Many conservatives, notably the Club for Growth, are not fond of Mike Huckabee because they see him as too liberal on economic issues.  He did raise taxes and increase spending as Governor.  However, a new poll by Public Policy Polling indicates that he, along with Mitt Romney, are more popular with the public than Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich.  Gingrich is no surprise.  He was never popular with the general public when he was Speaker except at the very beginning, but he was always popular with the base.  Palin seems to have blown her opportunity to develop a good reputation with the public. 

     Huckabee has a net favorability rating of +8.  Romney is not far behind at +5.  Palin has a -7, and Gingrich has a -8.  Palin only a -10 with women, but she is still in negative territory at a -3 with men.  Huckabee also does the best against Obama though all four candidates trail.  Obama is more popular than any GOP contender with a +12 favorability.  It should be noted that Obama is still in his first year which is typically a honeymoon phase.  However, Huckabee manages to keep Obama under the magic 50% mark, trailing him 49-42.  Romney trails 50-39.  Palin trails 53-41, and Gingrich is behind 52-39.  Is a ticket led by Mike Huckabee the key to victory in 2012?

PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mike Huckabee 42%

 

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 39%

 

• Barack Obama 53%
• Sarah Palin 41%

 

• Barack Obama 52%
• Newt Gingrich 39%

(more…)

A more comprehensive look at why, from my perspective, we lost so badly will be coming. For now, here’s some interesting notes from the raw data of Tuesday night:

• Obama and McCain both split the vote of their registered parties 90/10 (that is, McCain took 90% of Republicans and Obama took 90% of Democrats). So much for a division in either party.
• The difference, of course, lies in the party breakdown (39/32/29… +7 for Dems) and in the Independent split (52-44 for Obama). (Rasmussen, who surmised the party breakdown would be Dem +6.5 nailed the final result and was once again the most accurate pollster. Remember that going into 2012 — Rasmussen is the gold standard. Gallup was once again proven to be complete garbage, as it was in 2004 and 2006.)
• People who voted for Bush last time split 80-20, with only 80% of them voting for McCain. As Jim Geraghty notes, it’s a little difficult to win when you bleed 20% of your previous party support. Comparatively, Obama won 90% of the Kerry voters from 2004.
• Self-described Conservatives made up 35% of the voting population (while self-described liberals comprised only 22%), but a full 20% of conservatives voted for Obama — one piece of evidence showing this was not an election based on ideology (as I will explore later). Comparatively, only 9% of liberals voted for McCain.
• Only 50% of voters think Obama had the experience necessary to be President. Of the people who said he did not have the experience necessary to be President, 12% still voted for him.
• 56% of voters opposed the $700 billion bailout package… (as I continue to do…)
• Among those who said McCain’s choice of Palin as his running mate was important to them (60% of voters), McCain won 56-43… a net of +13% among those voters from choosing Palin.

There you have it – the inner workings of the electorate two days ago.

Fordham University Department of Political Science: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide vote shares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.

Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN/Opinion Research (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Washington Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/NY Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Initial Report: November 5, 2008

From Gawker, as per Campaign Spot. These actually look really good, given the history of exit polls tending to lean leftward:

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Virginia: Obama +2
North Carolina: McCain +2
Florida: Obama +1
Ohio: Obama +1

Somehow, Drudge has an Obama +15 in PA teaser on his site, but with no link. Drudge also says OH, IN, FL are too close to call, and the exits show McCain keeping AZ.

Battleground Vote Projections

Tarrance Projection

• Barack Obama 50.2%
• John McCain 48.3%
• Bob Barr 0.9%
• Ralph Nader 0.6%

Lake Projection

• Barack Obama 51.5%
• John McCain 46.5%
• Bob Barr 1.0%
• Ralph Nader 1.0%

Final Marist General Election

• Barack Obama 52% (53%)
• John McCain 43% (44%)
• Other 3% (1%)
• Undecided 2% (2%)

Survey of 804 likely voters was conducted November 3. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 2 are in parentheses.

Final Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (11/4)

• Barack Obama 52%
• John McCain 46%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Barack Obama 56% / 43% (+13%)
• John McCain 55% / 44% (+11%)

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

For polling data released during the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

Has Mac lost his closing touch?

Although CBS and Washington Post polling do not back this up, four other polls do:

CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby-

11/3- Obama 50.9%, McCain 43.8%, Undecided 5.3%
11/4- Obama 54.1%, 42.7%, Undecided 3.1%

IBD/TIPP

11/3- Obama 47.5%, 43.0%, Undecided 9.5%
11/4- Obama 51.5%, 44.3%, Undecided 4.2%

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics

October 28-29- Obama 47%, McCain 44%, Undecided 6%
November 1-2- Obama 50%, McCain 43%, Undecided 5%

Marist

October 29- Obama 50%, McCain 43%, Undecided 4%
November 2- Obama 53%, McCain 44%, Undecided 2%

Despite possible mishaps with party identification weighting, the trend seems widespread. Unless every poll is drastically wrong, it would be nearly impossible for McCain to win the popular vote. Oddly enough, we have seen some key battleground states tighten in the final days (Ohio and Virginia).

Final IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 51.5%
• John McCain 44.3%
• Other 4.2%

Survey of 981 likely voters was conducted November 1-3. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Final Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 54.1%
• John McCain 42.7%
• Others/Not sure 3.1%

Survey of 1,226 likely voters was conducted November 1-3. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

(more…)

National

• Rasmussen Tracking
• IBD/TIPP Tracking
• George Washington/Battleground Tracking
• Gallup Tracking
• Diageo/Hotline Tracking
• Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Tracking
• Washington Post-ABC News
• CBS News
• Ipsos/McClatchy
• Wall Street Journal/NBC News
• Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
• Marist
• Reuters/Zogby Battleground States

Pennsylvania

• Quinnipiac
• Morning Call/Muhlenberg
• Public Policy Polling (D)
• Strategic Vision (R)

Ohio

• Fox News/Rasmussen
• SurveyUSA
• Quinnipiac
• University of Cincinnati
• Public Policy Polling (D)
• Strategic Vision (R)

Florida

• Fox News/Rasmussen
• Quinnipiac
• Public Policy Polling (D)
• Strategic Vision (R)

North Carolina

• Fox News/Rasmussen
• SurveyUSA
• Public Policy Polling (D)

Georgia

• SurveyUSA
• InsiderAdvantage
• Public Policy Polling (D)
• Strategic Vision (R)

Virginia

• Fox News/Rasmussen
• Public Policy Polling (D)

Missouri

• Fox News/Rasmussen
• SurveyUSA

Colorado

• Fox News/Rasmussen

Nevada

• Public Policy Polling (D)

Montana

• Public Policy Polling (D)

Indiana

Public Policy Polling (D)

IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 47.5%
• John McCain 43.0%
• Undecided 9.5%

Survey of 1,014 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Ipsos/McClatchy General Election

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 53% (48%)
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 46% (42%)

Survey of 760 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 23-27 are in parentheses.

(more…)

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (11/3)

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 53%
• John McCain 40%

Likely Voters (Expanded)

• Barack Obama 53%
• John McCain 42%

Likely Voters (Traditional)

• Barack Obama 53%
• John McCain 42%

Survey of of 2,824 registered voters, including 2,458 likely voters (expanded model), and 2,472 likely voters (traditional model) was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points. Party ID breakdown (among likely voters): 39% (D); 29% (R); 31% (I).

(more…)

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics General Election

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 50% (47%)
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 43% (44%)
• Undecided 5% (6%)

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• Barack Obama 59% (56%) / 38% (40%) [+21%]
• Joe Biden 56% (55%) / 37% (37%) [+19%]
• John McCain 56% (54%) / 40% (42%) [+16%]
• Sarah Palin 45% (49%) / 49% (46%) [-4%]

(more…)

Marist General Election

• Barack Obama 53% (50%)
• John McCain 44% (43%)
• Undecided 2% (4%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 57% / 38% (+19%)
• Barack Obama 56% / 37% (+19%)
• Joe Biden 53% / 35% (+18%)
• Sarah Palin 46% / 46% (0%)

Survey of 635 likely voters was conducted November 2. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 29 are in parentheses.

Wall Street Journal/NBC News General Election

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 51% (52%)
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 43% (42%)

Positive / Negative [Net]

• Barack Obama 56% (57%) / 35% (34%) [+21%]
• Joe Biden 50% (52%) / 30% (27%) [+20%]
• John McCain 47% (44%) / 39% (40%) [+8%]
• Sarah Palin 39% (38%) / 48% (48%) [-9%]

(more…)

GW/Battleground Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 50%
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 44%
• Undecided 6%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 29-30, November 2.

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 50%
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 45%
• Undecided 5%

Survey of 887 likely voters was conducted October 31 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% (D); 36% (R); 18% (I).

(more…)

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (11/3)

• Barack Obama 52%
• John McCain 46%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Barack Obama 56% / 43% (+13%)
• John McCain 53% / 45% (+8%)

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

For polling data released during the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 50.9%
• John McCain 43.8%
• Others/Not sure 5.3%

Survey of 1,205 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 2. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

(more…)

ABC News/Washington Post General Election

• Barack Obama 54%
• John McCain 43%

(more…)

Pew Research General Election

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 49% (53%)
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 42% (38%)
• Undecided 7% (7%)

(more…)

CNN/Opinion Research General Election

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 53% (51%)
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 46% (46%)

Survey of 714 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 17-19 are in parentheses.

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (11/2)

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 52%
• John McCain 41%

Likely Voters (Expanded)

• Barack Obama 52%
• John McCain 43%

Likely Voters (Traditional)

• Barack Obama 51%
• John McCain 43%

Survey of of 2,855 registered voters, including 2,475 likely voters (expanded model), and 2,503 likely voters (traditional model) was conducted October 30 – November 1. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 46.7%
• John McCain 44.6%
• Undecided 8.7%

Survey of 844 likely voters was conducted October 29 – November 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 50%
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 45%
• Undecided 5%

Survey of 882 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (11/2)

• Barack Obama 51%
• John McCain 46%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Barack Obama 55% / 43% (+12%)
• John McCain 53% / 46% (+7%)

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

For polling data released during the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

(more…)

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 49.5%
• John McCain 43.8%
• Others/Not sure 6.7%

Survey of 1,203 likely voters was conducted October 30 – November 1. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

(more…)