As reported by Jonathan Martin:

The former New York governor and kinda-sorta presidential explorer will get behind McCain at a Grand Central presser that was supposed to start at 3.

It seems Rudy Giuliani’s lead over his next closest challenger in Republican nomination polls has really taken off, quite similarly to George W. Bush’s after he declared himself a candidate in 2000 (and quite similarly to virtually every other eventual Republican nominee in recent history).? In fact, where once Hillary Clinton was once a sure bet who broadly led her party’s polls in comparison to the tight horserace going on in the GOP, it is now Rudy Giuliani who is the head-and-shoulders-above frontrunner of the two major parties.? His lead over the next closest challenger in the latest Quinnipiac Poll is 22 points, compared to Clinton’s 15 points on her side.? Quinnipiac also puts Rudy at 40%–the second survey to do so in the last?week?(USA Today/Gallup did so as well).

Here’s how the race is shaping up, according to the latest poll:

Quinnipiac University Poll. Feb. 13-19, 2007. N=578 Republican voters nationwide. MoE ? 4.1.
					.
“If the 2008 Republican primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?”
					.
		%	?	?	?	?
	Rudy Giuliani	40	?	?	?	?
	John McCain	18	?	?	?	?
	Newt Gingrich	10	?	?	?	?
	Mitt Romney	7	?	?	?	?
	Duncan Hunter	2	?	?	?	?
	Mike Huckabee	2	?	?	?	?
	Sam Brownback	1	?	?	?	?
	George Pataki	1	?	?	?	?
	Ron Paul	1	?	?	?	?
	Tom Tancredo	1	?	?	?	?
	Tommy Thompson	1	?	?	?	?
	Jim Gilmore	-	?	?	?	?
	Chuck Hagel	-	?	?	?	?
	Other (vol.)	1	?	?	?	?
	Unsure	15

Whilst a mere few weeks ago it was Rudy and McCain that inhabited the upper tier, with Gingrich and Romney jostling in the second tier, and everyone else fighting for scraps, it now appears that McCain is beginning to slide into league with the second tier candidates while Rudy gets closer to laying claim to the title of frontrunner.? McCain’s slide is becoming evident in other recent polls too.? While, in late January, McCain was enjoying big leads over usual third-placer Newt Gingrich (17 pt. lead-Gallup, 10 pt. lead-Rasmussen, 18 pt. lead-ABC/WaPo, 17 pt. lead-CNN, 16 pt. lead-Time), McCain has now begun settling in the teens category, just a few points above Gingrich.? (See the RCP record)

Indeed, Rudy’s lead and McCain’s decline appears to be extraordinarily similar to Bush’s lead and Elizabeth Dole’s decline in the 2000 election cycle polls, as noted not too long ago in another post on this site.? Republicans value consistency and predictability in their nominating process, and those who are the polling frontrunners at this point in the election cycle almost always become the nominee, despite who has the most money or best campaign staff.? There are a lot of factors about 2008 that are different than the past several election years, but there is something to be said for long-established patterns in the GOP.

Rudy’s aura of inevitability also seems to be swelling a bit thanks to his superior general election polling numbers.? The former Mayor seems to have clearly established himself as the best Republican candidate to field in the general election.? Against Hillary Clinton, Rudy gets 3 more points than McCain.? Against Barack Obama, Rudy does better than McCain by 7 points (in fact, Obama ties McCain).? Also, against John Edwards, Rudy once again scores 7 more points for the Republicans than McCain does.

On a sidenote, Mitt Romney also seems to be making gradual improvement in the general election polls.? (Romney went from a devastating 26 point deficit behind Hillary in a December Newsweek poll to a more hopeful 12 point deficit in the lastest Quinnipiac poll):

Quinnipiac University Poll. Feb. 13-19, 2007. N=1,536 registered voters nationwide. MoE ? 2.5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat and [see below] the Republican, for whom would you vote?”
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	Rudolph Giuliani (R)	Hillary Clinton (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	48	43	1	2	5
?	3/2-7/05	44	43	2	1	10
?	12/7-12/04	45	43	3	2	6
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	John McCain (R)	Hillary Clinton (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	46	44	1	3	6
?	11/28 - 12/4/05	44	40	3	3	11
?	3/2-7/05	43	41	2	1	13
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	Mitt Romney (R)	Hillary Clinton (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	37	49	2	4	9
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	Rudolph Giuliani (R)	Barack Obama (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	47	40	1	3	10
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	John McCain (R)	Barack Obama (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	43	43	1	4	10
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	Mitt Romney (R)	Barack Obama (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	29	49	2	5	15
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	Rudolph Giuliani (R)	John Edwards (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	48	40	2	3	8
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	John McCain (R)	John Edwards (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	43	42	2	4	9
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	Mitt Romney (R)	John Edwards (D)	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn’t Vote (vol.)	Unsure
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	2/13-19/07	32	48	3	5	12

So, will Rudy’s aura of inevitability and recognition by the MSM as the Republican frontrunner (if not at least a co-frontrunner with McCain) eventually become plain to all?? Possibly.? Things could still change though, and that’s what keeps the GOP horserace interesting.

“If you find a candidate you want to support, you should do so.”

That’s what George Pataki told a group of his friends and supporters over dinner last night. And while the article linked does say, “Pataki did not rule out running for president in 2008,” what else can you glean from that statement above?

Pataki told the group that he was going to focus on policy instead of the Presidency, and specifically on finding a bipartisan solution to the Iraq war. Good luck with that, Governor. Methinks he is leaving the door open just enough to seek the Unity Party nomination if he wanted to down the road. But cross him off the list for the GOP nomination!

That leaves us with 12 people either running or exploring, and 3 2 that have not announced their intentions yet (Hagel, Gingrich, and Franks).

[UPDATE:Just received word back from one of Tommy Franks' spokesmen who seemed caught off guard by the rumors that Franks would be running for federal office (exact words: "Wow, where'd that come from?"). He said Franks would most likely never run for any political office. So take him out of the running.]

Just in case you’ve been waiting around on pins and needles wondering… George Pataki is trying to make a little noise today by giving a speech at Georgetown where he will announce that he opposes the increase in troop levels in Iraq - setting him alongside Brownback and Hagel as the other ‘08 hopefuls with the same position.

Pataki is still trying to decide whether or not to run for the GOP nomination in 2008, but of course, no one expects him to have a shot - his poll numbers are microscopic, his organization has completely fallen apart, and he hasn’t been seen on the campaign trail for a good long while before this speech today.

The biggest rumors still swirling out there are that he will run as an independent. Hmmm… Hagel/Pataki in ‘08? If one of the Big 3 get the GOP nod, don’t count out the possibility of an anti-war independent ticket that would completely shred the GOP’s hopes of maintaining the White House.

Quinnipiac has come out with a presidential primary poll of New Jersey voters.? Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton hold wide leads for their respective parties’ nominations:

??????????????????????? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
??????????????????????? Tot???? Men???? Wom

Giuliani??????????????? 39%???? 35%???? 43%
McCain????????????????? 21????? 22????? 21
Gingrich??????????????? 11????? 17?????? 5
Romney?????????????????? 5?????? 6?????? 3
Hunter?????????????????? 1?????? 1?????? 1
Brownback??????????????? 1?????? -?????? 1
Thompson???????????????? -?????? -?????? -
Gilmore????????????????? 1?????? 1?????? 1
Hagel??????????????????? 1?????? -?????? 1
Huckabee???????????????? 1?????? 2?????? -
Pataki?????????????????? 3?????? 3?????? 4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)????????? 1?????? 1?????? 1
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL)???????? 3?????? 3?????? 3
DK/NA?????????????????? 13?????? 9????? 17
?

??????????????????????? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
??????????????????????? Tot???? Men???? Wom
???????????????????????????????
Gore??????????????????? 11%???? 16%????? 6%
Kerry??????????????????? 6?????? 8?????? 5
Biden??????????????????? 6????? 10?????? 2
Edwards????????????????? 8????? 10?????? 7
Richardson?????????????? 1?????? 3?????? -
Clinton???????????????? 30????? 21????? 37
Obama?????????????????? 16????? 13????? 18
Dodd???????????????????? -?????? 1?????? -
Clark??????????????????? 2?????? 1?????? 2
Vilsack????????????????? -?????? -?????? -
Kucinich???????????????? -?????? 1?????? -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)????????? 2?????? 2?????? 2
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL)???????? 1?????? 1?????? 2
DK/NA?????????????????? 17????? 15????? 19

Clinton 41%
Giuliani 48%

Clinton 53%
Romney 29%

Clinton 43%
McCain 44%

Obama 39%
McCain 42%

Edwards 39%
McCain 45%

Interestingly enough, in New Jersey, Giuliani’s lead is actually broader than Hillary’s.? I think there’s little doubt whom NJ’s Republicans will be casting their ballots for in 2008.? I’m just continually surprised that Newt Gingrich keeps polling so much better than Mitt Romney given the fact that Newt is avoiding anything related to 2008 like the plague, and Mitt is practically full-out running for President at this point.? Also, considering the close proximity of NJ and Massachusetts, and the not so close proximity of NJ and Georgia, you’d expect Mitt to outdo Newt here.

In the latest Gallup Poll, Rudy Giuliani has slightly widened his lead over John McCain for the Republican nomination.? Rudy now leads McCain 31 to 27%.? The removal of Condoleezza Rice as an option (which, in the crosstabs of past polls has been evidenced to steal numbers from Rudy) probably helped boost Rudy’s numbers this month.

A little lower down, both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are also showing small signs of improvement, with the duo now clocking in at 10 and 7%, respectively.? The rest of the gang hovers in the lower single digits.? It looks as though Romney is now becoming an upper tier candidate in the nation-wide polls.? It’s only a matter of time, in my opinion, before he breaks into the double-digits.

Here’s the full results:

Numbers on the Democratic side of things seem to indicate that John Edwards is making significant strides forward, while both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are stalling a bit.

There are some books that have come out recently and are coming out next year that may help voters learn more about 2008 Republican candidates for President.

Speaker Newt Gingrich has a recent book he has released: Rediscovering God in America: Reflections on the Role of Faith in Our Nation’s History and Future.

Biographers Deborah Hart Strober and Gerald S. Strober have written another account of the life of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani that comes out later next month: Giuliani: Flawed or Flawless? The Oral Biography.

Charlyne Berens has written a new biography of United States Senator Chuck Hagel that also addresses his prospects for President in 2008: Chuck Hagel: Moving Forward.

Governor Mike Huckabee pens a campaign manifesto that comes out next week: From Hope to Higher Ground: 12 Stops to Restoring America’s Greatness.

Senator John McCain will be coming out with a new book next August: Hard Call: Great Decisions and the Extraordinary People Who Made Them.

New York conservative activist George J. Marlin has written a recent book that is critical of the gubernatorial tenure of George Pataki: Squandered Opportunities: New York’s Pataki Years.

Nationally syndicated author and radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt looks at the life and presidential prospects of Governor Mitt Romney in a book due out in early 2007: A Mormon in the White House?: 10 Things Every Conservative Should Know About Mitt Romney.

It will be interesting to see what, if any, additional insights we can obtain about these candidates from the books they and others are and will be releasing.

Pataki’s history makes him history

This column is designed to drive the final railroad spike into the coffin of George Elmer Pataki’s presidential ambitions.

The Empire State’s drowsy Republican governor drifts off January 1 after 12 years in office. He departs about 11 years too late. Pataki is less than just a politician of breathtaking mediocrity; his lack of competence, charisma, and character composes a sickening trifecta that actually has led some local Republicans to look with hope at Governor-elect Elliot Spitzer, a busybody liberal Democrat.

As the curtain creaks down on Pataki’s seemingly endless Broadway run, it is vital to this Republic’s health that his threatened national roadshow go nowhere.

Five years after 9/11, the former World Trade Center remains an excruciating chasm. “Al-Canyon” is a dual testament to al Qaeda’s urban-redesign skills and Pataki’s lack thereof. As the man responsible for transforming Ground Zero from a five-story-deep national tear duct into a symbol of American renaissance, this site only now is emerging from the post-September-11 dark ages. Pataki’s indecision and dithering delayed concrete from being poured for the Freedom Tower’s foundation until November 18 ‘ five years and nine weeks after Islamo-fascists demolished the Twin Towers.

Pataki’s Pit perfectly symbolizes a governorship darkened by profligacy, debt, patronage, and influence peddling. This black hole must not be allowed to swallow Iowa, New Hampshire, or any other primary state.

Pataki, nevertheless, was in the Granite State recently when he told Fox News’ Carl Cameron:

Republicans don’t get elected by going on spending binges that result in a growth of government spending that is not sustainable and more than the people want. I think we did get away in Washington from those principles that Republicans believe in ‘ limited government, controlling spending, cutting taxes.

How rich. If only Pataki had heeded himself.

To his credit, Pataki initially cut taxes.

“Among his leading first-term accomplishments were his $3 billion, 25 percent income-tax cut and a substantial cut in the capital gains tax and inheritance tax,” states the Cato Institute’s “Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors: 2006.” However, in his second term, Pataki “raised the cigarette tax to $1.50 per pack. He raised taxes on net, by more than $3 billion his final term in office.”

As Pataki’s reign of error ends, New York is No. 50 in the Tax Foundation’s State Business Tax Climate Index. It also has America’s 50th best individual state-tax burden, and is the 47th-best place to pay unemployment insurance.

Under Pataki, the state budget has soared 79.5 percent ‘ from $63.3 billion in 1994 to $113.6 billion in 2006. Pataki’s 12-year-average annual spending rate is 4.9 percent.

“Pataki’s budgets grew by almost twice as much as inflation,” says Cato Institute fiscal analyst Stephen Slivinski. In Pataki’s third term, this spending pace zoomed to 8.3 percent. In Cato’s latest gubernatorial report card, Pataki’s financial mismanagement earned him a D.

Pataki has borrowed like a pawnshop patron. He has deepened state-funded debt by 61.3 percent ‘ from $31 billion in 1994 to $50 billion today.

Public-health costs are yet another fiasco. Pataki currently stars in local TV commercials in which he encourages people to apply for Child Health Plus (CHP), a state Medicaid program. Such ads, in which Pataki has appeared since 2002, have worked. Even as just-released Census estimates show New York’s population grew just 0.72 percent between July 1, 2002 and July 1, 2006 (from 19,167,600 to 19,306,183), state Medicaid enrollees accelerated 18.3 percent (from 3,568,627 in June 2002 to 4,222,748 in June 2006). Participants in Family Health Plus, another Medicaid subsidy, rocketed from 2,864 in January 2002 to 563,100 last January ‘ a 19,561 percent ascent. Medicaid is swallowing the state budget like a killer whale devouring a walrus. And yet Pataki’s ads stimulate that whale’s appetite.

Pataki has transformed Medicaid from low-income health care into a recipe for middle-class welfare dependency. Former Democratic Governor Mario Cuomo inaugurated CHP in 1992. A family of four in 1998 could make no more than $35,631 for its kids to qualify. Under Pataki, that ceiling has risen 40.3 percent since then, to $50,000 today.

Even worse, recent estimates show that perhaps 40 percent of New York’s $46.6 billion Medicaid budget (up 93.4 percent from $24.1 billion in 1994) funds questionable and fraudulent claims. This $18.6 billion deadweight loss previously has subsidized such worthies as a Brooklyn dentist who, on one day in 2003, charged Medicaid for 991 procedures. Such news makes Pataki yawn.

Greater insistence on Medicaid’s integrity might have made Pataki collide into his pal, Dennis Rivera, a board member of Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow PUSH Coalition and president of United Healthcare Workers East, Local 1199. This 285,000-member union backed Pataki in 2002. In exchange, Pataki gave Rivera’s then-200,000 New York-State-based members a three-year, $1.8 billion taxpayer-funded pay hike. (Local 1199 has 250,000 NYS-based members today, in addition to workers it represents in Maryland, Massachusetts, and Washington, D.C.)

Pataki’s pay-to-play apparatus is like an old Automat restaurant: cash in, goodies out. In one egregious example, attorney general Spitzer found that, in 2001, the New York State Canal Corporation gave Richard A. Hutchens information that helped him score a non-competitive bid to construct $21.7 million in housing along the Erie Canal. These rights cost him just $30,000 ‘ a potential 72,233 percent return on investment. As it happens, Hutchens gave Pataki’s campaign $8,000. “Everybody makes a political contribution for a purpose,” Hutchens told investigators.

“George Pataki turned the New York GOP into a machine devoted exclusively to the empowerment and enrichment of his coterie,” the New York Post’s Eric Fettman observed. “There’s nothing left that even resembles a genuine infrastructure capable of recruiting candidates with strong statewide appeal.” As Fettman predicted last February 21, this “leaves the party facing likely statewide disaster.”

November 7 indeed was a disaster for the Empire State GOP. This, however, was no surprise. Terrified of being upstaged by potential candidates with actual talent, Pataki instead has boosted hacks, losers, and also-rans.

In 2004, Pataki’s pick ‘ invisible state assemblyman Howard Mills ‘ vanished anew after winning a state-record-low 24 percent against Democratic senator Charles Schumer. This year, Pataki short-circuited a promising U.S. Senate challenge by conservative Manhattan attorney Ed Cox in favor of Westchester prosecutor Jeanine Pirro. She stumbled, switched races, and then garnered just 40 percent against attorney-general-elect Andrew Cuomo. With Cox on blocks, former Yonkers mayor John Spencer captured 31 percent against Democratic senator Hillary Clinton. Such horribly squandered opportunities have denuded Albany of statewide GOP officials. Beyond Michael Bloomberg, the Big Apple’s nominally Republican mayor, elephants approach extinction here, thanks to Pataki’s pachydermocidal “party-building.”

As former Republican National Committeewoman Georgette Mosbacher told the Post’s Fred Dicker: “Our New York party leaders have tried to be everything to everybody, and what’s now happened to us is that we’ve become nothing to everyone.”

Despite all this, Republicans across America have told me, “Rudy Giuliani’s a big liberal, but at least Pataki’s a conservative.” After dropping my drink, I patiently explain that this inverts reality. While Pataki built government like a carpenter on steroids, Giuliani curbed Gotham’s tax burden by $8 billion or 19 percent; cut real, year-on-year outlays in two of his eight budgets; and, by Cato’s calculations, kept annual average spending at 2.9 percent vs. Pataki’s 5.9 percent his last eight years. (Giuliani maintained outlays below his tenure’s 3.6 percent inflation rate.) Giuliani’s production, not Pataki’s, deserves a coast-to-coast tour.

So far, Pataki cannot impress even his neighbors. According to an October 1 Strategic Vision poll, 50 percent of New Jersey Republicans favor Giuliani for president while only 1 percent want Pataki in the White House. What a humiliating performance for the governor of a contiguous state whose citizens have been bathed for 12 years in commercials and news stories on Pataki, courtesy of New York’s media.

“Pataki is prepared to give the nation what he gave New York: out-of-control spending, corruption, political favoritism, and neglect,” warns Hudson Institute president Herbert London, a veteran Gotham conservative activist. “To suggest that the last 12 years of his leadership were a failure would be a grotesque understatement. Pataki is an anchor around the ship of state, drowning residents in debt and special favors.”

Drowning, indeed. George Elmer Pataki’s presidential dreams merit a pair of cement shoes and a non-stop trip to the bed of the Hudson River.

_________________________________________________________________

This article originally appeared in the National Review Online on December 22nd, 2006. It is reprinted here with the author’s permission

Big news this week on the 2008 presidential campaign trail.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson this week has formed an exploratory committee to test the waters for ‘08 support, having filed the papers with the FEC on Wednesday.

The committee delivered paperwork Wednesday to the Federal Election Commission as part of the process, Thompson spokesman Tony Jewell said Friday.

Thompson won’t make a decision about running for president until some time next year, Jewell said.

The former governor and Bush Cabinet secretary was talking politics on Friday with people in Iowa, where precinct caucuses traditionally launch the nominating season.

Former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating also threw out some more ‘08 hints to stir the presidential pot, so to speak, though he seems to be making little of a splash so far. An aide to Keating described his interest in the election as “just sort of thinking about it.” Watch out Rudy and McCain, this guy’s serious!

Former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating is mulling a possible bid for the presidency, voicing concern that the 2008 Republican lineup lacks a Ronald Reagan conservative.

“He’s kicked the idea around in his head,” Dan Mahoney, an aide to Keating, said Friday. “He’s just sort of thinking about it.”

Keating, 62, a former FBI agent and prosecutor, served as Oklahoma governor from 1994-2002 and was in charge of the state during the deadly Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. He was a high-ranking official in the Justice and Treasury departments during the Reagan administration and considered a possible vice presidential choice by George W. Bush in 2000.

In June 2003, Keating resigned as head of a panel examining the U.S. Roman Catholic hierarchy’s efforts to rid the priesthood of sexual molesters. Keating was highly critical of the bishops’ cooperation and compared the secretive church hierarchy to the Mafia.

Mahoney said that after the defeat of Republican Sen. George Allen of Virginia last month, Keating was concerned about the absence of a “Reagan-like conservative in the mix” of presidential candidates. Several of the White House GOP hopefuls ‘ Sens. John McCain and Sam Brownback, and Gov. Mitt Romney ‘ have either compared themselves to Reagan or highlighted his record.

Does anyone else find it funny that just days after outgoing New York Governor George Pataki held a meeting of former Governors, which included Thompson and Keating, to try to gauge and gather support for a presidential run, both Thompson and Keating start gearing up their possible presidential runs more than ever before? I’m sensing neither Tommy nor Frank were much impressed with what they saw at that meeting with Pataki. Hmm… Maybe ol’ Georgey should be reading between the lines?

On the Democrat side of things, one of the most prominent moderate/centrist potential contenders of the race has withdrawn. Indiana’s Democratic former Governor-turned-Senator Evan Bayh took his name out of the running, a mere week or two after creating an exploratory committee. As moderates like Warner and Bayh continue drop out of the race, it will probably help consolidate centrist-Democrat support around a single candidate. Outgoing Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is by far the most centrist Democratic candidate, and might help consolidate that DLC-esque support around himself a la Bill Clinton, though New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson also has a bi-partisan streak, which, coupled with his great foreign policy experience, might also make him a top tier contender. FOX News gives the lowdown on Bayh:

FOX News has learned that Bayh raised more than $10 million, making him compettive with other top possible Democratic presidential candidates like New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. However, future fundraising considerations may have been a factor as it is believed that Clinton will get a large share of financial support from party backers in 2007.

Personality issues may have been a concern as well as some insiders told FOX News that Bayh showed very little “fire in the belly” as a presidential prospect. Some of his supporters have acknowledged that his relaxed demeanor and calm tone lacked presidential charisma, even though Bayh has been re-elected by large margins in a red state over the past 20 years.

A self -proclaimed security democrat, Bayh is the second high-profile moderate to remove his name from consideration for the 2008 presidential nomination after former Virginia Governor Mark Warner announced his decision not to enter the race due to family reasons earlier this year.

According to the latest CNN presidential nomination poll, the level of uncertainty regarding presidential candidates has skyrocketed as the field shifts in the months before the campaign-proper begins.? In the months leading up to November, the amount of survey respondents who claimed to be “Unsure” regarding their presidential nominee pick was slowly being whittled away, and by mid-November, only 8% of respondents didn’t have a guy to stand behind.

As of December, a whopping 23% of respondents have shifted into the Unsure column, with the only candidate clearly benefiting from this being Newt Gingrich.? Every other major candidate slips noticeably in the poll as a handful of their supporters go neutral for now.? Even Mitt Romney, who had been making steady gains consistently throughout the past several months, slips from 9% support to 6%, back where he once was again in August.

John McCain seems to have lost the most backers since last month, and, as a result, Rudy Giuliani remains on top of the heap once again.

Here’s the results:

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Dec. 5-7, 2006. N=322 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ? 5.5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . .” Names rotated
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	12/5-7/06	11/17-19/06	10/27-29/06	8/30 - 9/2/06	?
?	?	%	%	%	%	?
?	Rudolph Giuliani	29	33	29	32	?
?	John McCain	24	30	27	21	?
?	Newt Gingrich	13	9	12	12	?
?	Mitt Romney	6	9	7	6	?
?	Sam Brownback	2	2	1	1	?
?	George Pataki	2	1	5	3	?
?	Tommy Thompson	2	3	n/a	n/a	?
?	Duncan Hunter	1	2	n/a	n/a	?
?	Unsure	23	8	11	14	?
?	Bill Frist	n/a	3	6	4	?
?	George Allen	n/a	n/a	2	7

On the Democratic side, the Unsures also rise considerably, from 4% in November to a current 10%.? Hillary is the only one who makes gains as a result, inching forward to capture 37% of the Democratic vote.? John Edwards seems to have suffered the most, falling from 14% to 9%.? Barack Obama and Al Gore retain all their support from last month, remaining in distant second and third places, respectively.

Outgoing New York Governor George Pataki will, on Sunday, host a gathering of former United States governors, which, surprisingly and yet not surprisingly, includes two other potential presidential candidates–former OK Gov. Frank Keating and former WI Gov. Tommy Thompson.? Not only this, but Pataki will also be holding the event in New York City, specifically–potential rival Rudy Giuliani’s home turf.? Perhaps it’s the old adage of “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”

AP reports:

A top aide to New York Governor George Pataki says Pataki plans to host a gathering of former Republican governors this weekend to discuss the direction of the party.Pataki is stepping down at the end of the year and eyeing a possible 2008 run for the White House.

Pataki spokesman David Catalfamo says at least nine former governors who were in office when Pataki was first elected in 1994, or who also won election that year, will meet in New York City and may stage some sort of public event to discuss their talks.

Joining Pataki in New York City on Sunday will be former governors Frank Keating of Oklahoma, David Beasley of South Carolina, Terry Branstad of Iowa, John Engler of Michigan, Don Sundquist of Tennessee, Tommy Thompson of Illinois, Bill Weld of Massachusetts, Christie Todd Whitman of New Jersey and Bill Graves of Kansas.

This meeting of the minds may be one of Pataki’s last hurrahs in regard to his 2008 presidential prospects.? If his severe lack of support for a run is still so clearly evidenced by early 2007, I don’t see any other option for him but to drop out.

PS: (Despite what the article claims, Tommy Thompson was not the Governor of Illinois.)

The survey of Washington, D.C. insiders (36 Democrat members of Congress and 73 Democrat insiders; 34 Republican members of Congress and 77 insiders) by National Journal resulted in the following rankings (and complete numbers are only available to subscribers):

Republicans???????? Most Likely To Be Nominated?????Second Most Likely To Be Nominated

1. John McCain??????????????????????73%??????????????????????????????????????????????23%

2. Mitt Romney??????????????????????18%????????????????????????????????????????????? 52%

3. Rudy Giuliani???????????????????????5%??????????????????????????????????????????????20%

4. Newt Gingrich

5. Mike Huckabee

6. George Pataki

7. Chuck Hagel

8. Condi Rice

9. Sam Brownback

10. Bill Frist

Democrats

1. Hillary Clinton?????????????????

2. Barack Obama

3. John Edwards

4. Al Gore

5. Evan Bayh

6. Tom Vilsack

7. Bill Richardson

8. Joe Biden

9. Wesley Clark

10. Chris Dodd

Of course members of Congress and insiders are going to be strongly influenced by which candidates have put together organizations and lobbied them for support. So it is not surprising that those candidates who are furthest along in hiring and setting up meetings with congressional members are doing the best in these predictive rankings.

But it is interesting to also note that clearly Washington, D.C. insiders do not believe the current polling numbers for Mayor Rudy Giuliani?can be sustained in the heat of a primary campaign. The good news for Mayor Giuliani is how often Washington, D.C. insiders get it wrong.

For all candidates on both sides of the aisle, however, Washington, D.C. insider expectations are going to impact their ability to raise funds among traditional donor types (though among Internet givers it is an entirely different game, based largely on how much buzz the candidate is generating), though?Mayor Giuliani and Speaker Gingrich have the star power to both raise big money and run?non-traditional, outsider campaigns at the same time (which may be very effective in the 2008 cycle).

The latest presidential survey conducted by WNBC/Marist shows Rudy Giuliani with?a very slight lead over John McCain for the 2008 Republican nomination.? Condoleezza Rice, who is still included in Marist’s poll, has been shown by other pollsters to split Rudy’s support, so we can assume, since Condi is very likely not to go back on her promise to forgoe a White House run, that much of her support will go to Giuliani, meaning Rudy’s lead over McCain is probably a bit higher than what is currently displayed:

WNBC/Marist Poll. Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 2006. N=967 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican leaners. MoE ? 5.
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
“If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?”
?	?	?	?	?	.	?
?	?	11/27 - 12/3/06	9/18-20/06	2/13-15/06	10/12-13 & 17/05	2/14-16/05
?	?	%	%	%	%	%
?	Rudy Giuliani	24	23	22	21	25
?	John McCain	23	15	22	19	21
?	Condoleezza Rice	15	20	22	21	14
?	Newt Gingrich	8	7	5	5	5
?	Mitt Romney	4	4	4	-	1
?	Bill Frist	3	4	2	2	3
?	Chuck Hagel	2	-	1	1	-
?	Tommy Thompson	1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Mike Huckabee	1	-	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Tom Tancredo	1	1	1	1	n/a
?	George Pataki	1	2	2	2	1
?	Sam Brownback	-	1	-	2	n/a
?	Duncan Hunter	-	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
?	Unsure	17	21	17	17	20
?	George Allen	n/a	2	2