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Many conservatives, notably the Club for Growth, are not fond of Mike Huckabee because they see him as too liberal on economic issues. He did raise taxes and increase spending as Governor. However, a new poll by Public Policy Polling indicates that he, along with Mitt Romney, are more popular with the public than Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich. Gingrich is no surprise. He was never popular with the general public when he was Speaker except at the very beginning, but he was always popular with the base. Palin seems to have blown her opportunity to develop a good reputation with the public.
Huckabee has a net favorability rating of +8. Romney is not far behind at +5. Palin has a -7, and Gingrich has a -8. Palin only a -10 with women, but she is still in negative territory at a -3 with men. Huckabee also does the best against Obama though all four candidates trail. Obama is more popular than any GOP contender with a +12 favorability. It should be noted that Obama is still in his first year which is typically a honeymoon phase. However, Huckabee manages to keep Obama under the magic 50% mark, trailing him 49-42. Romney trails 50-39. Palin trails 53-41, and Gingrich is behind 52-39. Is a ticket led by Mike Huckabee the key to victory in 2012?
Are we ready to admit yet that Pat Toomey can’t win and that we should draft and nominate Tom Ridge instead?:
Quinnipiac: 2010 Pennsylvania General Election
Arlen Specter (D) – 53%
Pat Toomey (R) – 33%Arlen Specter (D) – 46%
Tom Ridge (R) – 43%
Notes from Quinnipiac:
“A former Republican Senator running as a Democrat against a popular former Republican governor seeking to make a political comeback would be a battle royal in Pennsylvania,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“Gov. Tom Ridge is probably the only political figure in Pennsylvania who could give Sen. Arlen Specter a run for his money. But even if he gets a strong challenge from a Republican, Specter is still better off for having changed parties because he seemed headed to certain defeat had he stayed a Republican and faced Toomey in a primary.
“Ridge is popular, but Specter is now lined up with the powerful Democratic machine run by Gov. Ed Rendell and can count on a popular President Barack Obama coming to campaign for him if needed. Significantly, Specter leads both Toomey and Ridge by more than 20 points among union households even though the Senator says he will vote against the most important labor legislation in Congress this year,” Richards added.
Pennsylvania voters approve 56 – 36 percent, including 81 – 10 percent among Democrats, of the job Specter is doing. By a 52 – 34 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Specter. Toomey gets a 20 – 13 percent favorability, but 67 percent don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Ridge gets a 55 – 19 percent favorability.
Voters say 49 – 41 percent that Specter deserves to be reelected and say 60 – 37 percent that he is not too old to serve another six-year U.S. Senate term. Even voters 18 to 34 years old say 67 – 31 percent that Specter is not too old.
A Public Policy Polling survey came out this week indicating that Mike Huckabee would fare best against Barack Obama (Trailing by only 7) when compared to double digits for Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich. One poll doesn’t tell you a lot. Three polls, even if there are flaws in them, can indicate a pattern. So, let’s analyze the results of this poll and look at the CNN Poll from December as well as that from February. All 3 polls included Huckabee, Romney, and Palin. What do we learn?
1) Mike Huckabee: Huckabee comes in trailing a President who’s been in office less than 100 days by seven points nearly 3 years before the election in the PPP poll. His numbers among the Conservatives show a 56-18% approval to disapproval ratio. This is after being pilloried by Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and National Review. He has survived an impressive barrage of verbal vitriol. Huckabee’s strong poll numbers in this poll go along with his December showing of 65% likely to support him as the Republican nominee (vs. 67% for Palin and 61% for Romney.) and a strong second behind Sarah Palin in February, 2009.
2) Mitt Romney: Romney’s weakness and strength really shows in all 3 polls. All three polls indicate Romney as a strong Republican leader, head and shoulders above 80% of the potential candidates. Unfortunately, even with a media advantage among mainstream conservatives, he’s not leading in any poll. He finishes 2nd best against Obama., but 3rd in the GOP trial heat in February, and has the 3rd most level of enthusiasm for a bid. Romney is widely being painted as a frontrunner, and frontrunning establishment campaigns always lose steam.
In 1996, Bob Dole was the frontrunner far and away. He won Iowa by 2 points and lost New Hampshire. George W. Bush lost New Hampshire, and Rudy Giuliani fell into oblivion. These early polls also seem to be hurting Romney’s case on electability. The difference between Huckabee and Romney on favorability among moderates is minuscule. In essence, he’s only a frontrunner in name only with his only advantage being cash. That’s a bad position to be in if you’re the establishment frontrunner.
3) Sarah Palin: Actually came out of this poll with a slight 49-42% Negative rating and trailed President Obama 53-41%. What’s noticeable in the poll is that Palin has a huge gender gap of 13 points, as well as an extremely strong rating from Conservatives with a 67% favorable rating. Palin ended up at the top of both the December and February CNN polls.
The data suggests two things. First of all, I think we have to say the love for Sarah Palin among conservatives is sustained and I haven’t seen any data that suggests otherwise. I would go as far as to say that if she commits early to a campaign, there’s simply no stopping her in getting the GOP nomination provided that she understands she has to earn victories in early primaries. She won’t win on adulation at a nationwide level in Iowa and New Hampshire.
She has two related problems. First, is that her life has become a soap opera and the media focus has been on some salacious details which makes it harder for her to be taken seriously.
The second thing we have to acknowledge is the role of female sexism against women. I think men have a higher opinion of Palin because they’re less likely to make judgments about her parenting. Women, on the other hand, would seem to be looking at various circumstances such as her having five children and working (even though by the time she runs again, she’ll only have 3 children at home with one of those three being 17 years old).
The question that must be begged is whether this makes Palin unelectable. I think under the right circumstances she could win. She has the heart of the Republican base, so I think she can win the nomination and if, in a general election, the conditions of the nation dictate a change in power, she will win. If the circumstances dictate a change at the top, voters are not likely to look at peripheral issues.
The one comparison I can make is to Hillary Clinton who was very unlikable and had a lot of people who didn’t want her to be President came around. She was a very polarizing figure who nearly won the Presidency and may have done better than Obama in the fall. If you doubt that political figures can change their image, look no further than Hillary Clinton who became viewed publicly as the champion of traditional values and gun rights.
Three and a half years is a long time, and I think Palin still has plenty of room to right the ship.
4) Newt Gingrich: The best number for him in this poll was the 20% who couldn’t form an opinion on him which means a lot of people have forgotten the Gingrich Speakership. That’s both good and bad for Gingrich as many people dont remember his mis-steps. Unfortunately, a great many people just plain don’t remember Gingrich. Gingrich has high favorables among conservatives, but whether those favorables will translate into Presidential victory remains iffy given his lack of legislative experience and charisma.
From Gawker, as per Campaign Spot. These actually look really good, given the history of exit polls tending to lean leftward:
Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Virginia: Obama +2
North Carolina: McCain +2
Florida: Obama +1
Ohio: Obama +1
Somehow, Drudge has an Obama +15 in PA teaser on his site, but with no link. Drudge also says OH, IN, FL are too close to call, and the exits show McCain keeping AZ.
Reuters/Zogby Battleground Surveys
Virginia
- Barack Obama 51.7% (50.7%)
- John McCain 45.3% (44.6%)
- Other/Not sure 3.0% (4.7%)
Ohio
- Barack Obama 49.4% (50.2%)
- John McCain 47.4% (43.9%)
- Other/Not sure 3.2% (5.9%)
Nevada
- Barack Obama 53.2% (50.7%)
- John McCain 42.4% (42.9%)
- Other/Not sure 4.4% (6.4%)
Missouri
- John McCain 48.8% (45.7%)
- Barack Obama 48.8% (47.4%)
- Other/Not sure 2.4% (6.9%)
North Carolina
- John McCain 49.5% (49.3%)
- Barack Obama 49.1% (47.7%)
- Other/Not sure 0.4% (3.1%)
Florida
- Barack Obama 49.2% (47.5%)
- John McCain 48.0% (46.2%)
- Other/Not sure 2.8% (6.4%)
Indiana
- John McCain 50.4% (49.1%)
- Barack Obama 45.1% (43.9%)
- Other/Not sure 4.5% (7.0%)
Pennsylvania
- Barack Obama 51.2% (53.7%)
- John McCain 41.4% (40.0%)
- Other/Not sure 7.4% (6.3%)
Surveys were conducted October 31 – November 3. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the polls conducted October 30 – November 2 are in parentheses.
SurveyUSA Pennsylvania General Election
- Barack Obama 52% (53%)
- John McCain 43% (41%)
Survey of 657 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 3. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 52% (D), 39% (R), 9% (I). Results from the poll conducted October 21-22 are in parentheses.
SurveyUSA Florida General Election
- Barack Obama 50% (47%)
- John McCain 47% (49%)
Survey of 691 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 3. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 43% (R); 42% (D); 15% (I). Results from the poll conducted October 16 are in parentheses.
National
- Rasmussen Tracking
- IBD/TIPP Tracking
- George Washington/Battleground Tracking
- Gallup Tracking
- Diageo/Hotline Tracking
- Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Tracking
- Washington Post-ABC News
- CBS News
- Ipsos/McClatchy
- Wall Street Journal/NBC News
- Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
- Marist
- Reuters/Zogby Battleground States
Pennsylvania
Ohio
- Fox News/Rasmussen
- SurveyUSA
- Quinnipiac
- University of Cincinnati
- Public Policy Polling (D)
- Strategic Vision (R)
Florida
North Carolina
Georgia
Virginia
Missouri
Colorado
Nevada
Montana
Indiana
Public Policy Polling (D)
Fox News/Rasmussen Ohio General Election
- John McCain 49% (45%)
- Barack Obama 49% (49%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- John McCain 57% (56%) / 39% (41%) [+18%]
- Barack Obama 50% (52%) / 48% (45%) [+2%]
Fox News/Rasmussen Colorado General Election
- Barack Obama 51% (50%)
- John McCain 47% (46%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- John McCain 57% (54%) / 41% (46%) [+16%]
- Barack Obama 54% (55%) / 45% (44%) [+9%]
Fox News/Rasmussen Florida General Election
- John McCain 50% (47%)
- Barack Obama 49% (51%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- John McCain 60% (57%) / 39% (41%) [+21%]
- Barack Obama 52% (55%) / 48% (45%) [+4%]
Fox News/Rasmussen Missouri General Election
- John McCain 49% (47%)
- Barack Obama 49% (48%)
- Undecided 2%
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- John McCain 56% (57%) / 43% (40%) [+13%]
- Barack Obama 54% (53%) / 45% (47%) [+9%]
Fox News/Rasmussen North Carolina General Election
- John McCain 50% (48%)
- Barack Obama 49% (50%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- John McCain 55% (56%) / 43% (43%) [+12%]
- Barack Obama 53% (53%) / 46% (46%) [+7%]
Rasmussen Virginia General Election
- Barack Obama 51% (51%)
- John McCain 47% (47%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 57% (55%) / 43% (44%) [+14%]
- Barack Obama 55% (55%) / 43% (44%) [+12%]
Quinnipiac Pennsylvania General Election
- Barack Obama 52% (53%)
- John McCain 42% (41%)
- Undecided 4% (5%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- Barack Obama 58% (59%) / 35% (33%) [+23%]
- Joe Biden 52% (49%) / 32% (29%) [+20%]
- John McCain 53% (50%) / 42% (43%) [+11%]
- Sarah Palin 43% (38%) / 44% (43%) [-1%]
Quinnipiac Ohio General Election
- Barack Obama 50% (51%)
- John McCain 43% (42%)
- Undecided 6% (7%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- Barack Obama 55% (55%) / 38% (34%) [+17%]
- Joe Biden 48% (47%) / 33% (28%) [+15%]
- John McCain 51% (51%) / 42% (42%) [+9%]
- Sarah Palin 41% (41%) / 45% (40%) [-4%]
Morning Call/Muhlenberg Pennsylvania General Election
- Barack Obama 52%
- John McCain 46%
- Undecided 2%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Joe Biden 51% / 30% (+21%)
- Barack Obama 50% / 36% (+14%)
- John McCain 44% / 42% (+2%)
- Sarah Palin 42% / 46% (-4%)
Survey of 617 likely voters was conducted October 29 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 51% (D); 41% (R); 6% (I).
University of Cincinnati Ohio General Election
- Barack Obama/Joe Biden 51.5% (49%)
- John McCain/Sarah Palin 45.7% (46%)
- Other 2.8%
Survey of 1,308 likely voters was conducted October 29 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 18-22 are in parentheses.
Reuters/Zogby Battleground Surveys
Virginia
- Barack Obama 50.7% (52.0%)
- John McCain 44.6% (44.8%)
- Other/Not sure 4.7% (3.2%)
Ohio
- Barack Obama 50.2% (49.7%)
- John McCain 43.9% (45.1%)
- Other/Not sure 5.9% (5.3%)
Nevada
- Barack Obama 50.7% (48.2%)
- John McCain 42.9% (44.0%)
- Other/Not sure 6.4% (7.8%)
Missouri
- Barack Obama 47.4% (48.2%)
- John McCain 45.7% (45.7%)
- Other/Not sure 6.9% (6.2%)
North Carolina
- John McCain 49.3% (46.4%)
- Barack Obama 47.7% (49.7%)
- Other/Not sure 3.1% (3.9%)
Florida
- Barack Obama 47.5% (49.7%)
- John McCain 46.2% (46.4%)
- Other/Not sure 6.4% (3.9%)
Indiana
- John McCain 49.1% (50.2%)
- Barack Obama 43.9% (44.0%)
- Other/Not sure 7.0% (5.8%)
Pennsylvania
- Barack Obama 53.7%
- John McCain 40.0%
- Other/Not sure 6.3%
Surveys were conducted October 30 – November 2. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the polls conducted October 23-26 are in parentheses.
Public Policy Polling (D) Pennsylvania General Election
- Barack Obama 53%
- John McCain 45%
- Undecided 2%
Survey of 1,529 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/-2.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 51% (D); 42% (R); 7% (I).
Public Policy Polling (D) Georgia General Election
- John McCain 50%
- Barack Obama 48%
- Bob Barr 2%
Survey of 1,253 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% (D); 41% (R); 17% (I).
Public Policy Polling (D) Montana General Election
- Barack Obama 48%
- John McCain 47%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Undecided 1%
Survey of 2,734 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/-1.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: (R) 35%; (D) 34%; (I) 31%.
Public Policy Polling (D) North Carolina General Election
- Barack Obama 50% (49%)
- John McCain 49% (48%)
- Undecided 1% (2%)
Survey of 2,100 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/-2.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: (D) 49%; (R) 38%; (I) 13%. Results from the poll conducted October 25-26 are in parentheses.
PPP (D) Florida General Election
- Barack Obama 50% (48%)
- John McCain 48% (47%)
- Undecided 2% (5%)
Survey of 1,717 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 44% (D); 41% (R); 14% (I). Results from the poll conducted October 16-19 are in parentheses.
- Barack Obama 50% (51%)
- John McCain 48% (44%)
- Undecided 2% (5%)
Survey of 1,208 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 44% (D); 38% (R); 18% (I). Results from the poll conducted October 21-23 are in parentheses.
SurveyUSA Minnesota General Election
- Barack Obama 49% (50%)
- John McCain 46% (44%)
- Other 3% (4%)
- Undecided 2% (3%)
Senate Race
- Norm Coleman 44%
- Al Franken 39%
- Dean Barkley 16%
Survey of 669 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 39% (D); 32% (R); 25% (I). Results from the poll conducted October 16-18 are in parentheses.
PPP (D) Virginia General Election
- Barack Obama 52% (51%)
- John McCain 46% (43%)
- Undecided 2% (6%)
Survey of 1,557 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 40% (D); 35% (R); 25% (I). Results from the poll conducted October 6-7 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen Pennsylvania General Election
- Barack Obama 52% (51%)
- John McCain 46% (47%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 56% (54%) / 42% (45%) [+14%]
- John McCain 54% (55%) / 45% (45%) [+9%]
Survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted November 1. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 30 are in parentheses.
SurveyUSA Virginia General Election
- Barack Obama 50% (52%)
- John McCain 46% (43%)
Survey of 672 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 38% (D); 36% (R); 24% (I). Results from the poll conducted October 25-26 are in parentheses.
Mason-Dixon Missouri General Election
- John McCain 47% (46%)
- Barack Obama 46% (45%)
Survey of 625 Likely Voters was conducted October 28-29. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 22-23 are in parentheses.
