Cornyn from J Martin:

Sen. John Cornyn — the man who so famously was on the receiving end of a John McCain f-bomb last year — is getting behind his colleague from Arizona.

In a statement just released, Cornyn praised McCain on spending and national security and said the GOP now needed to close ranks.

“With many of my colleagues, I have been determined to stay out of the primary contests and allow the members of our party to work their will,” Cornyn said. “I now believe, with a number of the other candidates deciding to step aside, that it is time for the Republican Party to come together and stand behind Senator McCain. I am honored to endorse him for President of the United States today and will do whatever I can to support his candidacy.”

Allen’s Endorsement:

“John McCain has led a life of heroic service to our country,” said Governor Allen. “His experience coupled with his strong belief in core conservative principles makes him uniquely prepared to serve as our next commander in chief. I am confident that he is the only candidate who can combat the threat of radical Islamic extremism, ensure our country’s economic prosperity, stop wasteful Washington spending, and uphold our traditional values. Today, I urge all fellow Virginians and Americans to join me in supporting John McCain for president.”

When this is all said and done, the history of the 2008 race will be one of stunning rises and catastrophic falls. But one story stands out as the most bizarre of the campaign. What happened to Fred Thompson? It seems like ancient history now, but he was supposed to be The Guy. The White Knight riding into town to sweep aside the apostasies of The Mayor, the Maverick and the Mormon and claim the nomination of the Republican Party. His name had been touted seriously as a candidate since March. Back in June, I wrote an extensive post that analyzed his effect on McCain, Rudy and Romney. I concluded that he had hurt Romney the most because he was filing a vacuum that Romney was supposed to take. He had pundits and bloggers waiting in anticipation for the moment when he would officially enter the race. Any day now, we were assured by his campaign. By the beginning of next month at the latest. And then, nothing. He had missed his moment. By the time he finally entered the race, he fizzled incredibly quickly. Instead of being proactive and working to win back disillusioned supporters, he just sort of disappeared. Nowadays, he’s almost a non-entity on the campaign trail. Even Ron Paul gets more press coverage than Thompson.

So, color me surprised when I saw that Thompson was claiming that party time is over and that it’s time to get down to business. He declared that he was “all in” to finish strong in Iowa and South Carolina. Of course, he declares that after the rise of Huckabee cut Thompson’s already lagging support base in half, if not more. Even if Thompson manages a 3rd place finish in Iowa, he will still lose the state by 20 or more points. That’s not going to earn him any momentum anywhere. Not to mention, his shocking 1% showing in the latest New Hampshire poll and his inability to compete with Huckabee, Romney, McCain and Rudy in Michigan and Nevada. By the time South Carolina rolls around, will he have any support left?

How does Thompson plan to fix this problem? He plans to unveil the Nonstop Express and take Iowa by storm:

The campaign plans to launch a bus tour of Iowa starting on Dec.17 and will take a few days off for the Christmas holiday before returning to Iowa for another bus trip, which will continue until the beginning of the new year.

Doesn’t that just symbolize his entire campaign?

It is ironic that Mitt Romney’s inability to fill the Southern conservative messiah role that was meant for George Allen and Bill Frist, gave rise to Fred Thompson. But due to his inabilities to live up to the role, he opened the way for Mike Huckabee and now Huckabee’s campaign might single handily destroy Romney’s and Thompson’s.

George Allen has endorsed Fred Thompson and will occupy a top-spot on his campaign leadership team per Marc Ambinder:

Former Sen. George Allen has endorsed Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign and will serve as a member of Thompson’s national leadership team.

Also, Thompson will announce today that former TN Sen. Howard Baker will serve as his national campaign chair.

Other members of the leadership team include former State Dept. official Liz Cheney and former Sen. Spence Abraham.

Several of Allen’s former advisers are raising money for Thompson or have agreed to serve as advisers to his campaign.

This has been rumored for some time and is not all that surprising considering that FDT has filled the niche that Allen would have occupied in this field.

Former Republican United States Senator from Virginia George Allen talks to David Brody about the GOP presidential primary of 2008.

Confirming what everybody already knew, outgoing Virginia Sen. George Allen this weekend announced that running for President in 2008 is now out of consideration. While he did not rule out running for elected office again some time in the future, his loss to Democratic challenger Jim Webb in November effectively ended his presumed White House ambitions.

It was a long, exciting, and interesting nascent campaign to follow these past couple of years, but it has now officially come to a close. Recently ousted politicians never make very good presidential candidates anyways (Tom Daschle had enough sense to drop out on the Democratic side a couple of weeks ago as well). The Allen “campaign” was an amazing story. One that took an underdog, unheard-of young Senator to becoming the Insider’s frontrunner for the Republican nomination. And a story that brought him down with a single slip of the tongue. Allen can be both an inspiration and a warning to other candidates. May we wish him well in whatever he chooses to do after January 2007.

The latest presidential survey conducted by WNBC/Marist shows Rudy Giuliani with?a very slight lead over John McCain for the 2008 Republican nomination.? Condoleezza Rice, who is still included in Marist’s poll, has been shown by other pollsters to split Rudy’s support, so we can assume, since Condi is very likely not to go back on her promise to forgoe a White House run, that much of her support will go to Giuliani, meaning Rudy’s lead over McCain is probably a bit higher than what is currently displayed:

WNBC/Marist Poll. Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 2006. N=967 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican leaners. MoE ? 5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?”
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/27 - 12/3/06	9/18-20/06	2/13-15/06	10/12-13 & 17/05	2/14-16/05
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	Rudy Giuliani	24	23	22	21	25
?	John McCain	23	15	22	19	21
?	Condoleezza Rice	15	20	22	21	14
?	Newt Gingrich	8	7	5	5	5
?	Mitt Romney	4	4	4	-	1
?	Bill Frist	3	4	2	2	3
?	Chuck Hagel	2	-	1	1	-
?	Tommy Thompson	1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Mike Huckabee	1	-	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Tom Tancredo	1	1	1	1	n/a
?	George Pataki	1	2	2	2	1
?	Sam Brownback	-	1	-	2	n/a
?	Duncan Hunter	-	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Unsure	17	21	17	17	20
?	George Allen	n/a	2	2	4	-
?	Jeb Bush	n/a	n/a	n/a	5	7
?	Rick Santorum	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1
?	Bill Owens	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	2

WNBC/Marist’s results have always been a little bit quirky, but it might just be chalked up to how early and uncertain the race is at this point.? For instance, candidates’ support seems to fluctuate violently in Marist’s polls, while the changes appear to be a bit more gradual in other polling organizations’ surveys (i.e. McCain’s support?bounces from 22% to 15% back up to 23% within a matter of a few months).? Also, candidates that seem to have little to no chance at winning the nomination seem to do quite well in Marist’s polls (i.e. Hagel has a better chance at winning the nomination than Thompson or Huckabee?? Pataki has more support than Brownback?? Don’t think so…)

WNBC/Marist’s adamant refusal to drop Condi Rice from the lineup as other polling organization’s have done likely further skews the numbers, though they had no problem dropping other candidates, like George Allen and Rick Santorum from the list as they disappeared from the radar, and as they will probably do with Bill Frist in their next poll.

And while Rudy Giuliani’s lead is rather slim in some polls, he always seems to retain it, whether the results are within the Margin of Error or not.? There are only a handful of exceptions to this: of the 20 presidential surveys conducted by a major reputable polling company so far in the year 2006, only 5 show John McCain in first place.? Of those 5 polls, 2 of the polls have McCain evenly tied with Rudy for first place, and all are within the MoE.? Despite the mainstream media talk, I don’t think there’s any other option but to assume that Rudy is truly the frontrunner here, albeit a slight one.

Gallup released their latest presidential race related survey, which asked the general public which figure they would most like to see elected President in 2008.? The poll also asked if respondents would like to see particular presidential candidates run.

Here’s what the poll says:

?	?	Would Like To See Run	Would Not Like To See Run	?Unsure	?
?	?	%	%	%	?	?
?	John McCain				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	56	40	4	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	55	43	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	John Edwards				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	45	49	6	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Hillary Rodham Clinton				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	44	55	1	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Barack Obama				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	38	48	14	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	38	60	3	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Al Gore				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	31	67	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	John Kerry				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	23	74	2	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	18	78	4	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	16	58	26	?	?
?	?	?	?	?	?	?
?	George Allen				?	?
?	? 11/27-29/06	13	62	25

As one can see, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani appear to be the only ones for whom a majority of Americans would like to see in the race.? Edwards and Clinton closely follow, but don’t quite make the cut.? Surprisingly, a near majority of Americans prefer not to see Obama in the race.

Unfortunately for Gingrich and Romney, who score in league with ousted Sen. Allen, there seems to be little support amongst the general populace for their candidacies.? With nearly identical name recognition levels, Romney only scores a hair better than Allen, whose career was tarnished by oddity after scandal after oddity this summer, which eventually led to his untimely removal from his post by the people of Virginia.? And further reinforcing my opinions about the incredible weakness of a Gingrich presidential candidacy, surprisingly, Newt has higher negatives than either Allen or Kerry, the highest of the whole lot in fact, with almost 4 out of 5 Americans not wanting to see him around in ‘08.? While Newt makes for a great lecturer and congressperson, my opinion that he would be a terrible presidential candidate is only becoming continually reinforced by his lackluster performance on the campaign trail and his even more lackluster poll numbers.? He will definitely be a policy bulwark, but the nomination will never be his, hope as some may.

The other half of the poll, which is pretty much meaningless, since a third of respondents refused to answer the question and since the format of an actual election only offers two major choices, is as follows:

“Thinking ahead to the election for president in 2008, who would you most like to see elected president?” Open-ended
?	?	?	?	?	?	.
?	?	?	%	?	?	?
?	Hillary Clinton		15	?	?	?
?	John McCain		11	?	?	?
?	Barack Obama		6	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani		5	?	?	?
?	“A Democrat” (non-specific)		3	?	?	?
?	John Edwards		2	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice		2	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich		2	?	?	?
?	“A Republican” (non-specific)		2	?	?	?
?	Al Gore		2	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney		1	?	?	?
?	Joe Biden		1	?	?	?
?	John Kerry		1	?	?	?
?	Bill Frist		1	?	?	?
?	Colin Powell		1	?	?	?
?	Other		7	?	?	?
?	No one		5	?	?	?
?	Unsure		33

As of now, it appears that, if the race for the Republican presidential nomination has any frontrunners at all, then they are (no more and no less than) Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.? While candidates like Mitt Romney will surely hold much sway in the campaign to come, it is far too early at this point to declare him an “upper tier” candidate.? Romney has an enormous amount of uphill work to do, probably moreso than any other serious contender.

Quinnipiac University released today a survey that asked about people’s feelings toward many leading presidential candidates and other politicians.? Quinnipiac’s famous poll, called the “feeling thermometer,” gauges how warm or cold registered voters feel toward?certain figures.? Here’s what this month’s poll has to say:

?
	?MEAN RATING	Unsure/ Refused %
Evan Bayh	43.3	76
Joe Biden	47.0	52
Hillary Clinton	49.0	1
John Edwards	49.9	20
Bill Frist	41.5	53
Newt Gingrich	42.0	15
Rudy Giuliani	64.2	9
Al Gore	44.9	3
John Kerry	39.6	5
John McCain	57.7	12
Barack Obama	58.8	41
Condoleezza Rice	56.1	7
Bill Richardson	47.7	65
Mitt Romney	45.9	65

Clearly, the person in the best position according to this poll is Rudy Giuliani.? Giuliani is, not only the sole candidate to break into the 60’s, but he doesn’t just break 60, he clocks in at 64.2, almost half-way to 70.? No question about it–no other candidate creates as many warm feelings as Giuliani.? Barack Obama comes in at a distant second with 58.8, and McCain is close behind at 57.7.? Granted, people might have warm feelings about Oprah, but that doesn’t mean they’d support her for President.? However, it is inarguable that Rudy’s reservoir of good will that he’s built up ever since 9/11 gives him an enormous leg-up in this race.? Perhaps this poll will help the media begin to see that McCain’s position as frontrunner isn’t as solid as assumed–that, perhaps, McCain isn’t in fact the only frontrunner for the GOP nomination.? At this point, I don’t see anything less than a dead even tie between Rudy and McCain on the Republican side.

Not surprisingly low?are Bill?Frist, one of the most frustrating and incompetent Senate Majority Leaders Republicans have had in a long time,?and John Kerry, who has plummeted since his “botched joke” earlier this fall.? I doubt we’ll be seeing much more from him.? Kerry made the same exact mistakes as George Allen: he A). said something incredibly stupid that there was really no way to explain way, B). tried to explain it away, and C). didn’t just make a sincere apology directly to those he insulted right away, but drew it out until it became a big deal and then gave a weasly, half-assed apology.? Let this be a lesson to all future presidential candidates–learn from Kerry and Allen’s mistakes.? 2008 will be the toughest race in years, and neither party wants to nominate someone they think is immature and untrustworthy enough to throw away an entire campaign with an ill-timed?slip of the tongue.

Surprisingly low, however, are Evan Bayh, the very popular moderate-Democrat?Governor-turned-Senator from Indiana whom we would expect to have a lot of crossover appeal, and Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House who is increasingly being touted as one of the top-tier major Republican presidential candidates.? I could see Bayh’s numbers rising?dramatically as he becomes better known to those unsure independents who might break for him later on.? The only reason Gingrich is?seen as such a contender, in my opinion, is the flaws in all the other candidates.? For some, it’s becoming clear that all the lower-tier candidates have serious problems, and as many of them pick themselves off by their own stupidity, Newt (someone who, so far, has avoided saying anything really damning) seems to just float around, letting the political corpses of his failing colleagues buoy him up higher and higher.? He hasn’t really done or accomplished anything significant or been in any sort of real executive role in close to a decade now.? He’s just playing it safe enough that he’s becoming many voters’ alternative to the centrist-Giuliani/moderate-McCain on one side and the conservative political underdogs/newbies on the other side.? I have to also give credit where credit is due–Gingrich is a great speaker and organizer, and he’s able to convey thoughts and solutions in a way that few politicians have ever been able to.? However, there is a persistently negative aura that surrounds him amongst the general populace, and while Gingrich has all the personal life muck of Giuliani, he doesn’t have the redemption that Giuliani has achieved as a result of 9/11 (or the executive experience, for that matter).? Somehow, I just have a feeling that Gingrich is being overrated and overestimated as a presidential contender.

Also suprisingly, for all of Mitt Romney’s active campaigning and work in trying to raise his national profile (which is earning him considerably more votes in the nomination polls), and for all of Bill Richardson’s political stagnation and stasis in the past year and a half, Richardson and Romney have about the same exact level of national name recognition according to this survey.? Even worse, despite having the same exact level of name recognition, Romney clocks in even colder than Richardson.? With all Romney’s charisma and qualifications and political organization and hype, he can’t seem to grab a greater foothold amongst the general populace than Bill Richardson, arguably the most boring and unaccomplished contender in the whole Democratic column.? What gives?

In fact, since this same poll was taken last May, Romney has only caught the eye of 3% more respondents (in May, 68% of respondents didn’t know enough about him to have an opinion, compared to 65% this November).? On top of that, his “warmth” rating has actually been steadily decreasing over the past year, going from a 47.5 in May, to a 46.8 in August, to his current 45.9.? Romney is also the only Republican candidate other than Bill?Frist?to be decreasing–every other candidate is picking up speed.? Perhaps it’s Romney’s shifting of gears as ‘08 looms and he pushes further to the right, likely alienating many of the centrist supporters he had as Governor of Massachusetts.

The apperance on this morning’s This Week television show leaves little doubt, according to a report from the Associated Press, that Kansas Republican Senator Sam Brownback is poised to enter the 2008 presidential race.

For those keeping score in the 2008 GOP presidential contest:

In - Brownback, Gingrich, Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, and Thompson.

Out - Allen, Jeb Bush, Cheney, Rice, Santorum, Schwarzenegger, and Tancredo.

Possibilities - Armey, Frist, Gilmore, Hagel, and Pataki.

CNN released their latest Republican nominee poll results today:

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Nov. 17-19, 2006. N=365 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ? 5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?”Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . .” Names rotated
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/17-19/06	10/27-29/06	8/30 - 9/2/06	?	?
?	?	%	%	%	?	?
?	Rudolph Giuliani	33	29	32	?	?
?	John McCain	30	27	21	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich	9	12	12	?	?
?	Mitt Romney	9	7	6	?	?
?	Bill Frist	3	6	4	?	?
?	Tommy Thompson	3	n/a	n/a	?	?
?	Sam Brownback	2	1	1	?	?
?	Duncan Hunter	2	n/a	n/a	?	?
?	George Pataki	1	5	3	?	?
?	Unsure	8	11	14	?	?
?	George Allen	n/a	2	7

Once again, in the aftermath of the Republicans’ massive defeat in the midterm election, the focus on ‘08 has shifted to electability first and foremost.? Note the boost in Rudy and McCain’s numbers post-’06 (Rudy slightly moreso than McCain).? Also notable is Mitt Romney’s continually rising?numbers.? Romney, who now ties Gingrich in this survey,?seems to have replaced Gingrich as the #3 candidate in the polls, as evidenced by the latest Pew poll, which also puts Romney above Newt.

Funny enough, the Hunter campaign (the very definition of “underdog”) seems to be picking up steam, as he now clocks in at a whole two percent of the vote, the highest percentage I believe he’s ever garnered, which puts ol’ Dunker on par with Sam Brownback and above George Pataki.? While Pataki seemed to have a good thing going for him with his early establishment of concrete on-the-ground operations in Iowa and his significant organization, I think the fact that every one is now starting to pick up in the organization game makes that factor far less important and threatens to leave Pataki (a relatively unknown, unaccomplished, uncharismatic, ultra-liberal candidate) in the dust.

Finally, it seems Tommy Thompson has been switched in for George Allen, who has now lost considerable support or been removed from virtually every poll post-11/8.? Thompson, who has, ironically enough, been talking up an ‘08 run for months now but has received zero media attention until he announced his intention to form an exploratory committee last week, clocks in at about the same place as Bill Frist, which is about what one should expect for a candidate who has held some significant positions but has done little to distinguish himself.? Perhaps fifth through eighth would be Tommy’s appropriate position on the Power Rankings scale.

All in all, I think the message regarding ‘08 is clear following November 7th: electability is the most desired quality in a presidential candidate, while the next most desired quality is being able to clearly articulate the core conservative values of reduced government and fiscal discipline (the seeming abandonment of which arguably caused the GOP’s defeat earlier this month), followed by a Washington outsider image (which McCain seems surprisingly able to cultivate, as a maverick who is widely seen as independent from the day-in-day-out political system).? Rudy, McCain, and Romney–this appears to be the primary triad that is shaping up.

Of course most now know about the working lunch among Mayor Giuliani financial supporters of his 2008 presidential exploratory committee that took place on Wednesday at 21 in New York City. Some additional details about this meeting can be found in reports from the New York Daily News, the New York Post, and the New York Times in today’s editions. It seems to me that one can only conclude that Mayor Giuliani has joined Governor Huckabee, Congressman Hunter, Senator McCain, Governor Romney, and Governor Thompson as a certain Republican candidate for president in 2008; you don’t put people like this to work raising money on your behalf unless you are going to go through with it.

Speaking of Governor Romney, evidently he will be bringing staff and supporters together at an undisclosed location this weekend to plan the next steps in his own presidential campaign for 2008, according to a report today in the Boston Globe.

And Governor Mike Huckabee tells The Morning News that he will not announce specific plans or set up any legal committee for a 2008 presidential campaign until after he is out of office on January 9, 2007, though he will be releasing a book about his national and international policy views around that time and seems poised to enter the race eventually.

Finally, recently defeated United States Senator Rick Santorum has reportedly taken himself out of the running for 2008 as a presidential candidate, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. The magnitude of the Santorum Senate loss in a crucial swing state ostensibly makes him an untenable candidate for a Republican national ticket in 2008, which he is astute enough to recognize.

For those keeping score at home on GOP 2008 presidential candidates, as of now:

In - Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, and Thompson.

Out - Allen, Bloomberg, J. Bush, Cheney, Rice, Santorum, Schwarzenegger, and Tancredo.

Maybe (and perhaps likely) - Armey, Brownback, Frist, Gilmore, Gingrich, Hagel, and Pataki.

The Pew Research Center has released their latest poll regarding the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, and while Rudy holds a very slim lead over McCain for the top slot, he still holds it nonetheless:

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 9-12, 2006. N=1,191 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican voters.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2008. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party’s candidate for president.” If unsure: “Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?” Names rotated
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/9-12/06	8/9-13/06	?	?	?
?	?	%	%	?	?	?
?	Rudy Giuliani	27	24	?	?	?
?	John McCain	26	20	?	?	?
?	Condoleezza Rice	20	21	?	?	?
?	Mitt Romney	7	4	?	?	?
?	Newt Gingrich	6	9	?	?	?
?	Bill Frist	4	3	?	?	?
?	Sam Brownback	1	1	?	?	?
?	Other (vol.)	1	1	?	?	?
?	None (vol.)	2	9	?	?	?
?	Unsure	6	3	?	?	?
?	George Allen	n/a	5

As noted in earlier posts, while Rudy Giuliani’s lead is usually a small one over John McCain, he still holds that lead in virtually every single poll.? I think this leaves a lot of room for McCain to hoist himself up over Giuliani in the polls, but I also think it is now starkly apparent that (regardless of the media’s favoritism) Rudy Giuliani is clearly the frontrunner for the Republican nomination amongst actual everyday voters.

Perhaps the most astonishing change in this poll’s results is the way in which Mitt Romney has vaulted himself past Newt Gingrich to take third place (discounting Rice, who will not run)–and I believe this is the very first time a scientific, national poll has ever clocked Romney in in third.? Just three months ago, in August, Romney followed Gingrich 4 to 9%, but now Romney leads Gingrich 7 to 6%.? I think Romney is beginning to catch on, while Gingrich has been laying quite low since last Spring.

Also, it looks as though George Allen has now been taken off the list, which might account for some of Romney’s newfound support.

Hate to say “We told you so,” but check out Giuliani and McCain’s considerably swelled numbers following the midterm elections.? The big dogs of the race seem to now be getting increasing attention, as the focus for Republicans in 2008 becomes electability.?

It seems that Republican voters are finally beginning to come to terms with the GOP presidential field and finding their niche with a certain candidate, as the level of voters who claim that “None” of the candidates are acceptable to them has dramatically decreased, from 9% of respondents to just 2%.? It looks as though the biggest beneficiaries as of now are indeed Rudy, McCain, and Romney.? It sure is shaping up to be a primarily three-man race now.? This is the last whistle for any more underdog candidates ala Hunter or Thompson who want to jump into this thing–the window for lesser known candidates to get in on the race is quickly closing, and soon the Big Three will begin to dominate the political landscape for the presidential election.? I predict within a few months, we’ll pretty much know who our serious candidates are going to be up until the Convention.

Looks like Barack Obama is gaining on Hillary Rodham Clinton on the Democratic side of things–I believe this is also the first time Obama has garnered more than 20% of the vote for the Democratic nomination.? HRC still holds a commanding lead over him, though.? However, with the Democrats’ penchant for disposing of their assumed frontrunner at really?random?moments during the race and yanking an underdog candidate up to the top slot, all bets are still pretty much off for who the Democratic nominee will be, and this fear of the unknown as to whom the Republicans will have to face in ‘08 keeps the GOP’s focus all the more on the electoral titans in their column–Rudy and McCain.

I think it’s now safe to say that George Allen will never be President of the United States.? Prediction: this is only the beginning of the narrowing of the GOP field, and the expansion of the Democratic one.? Just as the post-1994 Democrat depression ensured that Bill Clinton would get no primary challengers (despite losing both houses of Congress), many Republican non-frontrunners will likely sit this one out, assuming the Dems are now favored to win in ‘08.? Conversely, Democrats are now pumped and Hillary’s about to get a half dozen new challengers.? Ironically, Hillary is one of the losers of this year, with Rudy and McCain big winners.

Today, George Allen gracefully conceded to Democratic challenger Jim Webb, marking the official beginning of a Democratic Senate Majority.? The United States has lost a great leader and congressman, and we will all be saddened by Sen. Allen’s absence from Capitol Hill.??But, at least now that the 2006 elections are finally over, we can regroup and move forward, humbled, but more wise, focused, and motivated than ever.

According to a new McLaughlin & Associates 2008 presidential poll, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani appear to be the frontrunners on the Republican side, while Hillary Clinton is running head and shoulders above everyone else on the Democratic side.

This is also the first survey I’ve seen that includes newcomer Duncan Hunter in the rankings.? Unfortunately for him, he garners exactly 0% of the votes.? Here’s the results:

Giuliani and McCain run within a few points of each other, and when Republican voters are combined with Independent voters, surprisingly, McCain’s stock goes down.? It can be assumed that Condoleezza Rice’s inclusion in this poll might account for Giuliani’s poorer than usual showing, as Giuliani and Rice both seem to be popular among the redder Republican voters and are two highly popular and recognized figures being forced to split the vote.

The poll also shows McCain and Giuliani blowing Hillary Clinton out of the water, both men holding around 15 pt. leads over Clinton:

It now looks reasonable to declare that the GOP has lost both the House of Representatives and the Senate, something that very few (if any) serious pundits predicted. It’s a shocker, but it is part of life and it’s something that Republicans must take in stride and run with.? The GOP is a superior party because the majority of Americans still agree with the fundamental values we believe in–responsibility, integrity,?smaller government, and the pioneering spirit that has made America great.

However, this is going to have profound reverberations in 2008.? As far as presidential candidates, this is primarily going to hurt those in Congress. We’re hearing lots from the Democrats now about cooperation and partnership and moderation, and as much as I’d like to believe that, I don’t think American politics have gotten past the deeply divided partisanship we’ve built up in the past decade. Rather than coming together, which I still hope we can do, I have a feeling Congress is merely going to be in a state of gridlock for the next two years, as Congresspersons have shown an uncanny refusal to compromise or reach across the aisle these days.

George Allen’s ‘08 candidacy will feel the sharpest blow from this ordeal. In fact, his candidacy will likely dissipate entirely within the next week.

Next most hurt by this will be Bill Frist. He is vacating his Senate Majority Leader post this year leaving not only a legacy of frustration and inefficiency, but of leading a GOP Congress so incompetent that we defied even the worst expectations of all the pundits, losing both the Senate and House in a year in which we could have feasibly retained both. Perhaps Frist’s only redemption will be that he was able to successfully hand off his Senate seat into another Republicans’ hands, unlike so many other ‘08 GOP candidates (Romney, Huckabee, Pataki) retiring this year.

Next most hurt by this will be Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter, who, in a few short weeks, will likely seem to disappear as soon as they appeared. With no real power or say in Congress any longer, these two Representatives will have a small stage to campaign from.

Next most hurt by this will be Sam Brownback. He may benefit slightly in a weird, roundabout way from Rick Santorum’s removal, however. Brownback could never seem to raise his profile as the GOP’s go-to guy for conservative moral issues and religious causes in the shadow of bigger giants like Santorum, but now that Santorum is gone, Brownback might become the GOP’s primary point person in these causes. However, this will be far outweighed by the loss of clout that the Republicans’ failure to retain the Senate majority will entail.

Chuck Hagel might actually benefit from this, as the primary message coming from Congress (and likely the general public) in the next two years will be one of failed policies in Iraq and a dire need for refocusing in our efforts there. However, this too might be neutralized by the minority status that Hagel will get stuck with soon here.

Newt Gingrich will likely benefit from his D.C. outsider image as well as his notable knack for laying out common sense strategies, and his ability to address problems and come up with?feasible solutions and goals, however, this will likely be neutralized by his perceived lack of electability on a national scale, which will become the key issue in 2008 soon.

John McCain will also feel a little pain from this. He was poised to take the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee and he had made a name for himself in Congress as someone from the majority party willing to reach out to the minority, compromise, and come to consensuses, but now he will lose much of the power he enjoyed in such a position as he himself becomes part of the minority party.

BUT, the major threat that the Republican Party will now perceive will be its lack of electability. Hillary Clinton won her re-election by the widest margin of any election this year, approximately 67-31%, and this will probably increase her ‘08 support among many Democrats who feared she would be an electoral gamble in the next presidential election. Thus, electability will become the initial focus of the 2008 presidential election for Republicans, and, as such, both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani will benefit the most from this midterm election. Rudy Giuliani, as a D.C. outsider and someone not running for any office this year, will benefit even more than John McCain in these regards. Expect to see Rudy Giuliani’s stock go up significantly, John McCain’s to rise slightly, and everyone else’s to likely dive noticeably in the next several weeks.

According to Drudge Report, with nearly 100% of the votes tallied, George Allen is in complete deadlock Jim Webb.? Unless Allen wins a hefty margin of the absentee ballots still to be counted, it looks as though Webb will be the next Senator from Virginia.? In this case, the Republican Senate majority now hinges on Missouri (where Republicans are poised to win), Tennessee (where Republicans are poised to win), and Monata (where Democrats are poised to win).? If Republicans can hold on to Missouri and Tennessee, they might just be able to retain their majority by a razor thin margin.

The tally now stands at:

VA SEN [99.26% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,141,753 49.36%
D- WEBB 1,148,750 49.44%

Here’s what CNN has the tally at:

VA SEN [99% IN]
D- WEBB 1,143,144 50%
R- ALLEN 1,140,879 49%
O- PARKER 25,549 1%

Allen just held a televised press conference saying that most of the vote counters had now gone to bed and the counting would resume later on today (Wesnesday) and that the fight isn’t over yet.? This is the Florida 2000 of this year, and I won’t be surprised if it carries on just as long as 2000 did as well.

According to the latest CNN Poll, Rudy Giuliani is the top choice for Republican presidential nominee, clocking in at 29% of the vote, while John McCain comes in at a close 27%.? While Newt Gingrich has remained static since the last CNN Poll taken in August, every other candidate has made significant gains, whilst George Allen has taken a major plunge.? This latest poll also indicates voters are becoming far more aligned with presidential candidates, as the level of Unsure votes has also decreased noticeably.? Please also note, the poll only asks 401 registered voters who at least “lean Republican,” so this survey should be taken with a grain of salt.? The Margin of Error is ? 5.

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Oct. 27-29, 2006. N=401 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ? 5.

“Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . .” Names rotated?

?	10/27-29/06	8/30 - 9/2/06
?	%	%
Rudolph Giuliani	29	32
John McCain	27	21
Newt Gingrich	12	12
Mitt Romney	7	6
Bill Frist	6	4
George Pataki	5	3
George Allen	2	7
Sam Brownback	1	1
Unsure	11	14

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton still leads the pack with 28% of the vote, while newly added Barack Obama clocks in at second place with 17% of the vote.? John Edwards and John Kerry have both made minor gains since August’s poll (12-13% and 9-12%, respectively), while Al Gore has taken a serious plunge (19-13%).? Mark Warner has, of course, been removed.