Name a woman and a black that would not be an “affirmative action” VP choice for McCain.

The rooster crows:

1) Those republicans that reject Condi have surrendered to the PC left;

2) Do not use the above 1) to avoid the challenge. Name a woman and a black that would not be an “affirmative action” VP choice for McCain.

3) Again, do not avoid the challenge. Name a woman and a black that would not be an “affirmative action” VP choice for McCain.

4) Now that I have shamed you into actually NAMING BOTH A WOMAN AND A BLACK AS A NON-AFIRMATIVE ACTION GOP VP CHOICE, explain why who you named are not affirmative action choices and why Secretary Rice is.

[For the record, I have not been a Rice advoctate.]

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

Not on the shortlist?

Although Sec/state Condoleezza Rice may be campaigning for vice president, I sense no — and I mean no — interest on the McCain side in putting her on a short list… at least not yet.

One wonders whether Marc’s “sense” is from his own intuition or from talking to people within the McCain campaign itself.

In other news, Ambinder also notes that McCain has raised $15 million in March.

First it was The Nation; then The New Yorker; and today, Huff Puff gets in the act:

Breaking: Condi Rice Flirts With VP Possibility — Speaks to Grover Norquist’s Wednesday Group Meeting

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is speaking this morning to Grover Norquist’s weekly powerhouse gathering at Americans for Tax Reform of conservative associations, think tanks, and political operations.

At the semi-secret gatherings which Republican political hopefuls migrate to to get the blessing of not only Norquist but the diverse parts of the nation’s conservative money and political machinery, Norquist gives everyone in the room 3 minutes to pitch their cause or issue. I have attended before, but if one wants to attend again — no one may write or speak about the internal discussion or who attended.

In this case, however, I am not attending — but a source other than Norquist has leaked this information to The Washington Note and Huffington Post.

As one major Republican operative told me yesterday:

Someone like Condi Rice doesn’t go to Grover Norquist’s den to talk about the Annapolis Middle East peace process. She’s going to secure her future in Republican politics and to position herself as a ‘potential’ VP candidate on the McCain ticket.

What’s with liberal mags touting Dr. Rice for the Veep slot?

This space is usually devoted to pristine moral reasoning, but, hell, it’s an election year. Let’s get down and dirty. If McCain really wants to have it all-to refurbish his maverick image without having to flip-flop on the panderings that have tarnished it; to galvanize the attention of the press, the nation, and the world; to make a bold play for the center without seriously alienating “the base”-then he can avail himself of a highly interesting option: Condoleezza Rice.

To deal first with the obvious: Rice may be “only” the second woman and the second African-American to be Secretary of State, but she is indisputably the highest-ranking black female official ever to have served in any branch of the United States government. Her nomination to a constitutional executive office would cost McCain the votes of his party’s hardened racists and incorrigible misogynists. They are surely fewer in number, though, than the people who would like to participate in breaking the glass ceiling of race or gender but, given the choice, would rather do so in a more timid way, and/or without abandoning their party. And with Rice on the ticket the Republicans could attack Clinton or Obama with far less restraint.

By choosing Rice, McCain would shackle himself anew to Bush’s Iraq war. But it’s hard to see how those chains could get much tighter than he has already made them. Rice would fit nicely into McCain’s view of the war as worth fighting but, until Donald Rumsfeld’s exit from the Pentagon, fought clumsily. And it would be fairly easy to establish a story line that would cast Rice as having been less Bush’s enabler than a loyal subordinate who nevertheless pushed gently from within for a more reasonable, more diplomatic approach.

Rice is already fourth in line for the Presidency, and getting bumped up three places would be a shorter leap than any of the three Presidential candidates propose to make. It’s true that her record in office has been one of failure, from downgrading terrorism as a priority before 9/11 to ignoring the Israel-Palestine problem until (almost certainly) too late. But this does not seem to have done much damage to her popularity. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll taken when opposition to the Iraq war was approaching its height, she enjoyed a “favorable-unfavorable” rating of nearly two to one. The conservative rank and file likes her. Though she once described herself as “mildly pro-choice,” she is agile enough to complete the journey to mildly pro-life. And she is a preacher’s daughter.

Choosing Rice would be a trick. Her failures would be buried in an avalanche of positive publicity for a personal story as yet only vaguely known to the broad public. (One of the little girls who died in the 1963 Birmingham church bombing was her playmate? We didn’t know that!) But the trick would not be an entirely cynical one. Her ascension, though nowhere near as momentous a breakthrough as the election of Obama or Clinton, would be a breakthrough all the same. In this connection, a kind word for George W. Bush may be in order. By appointing first Colin Powell and then Rice to the most senior job in the Cabinet, a job of global scope, Bush changed the way millions of white Americans think about black public officials. This may turn out to the most positive legacy of his benighted Presidency.

The fly in the ointment, of course, has always been Dr. Rice’s unwillingness to serve beyond the State Department.

I agree that she would be an excellent choice. But would she take the job? I have my doubts…

Democrats who think it’s going to be a cakewalk into the White House next November had best remember one name: Condoleezza Rice.

John McCain is a formidable candidate in his own right, but if he has the political imagination to do it, he can cause the party of Jefferson and Jackson indescribable angst with Rice as his vice-presidential pick.

Besides being the greatest two-for in GOP history, Rice brings other huge pluses to the old admiral. Indeed, she may be enough to elect the venerable hero/naval aviator.

McCain’s troubles with the religious wing of his party could well evaporate with the churchgoing Rice at his side. She solidifies that part of his base overnight.

With Rice on the ticket, the GOP would have somebody to get enthusiastic about. The Secretary of State is immensely popular with Republicans. For a party that up to now has been clueless about how to run against either a woman or a person of color, Condoleezza Rice is pure political gold.

Woe to any Democrat who thinks taking her on in a debate is a sure thing. The woman is tough, fast on her feet and able to give better than she gets. Anyone who has seen her in action testifying in front of a hostile House or Senate committee knows that she will be able to wipe up the floor with a plodding, ordinary pol of a Democratic vice-presidential candidate. Take Rice lightly at your peril.

In the ordinary course of things the ideal vice-presidential candidate is relied upon to carry his or her home state and keep out of trouble. With Condi the GOP gets a lot more. It gets a superstar to match the Democrats’ superstars. If it comes to name recognition, glamour and magnetism for conservatives, Condi is dandy. Also, it is a plus for the GOP team that she is a snappy dresser.

Rice’s presence on the ticket deprives the Democrats of the we-are-more-diverse-than-thou argument. It makes McCain–whose ethnically diverse family includes an adopted daughter from Bangladesh–an even more attractive candidate for a certain kind of independent voter.

My biggest concern with Dr. Rice as Veep is that selecting her would close the distance that Sen. McCain is perceived to have by Independent voters from the Bush Administration.

This article was originally published on October 11th, 2006.-KWN
___________________________________________________________________________________

Or: “Is Lieberman more conservative than McCain?”

Last night I set off quite the firestorm via a suggestion on one of RudyBlogger’s posts regarding the relative positions on the political spectrum of Joe Lieberman and John McCain. My comment, which I probably should’ve clarified more effectively, was in response to what was in my view a correct assertion by RudyBlogger that in a race involving Lieberman and a McCain-style Republican — say, Rep. Nancy Johnson — Lieberman would win the most Republican votes despite being far less conservative by any quantitative measure of political positions or voting records. The result was a hearty debate in the comments section, most of which questioned how anyone could call Joe-mentum the better conservative in such a contest (but, incidentally, none?of which argued RB was wrong about his prediction of a Lieberman victory in that sort of race). As such, allow me to attempt to clear away the confusion, or perhaps create more of it, by describing the manner in which I see American politics currently aligning.

Read on. (more…)

In the latest Gallup Poll, Rudy Giuliani has slightly widened his lead over John McCain for the Republican nomination.? Rudy now leads McCain 31 to 27%.? The removal of Condoleezza Rice as an option (which, in the crosstabs of past polls has been evidenced to steal numbers from Rudy) probably helped boost Rudy’s numbers this month.

A little lower down, both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are also showing small signs of improvement, with the duo now clocking in at 10 and 7%, respectively.? The rest of the gang hovers in the lower single digits.? It looks as though Romney is now becoming an upper tier candidate in the nation-wide polls.? It’s only a matter of time, in my opinion, before he breaks into the double-digits.

Here’s the full results:

Numbers on the Democratic side of things seem to indicate that John Edwards is making significant strides forward, while both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are stalling a bit.

The survey of Washington, D.C. insiders (36 Democrat members of Congress and 73 Democrat insiders; 34 Republican members of Congress and 77 insiders) by National Journal resulted in the following rankings (and complete numbers are only available to subscribers):

Republicans???????? Most Likely To Be Nominated?????Second Most Likely To Be Nominated

1. John McCain??????????????????????73%??????????????????????????????????????????????23%

2. Mitt Romney??????????????????????18%????????????????????????????????????????????? 52%

3. Rudy Giuliani???????????????????????5%??????????????????????????????????????????????20%

4. Newt Gingrich

5. Mike Huckabee

6. George Pataki

7. Chuck Hagel

8. Condi Rice

9. Sam Brownback

10. Bill Frist

Democrats

1. Hillary Clinton?????????????????

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Al Gore

5. Evan Bayh

6. Tom Vilsack

7. Bill Richardson

8. Joe Biden

9. Wesley Clark

10. Chris Dodd

Of course members of Congress and insiders are going to be strongly influenced by which candidates have put together organizations and lobbied them for support. So it is not surprising that those candidates who are furthest along in hiring and setting up meetings with congressional members are doing the best in these predictive rankings.

But it is interesting to also note that clearly Washington, D.C. insiders do not believe the current polling numbers for Mayor Rudy Giuliani?can be sustained in the heat of a primary campaign. The good news for Mayor Giuliani is how often Washington, D.C. insiders get it wrong.

For all candidates on both sides of the aisle, however, Washington, D.C. insider expectations are going to impact their ability to raise funds among traditional donor types (though among Internet givers it is an entirely different game, based largely on how much buzz the candidate is generating), though?Mayor Giuliani and Speaker Gingrich have the star power to both raise big money and run?non-traditional, outsider campaigns at the same time (which may be very effective in the 2008 cycle).

The latest presidential survey conducted by WNBC/Marist shows Rudy Giuliani with?a very slight lead over John McCain for the 2008 Republican nomination.? Condoleezza Rice, who is still included in Marist’s poll, has been shown by other pollsters to split Rudy’s support, so we can assume, since Condi is very likely not to go back on her promise to forgoe a White House run, that much of her support will go to Giuliani, meaning Rudy’s lead over McCain is probably a bit higher than what is currently displayed:

WNBC/Marist Poll. Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 2006. N=967 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican leaners. MoE ? 5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?”
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/27 - 12/3/06	9/18-20/06	2/13-15/06	10/12-13 & 17/05	2/14-16/05
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	Rudy Giuliani	24	23	22	21	25
?	John McCain	23	15	22	19	21
?	Condoleezza Rice	15	20	22	21	14
?	Newt Gingrich	8	7	5	5	5
?	Mitt Romney	4	4	4	-	1
?	Bill Frist	3	4	2	2	3
?	Chuck Hagel	2	-	1	1	-
?	Tommy Thompson	1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Mike Huckabee	1	-	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Tom Tancredo	1	1	1	1	n/a
?	George Pataki	1	2	2	2	1
?	Sam Brownback	-	1	-	2	n/a
?	Duncan Hunter	-	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Unsure	17	21	17	17	20
?	George Allen	n/a	2	2	4	-
?	Jeb Bush	n/a	n/a	n/a	5	7
?	Rick Santorum	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1
?	Bill Owens	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	2

WNBC/Marist’s results have always been a little bit quirky, but it might just be chalked up to how early and uncertain the race is at this point.? For instance, candidates’ support seems to fluctuate violently in Marist’s polls, while the changes appear to be a bit more gradual in other polling organizations’ surveys (i.e. McCain’s support?bounces from 22% to 15% back up to 23% within a matter of a few months).? Also, candidates that seem to have little to no chance at winning the nomination seem to do quite well in Marist’s polls (i.e. Hagel has a better chance at winning the nomination than Thompson or Huckabee?? Pataki has more support than Brownback?? Don’t think so…)

WNBC/Marist’s adamant refusal to drop Condi Rice from the lineup as other polling organization’s have done likely further skews the numbers, though they had no problem dropping other candidates, like George Allen and Rick Santorum from the list as they disappeared from the radar, and as they will probably do with Bill Frist in their next poll.

And while Rudy Giuliani’s lead is rather slim in some polls, he always seems to retain it, whether the results are within the Margin of Error or not.? There are only a handful of exceptions to this: of the 20 presidential surveys conducted by a major reputable polling company so far in the year 2006, only 5 show John McCain in first place.? Of those 5 polls, 2 of the polls have McCain evenly tied with Rudy for first place, and all are within the MoE.? Despite the mainstream media talk, I don’t think there’s any other option but to assume that Rudy is truly the frontrunner here, albeit a slight one.

According to the latest FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll released today (taken from December 5-6), Rudy Giuliani has widened his lead for the Republican nomination from two points (Aug. 2006) to a current seven points.? Rudy also beats McCain 42% to 40% for the nomination in a head-to-head matchup:

Rudy Giuliani 30%
John McCain 23%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Mitt Romney 8%
Sam Brownback 3%
George Pataki 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Chuck Hagel 0%

In a continuing trend that has been occurring over the course of the past couple months, Newt Gingrich’s numbers continue to decline (from 14% in August) as Mitt Romney’s numbers continue to swell (from 5% in August).? Rudy Giuliani’s base support seems to be shifting its location, as evidenced by the head-to-head nomination matchup, which evidences growing independent support for Rudy and declining indepenedent support for McCain, as well as declining Republican support for Rudy and growing Republican support for McCain.

This month, amongst Republicans, Rudy bests McCain by 42 to 40.? Rudy garners 35% of the independent vote in this matchup, while McCain garners 41%.

In August, amongst Republicans, Rudy bested McCain by 46 to 36.? Rudy garnered only 29% of the independent vote in that month, while McCain garnered 46%.

In a head-to-head matchup between McCain and Romney, it’s an absolute blow-out for McCain, which is to be expected given the name recognition for Romney at this early point in the campaign.? McCain bests Romney by 59 to 14%, with Romney having double the support amongst Republicans that he does amongst independents (14 to 7).

Both Rudy and McCain walk all over Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in general election matchups, widening their respective leads over the Democrats in every matchup this month.

And despite the downplay of Mitt Romney’s “Mormon factor” by many pundits (admittedly including myself), there still seems to be a rather pervasive anti-Mormon candidate sentiment amongst voters.? Some of the same pundits who have played down the high numbers of people like Hillary, Obama, and Condi, as well as black or female candidacies in general, attributing the high approval numbers to the effort of poll respondents in trying to put on their “best,” most “progressive” face to the pollsters, may now have a difficult time trying to explain away the fact that 32% of respondents say the fact that a candidate is Mormon will make it “less likely” to support them if that’s America’s most progressive and accepting face.? In relation, only 10% of respondents say a candidate’s Roman Catholic tradition would make it less likely to support them (same number for Jewish candidates), and with that number broken down, 14% of Democrats say they are “less likely” to vote for a Catholic, while only 9% of Republicans say so, indicating Rudy Giuliani’s Catholicism may actually be a total non-issue for him in the primaries.? If it’s any consolation to the Romney camp, however, three candidate religions do score lower than Mormonism: Muslim candidates (with 45% opposition), atheists (50%), and scientologists (53%).

When the respondents are particularly informed of Romney’s Mormon beliefs, an unfortunate 24% of voters say they are now “less likely” to support him for President, though a nice 67% of respondents say it “doesn’t make a difference”.? Perhaps Romney can improve these numbers as voters get to know him.

Perhaps putting to rest the question of John McCain’s age is the question asking whether the Senator’s many years will interfere with his ability to effectively serve as President, if he should win.? An overwhelming 78% of respondents see no problem with McCain’s age, while only 13% have a problem with it.

To also help answer the ongoing debate over Barack Obama’s qualifications, the poll also asks if Obama has the right experience to be President.? A surprisingly high 44% of Americans are educated enough about the young junior senator to note that he is not qualified enough to be President (with only 22% thinking he is).? Even amongst Democrats, 34% of Dems think he is unqualified.? Still think this kid will get the nomination?

The poll goes on to ask about perceptions of Hillary Rodham’s ideology.? A plurality of Americans (42%) say Clinton’s neither too liberal or too conservative.? 34% of Americans say she’s too liberal, while 7% say she’s too conservative (insert laugh track).

The poll also asks about perceptions of Rudy Giuliani’s ideology.? Even more than Hillary, a whopping 47% of Americans say Rudy is in just the right place politically.? Only 9% of Americans say he’s too liberal, and if anything, 15% say he’s too conservative.? Funny enough, amongst Republicans, with 81% of GOPers knowing enough about Rudy’s positions to have a definitive opinion on him, a total 65% say he’s in the right place.? Only 11% of Republicans say he’s too liberal, which is about the same number of Democrats who say Hillary is too conservative (10%).? According to the numbers, if a pundit says Rudy is too liberal for the GOP, then they must also say Hillary is too conservative for the Democrats, which few MSM analysts would buy.

Rudy Giuliani replacing John Bolton as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.?? That’s the idea that James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal floated.? Obviously, there are some problems with this: the first and most glaring of which is, namely, that Rudy is obviously running for President in 2008, meaning that even if he did get picked, he would be in his post for a very short amount of time before he dropped out to pursue the Oval Office in full force.? However, Giuliani could sure use some more foreign policy credentials, which is commonly cited as one of his most worrisome weaknesses as a national political candidate.? Giuliani was “in” the Iraq Study Group (which released their recommendations today) up until about a couple of weeks ago, when he decided to drop out.? Unfortunately, he never attended a single meeting and some members didn’t even know Rudy was in the group at all.

While the idea of Rudy replacing Bolton is probably more novelty than anything, it does present an interesting question: What credentials is Giuliani going to point to to convince foreign policy-minded Republicans to nominate him?? His speeches and remarks seem to evidence a genuine understanding of many foreign policy situations and the War on Terror, but that in itself may not be enough to convince WoT conservatives who are still currently sitting on the fence in regards to 2008.? Being the mayor of the most diverse town in America and the city that hosts the United Nations and, as such, having dealt often with foreign dignitaries (including his confrontation with Yasser Arafat in 1995, much to the delight of many), offers him some claim to the foreign policy mantle, as does his extensive international traveling he has done as a businessman/consultant/speaker post-mayoralty.

Perhaps there will be another committee or think group for Giuliani to join since he sort of skipped out on the ISG, but somehow, Giuliani doesn’t strike me as a “committee” guy who likes to sit around pouring over charts and data.? He’s too much of a take-charge guy who would rather go get involved in the situations personally, which is why the UN Ambassador position sounds so suitable, were it not for the time limits presented by 2008.? Giuliani’s best bet might be to establish himself as a foreign policy expert by simply taking the lead of fellow presidential candidate Sam Brownback, who, despite being a backwater Senator, has made a name for himself by going to some of the most troublesome areas in the world (like Darfur) to learn personally about international situations.? Being seen on the television going from country to country, meeting with international leaders, and talking to diplomats, Rudy might just be able to carve out a niche for himself in the global affairs sector.

It also might behoove Rudy to cozy up to potential running mate candidates with strong foreign policy experience.? Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice immediately comes to mind–a Giuliani-Rice ticket offers immense electoral power.? Rice’s proven administrative capabilities would help create a very competent, professional, wise looking ticket to attract independents, and honestly a Giuliani-Rice ticket would help make females and minorities feel more included in the political process.

Another possible Veep that Giuliani might want to publicly look into is Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman, who is currently on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.? Plus, Coleman’s not a career legislator–he was formerly the Mayor of St. Paul and a candidate for Governor.? Not only would a Giuliani-Coleman ticket claim two mayors on the same ticket, it would also claim two people who progressed from liberal Democrats to conservative Republicans as their education and personal searches coalesced, and sends a powerful message to liberals and swing voters.

A couple of other good popular running mates might be found in Sen. John Sununu of New Hampshire, or Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, both of whom are also members of the Foreign Relations Committee.

However, Rudy might not need to try too hard to be a big foreign policy wonk.? The other major candidates seem to be equally lacking in international affairs knowledge: John McCain doesn’t have much concrete foreign policy experience, despite being a Vietnamese POW.? Frankly, with great respect for McCain and his service to our country, being stuck in a closed cell on foreign soil doesn’t really count as “foreign policy experience”.? He was on a select committee on POW and MIA issues in the 90’s, but made a lot of blunders in that position that may come back to haunt him such as reportedly “yelling” at family members of MIA’s and being overly friendly with some Vietnamese former POW-torturers, which means he might actually want to try to sweep that stint under the rug.? Mitt Romney, likewise, doesn’t have anything grand with which to lay claim to the foreign policy mantle.? He chaired the 2002 Winter Olympics, which gave him some experience, but that hardly prepares one completely to be the leader of the free world in possibly the most internationalized era our globe has ever gone through.? The main exception may be Newt Gingrich–Newt probably has the most foreign policy experience of any upper tier candidate from his tenure as Speaker of the House and his service on countless boards, committees, and think-tanks analyzing global issues, however, many other factors look likely to clog his candidacy.

It might just be that Rudy won’t have to even try to really prove himself over any of the other major Republican candidates, because of the rest of the field’s lack in this area as well, but one thing’s for sure: he’ll have to get something more under his belt for the general election.

Update: Thanks to reader, Steve, who pointed out Newt Gingrich’s long list of qualifications in regards to foreign policy experience and knowledge.? I severely understated former Speaker Gingrich’s international affairs creds in the original version of this post and sincerely?apologize.

Gallup released their latest presidential race related survey, which asked the general public which figure they would most like to see elected President in 2008.? The poll also asked if respondents would like to see particular presidential candidates run.

Here’s what the poll says:

?	?	Would Like To See Run	Would Not Like To See Run	?Unsure	?
?	?	%	%	%	?	?
?	John McCain				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	56	40	4	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	55	43	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	John Edwards				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	45	49	6	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Hillary Rodham Clinton				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	44	55	1	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Barack Obama				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	38	48	14	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	38	60	3	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Al Gore				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	31	67	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	John Kerry				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	23	74	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	18	78	4	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	16	58	26	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	George Allen				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	13	62	25

As one can see, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani appear to be the only ones for whom a majority of Americans would like to see in the race.? Edwards and Clinton closely follow, but don’t quite make the cut.? Surprisingly, a near majority of Americans prefer not to see Obama in the race.

Unfortunately for Gingrich and Romney, who score in league with ousted Sen. Allen, there seems to be little support amongst the general populace for their candidacies.? With nearly identical name recognition levels, Romney only scores a hair better than Allen, whose career was tarnished by oddity after scandal after oddity this summer, which eventually led to his untimely removal from his post by the people of Virginia.? And further reinforcing my opinions about the incredible weakness of a Gingrich presidential candidacy, surprisingly, Newt has higher negatives than either Allen or Kerry, the highest of the whole lot in fact, with almost 4 out of 5 Americans not wanting to see him around in ‘08.? While Newt makes for a great lecturer and congressperson, my opinion that he would be a terrible presidential candidate is only becoming continually reinforced by his lackluster performance on the campaign trail and his even more lackluster poll numbers.? He will definitely be a policy bulwark, but the nomination will never be his, hope as some may.

The other half of the poll, which is pretty much meaningless, since a third of respondents refused to answer the question and since the format of an actual election only offers two major choices, is as follows:

“Thinking ahead to the election for president in 2008, who would you most like to see elected president?” Open-ended
?	?	?	?	?	?	.
?	?	?	%	?	?	?
?	Hillary Clinton		15	?	?	?
?	John McCain		11	?	?	?
?	Barack Obama		6	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani		5	?	?	?
?	“A Democrat” (non-specific)		3	?	?	?
?	John Edwards		2	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice		2	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich		2	?	?	?
?	“A Republican” (non-specific)		2	?	?	?
?	Al Gore		2	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney		1	?	?	?
?	Joe Biden		1	?	?	?
?	John Kerry		1	?	?	?
?	Bill Frist		1	?	?	?
?	Colin Powell		1	?	?	?
?	Other		7	?	?	?
?	No one		5	?	?	?
?	Unsure		33

As of now, it appears that, if the race for the Republican presidential nomination has any frontrunners at all, then they are (no more and no less than) Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.? While candidates like Mitt Romney will surely hold much sway in the campaign to come, it is far too early at this point to declare him an “upper tier” candidate.? Romney has an enormous amount of uphill work to do, probably moreso than any other serious contender.

Quinnipiac University released today a survey that asked about people’s feelings toward many leading presidential candidates and other politicians.? Quinnipiac’s famous poll, called the “feeling thermometer,” gauges how warm or cold registered voters feel toward?certain figures.? Here’s what this month’s poll has to say:

?
	?MEAN RATING	Unsure/ Refused %
Evan Bayh	43.3	76
Joe Biden	47.0	52
Hillary Clinton	49.0	1
John Edwards	49.9	20
Bill Frist	41.5	53
Newt Gingrich	42.0	15
Rudy Giuliani	64.2	9
Al Gore	44.9	3
John Kerry	39.6	5
John McCain	57.7	12
Barack Obama	58.8	41
Condoleezza Rice	56.1	7
Bill Richardson	47.7	65
Mitt Romney	45.9	65

Clearly, the person in the best position according to this poll is Rudy Giuliani.? Giuliani is, not only the sole candidate to break into the 60’s, but he doesn’t just break 60, he clocks in at 64.2, almost half-way to 70.? No question about it–no other candidate creates as many warm feelings as Giuliani.? Barack Obama comes in at a distant second with 58.8, and McCain is close behind at 57.7.? Granted, people might have warm feelings about Oprah, but that doesn’t mean they’d support her for President.? However, it is inarguable that Rudy’s reservoir of good will that he’s built up ever since 9/11 gives him an enormous leg-up in this race.? Perhaps this poll will help the media begin to see that McCain’s position as frontrunner isn’t as solid as assumed–that, perhaps, McCain isn’t in fact the only frontrunner for the GOP nomination.? At this point, I don’t see anything less than a dead even tie between Rudy and McCain on the Republican side.

Not surprisingly low?are Bill?Frist, one of the most frustrating and incompetent Senate Majority Leaders Republicans have had in a long time,?and John Kerry, who has plummeted since his “botched joke” earlier this fall.? I doubt we’ll be seeing much more from him.? Kerry made the same exact mistakes as George Allen: he A). said something incredibly stupid that there was really no way to explain way, B). tried to explain it away, and C). didn’t just make a sincere apology directly to those he insulted right away, but drew it out until it became a big deal and then gave a weasly, half-assed apology.? Let this be a lesson to all future presidential candidates–learn from Kerry and Allen’s mistakes.? 2008 will be the toughest race in years, and neither party wants to nominate someone they think is immature and untrustworthy enough to throw away an entire campaign with an ill-timed?slip of the tongue.

Surprisingly low, however, are Evan Bayh, the very popular moderate-Democrat?Governor-turned-Senator from Indiana whom we would expect to have a lot of crossover appeal, and Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House who is increasingly being touted as one of the top-tier major Republican presidential candidates.? I could see Bayh’s numbers rising?dramatically as he becomes better known to those unsure independents who might break for him later on.? The only reason Gingrich is?seen as such a contender, in my opinion, is the flaws in all the other candidates.? For some, it’s becoming clear that all the lower-tier candidates have serious problems, and as many of them pick themselves off by their own stupidity, Newt (someone who, so far, has avoided saying anything really damning) seems to just float around, letting the political corpses of his failing colleagues buoy him up higher and higher.? He hasn’t really done or accomplished anything significant or been in any sort of real executive role in close to a decade now.? He’s just playing it safe enough that he’s becoming many voters’ alternative to the centrist-Giuliani/moderate-McCain on one side and the conservative political underdogs/newbies on the other side.? I have to also give credit where credit is due–Gingrich is a great speaker and organizer, and he’s able to convey thoughts and solutions in a way that few politicians have ever been able to.? However, there is a persistently negative aura that surrounds him amongst the general populace, and while Gingrich has all the personal life muck of Giuliani, he doesn’t have the redemption that Giuliani has achieved as a result of 9/11 (or the executive experience, for that matter).? Somehow, I just have a feeling that Gingrich is being overrated and overestimated as a presidential contender.

Also suprisingly, for all of Mitt Romney’s active campaigning and work in trying to raise his national profile (which is earning him considerably more votes in the nomination polls), and for all of Bill Richardson’s political stagnation and stasis in the past year and a half, Richardson and Romney have about the same exact level of national name recognition according to this survey.? Even worse, despite having the same exact level of name recognition, Romney clocks in even colder than Richardson.? With all Romney’s charisma and qualifications and political organization and hype, he can’t seem to grab a greater foothold amongst the general populace than Bill Richardson, arguably the most boring and unaccomplished contender in the whole Democratic column.? What gives?

In fact, since this same poll was taken last May, Romney has only caught the eye of 3% more respondents (in May, 68% of respondents didn’t know enough about him to have an opinion, compared to 65% this November).? On top of that, his “warmth” rating has actually been steadily decreasing over the past year, going from a 47.5 in May, to a 46.8 in August, to his current 45.9.? Romney is also the only Republican candidate other than Bill?Frist?to be decreasing–every other candidate is picking up speed.? Perhaps it’s Romney’s shifting of gears as ‘08 looms and he pushes further to the right, likely alienating many of the centrist supporters he had as Governor of Massachusetts.

The apperance on this morning’s This Week television show leaves little doubt, according to a report from the Associated Press, that Kansas Republican Senator Sam Brownback is poised to enter the 2008 presidential race.

For those keeping score in the 2008 GOP presidential contest:

In - Brownback, Gingrich, Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, and Thompson.

Out - Allen, Jeb Bush, Cheney, Rice, Santorum, Schwarzenegger, and Tancredo.

Possibilities - Armey, Frist, Gilmore, Hagel, and Pataki.

Of course most now know about the working lunch among Mayor Giuliani financial supporters of his 2008 presidential exploratory committee that took place on Wednesday at 21 in New York City. Some additional details about this meeting can be found in reports from the New York Daily News, the New York Post, and the New York Times in today’s editions. It seems to me that one can only conclude that Mayor Giuliani has joined Governor Huckabee, Congressman Hunter, Senator McCain, Governor Romney, and Governor Thompson as a certain Republican candidate for president in 2008; you don’t put people like this to work raising money on your behalf unless you are going to go through with it.

Speaking of Governor Romney, evidently he will be bringing staff and supporters together at an undisclosed location this weekend to plan the next steps in his own presidential campaign for 2008, according to a report today in the Boston Globe.

And Governor Mike Huckabee tells The Morning News that he will not announce specific plans or set up any legal committee for a 2008 presidential campaign until after he is out of office on January 9, 2007, though he will be releasing a book about his national and international policy views around that time and seems poised to enter the race eventually.

Finally, recently defeated United States Senator Rick Santorum has reportedly taken himself out of the running for 2008 as a presidential candidate, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. The magnitude of the Santorum Senate loss in a crucial swing state ostensibly makes him an untenable candidate for a Republican national ticket in 2008, which he is astute enough to recognize.

For those keeping score at home on GOP 2008 presidential candidates, as of now:

In - Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, and Thompson.

Out - Allen, Bloomberg, J. Bush, Cheney, Rice, Santorum, Schwarzenegger, and Tancredo.

Maybe (and perhaps likely) - Armey, Brownback, Frist, Gilmore, Gingrich, Hagel, and Pataki.