When this is all said and done, the history of the 2008 race will be one of stunning rises and catastrophic falls. But one story stands out as the most bizarre of the campaign. What happened to Fred Thompson? It seems like ancient history now, but he was supposed to be The Guy. The White Knight riding into town to sweep aside the apostasies of The Mayor, the Maverick and the Mormon and claim the nomination of the Republican Party. His name had been touted seriously as a candidate since March. Back in June, I wrote an extensive post that analyzed his effect on McCain, Rudy and Romney. I concluded that he had hurt Romney the most because he was filing a vacuum that Romney was supposed to take. He had pundits and bloggers waiting in anticipation for the moment when he would officially enter the race. Any day now, we were assured by his campaign. By the beginning of next month at the latest. And then, nothing. He had missed his moment. By the time he finally entered the race, he fizzled incredibly quickly. Instead of being proactive and working to win back disillusioned supporters, he just sort of disappeared. Nowadays, he’s almost a non-entity on the campaign trail. Even Ron Paul gets more press coverage than Thompson.

So, color me surprised when I saw that Thompson was claiming that party time is over and that it’s time to get down to business. He declared that he was “all in” to finish strong in Iowa and South Carolina. Of course, he declares that after the rise of Huckabee cut Thompson’s already lagging support base in half, if not more. Even if Thompson manages a 3rd place finish in Iowa, he will still lose the state by 20 or more points. That’s not going to earn him any momentum anywhere. Not to mention, his shocking 1% showing in the latest New Hampshire poll and his inability to compete with Huckabee, Romney, McCain and Rudy in Michigan and Nevada. By the time South Carolina rolls around, will he have any support left?

How does Thompson plan to fix this problem? He plans to unveil the Nonstop Express and take Iowa by storm:

The campaign plans to launch a bus tour of Iowa starting on Dec.17 and will take a few days off for the Christmas holiday before returning to Iowa for another bus trip, which will continue until the beginning of the new year.

Doesn’t that just symbolize his entire campaign?

It is ironic that Mitt Romney’s inability to fill the Southern conservative messiah role that was meant for George Allen and Bill Frist, gave rise to Fred Thompson. But due to his inabilities to live up to the role, he opened the way for Mike Huckabee and now Huckabee’s campaign might single handily destroy Romney’s and Thompson’s.

The issue of adult and embryonic stem-cell research is an issue that is very important to many pro-lifers like myself. It surely is a controversial issue, and the passage of federally-funded embryonic stem-cell research led to President Bush’s first veto of his presidency. Once again, the Senate is debating the issue, under two bills. The first bill, S 5, named the “Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2007,” is much like the bill Pres. Bush vetoed, except that it takes some language from a previous Santorum bill in order to try and make it veto proof. The second bill, S. 30, the HOPE Act, would encourage federal funding of ethical research without harming human embryos.

The issue of federally-funded embryonic stem-cell research has also become a “litmus test” for pro-lifers to judge a politican’s commitment towards the pro-life movement. For instance, former Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist was slammed by the pro-life community for supporting it, while Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. was praised yesterday by the Family Research Council for once again committing his support against it.

This issue is very important to pro-lifers in regards to 2008. Legislation that would federally fund embryonic stem-cell research passed under a Republican majority in both houses, and will likely pass again under a Democratic majority. Luckily, President Bush had the courage to use his first veto against the legislation, and will likely veto it again. However, will we be so lucky with our next president?

So far, the candidates opposed to federally-funded embryonic stem-cell research are: Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, Romney, and Tancredo.

Supporting federally-funded embryonic stem-cell research are: McCain and Giuliani.

I am not sure where Fred Thompson or Jim Gilmore stand on this issue.

Brownback has been a leading supporter of adult stem-cell research and a leading opponent of embryonic stem-cell research. Here is what he posted today at the Hill’s Congressional blog titled: “Where do we draw the line on stem cells?”

I look forward to highlighting the fact that adult stem cell research, which does not destroy young human lives, has yielded real treatments for patients in need. I welcome the opportunity for a full and open debate which raises a basic question: should we use taxpayer dollars to fund research that many people, including myself, consider unethical because it destroys young human lives? Or should we focus federal research funding on ethical alternatives that carry more clinical promise?

I agree with Brownback on this issue. The main thing I wonder is if the proponents of embryonic stem-cell research claim that it is so promising, then why is it not privately funded? Why aren’t research companies spending their own dollars on this research? Wouldn’t you love to be the first company to come up with the cure to all the diseases proponets claim this research would benefit?

Brownback also wrote an op-ed which USA Today ran yesterday:

Reject embryo bill
Washington should limit research funding to adult stem cells only.

By Sam Brownback

Last year I met a courageous young woman, Jacki Rabon of Illinois, who was paralyzed in a car accident at age 16. Today, thanks to an ethical adult stem cell treatment that she received in Portugal, Jacki is regaining feeling in her legs and can walk with the aid of braces and a walker.

This week, the Senate will debate a bill that would provide taxpayer funding for a different type of stem cell research from the type that is helping Jacki and scores of other patients. The Senate will vote on whether to fund embryonic stem cell research, which requires the destruction of human embryos. We all started as an embryo, and biologically, the human embryo is no less human than you or I.

Two issues are at stake:

First, should we treat the young human as a person or as a piece of property? Will the federal government maintain high ethical standards in research, or will we sanction the destruction of young human lives to further speculative research that might or might not eventually help patients?

Second, should we fund the research that holds the most promise to bring treatments to patients soonest, or should we fund speculative and unethical research, the benefits of which are unclear and may never come?

For the sake of the patients, we should fund adult stem cell research to the exclusion of unethical embryonic stem cell research. Jacki should not have to travel to Portugal, at great personal expense, for a treatment with her own adult stem cells. And she is not the only patient who has had no choice but to travel around the world for an adult stem cell treatment.

We know of 72 peer-reviewed adult stem cell treatments and applications for a wide range of diseases and injuries. Yet embryonic stem cell research has not yielded any treatments or applications to date.

Patients should have the peace of mind that their treatment did not come at the expense of another’s destruction, and they should not have to travel around the world to seek help. I urge my Senate colleagues to reject the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act and taxpayer funding for human embryonic stem cell research.

Sam Brownback is a Republican senator from Kansas and a candidate for president.

My main reasons for posting this is to inform readers on where the 2008 candidates stand on this issue, and also to remind readers why pro-lifers love Brownback so much — not only does he vote our way, but he is also our leader on issues like this. In recent years, most pro-life legislation has been very much supported by the general public — such as banning partial-birth abortions and parental notification laws. Embryonic stem-cell research, however, is much more controversial mostly because people don’t understand the issue, and is generally supported by the general public. This is when the pro-life movement finds out who its real leaders are — like Sam Brownback — and who the sell-outs are — like former majority leader Bill Frist.

Looks like Senator Bill Frist is taking the route I outlined back in June:

Former Majority Leader Sen. Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) is seriously considering a gubernatorial run in Tennessee in 2010, possibly setting up a White House bid further down the road.

Sources in Washington and Tennessee say Frist, who will turn 55 next month, is leaning heavily toward a run for the governor’s office, where he could gain executive experience that might position him to try for the presidency in either 2012 or 2016.

#quot;It’s a done deal,#quot; said a source with knowledge of Frist’s plans.

Frist was considering a 2008 presidential run until late last year, when he announced he would not run, opening the door for a bid at the Volunteer State’s governor’s office.

Waiting three to eight years before making a gubernatorial or presidential bid would provide Frist needed distance from his unenviable tenure as Senate majority leader, a period that culminated in the Democrats’ takeover of Congress last November.

Back in June, I wrote:

Almost as soon as the 2004 election concluded, Dr. Frist was one of the first Republicans to be touted as the party’s standard-bearer for 2008. As Senate Majority Leader, Dr. Frist was to be the point man for President Bush’s second term agenda.

However, as it is almost always the case in U.S. history, the Senate is where Presidential dreams go to die.

Dr. Frist was unable to to make progress on Social Security reform, flip-flopped on stem-cell research, failed to control his own party’s delegation in the #quot;Gang of 14? deal, and passed an immigration reform bill that is anathema to his party’s base.

Frist is set to leave the Senate when his term expires in January 2007, presumably to focus on his Presidential run.

Oh, but what could have been for Dr. Frist!

Had he chose to run for Governor of Tennessee in 2002, he would have easily defeated Phil Bredesen. He would not have had to make the hard decisions in the Senate that have mortally weakened him. No Social Security failure; no Gang of 14; no Terry Schaivo; no immigration bill disaster.

Governors, especially Southern governors, win Presidential elections in the U.S. If Dr. Frist was the sitting governor of Tennessee he would be in an ideal situation to capture the GOP nomination.

Dr. Frist- you can make that check out for consulting fees to Kavon W. Nikrad…

The survey of Washington, D.C. insiders (36 Democrat members of Congress and 73 Democrat insiders; 34 Republican members of Congress and 77 insiders) by National Journal resulted in the following rankings (and complete numbers are only available to subscribers):

Republicans???????? Most Likely To Be Nominated?????Second Most Likely To Be Nominated

1. John McCain??????????????????????73%??????????????????????????????????????????????23%

2. Mitt Romney??????????????????????18%????????????????????????????????????????????? 52%

3. Rudy Giuliani???????????????????????5%??????????????????????????????????????????????20%

4. Newt Gingrich

5. Mike Huckabee

6. George Pataki

7. Chuck Hagel

8. Condi Rice

9. Sam Brownback

10. Bill Frist

Democrats

1. Hillary Clinton?????????????????

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Al Gore

5. Evan Bayh

6. Tom Vilsack

7. Bill Richardson

8. Joe Biden

9. Wesley Clark

10. Chris Dodd

Of course members of Congress and insiders are going to be strongly influenced by which candidates have put together organizations and lobbied them for support. So it is not surprising that those candidates who are furthest along in hiring and setting up meetings with congressional members are doing the best in these predictive rankings.

But it is interesting to also note that clearly Washington, D.C. insiders do not believe the current polling numbers for Mayor Rudy Giuliani?can be sustained in the heat of a primary campaign. The good news for Mayor Giuliani is how often Washington, D.C. insiders get it wrong.

For all candidates on both sides of the aisle, however, Washington, D.C. insider expectations are going to impact their ability to raise funds among traditional donor types (though among Internet givers it is an entirely different game, based largely on how much buzz the candidate is generating), though?Mayor Giuliani and Speaker Gingrich have the star power to both raise big money and run?non-traditional, outsider campaigns at the same time (which may be very effective in the 2008 cycle).

The latest presidential survey conducted by WNBC/Marist shows Rudy Giuliani with?a very slight lead over John McCain for the 2008 Republican nomination.? Condoleezza Rice, who is still included in Marist’s poll, has been shown by other pollsters to split Rudy’s support, so we can assume, since Condi is very likely not to go back on her promise to forgoe a White House run, that much of her support will go to Giuliani, meaning Rudy’s lead over McCain is probably a bit higher than what is currently displayed:

WNBC/Marist Poll. Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 2006. N=967 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican leaners. MoE ? 5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?”
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/27 - 12/3/06	9/18-20/06	2/13-15/06	10/12-13 & 17/05	2/14-16/05
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	Rudy Giuliani	24	23	22	21	25
?	John McCain	23	15	22	19	21
?	Condoleezza Rice	15	20	22	21	14
?	Newt Gingrich	8	7	5	5	5
?	Mitt Romney	4	4	4	-	1
?	Bill Frist	3	4	2	2	3
?	Chuck Hagel	2	-	1	1	-
?	Tommy Thompson	1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Mike Huckabee	1	-	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Tom Tancredo	1	1	1	1	n/a
?	George Pataki	1	2	2	2	1
?	Sam Brownback	-	1	-	2	n/a
?	Duncan Hunter	-	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Unsure	17	21	17	17	20
?	George Allen	n/a	2	2	4	-
?	Jeb Bush	n/a	n/a	n/a	5	7
?	Rick Santorum	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1
?	Bill Owens	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	2

WNBC/Marist’s results have always been a little bit quirky, but it might just be chalked up to how early and uncertain the race is at this point.? For instance, candidates’ support seems to fluctuate violently in Marist’s polls, while the changes appear to be a bit more gradual in other polling organizations’ surveys (i.e. McCain’s support?bounces from 22% to 15% back up to 23% within a matter of a few months).? Also, candidates that seem to have little to no chance at winning the nomination seem to do quite well in Marist’s polls (i.e. Hagel has a better chance at winning the nomination than Thompson or Huckabee?? Pataki has more support than Brownback?? Don’t think so…)

WNBC/Marist’s adamant refusal to drop Condi Rice from the lineup as other polling organization’s have done likely further skews the numbers, though they had no problem dropping other candidates, like George Allen and Rick Santorum from the list as they disappeared from the radar, and as they will probably do with Bill Frist in their next poll.

And while Rudy Giuliani’s lead is rather slim in some polls, he always seems to retain it, whether the results are within the Margin of Error or not.? There are only a handful of exceptions to this: of the 20 presidential surveys conducted by a major reputable polling company so far in the year 2006, only 5 show John McCain in first place.? Of those 5 polls, 2 of the polls have McCain evenly tied with Rudy for first place, and all are within the MoE.? Despite the mainstream media talk, I don’t think there’s any other option but to assume that Rudy is truly the frontrunner here, albeit a slight one.

Gallup released their latest presidential race related survey, which asked the general public which figure they would most like to see elected President in 2008.? The poll also asked if respondents would like to see particular presidential candidates run.

Here’s what the poll says:

?	?	Would Like To See Run	Would Not Like To See Run	?Unsure	?
?	?	%	%	%	?	?
?	John McCain				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	56	40	4	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	55	43	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	John Edwards				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	45	49	6	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Hillary Rodham Clinton				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	44	55	1	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Barack Obama				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	38	48	14	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	38	60	3	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Al Gore				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	31	67	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	John Kerry				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	23	74	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	18	78	4	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	16	58	26	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	George Allen				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	13	62	25

As one can see, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani appear to be the only ones for whom a majority of Americans would like to see in the race.? Edwards and Clinton closely follow, but don’t quite make the cut.? Surprisingly, a near majority of Americans prefer not to see Obama in the race.

Unfortunately for Gingrich and Romney, who score in league with ousted Sen. Allen, there seems to be little support amongst the general populace for their candidacies.? With nearly identical name recognition levels, Romney only scores a hair better than Allen, whose career was tarnished by oddity after scandal after oddity this summer, which eventually led to his untimely removal from his post by the people of Virginia.? And further reinforcing my opinions about the incredible weakness of a Gingrich presidential candidacy, surprisingly, Newt has higher negatives than either Allen or Kerry, the highest of the whole lot in fact, with almost 4 out of 5 Americans not wanting to see him around in ‘08.? While Newt makes for a great lecturer and congressperson, my opinion that he would be a terrible presidential candidate is only becoming continually reinforced by his lackluster performance on the campaign trail and his even more lackluster poll numbers.? He will definitely be a policy bulwark, but the nomination will never be his, hope as some may.

The other half of the poll, which is pretty much meaningless, since a third of respondents refused to answer the question and since the format of an actual election only offers two major choices, is as follows:

“Thinking ahead to the election for president in 2008, who would you most like to see elected president?” Open-ended
?	?	?	?	?	?	.
?	?	?	%	?	?	?
?	Hillary Clinton		15	?	?	?
?	John McCain		11	?	?	?
?	Barack Obama		6	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani		5	?	?	?
?	“A Democrat” (non-specific)		3	?	?	?
?	John Edwards		2	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice		2	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich		2	?	?	?
?	“A Republican” (non-specific)		2	?	?	?
?	Al Gore		2	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney		1	?	?	?
?	Joe Biden		1	?	?	?
?	John Kerry		1	?	?	?
?	Bill Frist		1	?	?	?
?	Colin Powell		1	?	?	?
?	Other		7	?	?	?
?	No one		5	?	?	?
?	Unsure		33

As of now, it appears that, if the race for the Republican presidential nomination has any frontrunners at all, then they are (no more and no less than) Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.? While candidates like Mitt Romney will surely hold much sway in the campaign to come, it is far too early at this point to declare him an “upper tier” candidate.? Romney has an enormous amount of uphill work to do, probably moreso than any other serious contender.

Hugh Hewitt said on his nationally broadcast radio show yesterday that he believes the 2008 Republican presidential primary will come down to three candidates - Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain, and Governor Mitt Romney. I think Mr. Hewitt is one candidate short - Newt Gingrich will, in my opinion, be a serious GOP presidential candidate in 2008 who ranks up there will the above three in contesting for the nomination if based only on his name recognition, passion for debating public policy, and?force of personality?aside from any lack of early organizational?and fundraising prowess.

The departure of Senator Bill Frist from the Republican presidential contest may be a harbinger. Senator Frist had the ability - given his contacts, support, and fundraising network - to make some serious headway in 2008. But you have to wonder if the apparent coalescing of talent, funds, media scrutiny, and momentum behind the Big Four added to his list of reasons not to run (which would have included an arguably disappointing stint as Senate Majority Leader).

Could it be that the next potentially serious 2008 GOPer to drop out of the race will be Governor George Pataki, who has already lost staff in Iowa and?manifests only a fraction of the advantage other early organized candidates seem to be generating for their efforts?

Yes, there will be other Republican candidates in the 2008 race. But I see no reason to believe those other than Gingrich, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will have the staying power to seriously compete for the nomination. And as the Big Four continue to devour most of the political oxygen in the GOP presidential holding room, it is likely that we will see other heretofore likely entrants bow out of the picture as only those interested in making a statement and conducting a longshot candidacy dare to challenge the?top of the 2008 Republican batting order.

Just as outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist today nixes any plans to run for the White House, former Virginia Governor and RNC Chair Jim Gilmore says he is now looking seriously at an ‘08 bid. ABC News reports:

Along with considering a White House run, Gilmore said he could run for the Senate in 2008 if Sen. John Warner (R-VA), the silver-haired ex-husband of Elizabeth Taylor, decides to retire. Gilmore said that he might also seek a return to the governor’s office in 2009 when Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) is barred from seeking a consecutive term.

From Chris Cillizza:

Senate majority leader Bill Frist will not run for president in 2008, according to sources close to the politician.

Frist will put out a statement at 1 p.m. ET today confirming his decision, according to the source. His decision was first reported in Hotline’s On Call Blog . He will not immediately endorse any of the other candidates pursuing the race, the source said.

Frist’s departure frees up a number of money men who had signed on with him as well as key campaign talent, people like Alex Vogel, a longtime Frist adviser and former general counsel at the NRSC. Watch to see where these folks jump in the coming weeks for a sign of Frist’s endorsement intentions.

Update: Here is Sen. Frist’s statment, which according to AP will be his only comment on the decision:

“In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close. I do not intend to run for president in 2008.”

Thanks to R4′08 reader JayCee for the tip!

Quinnipiac University released today a survey that asked about people’s feelings toward many leading presidential candidates and other politicians.? Quinnipiac’s famous poll, called the “feeling thermometer,” gauges how warm or cold registered voters feel toward?certain figures.? Here’s what this month’s poll has to say:

?
	?MEAN RATING	Unsure/ Refused %
Evan Bayh	43.3	76
Joe Biden	47.0	52
Hillary Clinton	49.0	1
John Edwards	49.9	20
Bill Frist	41.5	53
Newt Gingrich	42.0	15
Rudy Giuliani	64.2	9
Al Gore	44.9	3
John Kerry	39.6	5
John McCain	57.7	12
Barack Obama	58.8	41
Condoleezza Rice	56.1	7
Bill Richardson	47.7	65
Mitt Romney	45.9	65

Clearly, the person in the best position according to this poll is Rudy Giuliani.? Giuliani is, not only the sole candidate to break into the 60’s, but he doesn’t just break 60, he clocks in at 64.2, almost half-way to 70.? No question about it–no other candidate creates as many warm feelings as Giuliani.? Barack Obama comes in at a distant second with 58.8, and McCain is close behind at 57.7.? Granted, people might have warm feelings about Oprah, but that doesn’t mean they’d support her for President.? However, it is inarguable that Rudy’s reservoir of good will that he’s built up ever since 9/11 gives him an enormous leg-up in this race.? Perhaps this poll will help the media begin to see that McCain’s position as frontrunner isn’t as solid as assumed–that, perhaps, McCain isn’t in fact the only frontrunner for the GOP nomination.? At this point, I don’t see anything less than a dead even tie between Rudy and McCain on the Republican side.

Not surprisingly low?are Bill?Frist, one of the most frustrating and incompetent Senate Majority Leaders Republicans have had in a long time,?and John Kerry, who has plummeted since his “botched joke” earlier this fall.? I doubt we’ll be seeing much more from him.? Kerry made the same exact mistakes as George Allen: he A). said something incredibly stupid that there was really no way to explain way, B). tried to explain it away, and C). didn’t just make a sincere apology directly to those he insulted right away, but drew it out until it became a big deal and then gave a weasly, half-assed apology.? Let this be a lesson to all future presidential candidates–learn from Kerry and Allen’s mistakes.? 2008 will be the toughest race in years, and neither party wants to nominate someone they think is immature and untrustworthy enough to throw away an entire campaign with an ill-timed?slip of the tongue.

Surprisingly low, however, are Evan Bayh, the very popular moderate-Democrat?Governor-turned-Senator from Indiana whom we would expect to have a lot of crossover appeal, and Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House who is increasingly being touted as one of the top-tier major Republican presidential candidates.? I could see Bayh’s numbers rising?dramatically as he becomes better known to those unsure independents who might break for him later on.? The only reason Gingrich is?seen as such a contender, in my opinion, is the flaws in all the other candidates.? For some, it’s becoming clear that all the lower-tier candidates have serious problems, and as many of them pick themselves off by their own stupidity, Newt (someone who, so far, has avoided saying anything really damning) seems to just float around, letting the political corpses of his failing colleagues buoy him up higher and higher.? He hasn’t really done or accomplished anything significant or been in any sort of real executive role in close to a decade now.? He’s just playing it safe enough that he’s becoming many voters’ alternative to the centrist-Giuliani/moderate-McCain on one side and the conservative political underdogs/newbies on the other side.? I have to also give credit where credit is due–Gingrich is a great speaker and organizer, and he’s able to convey thoughts and solutions in a way that few politicians have ever been able to.? However, there is a persistently negative aura that surrounds him amongst the general populace, and while Gingrich has all the personal life muck of Giuliani, he doesn’t have the redemption that Giuliani has achieved as a result of 9/11 (or the executive experience, for that matter).? Somehow, I just have a feeling that Gingrich is being overrated and overestimated as a presidential contender.

Also suprisingly, for all of Mitt Romney’s active campaigning and work in trying to raise his national profile (which is earning him considerably more votes in the nomination polls), and for all of Bill Richardson’s political stagnation and stasis in the past year and a half, Richardson and Romney have about the same exact level of national name recognition according to this survey.? Even worse, despite having the same exact level of name recognition, Romney clocks in even colder than Richardson.? With all Romney’s charisma and qualifications and political organization and hype, he can’t seem to grab a greater foothold amongst the general populace than Bill Richardson, arguably the most boring and unaccomplished contender in the whole Democratic column.? What gives?

In fact, since this same poll was taken last May, Romney has only caught the eye of 3% more respondents (in May, 68% of respondents didn’t know enough about him to have an opinion, compared to 65% this November).? On top of that, his “warmth” rating has actually been steadily decreasing over the past year, going from a 47.5 in May, to a 46.8 in August, to his current 45.9.? Romney is also the only Republican candidate other than Bill?Frist?to be decreasing–every other candidate is picking up speed.? Perhaps it’s Romney’s shifting of gears as ‘08 looms and he pushes further to the right, likely alienating many of the centrist supporters he had as Governor of Massachusetts.

The apperance on this morning’s This Week television show leaves little doubt, according to a report from the Associated Press, that Kansas Republican Senator Sam Brownback is poised to enter the 2008 presidential race.

For those keeping score in the 2008 GOP presidential contest:

In - Brownback, Gingrich, Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, and Thompson.

Out - Allen, Jeb Bush, Cheney, Rice, Santorum, Schwarzenegger, and Tancredo.

Possibilities - Armey, Frist, Gilmore, Hagel, and Pataki.

CNN released their latest Republican nominee poll results today:

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Nov. 17-19, 2006. N=365 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ? 5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?”Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . .” Names rotated
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/17-19/06	10/27-29/06	8/30 - 9/2/06	?	?
?	?	%	%	%	?	?
?	Rudolph Giuliani	33	29	32	?	?
?	John McCain	30	27	21	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich	9	12	12	?	?
?	Mitt Romney	9	7	6	?	?
?	Bill Frist	3	6	4	?	?
?	Tommy Thompson	3	n/a	n/a	?	?
?	Sam Brownback	2	1	1	?	?
?	Duncan Hunter	2	n/a	n/a	?	?
?	George Pataki	1	5	3	?	?
?	Unsure	8	11	14	?	?
?	George Allen	n/a	2	7

Once again, in the aftermath of the Republicans’ massive defeat in the midterm election, the focus on ‘08 has shifted to electability first and foremost.? Note the boost in Rudy and McCain’s numbers post-’06 (Rudy slightly moreso than McCain).? Also notable is Mitt Romney’s continually rising?numbers.? Romney, who now ties Gingrich in this survey,?seems to have replaced Gingrich as the #3 candidate in the polls, as evidenced by the latest Pew poll, which also puts Romney above Newt.

Funny enough, the Hunter campaign (the very definition of “underdog”) seems to be picking up steam, as he now clocks in at a whole two percent of the vote, the highest percentage I believe he’s ever garnered, which puts ol’ Dunker on par with Sam Brownback and above George Pataki.? While Pataki seemed to have a good thing going for him with his early establishment of concrete on-the-ground operations in Iowa and his significant organization, I think the fact that every one is now starting to pick up in the organization game makes that factor far less important and threatens to leave Pataki (a relatively unknown, unaccomplished, uncharismatic, ultra-liberal candidate) in the dust.

Finally, it seems Tommy Thompson has been switched in for George Allen, who has now lost considerable support or been removed from virtually every poll post-11/8.? Thompson, who has, ironically enough, been talking up an ‘08 run for months now but has received zero media attention until he announced his intention to form an exploratory committee last week, clocks in at about the same place as Bill Frist, which is about what one should expect for a candidate who has held some significant positions but has done little to distinguish himself.? Perhaps fifth through eighth would be Tommy’s appropriate position on the Power Rankings scale.

All in all, I think the message regarding ‘08 is clear following November 7th: electability is the most desired quality in a presidential candidate, while the next most desired quality is being able to clearly articulate the core conservative values of reduced government and fiscal discipline (the seeming abandonment of which arguably caused the GOP’s defeat earlier this month), followed by a Washington outsider image (which McCain seems surprisingly able to cultivate, as a maverick who is widely seen as independent from the day-in-day-out political system).? Rudy, McCain, and Romney–this appears to be the primary triad that is shaping up.

Of course most now know about the working lunch among Mayor Giuliani financial supporters of his 2008 presidential exploratory committee that took place on Wednesday at 21 in New York City. Some additional details about this meeting can be found in reports from the New York Daily News, the New York Post, and the New York Times in today’s editions. It seems to me that one can only conclude that Mayor Giuliani has joined Governor Huckabee, Congressman Hunter, Senator McCain, Governor Romney, and Governor Thompson as a certain Republican candidate for president in 2008; you don’t put people like this to work raising money on your behalf unless you are going to go through with it.

Speaking of Governor Romney, evidently he will be bringing staff and supporters together at an undisclosed location this weekend to plan the next steps in his own presidential campaign for 2008, according to a report today in the Boston Globe.

And Governor Mike Huckabee tells The Morning News that he will not announce specific plans or set up any legal committee for a 2008 presidential campaign until after he is out of office on January 9, 2007, though he will be releasing a book about his national and international policy views around that time and seems poised to enter the race eventually.

Finally, recently defeated United States Senator Rick Santorum has reportedly taken himself out of the running for 2008 as a presidential candidate, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. The magnitude of the Santorum Senate loss in a crucial swing state ostensibly makes him an untenable candidate for a Republican national ticket in 2008, which he is astute enough to recognize.

For those keeping score at home on GOP 2008 presidential candidates, as of now:

In - Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, and Thompson.

Out - Allen, Bloomberg, J. Bush, Cheney, Rice, Santorum, Schwarzenegger, and Tancredo.

Maybe (and perhaps likely) - Armey, Brownback, Frist, Gilmore, Gingrich, Hagel, and Pataki.

The Pew Research Center has released their latest poll regarding the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, and while Rudy holds a very slim lead over McCain for the top slot, he still holds it nonetheless:

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 9-12, 2006. N=1,191 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican voters.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2008. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party’s candidate for president.” If unsure: “Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?” Names rotated
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/9-12/06	8/9-13/06	?	?	?
?	?	%	%	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani	27	24	?	?	?
?	John McCain	26	20	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice	20	21	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney	7	4	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich	6	9	?	?	?
?	Bill Frist	4	3	?	?	?
?	Sam Brownback	1	1	?	?	?
?	Other (vol.)	1	1	?	?	?
?	None (vol.)	2	9	?	?	?
?	Unsure	6	3	?	?	?
?	George Allen	n/a	5

As noted in earlier posts, while Rudy Giuliani’s lead is usually a small one over John McCain, he still holds that lead in virtually every single poll.? I think this leaves a lot of room for McCain to hoist himself up over Giuliani in the polls, but I also think it is now starkly apparent that (regardless of the media’s favoritism) Rudy Giuliani is clearly the frontrunner for the Republican nomination amongst actual everyday voters.

Perhaps the most astonishing change in this poll’s results is the way in which Mitt Romney has vaulted himself past Newt Gingrich to take third place (discounting Rice, who will not run)–and I believe this is the very first time a scientific, national poll has ever clocked Romney in in third.? Just three months ago, in August, Romney followed Gingrich 4 to 9%, but now Romney leads Gingrich 7 to 6%.? I think Romney is beginning to catch on, while Gingrich has been laying quite low since last Spring.

Also, it looks as though George Allen has now been taken off the list, which might account for some of Romney’s newfound support.

Hate to say “We told you so,” but check out Giuliani and McCain’s considerably swelled numbers following the midterm elections.? The big dogs of the race seem to now be getting increasing attention, as the focus for Republicans in 2008 becomes electability.?

It seems that Republican voters are finally beginning to come to terms with the GOP presidential field and finding their niche with a certain candidate, as the level of voters who claim that “None” of the candidates are acceptable to them has dramatically decreased, from 9% of respondents to just 2%.? It looks as though the biggest beneficiaries as of now are indeed Rudy, McCain, and Romney.? It sure is shaping up to be a primarily three-man race now.? This is the last whistle for any more underdog candidates ala Hunter or Thompson who want to jump into this thing–the window for lesser known candidates to get in on the race is quickly closing, and soon the Big Three will begin to dominate the political landscape for the presidential election.? I predict within a few months, we’ll pretty much know who our serious candidates are going to be up until the Convention.

Looks like Barack Obama is gaining on Hillary Rodham Clinton on the Democratic side of things–I believe this is also the first time Obama has garnered more than 20% of the vote for the Democratic nomination.? HRC still holds a commanding lead over him, though.? However, with the Democrats’ penchant for disposing of their assumed frontrunner at really?random?moments during the race and yanking an underdog candidate up to the top slot, all bets are still pretty much off for who the Democratic nominee will be, and this fear of the unknown as to whom the Republicans will have to face in ‘08 keeps the GOP’s focus all the more on the electoral titans in their column–Rudy and McCain.

The annual Conservative Political Action Conference hosted by the American Conservative Union is being held from?March 1 to 3 in Washington, D.C. At least for now, three out of the four top Republican presidential contenders in 2008 are not on the list of potential conference presenters; out of Gingrich, Giuliani, McCain, and?Romney, the only one invited to address the conference at this time is the former Speaker. Senator Bill Frist and Governor Mike Huckabee, two other potential GOP presidential candidates, have been invited to speak in addition to Gingrich.

This is precisely the kind of out-of-touch, status quo, short-sighted, arbitrary litmus?test?thinking that leads to election day debacles for Republicans. I would also imagine that it will lead to reduced attendance, press coverage, and credibility for the event - which the ACU ought to think about before firming up the schedule.

This event has the potential to become a 2007 clarion call for conservatives and Republicans in addressing their future. But instead it looks the same old hackneyed,minside-the-beltway,?fixed game?that has created the mess the GOP finds itself in. And, if so, it is an?extremely disappointing start to the 2008 election cycle for those on the right, who need to hear from all of those aspiring to lead its charge rather than a select few.

According to a new McLaughlin & Associates 2008 presidential poll, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani appear to be the frontrunners on the Republican side, while Hillary Clinton is running head and shoulders above everyone else on the Democratic side.

This is also the first survey I’ve seen that includes newcomer Duncan Hunter in the rankings.? Unfortunately for him, he garners exactly 0% of the votes.? Here’s the results:

Giuliani and McCain run within a few points of each other, and when Republican voters are combined with Independent voters, surprisingly, McCain’s stock goes down.? It can be assumed that Condoleezza Rice’s inclusion in this poll might account for Giuliani’s poorer than usual showing, as Giuliani and Rice both seem to be popular among the redder Republican voters and are two highly popular and recognized figures being forced to split the vote.

The poll also shows McCain and Giuliani blowing Hillary Clinton out of the water, both men holding around 15 pt. leads over Clinton: