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Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney narrowly beat John McCain, 35 to 34 percent, in a straw poll of conservative political activists gathered Saturday in Washington - a vote that is viewed as a barometer of support from that major GOP voting bloc.

The announcement of Romney’s win was greeted by cheers from the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference. McCain is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

Roughly three-quarters of the votes in the three-day CPAC 2008 straw poll were cast before Mitt Romney dropped out of the presidential race, and one-quarter after his withdrawal.

In votes cast before Romney left the race, he beat McCain 44 to 27 percent. Among votes gathered after Romney’s withdrawal, McCain led Romney 37 to 32 percent.

Mike Huckabee received 12 percent of the vote in the straw poll overall, and Ron Paul received 10 percent. Those results were virtually unchanged among just those votes taken after Romney’s withdrawal.

Thirty-one percent said that if John McCain were the GOP presidential nominee, they would either vote for someone else, or not vote at all.

Huckabee fared even worse in the survey – 36 percent said they would not support him, or would back someone else, if he were the Republican nominee.

Just in:

• John McCain - 43.5%
• Mitt Romney - 35.3%
• Ron Paul - 3rd Place (total unknown)
• Rudy Giuliani - 4th Place (total unknown)
• Mike Huckabee - 5th Place (total unknown)

D.C. is winner take all. McCain won in 2000.

From the Sonoran Alliance

The county also gave an indication of who the party faithful is supporting as the Republican nominee. Here are the results out of 721 ballots cast:

Overall Votes (662 Votes):
#1 - Mitt Romney - 28.4% (188)
#2 - Fred Thomson - 18.3% (121)
#3 - Ron Paul - 17.4% (115)
#4 - Duncan Hunter - 14.0% (93)
#5 - John McCain - 12.1% (80)
#6 - Rudy Giuliani - 5.0% (33)
#7 - Mike Huckabee - 4.8% (32)

Most Acceptable (1781 Votes):
#1 - Fred Thompson - 20.8% (370)
#2 - Duncan Hunter - 20.1% (358)
#3 - Mitt Romney - 20.0% (356)
#4 - Rudy Giuliani - 13.2% (235)
#5 - Mike Huckabee - 11.6% (207)
#6 - John McCain - 7.6% (135)
#7 - Ron Paul - 6.7% (120)

Most Unacceptable (1949 votes):
#1 - John McCain - 21.9% (427)
#2 - Ron Paul - 20.3% (396)
#3 - Rudy Giuliani - 18.3% (357)
#4 - Mike Huckabee - 17.4% (340)
#5 - Duncan Hunter - 8.0% (156)
#6 - Fred Thompson - 7.8% (152)
#7 - Mitt Romney - 6.2% (121 )

We knew this would be a primary campaign of contrasts. Each candidate has their own strategy for winning the nomination, which makes it exciting to watch, and we knew each candidate had their own idea of a winning platform as well. For Governor Romney, that platform has been articulated as his now infamous three-legged stool. For Mayor Giuliani, pundits have long suspected he was replacing the social conservative leg with the “electability” leg.

Well, according to AP reports out of North Dakota (where the state Republican Party recently held a dinner and straw poll - more on that later), it looks like the Giuliani campaign is throwing out the stool all together and just going with the electability argument now.

Here’s what Mitt’s son Tagg said at the ND dinner:

“Personally, I think the best way to beat Hillary Clinton is not to water down our values, or to try to act more like Hillary Clinton, or try to blur the distinction between Republicans and Democrats. I think we need a strong Republican.”

In stark contrast, here’s what Kevin Cramer, spokesman for Giuliani said after Tagg’s speech:

“We are here to choose a candidate who can win next November. It does us no good to stand on our beautiful, wonderful principles, and lose to Hillary Clinton.”

Courtesy of the Giuliani campaign themselves, you now have a very clear choice between two political philosophies that couldn’t be more diametrically opposed. (I would suggest this blog I wrote over at RedState as an in-depth look at this topic, long before Rudy Giuliani came into the picture.)

And about that straw poll… North Dakota has been thought to be going solidly to Giuliani up until now - after all, Rudy’s one of the only candidates (if not the only one) who has campaigned in the state and gotten endorsements from the state, and it is the place he hired a campaign director before even having one in South Carolina. But the results of the straw poll showed different results:

• Romney - 27%
• Giuliani - 22%
• Thompson - 21%
• McCain - 14%
• Huckabee - 4%
• Paul - 4%

This result prompted Jonathan Martin to remark, “I thought [ND] was Rudy country?”.

Here are the ONSITE VOTING RESULTS…

Mike Huckabee	488	51.26%
Mitt Romney	99	10.40%
Fred Thompson	77	8.09%
Tom Tancredo	65	6.83%%
Rudy Giuliani	60	6.30%
Duncan Hunter	54	5.67%
John McCain	30	3.15%
Sam Brownback	26	2.73%
Ron Paul	25	2.63%
Undecided	11	1.16%
Not Voting	7	0.74%

Then the altogether votes…Which we all know Mitt sent out a campaign memo to all his supporters encouraging them to vote…(Mike did not divulge in this trickery)…And yet Mitt only won the overall vote by 30 votes…Score one for Mike…

Mitt Romney	1595	27.62%
Mike Huckabee	1565	27.15%
Ron Paul	865	14.98%
Fred Thompson	564	9.77%
Undecided	329	5.70%
Sam Brownback	297	5.14%
Duncan Hunter	140	2.42%
Tom Tancredo	133	2.30%
Rudy Giuliani	107	1.85%
John McCain	81	1.40%
Not Voting	67	1.16%

I think this is key…It shows that although Mitt and company would like everyone to think that they are the Leaders of the Evangelical movement choice…They in fact are not…Mike Huckabee with a resounding victory…Look for a post later on what Mike needs to do to continue his upward climb in the polls…

The National Federation of Republican Women held their convention in California this weekend, and Rudy ran away with the straw poll:

• Rudy Giuliani: 50%
• Fred Thompson: 21%
• Mitt Romney: 14%
• Huckabee: 7%
• Hunter: 4%
• McCain: 2%

Hat-tip: Soren Dayton (who also has some interesting tidbits on the convention itself).

I don’t hold much value in straw poll results, but some on this site do. So, to show that one candidate doesn’t have a mandate on all straw polls, here are the results of the Ohio State Republican Party Straw Poll. They had a turnout of 2,300. From the Ohio GOP official site:

Fred Thompson 33%
Rudy Giuliani 24%
Mitt Romney 17%
John McCain 11%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Sam Brownback 4%
Duncan Hunter 2%
Ron Paul 1%
Tom Tancredo 1%

Here is some of their report on the event:

Political observers agree the race for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination is wide open at this point, and Ohio could play an important role in choosing the nominee when voters here go to the polls on March 4.

“Your participation in the straw poll not only provides an early indication of how Ohio will vote but also demostrates your support of building a strong grassroots organization through our state party,” DeWine told the nearly 2,300 Ohioans who cast a straw poll ballot.

Now, back to the race

John McCain has had a bad past week in Michigan. First, he losses his Michigan chairman Mike Cox, then he has two consecutive polls showing him plummeting in the state. But it would appear, judging by these straw poll results, that all is not lost for the Senator:

Romney - 39.12%

McCain - 26.56%

Paul - 10.83%

Giuliani - 10.62%

Thompson - 7.15%

At the Corner, David Freddoso explains why this is important:

This is an incredible result for several reasons. Romney’s win is no surprise - he paid for many volunteers to attend, perhaps as many as 200, and he leads in some state polls. But how about McCain finishing second, ahead of Giuliani? McCain had a lot of supporters there, but I’m told that he paid for no one.

This leaves me with a couple questions, is this just an aberration or a harbinger of things to come for McCain? Why does Romney still need to pay his supporters to come out and, you know, actually support him?

Just recieved this in the mail. I don’t think these are very relevent, but this one has been somewhat publicized, yet unattended by the big names. Score one for the Dunc.

Texas State GOP Straw Poll Results
41.1% Duncan Hunter (534 votes)
20.5% Fred Thompson (266 votes)
16.17% Ron Paul (217 votes)
6.4% Mike Huckabee (83 votes)
6% Rudy Giuliani (78 votes)
4.7% Mitt Romney (61 votes)
2.2% Ray McKinney (28 votes)
.77% John Cox (10 votes)
.62% John McCain (8 votes)
.46% Sam Brownback (6 votes)
.46% Tom Tancredo (6 votes)
.23% Hugh Cort (3 votes)

Here is analysis from townhall’s Matt Lewis. Townhall.com was the primary sponsor for the event.

1. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, came in 3rd. Most of his supporters, apparently, were not eligible to vote in the TX Straw Poll (only Delegates to the state convention were eligible). Though Paul turned out lots of supporters, it didn’t translate to votes, leading me to ask: If Paul can’t come in 1st place here — where can he win (other than the internet)? Frankly, it is entirely possible that Paul’s aggressive (and non-traditional) supporters may have actually turned some party regulars (who could vote) against the candidate.

2. This morning (on the video that will be posted later), I predicted Fred Thompson would have a surprisingly strong finish. He did. I think there are two reasons: For one, Thompson’s southern appeal fits in well in Texas. The other reason is that his announcement on Friday (that he will announce for president after Labor Day), gave him a little buzz going into the weekend.

3. Duncan Hunter is obviously a big winner here. He deserved to win because he showed up — and really worked it. He shook hands with hundreds of folks, and signed lots of autographs (mostly on tee-shirts). I can’t help but believe many of the votes Hunter got were due to his merely showing up and campaigning hard. The question is: Would these votes have also propelled Mike Huckabee to a victory here? We won’t know if this was a huge missed opportunity for Huckabee to keep his momentum going. Hunter took advantage, and for that, I give him kudos …

Background: Every election year, WHO channel 13 in Des Moines, Iowa sponsors a “Cast Your Kernel” booth at the state fair. It is open the entire length of the fair and offers fair-goers a chance to throw a kernel of corn (appropriate for Iowa) into a jar with their candidates’ name behind it. At the end of the fair, folks who evidently have nothing better to do count literally tens of thousands of kernels of corn to determine who the winner of the Kernel poll was. As far as I was able to tell, every major candidate gave a short speech at the site.

The results: The fair just ended a couple days ago, so the results have just been made official for WHO 13’s “Cast Your Kernel” poll! (These are just for fun - although they do look about right for the current state of the race…)

“Cast Your Kernel” Iowa State Fair Poll

Romney - 36%
Huckabee - 17%
Giuliani - 14%
Thompson - 13%
Tancredo - 5%
Brownback - 4%
Paul - 4%
McCain - 3%
Hunter - 2%
Cox - 1%

A couple of notes:

• Iowans really, really don’t like John McCain.
• The number of kernels cast for Republican candidates was 14,010; the number for Democrat candidates was 21,438 - a sign of the uphill battle the GOP has in 2008?
• Huckabee’s straw poll finish really helped him, as he was running behind Giuliani and Thompson until midway through the fair when he shot up to second place.
• Tancredo’s finish here and in the straw poll continues to show Iowan’s concern about illegal immigration.

As most of you know I had the chance to attend the Illinois Straw Poll in Springfield, Illinois on Thursday. It was a good event despite the rain and the post-rain swamp like atmosphere the ensued.

You can see a full account of the event with interviews of Craig Romney and Illinois State GOP Chair Andy McKenna at www.illinoisreview.com.

There are a few videos that I thought were special enough to show here. The first two are interviews I conducted with some Ron Paul supporters in from Chicago. (That’s Shi- Ka- go- for those who don’t know!)

The next video is an interview with Fred Thompson’s state chair, Bill Brady. He is a genuinely nice guy who was happy to do the interview. There are two things though, that I found ironic about this interview- let’s see if you can catch ‘em!

I just got back from the Illinois Straw Poll, here are the results:

1. Mitt Romney — 40.35%
2. Fred Thompson — 19.96%
3. Ron Paul — 18.87%
4. Rudy Giuliani — 11.61%
5. John McCain — 4.12%
6. Mike Huckabee — 3.04%
7. Sam Brownback — 1.08%
8. Duncan Hunter — .65%
9. Tom Tancredo — .33%

I have no idea of the number of votes cast although I would guess the total number of people at the picnic was 3-400. It was pouring rain, so I am sure this could account partially for the low attendance. It was at the Illinois State Fair, and the fairgrounds were empty. To his credit, Craig Romney stood out in the pouring rain and welcomed visitors and voters to the picnic, and I have a good interview of that.

While there I had the chance to meet Race42008 commenter “Bjalder” and family. I will have some videos up of the event tomorrow over at www.illinoisreview.com. I will post a couple interviews here that I did of Ron Paul supporters. It takes a while to download.

Now one point to make. I am 100% positive the Fred’s campaign tried to organize for this. It didn’t work. And McCain had a terrible showing, of course, not as bad as Tancredo, but still pretty bad.

Andy Mckenna, State GOP Chair had this to say:

“Congratulations to Mitt Romney, whose strong showing today indicates he has begun to put together a strong statewide organization. There’s no question that Illinois’ demographics closely match those of the United States and this could be an indication as to whom Illinois voters are leaning toward this coming February.”

After a good 48 hours of some solid rest and sleeping, I am ready to get back into the blogosphere and offer my thoughts on the straw poll.

The Ames straw poll is an absolutely incredible experience that anyone who loves politics must attend at least once in their lifetime. What makes it so great is because of the people involved — Iowans. They are really first-rate people who take great pride and responsibility in being first in the nation. I’ve worked Virginia and Ohio races before, and its not rare to get cursed out every other call you make because the people are so sick of being called. The same can’t be said for Iowans — often times you’ll actually be thanked for calling them — even if its the 20th call they got that day. They truly take pride in being first in the nation, and it should stay that way.

The Brownback crew is thrilled with our top 3 finish at the straw poll. The Senator was on fire at the straw poll — I have seen him give alot of speeches but he definitely gave his best at Ames. He does best in front of big crowds, and we definitely had an enormous crowd in our tent to the point where it was standing room only. Our multimedia staffer took extensive video and I’ll surely post it up as soon as its ready. The Senator also had the biggest and most enthusiastic crowd at his speech at Hilton Coliseum. We also had hundreds of volunteers from across the nation helping us out and working the logistics. It was an impressive, seamless operation.

What is also great about our finish is that we did not have to spend anywhere near the resources that other candidates poured into the straw poll, namely Mitt Romney and Tom Tancredo. We were outspent at an unfathomable rate by Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo was running TV and Radio ads, and was mailing several expensive direct mail pieces, plus was running on a hot-button issue. The Brownback campaign ran no ads. Secondly, we did not have to rely on the resources of an outside group — such as Huckabee did with the Fair Tax. Our supporters came to support Senator Brownback and his message and his views, and we know who they are because we signed them up and brought them in, and they will continue supporting us through the caucuses.

What the straw poll also shows is that Senator Brownback can connect with both heavily involved political activists and your average voter. Flash back to early March, the Senator placed in the top 3 at CPAC, and placed first there amongst social conservatives. As many of you know, CPAC is composed of the hardest working and most influential conservative activists from across the country. Top 3 wins in the two most important straw polls is very impressive, and shows that Senator Brownback’s message of uniting social and fiscal conservatives resonates with everybody.

Finally, I would just like to stress that our party is based on principles, not personalities. Senator Brownback is often criticized because he isn’t flashy or a smooth talker. But what voters ultimately look at is who shares their values and who is most closely aligned with them on the issues. The more voters learn about Senator Brownback, the more they like him. Brownback is also the only candidate that can unite the two most important wings of the Republican Party — social and fiscal conservatives. We need both wings to win, and no other candidate has the consistent, principled record to unite both.

Overall, the Straw Poll was an awesome experience and was a big win for Senator Brownback, and our campaign is going to continue moving forward, and you’ll see the campaign and the Senator more actively campaigning in South Carolina and New Hampshire. I have also decided to take some time off school to continue on with the campaign, and as always, will continue bringing updates to R42008!

To see some great pics about liveblogging from the straw poll (thanks to Leon Wolf) visit the Daily Brownbacker.

Note to Andrew Sullivan — are you really calling words out of Mother Theresa’s mouth vulgar? If so, thats a pretty sick thing to do. I think she contributed a little more to society then I would think most of us have…

Media Calls Ames for Huckabee; Disses Romney

The advantage of experiencing a flight mix-up on the way home from Ames, aside from being put up in a posh hotel by a major airline which will not be named, is that I had plenty of time to absorb the MSM narrative on the results of Ames. In an interesting turn of events, the MSM seems to be focusing almost entirely on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s come-from-behind second place showing, with Romney’s first-place finish being virtually ignored. It was Huckabee, not Romney, who was interviewed on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” this morning. And it was the Huckster, not the Mittster, who was the subject of the last few seconds of Tucker Carlson’s news analysis program on the same station that ended just moments ago. Need I inform you of the identity of the Ames candidate who appeared on “Hardball with Chris Matthews” tonight? I didn’t think so.

So how does one explain the MSM’s fascination with the former Arkansas governor? Is this some grand conspiracy to create a Romney black-out? Is conspiracy afoot? Here are the plausible theories that I’ve come up with, in no particular order:

1) Romney was expected to win Ames ever since the other major GOP candidates decided not to show. That meant that the story of Mitt’s victory became a non-story in the psyche of the MSM and the chattering classes, all of which became bored with the concept of a Romney victory months ago. Huckabee’s showing, on the other hand, was a major surprise to the punditry, which is why the Huckster is getting all of the press in the aftermath of Ames.

2) The MSM likes Gov. Huckabee because, as the governor himself admitted today on MSNBC, he is a different kind of Republican. The MSM likes Huckabee’s moderate-to-liberal views on fiscal and some domestic issues and is seizing this opportunity to promote him to the nation.

3) The MSM assumes that Huckabee, with his status as a former minister and a solid social conservative, is unelectable in 2008, and sees his Ames showing as an opportunity to promote a Republican who will be easily bested by Hillary Clinton.

4) The punditry feels that the relative performances of Romney, Huckabee, and Brownback makes Huckabee the true winner of Ames once the amount of money spent by each of the candidates to get their respective supporters to the polls is taken into account. I can attest to the general sentiment on the ground that Romney and Brownback were uber-organized, complete with scores of buses carrying loyal supporters, tasty barbecue, and games and activities for supporters. Huckabee had none of this. He spent less than $90,000 on Ames, and provided onlookers with watermelon and live music, courtesy of the governor himself.

So how did Huckabee manage to convince so many Iowans to self-motivate? The best theory I’ve heard at this point is that the governor utilized his status as an evangelical religious leader to connect with a network of likeminded sectarian institutions throughout the state, convincing the flock, so to speak, to make their way to Ames without the help of large, painted buses. In short, it was the Rove ‘04 grassroots strategy all over again. I doubt such a strategy will be useful in a general election in this environment, as it would require the GOP nominee to emphasize positions and issues that would paint him as out of touch with the priorities of the “it” voter of ‘08: disaffected independents. Still, this is politics, and Huckabee’s second-place victory is the mark of a good politician; he beat the big boys at their own game. Good for him.

Gov. Mike Huckabee claims victory in Ames yesterday. I agree:

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee claimed a victory with a second place finish in Saturday’s Republican Party of Iowa Straw Poll, saying he has momentum heading into the next phase of the campaign.

Despite a clear financial disadvantage, Huckabee said he came in with a strong second place on account of several factors, including his experience as an executive leader, the strength of his message and his vision for the future.

“This caps off a great week here in Iowa. My goal in Iowa was to introduce myself to voters in the Hawkeye State and create enough momentum to send our campaign to New Hampshire and South Carolina. We’ve met, and exceeded, that goal with resources both in terms of money and staff,” Huckabee said. “Tonight’s results prove that our message of results-driven optimism resonates with real people; that our organization can put together a successful effort; and that Iowa is winnable for us. We over-performed by having more votes and tickets purchased and having no paid media, unlike other candidates.”

Huckabee said he is especially proud of his strong showing because he spent far less money than the rest of the Republican field.

“We had a minimum amount of resources and made a maximum amount of gain,” Huckabee said.

Huckabee added his gratitude to the men and women of Iowa for their participation in the straw poll, while looking forward to a return visit to the Hawkeye state.

“I have to tip my hat to the dedicated caucus-goers who put up with this heated frenzy and came out to vote,” Huckabee said. “I am deeply grateful to all the families who invited me into their homes, met me in coffee shops and diners, shared their stories, and listened to my ideas on improving America.

“I am looking forward to returning to Iowa to work even harder to lift our campaign to victory by showing Americans there is a higher ground to be reached by bringing hope back to America with fairer taxes, a working health care system, energy self-reliance, and reinvestment in America’s future,” he added.

It remains to be seen whether Gov. Huckabee can use his 2nd place finish as a springboard to improve his standing in national polls and increase his financial support. This is a great start though. It is beyond argument that Huckabee needed this finish in order for any of that to come to fruition.

The real story from yesterday was the story on the ground where 10,000 less people voted than in 1999, and total attendance was estimated at about 30,000 (down from approx 38,000 in 1999). There appeared to be far less people than that to me though. To be honest, I have attended county fairs that seemed to have more people in attendance than Ames had yesterday. Does it seem possible that 10,000 less people could have voted, but attendance was only down by 8,000?

Here are the results:

1. Romney - 31.5%
2. Huckabee - 18.1%
3. Brownback - 15.3%
4. Tancredo - 13.7%
5. Paul - 9.1%
6. T Thompson - 7.3%
7. F Thompson - 1.6%
8. Giuliani - 1.3%
9. Hunter - 1.2%
10. McCain - 0.7%
11. Cox - 0.2%

Despite absolutely lousy organization, Huckabee surprises with a strong second place showing. Say goodbye to Tommy Thompson. Also interesting: the bottom five were all under 2%.

[UPDATE: We, collectively as R4'08, were a little off on our prediction. We got the first three places correct, but thought Rudy would come in much stronger at 8.25% and 4th place. After that it kind of fell apart.

The winner of the prediction contest was difficult to pick. Nobody chose the 11 in the correct order, but the person that came the closest (according to my editorial judgment!) is... Matt (not me, the other Matt). Matt correctly picked the top 6 finishers in the right order - an impressive feat to be sure - and with pretty accurate percentages as to boot. Congratulations, Matt!]

Just hours before the official results are in, here is the average of all 26 guesses from here at Race42008. Let’s see how close we were collectively:

Romney - 30.15%
Huckabee - 12.84%
Brownback - 11.88%
Giuliani - 8.25%
Thompson, T - 8.00%
Paul - 7.92%
Tancredo - 7.29%
Thompson, F - 5.90%
McCain - 4.21%
Hunter - 2.28%
Cox - 0.42%

I’ll announce the “winner” of the guessing contest sometime tonight or tomorrow morning in a frontpage post!

Pardon the horrid pun; I couldn’t resist. After spending the night in the R4′08 Batcave, known only to Kavon W. Nikrad, the lovely Mrs. Kavon, and a cornucopia of domesticated animals of various sorts, the motley crew that is the R4′08 Editorial Board, along with a few other allies, made our way through hundreds of miles of cornfields and farmland to Ames, Iowa.

Laura Ingraham is introducing the roster of candidates, who are speaking to the masses now. Why Laura looks so much like Ann Coulter I will never know; perhaps the specific strand of DNA that yields conservatism also produces tall, slender blonde vixens. Whatever the case, the crowd has been going wild for the first two candidates to speak, both of whom have apparently been successful at transporting large numbers of supporters to this location. Romney spoke first. Sounded a lot like George W. Bush from 2000, just far more articulate. Don’t think that will be enough for ‘08, regardless of either the telegenic qualities of the candidate or of the large family that the Mittster tends to bring on stage at his various campaign appearances.

Tancredo just finished his appeal to the crowd. His theme music was the timeless, “God Bless the USA,” which is apparently the primer for a warmer, fuzzier Tanc, complete with soft underbelly. That dream was dashed, however, when Tancredo again reiterated his call for immigrants to break all ties with their past nation and culture. As a major proponent of assimilation, even I find Tancredo’s message to be ill-formulated if not ill-conceived, especially if he is suggesting the severance of familial ties as the price of legal entry to this nation. As someone very wise once said, there he goes again.

There’s Laura again. While she’s speaking, let me assure you that there are a great number of attractive women here in the “press” area. But no time to mingle now. John Cox is coming onstage, and he’s tanned, rested, and…wait, who the heck is John Cox again? Ah, no matter. Time to mingle.

Thought I’d pop in here for a moment to give you an update on the happenings in Ames.

First off, there was a horribly violent thunderstorm last night that caused some pretty severe damage in the Twin Cities last night. DaveG (who flew in from Virginia) and I got off easy, as we were just kept up all night with thunder that shook the foundations of my home.

Poor Gary Matthew Miller had just laid new concrete last night, so he literally spent the entire evening shoveling water off his new sidewalk to try to save his new investment.

So we probably have 4 hours of sleep between us the three of us.

Here in Ames, it has got to be 100 degrees with 80 percent humidity. So that, along with the sleep deprivation I am experiencing, and the oppressive heat, I am not exactly thinking clearly. So please forgive me if if the reporting is sub par.

Time to go, but I will leave you with my first impression of events on the ground here: Romney and Brownback seem to have the most folks here by a longshot. We will see if that translates into a closer race than expected.

Michael Barone interviews Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Before the festivities start tomorrow, here’s my (pretty much completely useless) prediction on the results of the straw poll tomorrow:

Romney - 27%
Brownback - 16%
T Thompson - 11%
Tancredo - 10%
Huckabee - 9%
Giuliani - 9%
F Thompson - 6%
Paul - 5%
McCain - 3%
Hunter - 2%
Gingrich - 1% (as a write-in)
Keyes - 0.5% (write-in)
Cox - 0.5%

Leave your predictions in the comments, and we’ll see tomorrow night at 7:00 Central time who was closest!

[UPDATE: According to the Cyclone Conservative, about 40,000 tickets have been sold to the straw poll so far, so factor that into your prediction if you need to. In 1999, 37,000 tickets were sold and just under 24,000 votes were cast.]

The conventional wisdom is that Romney will win the Ames Straw Poll tomorrow, so the question really becomes: by how much? To this end, there are a lot of people out there setting expectations — expectations that are incredibly important this year, perhaps moreso than any other Ames year.

For example, Rudy Giuliani claimed this morning that Mitt Romney ought to be able to win at least by an 8:1 margin over his closest opponent - and that he ought to garner at least 24,000 votes doing so. Romney’s campaign responded:

A Romney adviser scoffs at the gambit, calling it “hysterical.”

“This is the funniest thing I’ve ever seen,” observes the Romney source, pointing out that 24,000 votes would be “nearly four times more voters than” then-Gov. Bush won at Ames in 1999.

Bush got 7,418 votes.

Not to mention that only 23,000 people voted total in the 1999 Straw Poll. So Rudy is setting the bar impossibly high for Mitt; meanwhile, some Mitt supporters, like Hugh Hewitt, are setting the bar impossibly high for Mitt’s opponents:

If Senator Brownback or Governor Huckabee don’t topple Governor Romney at Ames, the pressure on them to bow out of the race will be huge, and the financial realities even larger.

No one believes Brownback or Huckabee need to take first in order to avoid calamity in this race. A second, or maybe even third, place finish for either of them would be a tremendous boost to their campaigns. Expectations for them have to be to place in the top three, not to place first.

So how big does Romney have to win? Tom Bevan over at RealClearPolitics seems to think he has to pull of a 20-point victory:

With Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain not actively participating, no one will be surprised if Romney wins by 20 or more points.

Some history lessons would be advisable before declaring what margin of victory will be “large enough”, however. In the 1999 straw poll, George Bush was leading the Iowa polls by more than 20 points going into Ames. He won the straw poll by 10%. In the 1995 straw poll, the margin of victory was 0%, as Dole and Gramm ended up tied at 24% apiece. Third place was held by Buchanan at 18% - so a 6-point spread between the top three candidates. And in 1987, Robertson ended up beating Dole by a margin of 10%.

So the largest margin of victory ever at a Straw Poll has been 10%. Even when the frontrunner in Iowa was leading by more than twice that in the polls, they ended up winning Ames by 10%. So I’d say realistically, Romney needs to put at least 10% between himself and whoever comes in second place. Anything less could be considered a speedbump to his campaign; anything more could be considered a bonus.

Romney wins, Sam goes bankrupt trying?

Politico’s Martin has this up today:

Campaign aides for Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback have informed the Iowa GOP that they’ll each be bringing over 100 buses to the Ames Straw Poll Saturday. An Iowa Republican said that Romney was bringing about 125 onto the campus of Iowa State University and Brownback just over 100. Tommy Thompson is bringing the third most, about 75. All told, state party officials are planning on the arrival of 375 buses…

That Brownback, who had just $460K on hand at the end of the second quarter, is bringing in nearly as many buses as Romney indicates just how hard a push he’s making.

An astute reader breaks down the numbers though, in the comments section:

Talk about putting your eggs in one basket. Wow Sam. This makes no sense to me. I will be very curious to see what the actual count of buses is. If Brownback actually gets 100 buses there, good for him, I just don’t think he’s being honest right now. Here’s why I don’t believe him: 1)Brownback is registering less than 5% in the polls. If that translates at the straw poll that should be about 1200 votes. (5% of 24000 votes) Each bus holds about 50 people. That would mean that if the buses were full, he claims to be bringing 5000 people to the straw poll. 2) He doesn’t have the money for it. A bus rents for about $700 per day plus mileage. I understand from news reports that Romney already rented every bus in the state so Brownback would be paying for mileage to bring in buses from out of state. At $700 per bus, that’s $70,000 (plus mileage). If the buses are full he’s paying $35 per person to attend the event - that’s $175,000 (5,000 X $35). Then there’s the cost of his booth at the convention and the free food he’s providing. He had $460K as of JUNE 30 and he wasn’t raking in the dough. He’s paid salaries and expenses since then and I doubt his fundraising has improved. If he doesn’t come in with really BIG numbers at the straw poll this will BANKRUPT his campaign.

We are just three days out from the Ames Straw Poll right now - here are the public strategies of each of the campaigns for this seminal moment in the Race 4 2008:

• Mitt Romney has sent out a direct mailer, set up an 800 number for people to call for free tickets, bus rides, and food, and has set up incentives (like being on the Romney Wall of Fame and getting a free t-shirt) for folks who bring 5 people, knock on 50 doors, make 100 phone calls, or recruit people to ride the Romney buses to Ames. Team Mitt has rented more than 99 air conditioned buses for the event - at least one for every county in Iowa - and the guests on those buses will be treated to free food and a recorded message from Romney. Once at the straw poll, Romney’s tent will be replete with more free food (local Iowa BBQ), local bands, and yes, inflatable bouncy things for the kids. And finally, the Romney campaign is airing this new commercial starting today until Saturday:

• Sam Brownback has at least 45 interns at his Iowa headquarters, most of them with only one job: man the phones. Interns make phone calls to Iowans twelve hours a day, six days a week to try and round up support for the Ames Straw Poll. And recently, they have a pretty unique way of doing it, too: they are calling Iowans who support John McCain and telling them, “McCain has chosen not to participate in the straw poll, and we’d like you to show your support for his values by voting for Brownback.” Officials in the Brownback campaign say their phone efforts have so far “exceeded our internal expectations.” Team Brownback also is recruiting people to be bus captains, that is, to sign up at least 50 people to ride a bus together to Ames on Saturday. They are using a military theme for the campaign, saying that volunteers are joining the “Brownback Army” and anyone interested in going to Ames should call their “Brownback Bus General”. Once at the site, Sam’s tent will be the site of what his campaign calls “An afternoon of prayer and celebration” (the mailer even has the Holy Spirit as a dove and some heavenly beams of light) - a direct appeal to religious conservatives. Norma McCorvey, the Roe of Roe v Wade, will be at Sam’s tent as well, explaining her conversion to the pro-life camp. (Bonus points for anyone who can spot the irony there.)
• Mike Huckabee doesn’t have any sort of transportation organization to get people to Ames, but he is offering free tickets like the other campaigns, and the week leading up to the straw poll he is spending touring dozens of cities in Iowa encouraging people to go there and vote for him. Mike has told reporters that several of Sam Brownback’s supporters have told him they now plan on supporting him at Ames instead because of the recent tussle Sam and Mike had about religious issues, and that he is aiming for a third place finish in the poll (although a 4th or 5th place finish “wouldn’t be a campaign ender” either). Once at Ames, Mike plans on attracting folks to his tent by offering the famous Hope watermelons from Arkansas. Hope watermelons are the largest in the world, and Huck will be displaying 150-pounders at his tent to attract attention.
• Tom Tancredo has 58 buses setup to go to Ames, and he also is offering free tickets and has been spending all his time recently in Iowa rounding up supporters for the straw poll. His campaign is also encouraging supporters to do “door to door literature drops” throughout Iowa leading up to Saturday, with literature, of course, provided by Tancredo’s Iowa office. He is also building what his campaign officially calls “The Army Against Amnesty” to support Tom at Ames.
• Tommy Thompson has buses and tickets available for free to his supporters, and has a non-800 phone number available for folks to call for more information. He is aiming for a first or second place finish at the straw poll; otherwise, he says, he will probably drop out of the race. He has been making his “Common Sense Solutions” tour across Iowa lately, and has really camped out in the state since the campaign began. I could not find any further details of his plans anywhere.
• Duncan Hunter has no organization that I could find anywhere, and is even making his supporters buy their own tickets to the straw poll.
• Ron Paul’s supporters are encouraging one another to promise support to Mitt Romney to secure free transportation to Ames, and then vote for Ron Paul once they get there. The Paul campaign has purchased 500 tickets that they are giving out to “eligible Iowa residents” for the straw poll.

Here’s a well-written article up over at Real Clear Politics on the Straw Poll, which is only 9 days away…

Ames Matters
Reid Wilson

On August 11, the eyes of the political pundit class will be focused on Ames, Iowa, smack in the middle of the first state in the nation to cast its votes for President of the United States. In Ames, on what will more likely than not be a sweltering day on the campus of Iowa State University, more than 25,000 Republican activists are expected to cast ballots in the quadrennial Republican Party straw poll. It is only a test, many political strategists insist, of the organizational strength of GOP presidential campaigns, but it is a test that matters: If flunked, this test will more than likely chase a few contenders from the race for the White House.

When the results are in, the media will use the event, approximately five months before the state’s caucuses in January, to judge the state of the field. As Little League coaches around the nation tell their players, it’s not whether the candidates win or lose, it’s how they play the game. But in this game, no one is going for the sportsmanship award.

The most pressing issue at hand for the ten candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination is managing expectations. For some candidates, meeting or beating those expectations is worth as much as a win in a primary. Failing to meet them, on the other hand, can severely damage a campaign.

This year, it is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney who needs a big win to even reach expectations. After former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator John McCain announced they would not participate in the straw poll, expectations for Romney, the only front-running candidate officially in the race to continue to participate, shot through the roof. As he may find out, “to go in as a leader isn’t always the best place to be,” said Iowa pollster Ann Selzer.

Other campaigns are trying to saddle Romney with the burden of an expected victory. “I anticipate Mitt Romney wins,” says Republican strategist Bay Buchanan, currently working for Congressman Tom Tancredo, echoing what many strategists and pundits believe. “If he doesn’t come in with numbers equivalent to what George Bush came in with,” Buchanan said, “he’s got something to answer for.” Bush won 31% of the vote in 1999.

Even if he does win with an impressive total, says Selzer, Romney is unlikely to earn the large bounce that would ordinarily accompany the win. “If you win something where some people have chosen not to compete, it’s sort of like winning the Moscow Olympics.” If Romney wins, she said,” he’s not going to get as big a bounce because that’s expected.”

Romney has the money and organization to continue should the worst happen. “Ames is an important part of cultivating our organization as we make our way towards January,” said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden. Does he worry about failing to meet expectations? “Worrying is only for people without a plan.”

For candidates without the bank accounts to continue, Ames is much more important. They must carefully manage expectations so that, in whatever place they finish, they are seen as outperforming. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has said he will have to reconsider his future in the race if he doesn’t finish in the top two or three. Buchanan, setting the bar low, says her candidate, Tancredo, “will be in the top half at the straw poll.” That means a finish of fifth or better. A spokeswoman for former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson tried to keep expectations low when she said her candidate will finish in the top half, but was undercut when Thompson told The Politico, “If I don’t win, I’ll be shocked.”

While the future is uncertain for Huckabee and Thompson, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback’s campaign will stick around “for the long haul,” said campaign manager Rob Wasinger. Continuing Brownback’s recent efforts to portray Romney as his main opponent, Wasinger noted the cost of the event. “This is kind of like David and Goliath,” he said. “And we’re David.”

The event, run as a fundraiser by the state’s Republican Party, always costs campaigns thousands of hard-raised dollars. Tent locations alone start at $15,000, and the $35 ticket price to get a ballot is rarely forked over by the person who will actually cast the vote. “Iowans don’t like to buy their own tickets for the straw poll,” said M.E. Sprengelmeyer, a political writer for the Rocky Mountain News. The campaigns will rent busses, contract the best barbeque joints in the state to feed their voters, and hire bands to keep people at their tents.

Brownback has contracted Famous Dave’s Barbeque, and among the attractions to his tent will be Stephen McEveety, a producer of the 2004 movie “The Passion of the Christ.” Romney is bringing in local bands and feeding his voters Hickory Park Barbeque. Tommy Thompson will offer Legends Restaurant Barbeque alongside a tent dedicated, says spokeswoman Danielle Chaplick, to healthy lifestyles.

If Romney does pull off a big win, as expected, the battle will be for second and third place. And despite their non-participation, Giuliani, McCain and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson could play big roles. The Iowa Republican Party decided to include their names on the straw poll ballot, originally to shame them into participating. That decision was not popular with rival campaigns. “I would have preferred none of them be on the ballot,” Buchanan said.

The three no-shows will perform worse than they would have had they participated, but, says Sprengelmeyer, they are likely to attract substantial votes. “Everyone that’s below” the top candidates, he said, “who aren’t even campaigning are going to have to seriously reevaluate whether they should stay in the race.”

In a field with a well-defined top tier and a more evenly-balanced second tier, there will be some surprises. Based on his conversations with voters, Sprengelmeyer points to one scenario that would catch many by surprise. Ask a voter, he says, who is running on the GOP side. “They might come up with half the names, but Tommy Thompson is definitely one of them.” Thompson has campaigned almost exclusively in Iowa and is pinning his hopes on the Hawkeye State. “He stands the most to gain from this process,” agrees Selzer. Then again, she says, Thompson “has to do well in order to stay in the race.”

A candidate’s success will depend upon which sort of voters dominate the straw poll. If establishment Republicans control the event, Romney is likely to dominate, with solid performances from Giuliani and Fred Thompson. If voters go to vote for a cause, an outsider will perform better than expected. Buchanan, whose candidate is most readily identified with efforts to stop illegal immigration, hopes it is the latter. “People aren’t just going to go” to Ames, she said, detailing a day that often includes hopping on a bus and driving several hours to cast a single ballot. “There has to be a cause.”

The absence of McCain, Giuliani and Fred Thompson made some speculate that the Iowa straw poll won’t matter. But in the middle of Congress’ August recess, when there is little else on which to pontificate, pundits will make due with the results from Ames.

It is likely that staff members for a few campaigns will be looking for new jobs the following week, thanks to a poor showing. For others, especially the second tier candidates, a win, place or show could dramatically alter their position in the race. Every campaign calls the straw poll a “test of organization.” More than any in the campaign so far, it is a test everyone must ace, but a test with a heavy and demanding curve.

Yes, it’s worthless. No, it doesn’t mean anything. So don’t complain in the comments. This is just for fun for those of you, like me, who just can’t get enough political results - even from a mock election at a county fair. So here it is, some weekend fun for you (with a hat tip to Keith at Iowans for Romney):

Johnson County Fair Mock Election Results

Romney - 31.2%
Giuliani - 15.1%
F Thompson - 10.1%
Brownback - 7.0%
Gingrich - 5.5%
McCain - 5.5%
Huckabee - 5.0%
T Thompson - 4.0%
Paul - 4.0%
Tancredo - 3.0%
Hunter - 1.0%

There’s something there for just about everyone.

“If I don’t win, I’ll be shocked.”

-Tommy Thompson, on his chances at the Ames Straw Poll in 16 days.

Tommy has said if he doesn’t place in the top two in Ames, he will drop out of the race. The race for second place in Ames is going to be the most anticipated story of August. Will Thompson, who has camped out in Iowa since last December organizing a ground game, be able to pull off a second-place finish? Will Brownback, who is courting conservatives hard in the state, be able to overcome him? Will Huckabee, who has said if he isn’t in the top tier of candidates after Ames that he would drop out of the race as well, be able to hold enough townhall meetings and display enough of his charisma to overcome his lack of organization? Will Ron Paul finally be able to funnel internet support into real votes? And where will Rudy and McCain fall when all is said and done?

Exactly three weeks out from the Ames Straw Poll, this past weekend the Iowa GOP set the speaking order and the names on the ballot for the event. They are as follows:

Speaking Order (chosen randomly)

Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
John Cox
Ron Paul
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
Tommy Thompson
Sam Brownback

Straw Poll Ballot (alphabetical order)

Brownback
Cox
Giuliani
Huckabee
Hunter
McCain
Paul
Romney
Tancredo
Fred Thompson
Tommy Thompson

Mitt Romney won the bidding for the closest piece of real estate, as expected.

Voting begins at 10 AM and ends at 6 PM. Candidate speeches begin with Romney at 2:00 PM.

The ballot is the same as the draft released last month except with Gilmore taken off and Fred Thompson, who will be skipping the straw poll, added.

Additionally, the Iowa GOP released the results of the last three Ames Straw Polls as compared to the results of the caucuses the next year. In 1999, Bush and Forbes finished tops in Ames; they finished tops in the caucuses as well. In 1995, Dole finished tops at Ames and tops in the caucuses. And in 1987, Robertson and Dole finished tops at Ames and as the top two in the caucuses as well.

Or, put another way: no candidate has ever won the Iowa caucuses without placing in the top two at Ames.