitiful.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Expanded Numbers;
11. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking about Republican leaders today – which one person best reflects the core values of the Republican Party?
11/23/09
Sarah Palin 18
John McCain 13
Mike Huckabee 7
Mitt Romney 6
Newt Gingrich 4
Rush Limbaugh 2
Bobby Jindal 1
Colin Powell 1
George Bush 1
George W. Bush 1
John Boehner 1
Kay Bailey Hutchison 1
Lindsey Graham 1
Mike Pence 1
Mitch McConnell 1
Ron Paul 1
Ronald Reagan 1
Rudy Giuliani 1
Tim Pawlenty 1
Charles Grassley *
Glenn Beck *
Haley Barbour *
Jeb Bush *
Jim DeMint *
John Thune *
Michael Steele *
There is no leader 8
Other 9
No opinion 20
—
16. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?
11/23/09
Sarah Palin 17
Mike Huckabee 10
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 7
Newt Gingrich 2
Bobby Jindal 1
Ron Paul 1
Rudy Giuliani 1
Tim Pawlenty 1
Charlie Crist *
Haley Barbour *
Jeb Bush *
Other 8
None/Nobody 12
Would not vote 2
No opinion 28
November 30th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
John McCain at 13% and you give any credence to this pol, wow that is funny.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Question: All I see is ‘leaned Republican’. What about all Republicans? This doesn’t tell me enough information.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
4 – why would you be surprised? He has a massive following and was just our nominee.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
5 – includes both.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Maybe Mitt’s new make-no-waves, lay-low, snake-in-the-grass campaign methodology will work for him this time. It’s just too early to say.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Democrats were at 15% or so for Kerry 2008 in 2005.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/11/30/GR2009113000509.html?hpid=topnews
Among Republican women and independent women who lean Republican:
Palin 23%
Romney 8%
Huckabee 6%
McCain 6%
November 30th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
9,
Sure. But Kerry was always a “default”. Kerry didn’t have anywhere near the 24/7/365 coverage in liberal circles that Palin currently enjoys in the conservative realm.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Ok nevermind – you were comparing Kerry’s support after his loss to McCain’s. I misread.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Only 9% for Romney? With all his money and exposure? The man’s done, folks.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Like I’ve said before…polls cannot be taken too seriously this far out. Sure they are an indicator as to how people feel today but it is still way too early to tell or mean much…but I am still pretty happy about it!
November 30th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
It appears that “None/Nobody/No Opinion” is trouncing the field with 40% of the vote. I can’t wait to see None’s acceptance speech. None is a very smooth talker.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
None/Nobody/No Opinion/Would Not Vote/Other collectively has 50% of the GOP primary vote!
The nominee is going to be someone that’s not on that list. Just wait.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
16 – If you suggest Rubio, I am going to scream!
November 30th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
#16:
Sounds to me like the GOP needs a quite, competent Governor from a Midwestern state who knows how to balance budgets, keep his campaign promises and won re-election even though Obama was on the ballot and carried that state.
Now, who could that be??
November 30th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Anyone know why this poll had so many more undecideds than others? Did the name have to be volunteered, or did other polls push harder for an answer?
Anyway, 50% not naming someone- given the Big 3 celebrities- is telling.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Jonathan,
Hmmmmmm…….
I can think of two.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
I’ve been seeing a lot of Mitch Daniels recently, and I like him a lot. He has a real no-nonsense Midwestern style — one that I find very refreshing. I would love to see him Run.
In many ways, he’s the anti-Romney — principled, consistent, down-to-earth, and not the least bit slick.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Sarah Palin 17
Mike Huckabee 10
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 7
Newt Gingrich 2
Mitt THIRD again. LOL
November 30th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
November 30th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
MWS,
I can think of one reason why there are more undecideds: 40% of this poll is comprised of GOP-leaning indies.
In no GOP primary or caucus in 2008 was the composition of the GOP electorate 40% indy (not even in New Hampshire).
November 30th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
This poll’s results sure are different from all the other polls in recent weeks. Any poll that allows you to choose from 30+ different people is crazy.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
#22. Think about what you just said.
Mike is on TV practically everyday.
Palin just released her book and is in the news everyday.
Romney is keeping a very low profile.
And to think Romney is 1 point from Huckabee with that being said has to be pretty nice. Wait until they are all in the spotlight.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
#19, #25: The poll was open-ended. No list of names.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
So it looks like Huckabee commutes the sentence and allows for parole. He get’s paroled, but is arrested again. At that point, IMO, Huckabee’s responsibility is (to a great deal, but not completely) over. Once he was arrested again, his previous sentence is irrelevant. Prosecutors should have put him back in prison for life for parole violation… the fact that they didn’t leaves much of the responsibility on their door step.
I’ll give a hypothetical example: If Criminal X commits a crime, Governor B lets him out. After a while, Criminal X commits another crime and goes back to jail. In 10 years, Criminal X is paroled, and commits another crime. Is Governor B still responsible? Perhaps he’s responsible for the crime Criminal X committed that put him back into jail, but not the subsequent crime… the timeline of responsibility doesn’t fit.
Now, I know this will upset folks like Keith Olbermann and those on the left who like to blame any and everything on the right… and I know there are a lot of folks on the right who don’t like Huckabee and will try to blame him for this as well… but I’m not sure you can really pin this on his actions. He shouldn’t have allowed the parole board to hear this guys case, for sure… but this crime was not a direct result of him getting paroled. It was the result of later crimes, and their failure to be punished appropriately.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
You know, I really liked Sarah Palin before John McCain picked her to be his running mate. I remember seeing footage from the Alaska governor’s debate and thinking she had great political instincts, knew how to connect with people, and knew the issues of her state very well.
Then….she went on the national stage, and proceeded to flop. I thought that maybe with some more national exposure, she’d settle down, not seem so nervous in interviews, and learn how to better communicate issues of national importance. It seems I was wrong. She is still reciting simple platitudes to complex questions, sometimes missing the point entirely (e.g. the Israeli settlement question). I really have no idea what is going on with her answers.
Has she fallen for the cult of personality that surrounds her, believing that she can just continue to give bumper-sticker slogans as answers? I really have no idea, but as someone who once ardently supported her, I’m coming to the same conclusion as Alex: her heart is in the right place, but she really has no idea what she is talking about. It’s really a shame, because she seemed to know Alaskan politics very well, and she made some positive contributions to her state.
In the end, I no longer understand all her support. Her continued fumbled answers on matters of policy should have illustrated her inability (thus far) to grasp these issues. As for me, I’m still keeping my fingers crossed for Daniels, Pawlenty, and yes, even Petraeus to enter the 2012 ring. As for the 2008 contenders, the only ones I can get behind are Romney and Giuliani.
I’m not one to play identity politics, but if we’re looking for smart women in the GOP, how about looking into Nikki Haley:
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/indian-origin-woman-in-race-for-south-caroli/480270/
Or how about Carly Fiorina or Meg Whitman? But please, let’s get beyond Sarah. I think she’s more interested in selling books, anyway.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
We really won’t know the unvarnished, predictive, true truth until someone releases the numbers from the Rombot subsample.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Wow you guys are deperate even posting this silly little poll!
November 30th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
There is no way that Mitt catches Huck at 10!!!
November 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
This poll is BS
November 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
“Wow you guys are deperate even posting this silly little poll!” Haha, yeah, it is silly because Mr. Romney is not winning.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I’m third!
November 30th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Yesterday, I suggested Mitt was a rich kid and could afford good schools while Palin couldn’t which in part explained her college multi school record. The Rombots replied that Mitt went to BYU an inexpensive school. Wikipedia says Mitt attended the Cranbrook School in Michigan for high school, then started at Stanford before ultimately attending BYU. Interesting that the Rombots forgot to mention these facts. Seems that Willard Mitt Romney is named after J. Willard Marriott, his father’s best friend. I don’t mind that Mitt is rich but climbing the ladder of success is easier when Dad owns the ladder.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
“then started at Stanford before ultimately attending BYU.” Shhhh, don’t confuse them with facts Grant, only Princess Sarah changes schools (or so we are told.)
November 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
this was an open ended poll.
Highlight of the poll should be the gender gap.
Palin has a big lead with republican women.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
AKReport–I like the fact that Sarah does well with Republican women, my concern is that she does worse with women than with men in general. I think alot of women are jealous of other women’s political success.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
I’m the smartest one in the room…
Tarp, RomneyCare, and my changing of stances on the issues of the day prove it. I’m intelligent, handsome and flexible.
Why am I third?
November 30th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Oh I forgot- my smile, too.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
No, Grant. Sarah polled well with women when she was first selected by McCain. She’s polled low after she became an embarrassment to women.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Of course, I should add that the economic status of women is generally lower than men’s, which explains in part the gender gap.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Sarah, as well as any Republican, are an embarrassment to some women.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
McCain and Palin represent pretty well the two conflicting mindsets in the party nowadays even though neither are hostile towards the other. It’s not surprising they’d be first and second on who represents the party best. Huckabee and Romney are a bit more ambiguous on that matter.
I’d gather that plenty of people myself included would pick McCain as the man closest to them like the poll found, even if they have no illusions of voting for him in 2012. He’s always been a Presidential-class character. I dare the folks jumping on Hayworth to try tossing McCain out of the Senate.
As for Palin, well, that’s identity politics at its best (and worst). I liked the idea of her as VP because she sounded like an Alaskan female version of McCain, a definite asset on the ticket. Unfortunately that’s not what happened in the end.
The problem with Palin’s supporters isn’t the problems they are worried about, which are the same ones we all are. It’s the way they propose to solve them. Because it’s picking an unnecessary fight they in the end can’t win. They want to be the 21st Century version of William Jennings Bryan, the Democrat populist who fought for the “common man” against the powerful interests of his day that were according to him exploiting the American people. Problem is he never, ever won. “Big Stick” TR did, as did Wilson the internationalist, and Coolidge, the author of “the business of America, is business” did as well. By looking inwardly, fearing change, and seeking to preserve the purity, racial or otherwise of America, of conservatism, and of society, *you lose your ability to influence its progress for good*. And we all pay a price for that. That’s my real beef with Palin and the purist conservatives of today. Change is inevitable, but you can either be crushed by it, or help bend it to good.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
MPC–a good argument, but do you really think Palin is more “pure conservative” than Romney or Huckabee or most of the other candidates. My guess is that Palin is not noticeably more conservative than the others. My guess is that Obama will get the bulk of William Jennings Bryan voters.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
No, she’s not. Certainly wasn’t that way in Alaska. But amid all the media hounding, folksy demeanor, “real America” etc I’d say she’s earned her stripes as of late. She probably won’t go so low as to follow the road of anti-immigrant sentiment and rail on free trade and whatnot, but she certainly has become the leader of the people that think that way.
She’s become less a “gutsy Republican leader” and more a “persecuted conservative”, so that’s where she loses me.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
MPC,
There’s bad news in the poll for supporters of comprehensive immigration reform. Even the 18-34 Republican and Republican-leaning indies overwhelminly believe the party talks too little about immgiration. Since Republicans and republican-leaning indies account for 62% of all adults according to this poll, it appears that the country is with the illegal immigration hardliners. I’m not saying that’s right but that’s what the data suggests.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2009/11/a_deeper_look_at_the_gop_gener.html?hpid=topnews
Illegal immigration
Too Too Right
much little amount
All 9 61 29
18-34 14 55 31
35-64 8 61 30
65+ 6 67 25
November 30th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Palin has rock star status among many Republicans–they feel she’s one of them based on how she talks and her approach to issues mirrors how they’d approach things. I’m sure there’s more, but I think this is a big part of it. She’s probably at the upper end of the range of intelligence of her supporters and so she’s probably seen as perfectly capable of doing the job.
I think the challenges the office is currently facing requires more than what she currently has to offer. My concern is that she’d be overwhelmed at the sheer enormity of the tasks she’d be facing. Even with the benefit of good advisers, she’d still have to call the shots, lead, and inspire more than 17 or 18% of Republican voters who are easily inspired by her. I just don’t see her having the capacity for the job–and that’s not a knock on her. She’s clearly a very capable person in many ways. There are very few who could succeed as POTUS in today’s environment–current inhabitant of the WH is finding this out very quickly.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Tommy,
“Even the 18-34 Republican and Republican-leaning indies overwhelminly believe the party talks too little about immgiration. ”
But does that necessarily mean they favor kicking or starving illegals out?
Perhaps it means they want discussion beyond either blanket amnesty on one end, and simply putting up a fence and rounding them up on the other.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
MWS,
Good point. However, it suggests that GOP and GOP-leaning indies, even the young, are further to the right on this issue than McCain/Graham/Bush.
November 30th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
36. Grant,
None of that changes anything. The fact remains that Romney went to BYU – where the tuition was inexpensive, and became valedictorian through hos own efforts. Then on to Harvard where he earned simultaneous business and law degrees – with honors.
None of that had anything to do with his father – or George Romney “owning the ladder of success”.
You need to do your homework.
November 30th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
A somewhat perplexing poll. I’d agree that it doesn’t indicate Palin has widespread support, but she certainly is well in front of everyone else.
Given this includes Leaners and is a large sample, it seems to me it is clear message to Romney, Huck, Newt, that they have very little chance of winning a nomination. Their support at this stage should be high, as high as Palin’s, simply because they were contenders last time and have high name recognition.
November 30th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
[...] the rest here: race42008.com » Blog Archive » Poll Watch:Washington Post 2012 GOP … By admin | category: sample budgets | tags: analyst, application, ballot, campaign, [...]
December 1st, 2009 at 3:01 am
55% of GOPers don’t have a dog in this fight.
December 1st, 2009 at 11:04 pm
Palin defends private plane use
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on Tuesday attacked media outlets that have reported on her traveling on private jet rather than on the bus that drives to each stop on her continuing book tour.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4C9817AA-18FE-70B2-A8FDC4299BC385F0