Gallup Daily General Election Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 45%
• John McCain 43%

Survey of 2,641 registered voters. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

IBD/TIPP General Election Poll, conducted July 7th-11th, 2008

• Barack Obama 40%
• John McCain 37%

Sample consists of 854 registered voters.

Rasmussen Arkansas General Election Poll, conducted July 17th, 2008

• John McCain 47%
• Barack Obama 37%

With Leaners:

• John McCain 52%
• Barack Obama 39%

Favorability

• John McCain 59% / 39% (+20)
• Barack Obama 45% / 53% (-8)

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 17, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

SurveyUSA Washington General Election Poll, conducted July 13th-15th, 2008

• Barack Obama 55%
• John McCain 39%

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Washington adults 07/13/08 through 07/15/08; of the adults, 806 identified themselves as being registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. 37 of Washington’s 39 counties vote exclusively by mail; ballots must be postmarked no later than Election Day, 11/04/08.

Rasmussen Oregon General Election Poll, conducted July 15th, 2008

• Barack Obama 46%
• John McCain 37%

With Leaners:

• Barack Obama 49%
• John McCain 40%

Favorability

• Barack Obama 62% / 32% (+30)
• John McCain 56% / 43% (+13)

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 15, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen War on Terror Survey

Who do you think is winning the war on terror?

• U.S./Allies 48%
• Terrorists 20%
• Neither 25%

Will the situation in Iraq get better or worse over the coming six months?

• Better 37%
• Worse 25%

Is the United States safer today than it was before the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks?

• Safer 45%*
• Not safer 37%

* These figures are the most optimistic on record.

In the long run, the U.S. mission in Iraq will be seen as a …

• Success 33%
• Failure 44%

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 30, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

These figures reflect a dramatic improvement from a year ago—in July 2007, only 36% thought the U.S. and its allies were winning. An equal number thought the terrorists held the advantage.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans think the U.S. and its allies are winning, up from 68% last week. There is little change among Democrats, only 27% of whom agree. But 43% of unaffiliated voters, who will be key to the fall election, now think the U.S. is winning, up from 36% a week ago.

The 28-point difference is the most favorable margin recorded by Rasmussen Reports since tracking began in January 2004 and seems to reflect a growing confidence among adults that the tide is turning in Iraq and in the war on terror in general. The previous high was established on September 6, 2004 when 52% thought the U.S. and its allies were winning but 26% thought the terrorists were winning at that time for a 26-point favorable margin.

Both men (54% now, up from 49% last week) and women (43%, up from 37%) also are more confident that the U.S. and its allies are winning in Iraq.

A year ago, the assessment was far more pessimistic—just 23% said that things would get better while 49% offered the more pessimistic response.

A plurality of voters (44%) still believe the war in Iraq will go down in history as a failure, although that number, too, has fallen six percentage points in a week with most going into the ranks of the undecided. Thirty-three percent (33%) say it will be considered a success, up a single percentage point from a week ago.

Update:

Nearly eight out of 10 Americans (78%) think Iran is likely to soon develop nuclear weapons, and over half say the Iranians will not halt their program no matter who is elected president, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Likely Voters think it is possible to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but 52% believe Iran is not likely to stop if McCain is elected to the White House. Even more (61%) say the same if Obama becomes president.

Sixty-three percent (63%) say the goal of Iran’s uranium enrichment program is to develop nuclear weapons, as opposed to 12% who believe the Iranian government’s claim that it is for energy purposes alone.

Fifty-seven (57%) of Republicans believe it is possible to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, compared to only 38% of Democrats and 35% of unaffiliated voters.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Republicans also think Iran is likely to halt its nuclear program if McCain is elected president, but only 24% of Democrats and unaffiliated voters agree. Perhaps indicative of the general belief that McCain has more foreign policy expertise than his opponent, only 40% of Democrats think Iran is likely to stop developing nuclear weapons if Obama is elected, a view shared by 11% of Republicans and 24% of unaffiliated voters.

The hypothetical Obama vs. Dubya poll:

Barack Obama says a vote for John McCain is a vote for George W. Bush’s third term, but a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that the Democratic hopeful would have a much easier time of it if he were actually running against the incumbent president this year.

At a time when Obama and McCain are locked in a tight race, the poll shows that Obama would rout President Bush 54% to 34%. Looking at the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, McCain is outperforming Bush by more than 15 percentage points.

The poll results also show that Obama would have an easier go of it against two of McCain’s chief rivals for the Republican nomination. The presumptive Democratic nominee leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by eight points 49% to 41% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 50% to 39%.

However, McCain fares better against Obama than he does against two other prominent Democrats. New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads McCain by eight points, 50% to 42%. Former Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000, leads McCain 50% to 43%.

These numbers help explain why Election 2008 is competitive even though events so heavily favor the Democrats — because the Republicans are on course to nominate their strongest possible general election candidate but the Democrats are not. Perhaps even more importantly, the data suggests that voters don’t see a potential McCain Administration as the third term of President Bush.

In all five hypothetical match-ups featured in this article, the Democrat leads the Republican among unaffiliated voters. In the match-up between the two presumptive nominees, McCain holds a slight edge over Obama among those voters.

For the record (and despite what it may do to my reputation), I do believe that Dubya, if allowed to run for a third-term, would end up defeating Obama in November. However, I do not believe that there is any Republican that could defeat Hillary Clinton.

You may now commence ripping me to shreds in the comments.

This race is tightening to a draw folks… This is just the latest poll to confirm the trend:

ABC News/Washington Post General Election Poll, conducted July 10th-13th, 2008

• Barack Obama 49%
• John McCain 46%

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 10-13, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,119 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 209 black respondents. The results from the full survey have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

Of course, ABC News is not content to report the results for likely voters, so they go with the Obama Leads By Eight! headline for registered voters.

Mac only up 6 in SC?

Public Policy Polling South Carolina General Election (pdf)

• John McCain 45%
• Barack Obama 39%
• Bob Barr 5%

PPP surveyed 542 likely voters from July 9th-11th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-
4.2%.

Public Policy Polling (D) Colorado General Election Poll, conducted July 9th-10th, 2008

• Barack Obama 47%
• John McCain 43%

PPP surveyed 1,050 likely voters on July 9th and 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Quinnipiac University General Election Poll, conducted July 8th-13th, 2008

• Barack Obama 50%
• John McCain 41%

From July 8 -13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,725 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.

Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters.

But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.

Washington Post-ABC News Iraq/Afghanistan Survey

Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle the war in Iraq - Barack Obama or John McCain?

• John McCain 47%
• Barack Obama 45%

Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Obama/McCain, or not?

He would be a good commander-in-chief of the military. (Yes/No)

• John McCain 72% / 25%
• Barack Obama 48% / 48%

Do you think Obama/McCain has been clear or unclear in his position on withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq? (Clear/Unclear)

• John McCain 60% / 34%
• Barack Obama 56% / 38%

Obama has proposed a timetable to withdraw most U.S. forces from Iraq within 16 months of his taking office. McCain has opposed a specific timetable and said events should dictate when troops are withdrawn. Which approach do you prefer - a timetable or no timetable?

• Timetable 50%
• No timetable 49%

(more…)

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 46%
• John McCain 43%

Survey of 2,635 registered voters. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Rasmussen Louisiana General Election Poll, conducted July 9th, 2008

• John McCain 54%
• Barack Obama 34%

With Leaners:

• John McCain 56%
• Barack Obama 37%

Favorables:

• John McCain 66% / 34% (+32)
• Barack Obama 43% / 56% (-13)

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Research 2000 Missouri General Election Poll, conducted July 7th-10th, 2008

• Barack Obama 48%
• John McCain 43%

800 likely voters. MoE +/- 3.5%

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking Poll

• John McCain 43%
• Barack Obama 43%

With Leaners

• John McCain 46%
• Barack Obama 46%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• John McCain 57% / 40% (+17%)
• Barack Obama 54% / 44% (+10%)

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.

The latest Newsweek poll shows a 12% decrease in Obama’s margin from their last survey:

Newsweek/Princeton Research Survey Research General Election Poll, conducted July 9th-10th, 2008

• Barack Obama 44% (51%)
• John McCain 41% (36%)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Barack Obama 56% / 32% (+24%)
• John McCain 55% / 32% (+23%)

Survey of 1,209 registered voters was conducted July 9-10. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 18-19 are in parentheses.

.

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 48%
• John McCain 42%

Survey of 2,651 registered voters. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Rasmussen Reports Daily General Election Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 43%
• John McCain 42%

With Leaners

• Barack Obama 47%
• John McCain 45%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

The race for the White House is getting a bit closer. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain down to a statistically insignificant single percentage point, 43% to 42%. Prior to today, Obama had enjoyed at least a four-point advantage every day since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race over a month ago. This is the first time his support has fallen below the 45% level since May 31.

When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 47% to 45%. The presumptive Democratic nominee has been ahead with leaners every day since clinching the nomination on June 3 and his support has not been below 48% since June 5. While Obama’s numbers have slipped a bit in today’s report, McCain is at the high end of the range he has occupied for the past six weeks. However, it is worth noting that he not moved out of that narrow range (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).

In a race that has been so steady for so long, it is easy to overreact to the slightest movement. It will take another few days to see if this is merely statistical noise or if it marks a slight change from the stability of the race that has been evident since Obama wrapped up the nomination. Either way, the campaign remains surprisingly competitive in a year where the fundamentals so heavily favor the Democrats. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Thirty-three percent (33%) say the same about McCain. It’s going to be an interesting few months.-(all emphasis mine)

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 46%
• John McCain 43%

Survey of 2,651 registered voters. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

My problems with this poll are many. But I believe that it is still worth posting for the record and for the sake of our continuing discussion here at R4′08:

Pan American SMS Maine General Election Poll, conducted June 10th-July 18th, 2008

• Barack Obama 37%
• John McCain 26%

Sample consists of 400 registered voters.

More good news from the Show Me State:

Public Policy Polling Missouri General Election Poll, conducted July 2nd-5th, 2008

• John McCain 47%
• Barack Obama 44%

PPP surveyed 723 likely voters from July 2nd to July 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

AEA/Capital Survey Alabama General Election Poll, conducted June 25th-July 1st, 2008

• John McCain 49%
• Barack Obama 36%

Sample consists of 536 likely voters. MoE is +/- 4.3%

Rasmussen North Dakota General Election Poll, conducted July 8th, 2008

• John McCain 43%
• Barack Obama 43%

With Leaners:

• John McCain 47%
• Barack Obama 46%

Favorability:

• John McCain 59%-39% (+20)
• Barack Obama 54%-43% (+11)

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Inside the numbers:

North Dakota is as safe a Republican state as any in Presidential elections. George W. Bush carried the state by twenty-seven points in Election 2004 and twenty-eight points four years earlier. The state has voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate just once since 1932 and twice since 1916.

Despite that history, John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters. Both men earn 43% of the vote. When leaners are included, McCain holds a statistically insignificant one-point advantage, 47% to 46%. Last week, a Rasmussen Reports survey showed Obama with a five-point advantage in neighboring Montana. That state, too, has a long history of voting Republican at the Presidential level but both states also have two Democratic U.S. Senators. McCain is returning the favor by running much stronger than recent Republicans in New Jersey.

In North Dakota, McCain leads by double digits among men but trails by nine among women. McCain earns the vote from 87% of Republicans while Obama attracts 79% of Democrats and holds an eighteen point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama leads by twenty points among those who consider economic issues most important while McCain has a thirty-seven point lead among those who see national security as the highest priority. Thirty-nine percent (39%) view the economy as most important while 24% say the same about national security.

Rasmussen Reports Daily General Election Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 45%
• John McCain 41%

With Leaners

• Barack Obama 48%
• John McCain 45%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 48% to 45%. This is the first time that McCain has been within three points of Obama with or without leaners since June 20. Data released yesterday also showed McCain improving his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.

It will take another few days to see if this is merely statistical noise or if it marks a slight change from the stability of the race that has been evident since Obama wrapped up the nomination.

Zogby did an interesting poll of all 50 states.  It was of likely voters between June 11-30.  I was amazed at how well Barr and Nader did in many states, but here are the results from the Granite State:

Zogby New Hampshire General Election Poll, conducted June 11th-30th, 2008.

• Obama - 40%
• McCain - 37%
• Barr - 10%
• Nader - 2%
• Someone else - 7%
• Undecided - 4%

Methodology: Zogby International conducted an online survey of 436 likely voters. The poll ran from June 11-30. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

McCain, Obama nearly even with Independents. In a tight race, will 9% stay with Barr and help Obama win the state? Are the participants in the Free State Project finally having an impact?