There are 33 Senate elections in 2008. The current standing is; 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (lean left).

What will the composition of the Senate look like in January, 2009?

Which of the incumbents are at risk?

If Obama wins the Presidency, what will happen to Joe Lieberman?

Will there be any surprises in the 2008 Senate elections, and what are the races to watch?

Give us your predictions on the balance of power and on the individual contests.

If you live in a state with a Senatorial election, please let us know.

This is hands-down the most important piece written about the race today:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain’s improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.-(emphasis mine)

Image Source: Gallup

Building congressional majorities are near and dear to my heart as I spent the entire 2006 cycle blogging the Minnesota U.S. Senate race.

So it is with great excitement — coupled with a healthy dose of skepticism — that I note a Gallup poll showing Republicans pulling ahead on the generic ballot:

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for Republican Party candidates to the House of Representatives increased dramatically this month in the United States, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for the GOP contender in their congressional district, up eight points since August.

Democratic Party contenders are second with 45 per cent, down six points in a month. Six per cent of respondents would vote for other candidates or are undecided.

A word of caution:  Democrats routinely would lead the generic ballot question even while voters in individual districts sent their individual Republican congressperson back to Washington.  In other words, this is not the most accurate barometer of the composition of the next Congress.

That said, it is a marked turn in fortunes for a party that has been buffeted for the last 36 months.

Texas 29, a seat held by incumbent Gene Green (D) is ripe for the picking. Gene did not have a Republican contender for the past 4 elections. It sits in a heavily populated district that was gerrymandered by the Architect (Tom Delay) to make the other districts more heavily Republican. This TX-29 was forgotten in the shuffle. In his attempts to stack the deck, Mr Delay wrote off TX-29 and TX-18 as too heavily democratic to work with.

Well times have changed. TX-29 is well positioned because of growth in the Humble area, East Houston, and North Houston in General. The boundaries and gentrification of these areas are building up a huge Republican base. (Think Ted Poe Country).

Now that Gene Green is nice an comfy in that house, lets give him a shake up.

Eric Story is running for TX-29 and has a great chance to take this seat away from the Democrats. This is from his website:

Eric Story - Republican for US Congress

Eric is a Native Texan, age 51, married for thirty-two years to wife Cheri, with two daughters and four grandchildren.  For over twenty years as a credential minister, he dedicated his efforts to Inner City and Prison Ministry.

Eric’s career path, involved heavily in the oilfield service industry, has presented him with opportunities to travel extensively throughout North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia, enriching his knowledge of America’s value at home and abroad.

He lives in Texas Congressional District 29 and has worked serving his community as a Deputy Voter Registrar, Precinct Chair and Precinct Convention Chair, three time delegate to the Republican District Convention, two time delegate to the State Republican Convention and as an Alternate Delegate to the Republican National Convention in 2004.

In addition, Eric is a member of the Patriot Guard Riders, The Christian Motorcyclist Association, U.S. Border Watch, and the Republican National Hispanic Assembly. 

A devoted family man with traditional family values.  Although Eric realizes we live in a global community, he believes in America First. 

Eric Story is a member of:

Patriot Guard Riders
Christian Motorcyclists Association
Gun Owners of America
Texas State Rifle Association
US Border Watch

Eric Story is a strong Republican Candidate for Congress.

Gamecock sees no inherent contradiction between Rush/Reagan conservatism and most of the themes and policy proposals presented in David Frum’s Comeback nor Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam’s Grand New Party, despite the hype of some columnists and the author’s themselves.

Both books, but especially Frum’s, claim to be departures from Reaganism, which they see as fashioned solely for the problems of 1970’s and ‘80’s. I disagree, and think that their bold characterizations of their proposals are mostly self aggrandizing contrarianism.

That said, except for Frum’s internal contradictions within the book concerning President Bush and the above, I found most of their economic proposals to be welcome additions to the debate fiscal conservatives should have been having over the past decade.

The most important and pleasing discoveries in either book were that Douthat rejects the premise of the liberal gospel in Thomas Franks’ What’s the Matter with Kansas? and agrees with one of my long time arguments that the GOP must be the champion of middle and lower income families.

Douthat understands that it is not in America’s interest, no matter their economic station in life, to vote for Democrats who advocate proven failed economic policies. Franks’ book operates from the liberal premise that, obviously, Democrats are for the poor and middle class but that these voters have been tricked into voting for Republicans over irrelevant social issues.

Douthat rejects the premise and also points out the economic effects of a failure to adhere to conservative values.

I reject Frum’s argument that the GOP needs to move to the left on abortion, fetal stem cell research and marriage. Rush babies, the Reagan generation and even the new globalist liberals are majority pro-life, recent polls show. Science is on the side of opposition to government funded ESCR, and 38 states have voted to outlaw same sex marriages.

Both books make some arguments that Reaganism is obsolete due to the death of the USSR and that tax rate cuts can only go so far. I could not disagree more.

Reaganism is about timeless principles of Liberty, limited government, and practical application of values to human nature that the Founders based our society upon.

Yes, the USSR is gone, but Russia isn’t. China is making a challenge and radical Islam seeks our destruction. Evil exists, always will and the USA will always be its target unless we are vanquished. Peace thru strength sound familiar?

The major issue of our day, energy, cries out for Reagan-like de-regulation.

With respect to health-care, McCain’s proposals are market based. I remember Reagan and Rush being for market based free enterprise.

Yes, we need to make a comeback, but we aren’t that far back compared to the 1980’s. We are a young movement compared to the Democrats. And, yes, we need some of the new in the Grand Old Party, but not too much. Conservatism is our game.

Taxes? The democrats want to raise taxes, so it’s not so much that we seek tax cuts as a panacea for all that ails America, but surely Reagan would oppose tax hikes, and so must we.

The GOP must try and educate the younger voters that don’t remember the disastrous liberal economic policies of the 1970’s and the Reagan supply-side policies that gave us 25 years of the greatest boom in history. We must use the energy issue to highlight our virtue.

I highly recommend both books to conservatives to aid in fashioning policies on health care, social security, regulation of industry and our lives (even up to banning Edison’s light bulb) and that as we fashion new policies we be guided by the principles of Reagan and Rush Limbaugh.

There are no contradictions.

______________________________________________________________________

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” - The Chief Justice
Legal Editor for The Minority and HinzSight Reports
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

Partially reprinted from Baboon Pirates:

Wow… That’s Convincing!

It’s All In Knowing Which Buttons To Push…

I heard a radio ad yesterday for a guy named Faulk that’s running for Congress as a Republican in the 18th Congressional District.

I don’t think he’s got a snowball’s chance in hell of winning in that heavily gerrymandered district, but I’m going to send him a few dollars based solely on his ad campaign.

See, the Texas 18th Congressional District is the stomping grounds of Queen Sheila aka Sheila Jackson Lee aka the Mouth of the South. She has inflicted herself with her imperial attitude and radical leftist agenda on the 18th District for years, and her trademark political maneuver is that she never fails to insert herself into the scene whenever a TV camera is rolling. You’ve probably seen her race down the aisle to be the first in line to greet Bush whenever he addresses Congress.

Indeed, it’s said that the most dangerous place to be in America is in between Queen Sheila and the TV camera. No telling how many people have been steamrolled over the years for making that mistake.

Faulk’s ad asks the simple question about donating to his campaign.

“How much is it worth to you to never see Sheila Jackson Lee on TV again?”

Man, I nearly burned a hole in my checkbook with the speed I wrote that donation check…

John Faulk is a personal friend of mine. He is very Libertarian-leaning republican, which in my book is not a bad thing.

His response to this post is as follows:

Hey Cap, thanks for the kind words. I have been told for more than a year I have a snowballs chance is hell to defeat Sheila Jackson Lee. Well it depends on what a “Snowball” IS and where Hell is!! The TX 18 has not been gerrymanders as much as it has been gentrified. Take a look at the 2006 American Community Survey and see for your self. Some of my African-American supporters are calling me “Spoon” since I am keeping things stirred up. You know Sheila is a Super Delegate (her votes count more than the lowly normal voters) for Hillary. 67% of the Dems in TX 18 Voted for Obama.

Thanks again for your comments; I am look for the check and I have already seen a increase in traffic on my web site!!!!

John Faulk
A Conservative/Libertarian Republican

Lets make sure we unite behind our Republican candidates at all levels of government.

Dole, Burr and GOP should be Nehemiah for lower income families

By Mike DeVine, Legal Editor for The Minority Report and The HinzSight Report

In 445 B.C. the Persian King Artaxerxes sent Nehemiah, an Israelite who was a trusted official, to help rebuild the walls of Jerusalem.

Mel Watt (D-NC) joined most of his fellow Democrats (and not too few Republicans) last month is passing a law arbitrarily bailing out over 300,000 sub-prime loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while, inexplicably ending a successful conservative program allowing charitable organizations to provide down payment assistance to lower income first time homebuyers for regular FHA loans.

FHA loans are not sub prime loans to credit risky borrowers like a high percentage of the bailed out loans. Moreover, 501c3 organizations like Nehemiah provide an extra level of scrutiny for loans they provide DPA assistance for and coach and assist the first time home borrowers from loan application thru sale and throughout the life of the loan.

The “moral hazard” of the risky loans does not apply to FHA loans, so it remains a puzzle why Congress ended the DPA programs. This is especially so given the credit crunch and housing depression amidst record overall and minority homeownership. If the housing slump is too end, homes must be sold to first time homebuyers, who are, disproportionately minority single women with children. The biggest customers of Nehemiah and other such charitable orgs providing DPA is just that demographic and there default rate is in line with overall FHA loans.

Gamecock has recently cited the war the Democratic Party has been waging against lower income families in their preference for high gas prices and fetishes for snail darters and the Gore Church of Manmade Global Warming hoax while their constituents, post gas station visits, choose between the store brand peas and Lesuer. Especially those of Mel Watt that live a life dependant on reasonably priced gas off I-85.

Mel voted to bring the walls down on potential homebuyers in his district, the State of North Carolina and all across the United States before they were ever built.

Tar Heel State senators Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr didn’t even bother to vote on the bank bailout bill that President Bush reluctantly signed. The President could have used some assistance from our senators of a state so dependant on housing for its standard of living.

Gamecock has also long argued that conservative GOP policies are, and have been since the 1980s, better for all Americans, and especially lower income families and that Republicans need to make this point clear.

Well, Madam Dole and Mister Burr, here is your chance. We hope that Senator Dole will be more responsive to this public request than she has been to one of the more prominent realtors in Charlotte who has been unable to get an audience with the senator on the merits of DPA.

A recent story on the Charlotte Observer rated Dole one of the most “ineffective” senators in Washington. Personally, this rooster usually prefers ineffective porkbarrelists and, in any event cares not for vague rankings for headlines. After all, the 50th best state in the United States is still not in poor Mexico! And the worst vanilla ice cream is still ice cream! But I digress…

Senator Dole has shown that she can get her mind right. She was, not long ago, an acolyte of Gore’s church until she heard painful cries caused by $4/gallon gas.

Hear this cry madam: North Carolina is heavily dependant on housing growth for its well being. The DPA program was not part of the problem of the housing bubble.

Please vote to restore the DPA program and rebuild the walls.

We need Nehemiahs, not another Jericho. The GOP needs to be seen, rightly, as the party of the middle class. So be it, and don’t be quiet about it, unless you want us writing minority reports forever. This country and state is center-right and our policies are right. Let’s take back the majority for the majority.

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns

“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” - The Chief Justice

“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew

To bring you the following news. Congress now has a 9% approval rating.

Okay, back to it.

(Note, I’m not sure whether there’s a debate going on about Romney, but its usually a safe bet).

Lots of polling has been released concerning other important races. Reid Wilson over at RCP’s Politics Nation Blog has the rundowns including:

• Mitch McConnell thrashing Bruce Lundsford 50% to 39% in the KY Senate contest.

• Liberal Rep. Nancy Boyda (D) defeating both Republican challengers in her Kansas district that President Bush won by 20 points.

• Libby Dole now up comfortably on challenger Kay Hagen in the NC Senate race.

• Republican Pat McCrory within striking distance on Lt. Governor Beverly Perdue in the NC Governor’s race, but with (perhaps) ominous signs for the Republican come election day.

By sure to click the links to read Wilson’s crosstabs analysis.

In my personal life I get to interact with many different people each week. Most of these folks are either blue collar or middle class. These folks are the sort we need to win.

I’ve noticed some troubling patterns. Many of the people who voted for Bush in 2000 or 2004 have tuned out politics entirely. They’re not simply considering staying out this election. They’ve given up on politics and aren’t paying attention to it anymore.

This means barring some seismic event (terrorist attack, new war) these voters won’t even be paying attention to McCain as he tries to win them over on TV or radio. Do my anecdotal experiences reflect a wider phenomenon?

Those polls that show plummeting Republican ID suggest we may see voters dropping out. This shouldn’t be surprising since Bush’s 2004 campaign brought out 6.2 million voters who hadn’t voted before. Many of these casual voters appear to have dropped out of politics again.

It’s doubtful many of the 7.1 million new Democratic voters from 2004 have dropped out of politics. We know Democrats brought in somewhere around 2.1 million new voters in 2006. We don’t know exactly how many new Democrats have been brought in during the primaries. In states where voters register by party the trends have been frightening.

This may explain some of the shift in the voter ID. Maybe we’ve just had Republican drop out of the active electorate while Democrats continue to rush in.

On the other side I’ve noticed younger Bush voters (under 35) have turned vociferously against Republicans. Dismal seem to validate the point. According to Pew Poll released June 3rd:

39% of Americans are favorable towards Republicans
53% of Americans are unfavorable towards Republicans
57% of Americans are favorable towards Democrats
37% of Americans are unfavorable towards Democrats

Voters still hate Republicans. On almost any issue voters favor the Democrats.

That doesn’t mean voters favor the liberal position. Even where a majority of voters favor a conservative position, they tend to say they trust Democrats more than Republicans on the issue.

I suspect most of this shift has been among the voters aged 35 or younger.

While McCain does much better than a generic Republican I’m getting the impression he faces three daunting tasks:

1) Keeping millions of shaky casual Republican voters from joining the ones that have already left politics.
2) Keeping his appeal to voters who dislike Republicans and the Republican Party.
3) Convincing centrist voters Obama is not acceptable and that he (McCain) is.

Any one of these tasks would be hard. To win, McCain must do all three and have a little luck on top of it. That’s why despite the close national polls, McCain is still an underdog.

By Mike DeVine, Legal Editor for The Minority Report and The HinzSight Report
________________________________________________________________________________

The same Democratic Party that is about to nominate a radical Marxist preaching “hope and change” as its presidential nominee, attained its hoped for change in Congress by running candidates advocating conservatism in 2006.

But given the post-Clinton McGovernite take over of the world’s oldest political party, conservative Democrats wield little power especially given the GOP’s paranoid drift to the left.

America remains a center-right country whose majority is nearly as under-represented in Congress as it is in a culture dominated by elitists in academia and the media.

But don’t lose hope my fellow beleaguered Reaganites. We even have some champions in Congress, as evidenced by Sens. McConnell (R-KY) and Sessions (R-AL) smack down of the Lieberman (ID-CN)- Warner (R-VA)-[Dole (R-NC)?] De-CAP-itate the American economy and TRADE away our liberty Bill this week, lest the American people get to watch Democrats vote down common sense majority positions on C-Span II.

Meanwhile, Gamecock’s congressman urges oil drilling off N.C. coast:

Drivers upset with high gas prices could find relief off the N.C. coast, U.S. Rep. Sue Myrick said Thursday.

Using a gas station as a backdrop, the Charlotte Republican renewed calls for oil and gas drilling off the Atlantic Coast. Drilling is now prohibited under a longstanding moratorium.

“I’m as frustrated as the next person when it comes to filling up my car,” she said, overlooking pumps selling regular for $3.99. “One of the things we need to do is use more of our own resources.”

Myrick has introduced the Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act of 2008. It would give states authority to permit drilling within 100 miles of their coast, while allowing the federal government to lease sites beyond 100 miles. The moratorium is in effect until 2012.

A bill similar to Myrick’s passed the then-Republican controlled House largely along party lines in 2006. It did not make it through the Senate. She said she thinks this time will be different.

“People are paying $4 a gallon for gasoline,” she said. “They weren’t in 2006.”

Myrick aides pointed to a Gallup Poll released Wednesday that shows 57 percent of Americans favor drilling in coastal and wilderness areas currently off limits. Myrick said she’s driven in part by the fact that Cuba has leased drilling rights to China and Spain in waters 50 miles off Florida.

“That’s our oil!” Myrick said in a rising voice. “China already has our jobs. Are we going to give them our oil, too?”

The former mayor of the Queen City lays it out nicely, doesn’t she?

Too bad she isn’t in the Senate seat now held by the wife of a former senator from a state with no coastline who gets her “maverick” mug plastered on page A1 as a missionary for Al Gore’s Church of man-made global warming while a clear headed Myrick makes page B6.

Bob, we gave you a standing ovation for your curt e-mail smackdown of Scott turncoat Texan McClellan. Could you please re-tar the heels of this close relative of yours?:

Dole is climate bill’s unlikely ally

Global warming threatens U.S. security, senator says.

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to cast a historic vote today on the first comprehensive global warming bill to make its way out of a committee room.

The sweeping legislation is expected to die.

But among those supporting the measure will be Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Salisbury Republican whose voting record is among the Senate’s most conservative.

“It’s very important that we move on this because the costs of inaction are just too great,” Dole said Thursday. “The data became more and more voluminous.”

Her eureka moment, she said, came more than a year ago, after poring over the science about climate change and concluding that the Earth definitely is getting warmer.

Two colleagues on the Armed Services Committee – Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Republican John Warner of Virginia – persuaded her about the effect of climate change on national security.

This convert to the GOP after a 2000 conservative epiphany is sick and tired of voting for Republicans that have “eureka” moments surrounded by liberals in Washington, D.C.

[And you will search the whole article in vain for HOW global warming threatens our national security (not to mention the dearth of evidence that man can control the weather - vanity of vanities).]

The only Eureka moments conservatives need concern themselves with are the four years worth of same Ronald Reagan spent at the Illinois college that taught him the basics of economics that saved America in the 1980s.

Dole is opposed by her fellow Tar Heel republican Senator Richard Burr.

South of here in the more refined Carolina (see Spartanburg and Charleston), Republican conservative stalwart Jim DeMint is with Burr, but we suspect McCain’s Vice-President Lindsey Graham supported the now dead bill as did McCain (too busy campaigning to vote).

Graham was also a senator that spoke to racist La Raza group last year and called opponents of the amnesty bill, racists.

Thank God the Palmetto State’s governor was and is no more intimidated by Graham (nor of the prospect of McCain speaking to “The Race” in July) than Rush Limbaugh and We the People were last summer when we smacked that abominable bill last summer.

SC’s Sanford signs illegal immigration bill

COLUMBIA, S.C. - Gov. Mark Sanford signed legislation Wednesday that threatens to temporarily shut down businesses and fine them up to $1,000 per worker if they employ illegal immigrants.

Sanford, surrounded by about 20 legislators, said the measure reasserts the rule of law in South Carolina - cracking down on the “wink-and-nod” employment of illegal immigrants. He and legislators said they hope the ideas spread and force Congress to act.

“The message is loud and clear: Stop the silent invasion of this state,” said Senate President Pro Tem Glenn McConnell, R-Charleston.

Legislators boasted the measure is the most strict and effective anti-illegal-immigrant bill in the country. Lawmakers made the law increasingly tougher as debate progressed, with constituents becoming more frustrated by the federal government’s inaction on the issue.

“It’s certainly one of the toughest, if not the toughest,” said Larry Frankel, state legislative counsel in the American Civil Liberty Union’s Washington office.

Rep. Thad Viers, R-Myrtle Beach, predicted the law will lower the state’s unemployment rate, at 5.9 percent in April, because immigrants will “self-deport” and make more jobs available.

This comes on the heels of a historic conservative legislative session on abortion law, religious free speech, criminal law and free market health insurance reform in South Carolina.

Hope and change the conservative American majority can believe in lies in following the federalist lessons being espoused south of the Old Dominion and north of the Peach State.

Never mistake democratic primary voters for America. Obama won the Carolinas’ primaries. Some liberal always wins democratic contests down here. (see Bill Clinton re Jesse Jackson).

But come November, the actual election occurs. There has been a lot of wild talk that N.C. or even S.C. could be in play this November. I’m not going to dignify the suggestion re the home of the birthplace of Old Hickory, but as to Polk’s state:

Democrats’ percentage of the presidential vote in North Carolina from 1980-2004 has been: 47, 38, 42, 42, 44, 43, and 44, respectively.

I don’t see a 50, do you? I don’t even see a 48.

Obama’s only hope? He smokes.

McCain will smoke him, and if he would follow Myrick and Sanford’s lead, he’ll snuff him out by a landslide.

[UPDATE RE NO MAJOR DRILLING RELATED OIL SPILLS SINCE 1969]

Drill, Coast Haste

Uncle Sam bans states from drilling in the Atlantic, Pacific and eastern Gulf mainly to protect the environment. Some 85% of the U.S. coastline is off-limits to energy production — including huge reserves off Florida’s coast, which China is exploiting in Cuban waters.

To change that, a lawmaker is offering a novel idea. Rep. Sue Myrick of the House Energy and Commerce panel wants to let coastal states decide whether drilling is environmentally risky. She has introduced a bill that would give coastal states that want offshore drilling the power to opt out of the Interior Department’s offshore restrictions.

And as a powerful incentive, Myrick, R-N.C., proposes cutting them (and adjacent states) in on the federal revenues from leases. Washington now collects as much as $8 billion a year in existing Gulf royalties, a figure that would balloon as coastal regions opened for exploration.

Her Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act would give states the ability to control energy production up to 100 miles off their shores and would extend their territorial waters.

But the bill faces major hurdles. Even if Myrick can get the House panel’s Democrat chair, Rep. John Dingell, to take it up, it would face stiff opposition in the Senate. Florida Sens. Mel Martinez and Bill Nelson have blocked previous attempts to lift the ban on drilling — although Martinez, a Republican, lately has shown signs of softening.

Foes have successfully cloaked their arguments against offshore drilling in eco-apocalypse, claim it will lead to oil spills. Fearing tar-ball-pocked beaches, the tourism industry has joined the greens in lobbying against such bills.

Their fears are unfounded. And politicians concerned about America’s energy security ought to do a better job educating the public with the facts. For example:

• Less than one one-thousandth of a percent (0.001%) of the 7 billion-plus barrels of oil that Washington has allowed to be produced offshore over the past 25 years has been spilled, according to the Interior Department.

• A whopping 63% of petro pollution in North American seas comes not from offshore rigs, but from natural seepage from the sea floor. Source: National Academy of Sciences.

• There hasn’t been a major oil spill from an offshore well since 1969 even though rigs since then have been lashed by Katrina and other major hurricanes.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
The Minority Report and The HinzSight Report
Race 4 2008
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

As I and many others have postulated before, Romney’s gracious bowing out of the GOP primaries this year was a huge move in uniting the party as well as the first step in preparing for a run in 2012 should McCain lose this November. Since that time, Romney is doing exactly what he needs to build support among conservatives and the GOP party faithful — making speeches at GOP conventions and Lincoln Day dinners, headlining fundraising events for groups such as the Susan B Anthony List, filling in for Paul Harvey on his radio news show, and yes, fundraising and campaigning for John McCain.

This morning, the Romney team launched their new PAC: Free and Strong America.

The name is lifted from a line in his “Faith in America” speech:

“You left us, your children, a free and strong America. It is why we call yours the greatest generation. It is now my generation’s turn. How we respond to today’s challenges will define our generation, and it will determine what kind of America we leave our children, and theirs.”

The PAC is more or less a reassembling of the Romney campaign team, including big names such as James Bopp, Peter Flaherty, Vin Weber, Carl Forti (CEO of Freedom’s Watch), and of course, Beth Myers and Kevin Madden.

The main purpose of the PAC is to harness and funnel Romney’s fundraising capabilities for conservative candidates in the upcoming election. They’ve selected 7 House candidates to back so far - and Marc Ambinder notes, “Make no mistake: the candidates Romney’s PAC is supporting are all solid conservatives.” And, Free and Strong America is supporting John McCain for President.

Of course, the PAC also acts as a vehicle to allow Mitt to stay in the political spotlight as well: he is featured on the homepage as the chairman of the PAC and there’s a “Learn About Mitt” tab for his biography of accomplishments.

Hi, I’m the econ grad stud from the comments. I’ve been invited to blog so here goes:

Democrats didn’t win all the seats they could in 2006. In 2008 we’re going to be defending 8 Senate seats while the Democrats defend only one. In the House we’ve lost reliably Republican seats and the results from Illinois suggest the losses will continue. Our Republican brand is shattered. Even our popular maverick Presidential candidate has only even odds of being elected.

Ok, now on with the good news.

First the Democrats appear ready to throw away the Presidency by weakening each candidate in the primary. An all Democrat government becomes less likely every day that Hillary and Obama battle.

Secondly the Democrats aren’t winning on merits. Swing voters aren’t voting for Democrat’s agenda. Swing voters are voting for Democrats because they’re mad at Republicans. As swing voters begin to realize Democrats are in power they will begin to expect them to govern and not run a do-nothing Congress.

Third our structural advantages limit our loses. In 2000 George Bush lost the popular vote by half a million votes but he won 52.4% of the Congressional Districts. If we won 2% more of the vote in 2008 than 2006 we’d gain 13 seats in the House.

Fourth, if McCain has coattails he’s likely to help a lot of vulnerable Republicans in swing districts. McCain is a unique candidate in his ability to turn voters back on to a new Republican brand.

I’m guardedly optimistic about 2008. We may yet grab victory from the jaws of defeat.

But not Mitt…

Utahans may get the chance to vote for a Romney this November after all - Josh Romney, the son of former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, says he’s considering a run for Congress.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that Mitt Romney may end up on the ballot as a vice presidential candidate.

Josh Romney told the Deseret Morning News that after a year of campaigning across country for his father, he’s been approached to run as a Republican against 2nd Congressional District Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah.

“I haven’t ruled it out,” Josh Romney, 32, of Millcreek, said of becoming a candidate himself. “I’m pretty young, but I’ve had good experience on the campaign trail.” Plus, he said, he likely could count on his father’s supporters here in Utah.

“Wait, running for Congress takes time and money!?! NOW YOU TELL ME??”

That’s a quick synopsis of why Republican Nominee Tim Baldermann, who is/was running to fill the vacated seat in Illinois’s 11th Congressional District- which was bound to be one of the most hottest congressional races this year, has decided to drop out.

Baldermann, 41, said that until the primary was finished, he was unaware of how time consuming his campaign would be.

He said when he ran for mayor he had no trouble fulfilling his duties as police chief, despite critics who said it could not be done. But campaigning in a large congressional district and raising the money to run a legitimate campaign would require all of his time and attention over the next nine months.

“That wouldn’t be fair to the people of Chicago Ridge, New Lenox, or my wife and children,” Baldermann said. Link

Why does this remind me of how republicans lost the Senate race in 2004, which in turn gave us a certain senator who has garnered little media attentions since?

I am still a little shocked that someone could run and win the Republican nomination for a congressional seat and not understand it would take a lot of personal investment- as if it would be his Saturday morning hobby. But the fact of the matter is…we’re screwed.

This is welcome good news:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 44% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 40% would opt for the Republican (see crosstabs). That’s the first time the Republicans have reached the 40% level of support in more than a year. It’s also the second consecutive month that the Democrat’s advantage has been in single digits. A month ago, Democrats enjoyed a five-point lead. Two months ago, they had a ten-point edge over the GOP.

Democrats lead by thirteen among women while Republicans lead by six among men.

Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided between the parties-32% say they’ll vote for a Republican, 32% for a Democrat, 13% for a third-party option, and 23% remain undecided. A month ago, Democrats had a six-point lead among unaffiliated voters. Two months ago, they enjoyed a twenty-point advantage.

Just 15% of Americans currently give Congress good or excellent marks for their legislative efforts. Bleak as those numbers are, they reflect a two-point gain compared to last month (see monthly results since Election 2006).

While the GOP has closed the gap on the Generic Congressional Ballot in recent months, the number of people who consider themselves to be Democrats has just reached the highest level in three years.