Michigan Democrats have agreed to have a revote on June 3rd.

I think this is a good move for Hillary. It improves her odds of winning the popular vote among sanctioned primaries and it also narrows Hillary’s pledged delegate gap. This guarantees Hillary will be campaigning against Obama for the next 4 months.

This re-vote will be privately funded meaning Democrats may have to pay millions of dollars that could have been used in the general election campaign.

McCain wins 9 states.
Romney wins 7 states.
Huckabee wins 5 states.

However, McCain wins CA and MO, the two biggest battlegrounds. He also takes the most winner-take-all states and winds up well ahead of Romney and Huckabee in total delegates after tonight (406 to 151 over Romney according to CNN; 407 to 146 over Romney according to the AP). Huckabee is still well back despite his surprising wins tonight, with 93 (CNN) or 63 (AP) delegates.

Romney has vowed to continue the campaign, as has Huckabee.

The next contests are a caucus in Kansas, a caucus in Washington for partial delegates, and the next step in Louisiana’s crazy primary system, all on 2/9. The next states that people will actually care about are the trifecta of Virginia, Maryland, and DC on the 12th.

At work now- so I can’t hang around, but here are a few quick observations I noticed over the last few days through 12 pm today, when I went and cast my vote. Like I’ve said, I live in East Tennessee, which is the GOP’s strongest region.

• Since yesterday, I’ve received two messages on the answering machine from Mike Huckabee, and one from McCain
• During the Super Bowl, I counted two Obama commercials, a couple for Hillary, and one from Huckabee (the “Christian Leader” one)
• Ron Paul has a ton of signs
• John McCain has almost as many signs up as Paul
• When I was at the voting place, a couple of people openly said “Fred’s still on the ballot? I’m voting for him then.”

I think I stand by my earlier prediction. I’m not a McCain supporter, but it I were, I’d be very confident about his chances here today.

Yesterday, TLG called me the new “official random poster.” I guess that’s what happens to us folks who don’t come out and support any candidate after our own left the race. Not being a shill anymore opened my eyes to the fun I can have with the election.

Anyways, here is the 1st Open Voting Thread for the day- since a lot of us are voting today, here is where you can discuss who you voted for (even though I think most of us know who each is supporting), or if you had a last minute change of heart, if you voted strategically…

Or if you decided to support the last chance to save our country from the evil that we dare not speak of?

Fire away…

I’ve been waiting to use that title the entire primary season…

Here are the poll closing times for tonight, so you know when to expect returns to come in. All times are EST, so adjust accordingly for your time zone:

7:00 — Georgia
8:00 — Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee
8:30 — Arkansas
9:00 — Arizona, New York
10:00 — Montana, Utah
11:00 — California

States holding caucuses with no specific ending time: Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota, West Virginia

Jack Bauer for President, baby.

I am not sure of delegate counts, so I’m going to take the easy route and take a stab at who wins tomorrow. It’s the first time I’ve gone forward with predictions on the front page, so here goes:

• Alabama - McCain
• Alaska - Romney
• Arizona - McCain
• Arkansas - Huckabee
• California - McCain
• Colorado - Romney
• Connecticut - McCain
• Delaware - McCain
• Georgia - McCain
• Illinois - Romney (had to pick an upset)
• Massachusetts - Romney
• Minnesota - McCain
• Missouri - McCain
• Montana - Romney
• New Jersey - McCain
• New York - McCain
• North Dakota - Romney
• Oklahoma - McCain
• Tennessee - McCain
• Utah - Romney
• West Virginia - Huckabee

I think McCain will pretty much sweep the southern states, and carry a majority of California delegates, pushing all speculation of possible upsets out of the equation. I thought Huckabee would be stronger in southern states, but his buzz has really died. He was here in town early this morning. I wasn’t able to make it, but it recieved little coverage.

Just my predictions…

Here are the states that will be voting tomorrow:

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia

Here’s how I see them shaping up:

Alabama - Safe McCain
Alaska - Leans Romney
Arizona - Safe McCain
Arkansas - Safe Huckabee
California - Tossup
Colorado - Safe Romney
Connecticut - Safe McCain
Delaware - Leans McCain
Georgia - Tossup
Illinois - Leans McCain
Massachusetts - Safe Romney
Minnesota - Leans McCain
Missouri - Leans McCain
Montana - Safe Romney
New Jersey - Safe McCain
New York - Safe McCain
North Dakota - Leans Romney
Oklahoma - Tossup
Tennessee - Tossup
Utah - Safe Romney
West Virginia - Leans Romney

Or, put differently:

McCain - 9 states (AL, AZ, CT, DE, IL, MN, MO, NJ, NY)
Romney - 7 states (AK, CO, MA, MT, ND, UT, WV)
Huckabee - 1 state (AR)
Tossup - 4 states (CA, GA, OK, TN)

I’m sure you have your own opinions, so what say you?

I know most of you are more interested in the Republicans, so I will save them for last, but here are my forecasts for the Democrats on Tuesday.

Current Delegate Count:

• Clinton 249
• Obama 181

2025 are needed to clinch nomination.

Alabama: The polls have been surprisingly close, but a high African American turnout will propel Obama to victory.

• Obama: 29 delegates
• Clinton: 23 delegates

Alaska: I have not seen any polls for this state, but the rule of thumb is that Democrats in Republican states tend to be very liberal. You have to be very passionate to be a Democrat in a place like Alaska, Idaho, or Utah where most of your neighbors are Republicans. When you combine that with the fact that this is a caucus, you have to give it to Obama.

• Obama: 8 delegates
• Clinton: 5 delegates

Arizona: Though the gap has been closing, Clinton has led in every poll here. Independents cannot vote here, and there is a high Hispanic population. Both factors bode well for Clinton.

• Clinton: 29 delegates
• Obama: 27 delegates

Arkansas: Even though the Clintons abandonded this state after Bill’s Presidency in favor of the Big Apple, Hillary will still win here, and win handily.

• Clinton: 23 delegates
• Obama: 12 delegates

California: This state has been trending to Obama. Despite the high Hispanic population, young voters, Independents, and latte liberals will put Obama barely over the top.

• Obama: 196 delegates
• Clinton: 174 delegates

Colorado: Democrats in Western states tend to be liberal, and this is a caucus that will attract the most passionate activists. The last poll was conducted before Edwards left the race, and Obama led by 2. He will win even bigger with Edwards gone.

• Obama: 29 delegates
• Clinton: 26 delegates

Connecticut: This upscale state is the place where Ned Lamont upset Joe Lieberman in the Democrat primary in 2006. It also went for Jerry Brown over Hillary’s husband in 1992. The state tends to prefer insurgents over establishment Democrats, at least in recent primaries. It has been trending Obama, and I think he will win it Tuesday.

• Obama: 25 delegates
• Clinton: 23 delegates

Delaware: Your guess on this one is as good as mine, but I don’t think Democrats are overly liberal in this state. Joe Biden and Tom Carper are from the establishment wing of the party, not the moveon.org crowd. Independents cannot vote. Hillary should do especially well in the southern part of the state, and I think she wins the state overall.

• Clinton: 9 delegates
• Obama: 6 delegates

Georgia: Obama wins this one in a walk for the same reason he won South Carolina in a walk.

• Obama: 52 delegates
• Clinton: 35 delegates

Idaho: The Democratic caucuses in this overwhelmingly Republican state will attract the hardest core of left-wing activists. Obama wins easily.

• Obama: 12 delegates
• Clinton: 6 delegates

Illinois: Easy win for Obama in Hillary’s native state.

• Obama: 107 delegates
• Clinton: 46 delegates

Kansas: Easy win for Obama in his own native state.

Obama: 22 delegates
Clinton: 10 delegates

Massachusetts: This is a very Democratic state, but there are two wings of the party. There are upper class, secular liberals who will go for Obama, and there are blue collar, largely Catholic, lunch bucket liberals who will go for Hillary. Obama doesn’t connect well with the latter group which explains why he trails Hillary in all polls here despite the endorsements of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Deval Patrick, and the Boston Globe. Those endorsements will keep it close, but Hillary will win.

• Clinton: 51 delegates
• Obama: 42 delegates

Minnesota: Perhaps I should defer to Kavon on this one, but I’ll give it a stab. This is a caucus state, and Democrats here tend to be liberal. Obama wins easily.

• Obama: 41 delegates
• Clinton: 31 delegates

Missouri: Obama has the endorsement of Senator McCaskill and will do well with African American voters, but I don’t think there will be enough of them to counteract Hillary’s lead among white voters in this socially conservative but Democratic state. Obama has never led in the polls here.

• Clinton: 39 delegates
• Obama: 33 delegates

New Jersey: This will be the upset of the night on the Democratic side. Though Clinton has always led here, the latest Zogby poll shows Obama trailing by only 1. The momentum is with him. This is a wealthy state with a lot of liberals who will be inclined to Obama. He wins by a hair.

• Obama: 55 delegates
• Clinton: 52 delegates

New York: Much to the dismay of Republicans, Hillary Clinton is very popular in her adopted state.

• Clinton: 139 delegates
• Obama: 93 delegates

North Dakota: Obama has invested more in this caucus state and will likely win it.

• Obama: 8 delegates
• Clinton: 5 delegates

Oklahoma: I haven’t seen polling, but Democrats here are moderate. Independents cannot vote. Wesley Clark won here last time, and John Kerry came in third behind John Edwards. This state also borders Arkansas. Easy win for Clinton.

• Clinton: 25 delegates
• Obama: 13 delegates

Tennessee: There are not as many African Americans here as in the Deep South, and white Democrats from Tennessee are moderate. Clinton wins easily.

• Clinton: 41 delegates
• Obama: 27 delegates

Utah: Democrats in conservative states tend to be pretty liberal, so I will give this one to Obama for the same reason I’ve given him Idaho and Alaska.

• Obama: 13 delegates
• Clinton: 10 delegates

If these predictions are correct, we will come out of Super Tuesday with the delegate count being:

Clinton: 1051 delegates
Obama: 1031 delegates

This is a nail biter. I did these states one at a time and added them up at the end. I had no idea they would only be 20 delegates apart. We’ll see how it plays out.

It’s over, so I figured we might as well have a thread congratulating the senator, as John McCain wins Florida.

Guess what I’m doing on Super Tuesday?

This is a surprising result:

The Republican Party of Louisiana today announced that John McCain won the Louisiana Caucus held yesterday, January 22nd. On the heels of his win in South Carolina last weekend, victory in Louisiana is another indication of John McCain’s growing momentum and of the fact that John McCain is the consistent conservative choice capable of winning the GOP stronghold of the South this November.

John McCain’s Louisiana Chair, former Governor Buddy Roemer, issued the following statement regarding the results of the Louisiana Caucus:

“Last night’s results go to show that John McCain is the best hope of conservatives here in Louisiana and across the country. The people of Louisiana know that actions speak louder than words, and that’s why they chose John McCain over Mitt Romney. He is the only candidate with a long-held and consistent record of defending life, of protecting our national security, and of promoting pro-growth economic principles that benefit hard-working American families. John McCain is quickly emerging as the consensus candidate in the Republican race and the only conservative who can win this November.”

Make that three golds for Sen. McCain.

Yes Virginia, Louisiana holds their caucuses this evening:

Lost amidst the excitement of South Carolina’s “gateway to the South” primary on Saturday and Florida’s win or go home tournament next Tuesday are the Louisiana Republican Caucuses this evening, which just got underway.

While many of the candidates haven’t put a lot of resources into the state (most of the leadership there was pro-Thompson) there are a few things that make Louisiana’s caucuses interesting. These are the first southern caucuses in the country, which means the folks voting will be very conservative. Add to that the fact that Bobby Jindal just won big down there and that the state GOP is largely controlled by Christian conservatives and Louisiana could be a very interesting bellweather right before Florida.

Because of the financial advantage he holds, Romney would appear to have an advantage coming into tonight’s vote; he’s done very well in caucuses and straw polls to date, including two in Louisiana. He also boasts the endorsement of two congressmen in the state. This could be a nice little win for him if he can pull it off.

Mike Huckabee is a neighboring state Governor and this is a very evangelical state. Louisiana would seem to be a natural fit for him but coming off Saturday’s loss in South Carolina and questions about his campaign’s viability, it will be interesting to see how he performs. He hasn’t been very visible there thus far.

John McCain comes into the caucus fresh off a win in South Carolina, but the conservative vote there was heavily divided and McCain won’t have Fred Thompson to help him tonight either. A win for McCain in a conservative southern caucus heading into Florida would do a lot to help McCain answer doubters who question his ability to win among Republicans.

Finally, there’s Ron Paul, and he’s well, being Ron Paul. He had 600 people show up at a rally yesterday in a bad part of Baton Rouge and was met with rousing applause. How many of the Paul people have actually gone to the work of registering as Republicans, and then will turn around and show up tonight will be determined, but still, Paul could surprise here. After all, he came in a strong second in a similar situation in Nevada last Saturday.

The caucuses are a bit of a beauty contest however (per a commenter at Marc Ambinder’s Blog)-

The process is:

Jan 22 - delegates to the state convention are elected.

Feb 9 - primary is held, but unless some candidate get a majority this is strictly a beauty contest. If someone does get 51% on Feb 9, *then* they automatically get 20 of the state’s delegates to the national convention; if no one gets 51% then those delegates are uncommitted. This is different than other winner-take-all states where mere plurality will get you the delegates.

Feb 16 - state convention is held and delegates to the national convention are elected.

In all, this is a fairly typical Romney strategy: Compete in places where you have a built-in advantage (MI & NV), or places where a victory can be purchased (WY and straw polls too numerous to mention.)

The LA Caucuses are very easily purchased (considering that not a single other candidate is competing there), so winning it gets you some great free press attention when it is too complicated for the average person to understand that whoever “wins” there tonight really wins nothing. The headline is all that matters.

Per Ambinder:

• GOP Primary Voters: 68% Republican, 25% Indy, 7% Dem
• Majority of GOP primary voters say economy the #1 issue
• More (57%) care about stance on issues than leadership qualities (40%)
• 44% say they decided in the final week.

Just as a reminder, here’s a look at the MI polls leading up to today:

* Zogby: McCain +1 (50% Republican voters)
* Rasmussen: Romney +1 (70% Republican voters)
* Mitchell (2nd to last): Romney +2 (75% Republican voters)
* Mitchell (today): Romney +6 (80% Republican voters)
* Detroit Freep: Romney +5 (83% Republican voters)
* MSNBC/Mason-Dixon: Romney +8 (70% Republican voters)

68% being Republicans makes it a VERY close race…

[UPDATE: Edison Media Research, the firm conducting the exit polls, has predicted a Romney victory based on their results. (Click link for more details.)]

Early Michigan Reports…

It looks like the Romney clan hopes for another family sledding again day tomorrow…

BREAKING: New footage of the Romney family sledding…

Low turnout expected if the weather is bad. As of right now, things are a little shady. No one is predicting a snowstorm, but it does seem that some snow will be in the area. From the Radar:

“The weather Tuesday in Michigan will not be an issue for voters casting their votes in the Michigan Primary. There will be flurries and snow showers, while temperatures will be near normal for mid-January”

Snowdance? Romney fans… GET TO IT!

A lot of people supporting other candidates are pulling for you, but don’t get worked up and keep a cool head.

Good luck to all the candidates, and I hope that whoever wins, it is not because of Democrats with nothing better to do.

Here’s the short version: Simply put, Mitt thus far has gotten second place to two different candidates. If he had lost twice to the same guy, we could call that guy the frontrunner. But we now have both Huckabee and McCain as winners of primaries with Giuliani waiting in the wings to try to poach a victory a Florida. There’s no frontrunner. Romney coming in second to both of these men positions him as the conservative alternative in this race now.

Here’s the long version. This is a fractured race, which could be seen as tipping in nearly any candidate’s favor. It’s exciting from a pundit’s point of view, because we really don’t know what’s going to happen. And as the primary season progresses, more and more people are talking about a brokered convention. There’s this post on Redstate, entitled “Sorry, but no one is going to win - check the delegate math.” Rush has talked about it. Folks from the Corner have talked about it.

MSNBC’s First Read mentions this very interesting tidbit:

“In the modern primary era, this is the first four-way split in Iowa and New Hampshire in the Republican and Democratic races. In other words, there is no precedent for what’s taken place in this election — not in the generation since Iowa and New Hampshire have mattered together. Since 1976, when there have been winners in all four states, there has never been four different candidates who have won these two states.”

So make no mistake, we are in the midst of a truly historic election. Momentum, once thought by most (including myself) to be the most important factor in early state primaries, is virtually non-existant in this race. When you have so many different candidates with a chance to win different states, winning just one doesn’t give anyone the momentum (as that Redstate piece linked above also argues) - at least the “big Mo” needed to sweep this thing. Exhibit A: Obama, Barack and his victory in New Hampshire.

Here’s another thing to consider: none of the states until 2/5 are winner take all, meaning that many candidates will continue getting delegates from MI, NV, SC, and FL. MI, SC, and FL all divide their delegates based on Congressional district, then give the leftovers to whoever gets the largest number of votes statewide, and NV is a proportional caucus just like Iowa. And finally, consider also that there’s not a ton of delegates to divide up in each state: 30 in MI, 34 in NV, and 24 in SC. The largest will be 57 out of Florida.

So when we’re done with Florida, we’re going to have at least four guys, if not five or six, who are close to one another in delegate totals. Then comes 2/5.

At this point, it would be foolish for any candidate (with the exception of Hunter, and possible Paul) to drop out prior to 2/5. This is an election for the history books.

I’ve got to say, I’m incredibly proud to be a Wyoming resident this evening. The delegates from my state are representing my top three choices in the current Republican field (and the only three I’d really feel comfortable voting for).

Here are the final results:

Wyoming Delegate Allocation

• Romney - 8 (67%)
• Thompson - 3 (25%)
• Hunter - 1 (8%)
• All others - 0 (0%)

So Romney wins a second place and a first place going into New Hampshire. The total delegates so far are:

Total Delegate Allocation

• Romney - 26
• Huckabee - 20
• Thompson - 6
• McCain - 3
• Paul - 2
• Hunter - 1
• Giuliani - 1

New Hampshire awards 12 delegates, and they are split proportionally among any candidate who gets at least 10%. Most likely, that will be McCain, Romney, and Huckabee in some order, with Giuliani and Paul fighting to get above the cutoff.

That means that even if Romney gets second in New Hampshire, he will still lead the delegate total going in to Michigan. I know that the momentum will not be with Romney, obviously, if he doesn’t win there, but here’s another thought I had earlier this morning: with victories divided among several candidates in the early states, it may benefit Romney who plays well in every early state. He could theoretically stay in the delegate race despite a loss in Iowa, and he definitely has the cash to stay competitive on 2/5 if that’s the case.

In other words, Romney’s strategy of competing in every state (and picking up delegates from all of them) puts him in a better position than candidates who pick and choose states (Huckabee in IA, SC; Thompson in SC; Giuliani in FL and 2/5; McCain in NH; etc.). It’s all up to how well he performs in New Hampshire, and I don’t think he is necessarily out of the race if he gets second.

This is an open thread for IA predictions, but first here are my own.

Democratic caucus- First Ballot

• Barack Obama: 31%
• Hillary Clinton: 28%
• John Edwards: 27%
• Joe Biden: 8%
• Bill Richardson: 6%

Democratic caucus- Second Ballot

• Barack Obama: 37%
• John Edwards: 32%
• Hillary Clinton: 31%

Republican Caucus:

• Mike Huckabee: 31%
• Mitt Romney: 27%
• Ron Paul: 13%
• Fred Thompson: 11%
• John McCain: 10%
• Rudy Giuliani: 7%
• Duncan Hunter: 1%

Have at it! I’ll compile your predictions for a race42008.com result. All those before 7 pm ET, anyway.

Editor’s Note: The Race 4 2008 Iowa Caucus Open Forum will be going live at 7pm EST.-KWN

This will hopefully be the final installment of The Waltz That Became the Macarena - posts about the ever-changing primary calendar.

This morning, Michigan set its primary officially as January 15 after the state Supreme Court reversed a lower court decision. As soon as that date became official, Bill Gardner announced New Hampshire will be on 1/8/08.

This makes the early calendar exactly what LJ predicted:

• 1/3 - Iowa
• 1/5 - Wyoming
• 1/8 - New Hampshire
• 1/15 - Michigan
• 1/19 - Nevada, South Carolina
• 1/29 - Florida

There will then be one week until the 2/5 mega Tuesday primaries.

As many have noted before, Wyoming is not a primary or a caucus, it is a convention. It is still listed here as a delegate-awarding event.

With all of the talk of Hizzoner’s “February 5th Strategy”, I thought a little perspective may be in order concerning the state of the race in the early primaries and caucuses. Acknowledging Gov. Romney’s lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, let’s take a look at the RCP averages for the rest of the early states as they appear on the calendar:

Michigan

RCP Average: Rudy +3.4. Has led in the last three polls.

Nevada

RCP Average: Rudy +7.7. Has led in the past 5 polls.

South Carolina

RCP Average: Tied for 1st place with Gov. Romney at 20.5%.

Florida

RCP Average: Rudy +16.4%. Has led by +21, +17, +18, and +8 in the last four polls of the state.

Geesh! I bet most candidates would wish for the “early state problem” that Hizzoner has!

From The Page:

Michigan’s Jan. 15 presidential primary can for forward, the state Supreme Court decided Wednesday, keeping alive the state’s bid to be one of the 2008 campaign’s first contests.

The court decision should make it easier for New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner to schedule that state’s primary, which New Hampshire law requires to be the nation’s first. Gardner has been waiting to see what the Michigan courts would do.

If Gardner picks January 8th, that would mean that the main primary schedule would be as follows:

• Iowa: January 3rd
• Wyoming: January 5th
• New Hampshire: January 8th
• Michigan: January 15th
• Nevada & South Carolina: January 19th
• Florida: January 29th
• Maine: February 2nd
• Mega Primary (AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, CT, GA, IL, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NY, ND, OK, RI, TN, UT, WV): February 5th

Lest you think the mad scramble to move to February 5 has ended, I give you Rhode Island and their 20 delegates this morning.

The state lawmakers voted yesterday to move their primary to February 5, joining at least 20 other states on that day.

The only polling done for Rhode Island was in April of 2006, long before Giuliani entered the race or anyone was really paying attention. At that time, McCain was leading Romney 50-14. Governor Carcieri has endorsed Romney.

Just like the DNC voted to strip all the delegates from Michigan and Florida during the Democratic primaries, the RNC has now taken the first step to strip five states of half their delegates as well. Yes, you read that correctly - five states.

The RNC rules state that no voting can take place prior to February 5. They don’t have any exceptions like the DNC does for states such as SC, NV, IA, and NH. So the RNC Executive Committee voted this morning to halve the delegates from the following states: New Hampshire, Michigan, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Florida.

The total delegates from Iowa and Nevada will not be halved because those states technically hold non-binding caucuses and delegates aren’t chosen until later conventions. (See this piece for more details.)

The issue now proceeds to the full RNC body for a vote after local November elections. It is widely expected to pass that vote as well. Katon Dawson, chairman of the SC GOP, has already threatened legal action against the RNC if the vote passes, but as on the Democrat side as well, the law and the courts seem to favor national parties over local ones when it comes to primary calendars.

This vote also activates a contingency plan for selecting delegates in Florida: no longer will the primary be proportional (3 delegates per Congressional district plus the remaining for whoever wins the statewide vote). Once Florida’s delegates are halved, it will be a winner-take-all contest based on the statewide vote.

What many have dismissed as not being realistic is being seriously considered by New Hampshire’s Secretary of State: moving the NH primary to December of this year (and less than two months away). The Politico has the scoop:

“December is a possibility,” Gardner told me Tuesday. “It is not my preference. But it could become my preference.”

…

Gardner told me Tuesday that New Hampshire will go “no later than Jan. 8″ because the Michigan legislature has set that state’s primary for Jan. 15. But if Michigan Democrats move up on their own, New Hampshire would move up, too, even into December if need be.

Gardner pointed out a rarely-noticed part of the New Hampshire law that says he must set a primary date for “each year when a president of the United States is to be elected OR THE YEAR PREVIOUS.” (emphasis added.)

…

As usual, it all gets down to Bill Gardner and New Hampshire. As John DiStaso, the senior political reporter of the New Hampshire Union Leader has noted, Gardner has moved up the date this year for candidates to get on the ballot in New Hampshire so that Gardner can mail out absentee ballots early.

“It means, theoretically, at least, that the state would be ready to have a primary on Dec. 12,” DiStaso wrote.

The article also notes that Nevada, which has previously threatened to move to 1/12 to get off the same day as South Carolina, has now said they will stay on 1/19. This makes the NV caucuses for both parties and the GOP SC primary on the same day.

One very large piece of the primary puzzle fell into place today, courtesy of the Iowa Republican Party. Marc Ambinder has the scoop:

On Friday night, the Republican Party of Iowa’s state central committee voted unanimously to recommend Thursday, January 3 as the date of their caucuses.

So the Iowa caucus will be on January 3, 2008. Ambinder goes on to explain that the GOP is lobbying the Democratic Party to accept the same date, and predicts that will be the “likeliest” scenario. (He does mention, though, that the media and some in the Democratic Party will be pushing for a Jan 5 date for various reasons.)

As Marc says, “the Republican Party has decided: the third it is, meaning New Years in Des Moines for all the presidential candidates and their entourages.”

Most likely (and be careful using that terminology in reference to primary dates), that means the rest of the calendar will shake out as follows:

• 1/3 - Iowa
• 1/5 - Wyoming
• 1/8 - New Hampshire
• 1/12 - Nevada
• 1/15 - Michigan
• 1/19 - South Carolina
• 1/29 - Florida

Over at The Atlantic, Marc Ambinder notes that the top players in the race for 2008 have reached “remarkable unanimity” about what the early states calendar is going to look like - even though nothing is official at this point. According to what Ambinder is hearing this is how it will shape up:

• Sat. 1/5 - Iowa
• Tue. 1/8 - New Hampshire
• Sat. 1/12 - Nevada (moved from 1/19)
• Tue. 1/15 - Michigan (no Dem delegates, 1/2 GOP delegates)
• Sat. 1/19 - South Carolina
• Tue. 1/29 - Florida (no Dem delegates, 1/2 GOP delegates)

Obviously, this impacts the race greatly. Here are just three ways:

• The fact that the first five primaries are within a two week period of one another (as opposed to having five primaries in a period of over four weeks in 2000) make momentum that much more of a factor.
• With Michigan not awarding any delegates to the Dem candidate, it makes it more likely for independents to vote in the GOP primary than the Dem primary.
• Having Florida ten days after the flurry of the first five means that candidates will have a short chance to breathe, recoup their losses, and hit the state hard. Also, legislation will be triggered that will make the Florida primary winner-take-all.

The crazy ride that is the race for 2008 continues…

There has been quite a bit of debate here regarding whether Michigan’s new Jan 15th primary will be open or closed. So I contacted the Republican Party of Michigan yesterday, and an official confirmed that their Jan 15th, 2008 primary will be open.

I think I know where some the confusion stems from. According to my source, by the DNC definition Michigan’s primary is technically closed because you are forced to choose one party ballot at the polls. So reports that used DNC party officials as sources for their story may have reported the technical truth from the DNC’s perspective.

But by most everyone else’s definition, Michigan will be an open primary. Any person may walk into the polls on Jan. 15th 2008, choose a Republican or Democrat ballot, and vote for that party’s presidential nominee.

The Montana Republican Party has voted 72-14 to change their June primary into a February 5 caucus. From a local Montana newspaper:

Party chairman Erik Iverson, who proposed the change, said the presidential nomination process is all but over by June, rendering the primary vote meaningless.

Holding an earlier caucus will re-energize the Republican Party in Montana and make presidential candidates pay more attention to the state, he said.

“It’s time for Montana to have a voice in this process,” Iverson said Saturday. “I think it’s time to have the courage to stand up and vote for change.”

This plan, like every other state’s, must be approved by the RNC today.

I have long mentioned in my posts that the setting of the primary calendars is a complicated dance between state legislatures, state parties, and national parties. For the 2008 election, that dance, usually executed well and, for the most part, behind the scenes, has become an inane game of leapfrog as states greedily overreach to grab what they consider their rightful piece of the pie. In short, the waltz has become the macarena. My posts on the subject of the primary calendar will be titled thusly in the future.

This morning brings news from the weekend that the top six Democratic candidates, in a surprise move, have all signed a vow not to campaign in any state that is breaking national party rules by holding their primary prior to February 5. This means the only early states these candidates will campaign in are IA, NH, NV, and SC, as they are the only four that have DNC approval to go before 2/5. This means, of course, Democrats will not be campaigning in Michigan or Florida prior to those states’ primaries.

Here’s where it gets interesting: Michigan and Florida have told the DNC and the RNC both to shove it, though not in so many words, and say they will be holding their primaries on their planned dates anyway. The DNC now has officially said those states will not get any delegates at the 2008 DNC, and the RNC is expected to strip half of each state’s delegates from them today or sometime this week.

With no delegates, the “winners” of the MI and FL primary on the Democratic side of the aisle would get nothing but a little momentum — and even then, the momentum they get will probably be negligible at best since nobody is campaigning there. The vow that the Democrats took to avoid those states on the campaign trail serves to strengthen the national party and weaken the state legislatures’ control over the process.

What will be interesting to see is what develops among the RNC and the GOP candidates. States have to present their primary plans to the RNC today for approval, and the Republicans are expected to strip half of the delegates from any state going before 2/5 without their prior approval. The question is: will allowing states to keep half their delegates be an effective enough deterrent to force the same kind of vow from the GOP hopefuls? This pundit thinks the national party rules are akin to trying to stop murderers by turning down the death penalty in favor of Paris Hilton prison. If deterrence was truly the RNC’s goal, they’d go all out like the Democrats. It’s pretty clear that the RNC wants to maintain some semblance of state’s rights in the primary process, but offer a stick/carrot to encourage behavior they would like to see (if you go after 2/5, you get to keep all your delegates).

In a move that serves as flipping the bird to both national parties, the Michigan House of Representatives this afternoon voted to pass legislation moving their caucus from 2/26 to a primary on 1/15. Now that both chambers have passed the bill, it will go to committee where it is expected to pass and to Governor Granholm’s desk, where she has vowed to sign it. In the fight between the national parties and state legislatures, the states aren’t blinking or backing down yet.

From the Boston Globe (hat-tip to Aron):

[Tom] Sansonetti said there is a short term goal and a long term goal. In the short term they want Wyoming to be a bigger player in presidential politics. Second, “is to have the rules committee of the RNC get off their butts and come up with a system that is put into place … that is fair,” he said. (emphasis mine)

The answer is simple: caucus envy. States have simply had it with Iowa and New Hampshire playing determinate roles.

Bet the farm on a national primary the next time around.

From the NH Union Leader:

Wyoming Republicans have jumped to the head of the pack in the nominating process, moving their delegate-selection conventions to Jan. 5 before even Iowa or New Hampshire had expected to vote.

While the move puts Wyoming first in the accelerated primary process, it is not expected to stay there as states continue to jockey for position. At stake for Wyoming Republicans on Jan. 5 will be 12 delegates to the national convention.

“We’re first in the nation,” said Tom Sansonetti, the state party’s 2008 county convention coordinator. “At least for the next couple, three weeks until New Hampshire and Iowa move, which I expect they will.”

Which means there will be voting in 2007 folks.