Okay, that was fun. Beyond fun, while I don’t take straw polls very seriously, I do think there may be a few things we can learn from the earlier exercise.
One is that some people do take this stuff seriously. Why? What do they think they or their candidates gain from stuffing the ballot box in a meaningless survey? Not a new thought, but one I return to every time I see something like this play out.
Two is that there are three (or perhaps two and a half) candidates who have organized web cadres – Palin, Romney, and to a lesser extent Gary Johnson. While Palin’s was much the most efficient, still this is interesting to see and probably good for all three of them.
Three is that Johnson’s support is nothing like Ron Paul’s. Commenter Gary Johnson 2012 seemed to have it nailed when he wrote:
Johnson clearly has a good chunk of the Ron Paul netroots behind him, but there’s a lot of Paul purists who aren’t supporting Johnson this time around, because of Johnson’s moderated stances on the issues. I think Johnson will more than make up for any loss of the Ron Paul voters by picking up more war-weary and socially moderate mainstream/conventional Republican voters, but I don’t think Johnson will have the same Internet force that Paul commanded.
This is probably both good and bad for Johnson – the behavior of the Paulistas alienated a great many people last time, but they were also the driving force behind his surprising run.
Four is the under-performer – why did Huckabee do so badly? Are his web supporters disorganized? Most likely, this particular poll slipped by under their radar, but perhaps this is a sign that Huckabee isn’t putting any effort into web organizing because he isn’t running. Who knows?
Five is the rest, about whom there’s little to say.
Anyway, let’s move on to another round of meaninglessness. This time we’ll do it Illinoisguy’s way. We want you to list your three favorite candidates, in order (no ties, you have to choose). Then list the three candidates you think most likely to get the nomination.
Here are my choices, as an example:
Preferred
Likely
In actuality, Palin is tied with Romney for my third choice, but I flipped a coin and picked Palin. The same with the ‘likely’ choices – I really don’t think there’s any meaningful difference among the Big Three.
Please refrain from joke candidates, like Daffy Duck, Barack Obama, and Rick Santorum. Well, okay, we’ll count votes for Daffy, but I draw the line there.
Okay, go for it. Let’s all have fun.
Because one of my primary goals in life is to please Illinoisguy, here is a poll on presidential preferences. No doubt someone will complain that I left somebody off the list, but I tried to limit it to at least semi-serious possibilities (I had to stretch that to the limit to include Jeb Bush and Rick Santorum, but I know each has their adherents here).
Sorry, MWS, I left Buchanan off because it’s limited to Republicans (and because of the semi-serious restriction).
You can only vote for one (sorry, it’s a free service — you get what you pay for), and you can only vote once unless you switch to a different IP, which somebody will no doubt do.
Governor Mike Huckabee has won the 2009 Values Voter 2012 straw poll.
Mike Huckabee 170 votes – 28.5%
Mitt Romney 74 votes – 12.4%
Tim Pawlenty 73 votes – 12.2%
Sarah Palin 72 votes – 12.1%
Mike Pence 71 votes – 11.9%
Newt Gingrich 40 votes – 6.7%
Bobby Jindal 28 votes – 4.7%
Rick Santorum 15 votes – 2.5%
Ron Paul 13 votes – 2.2%
Undecided 31 votes – 5.2%
Other 10 votes – 1.7%
Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) Netroots Nation 2009 Straw Poll
Of the main contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination for President, please indicate who, in your opinion, would be the easiest to beat.
- Sarah Palin 36%
- Rick Santorum 20%
- Bobby Jindal 12%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Rudy Giuliani 5%
- Jeb Bush 4%
- Jon Kyl 3%
- Mike Huckabee 2%
- Tim Pawlenty 1%
- Mitt Romney 1%
Please indicate if you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
- Strongly approve 51%
- Somewhat approve 44%
- Somewhat disapprove 3%
- Strongly disapprove 2%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 85% / 2% (+83%)
- Jon Stewart 82% / 2% (+80%)
- Stephen Colbert 76% / 2% (+74%)
- Joe Sestak 46% / 8% (+38%)
- Arlen Specter 15% / 44% (-29%)
- Sarah Palin 1% / 88% (-87%)
- Rush Limbaugh 0% / 88% (-88%)
Please read the pairs of statements below and for each indicate if the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
- I will support a health care reform bill even without a public option as long as it expands affordable coverage to all Americans and prevents insurance companies from denying coverage. 26%
- A public option is the only way to truly hold insurance companies accountable and bring down costs and I will not support a health care reform bill without it. 53%
- I support the House compromise on the energy bill because it’s an important first step to capping carbon emissions and averting a climate crisis. 46%
- I oppose the House compromise on the energy bill because it creates too many loopholes for fossil fuel interests and doesn’t do enough to address the climate crisis. 27%
- I’d support legislation that makes it easier for workers to organize, even without so-called “card check” provisions, because the other measures take important steps in protecting workers. 45%
- I can’t support legislation to make it easier for workers to organize without the so-called “card check” provisions that will ensure workers can organize without intimidation or harassment. 28%
- The best way to move a progressive agenda forward is for progressives to generally support Obama on his key initiatives, taking on his enemies and coordinating messages against Republicans and the corporate special interests standing in the way of reform. 41%
- The best way to move a progressive agenda forward is for progressives to criticize President Obama when necessary and take on the Democrats, as well as Republicans and the corporate special interests, when they also stand in the way of reform. 35%
A straw poll was taken by John J. Miller yesterday at the Young America’s Foundation (YAF) national conference going on right now. The attending students were asked which of the current 2012 candidates they preferred. They are young, smart, and enthusiastic about conservative values and principles.
Without looking, see if you can guess who came in first and second place. 
On the heels of the surfacing of John Ensign’s affair, John Thune stands to gain more than arguably any other Republican in the Senate (as noted by Max Twain in his most recent Presidential Power Ranking):
U.S. Sen. John Thune is vying to become chairman of the Republican Senate Policy Committee, a post that’s being vacated by U.S. Sen. John Ensign, R-Nevada.
Ensign announced that he would quit his leadership position after admitting that he had an affair with one of his staffers.
“I think we need to be coming up with positive, forward-looking creative policy ideas and solutions for the future. I think that’s an area I can contribute in,” Thune said.
Andi L. Fouberg, Thune’s communications director, said Thursday that Thune has been making calls about where his support will be.
…The unanticipated situation brings another blow to Republicans at the national level. Party members are debating what course Ensign should take.
Some suggest Ensign could survive the storm, but others feel Ensign’s affair could hurt the party.
For Thune, who was elected to the U.S. House before defeating incumbent U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle, serving as chairman of the GOP Senate Policy Committee would enhance his status in Washington.
That could be important because when chatter erupts about Thune’s future, it often involves talk about a possible vice presidential nomination or even a run for president.
Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst for the Cook Political Report, says any promotion such as this won’t hurt Thune’s future. However, she cautions that these decisions also can’t be influenced.
“You have 40 members voting, and they will do what they want. And it is not a bad start up the ladder,” Duffy said.
Politico reports that Obama’s decision to extend “limited benefits” to same-sex partners of federal employees has failed to satisfy gay rights activists:
Obama said he also favors extending health and retirement benefits to same-sex partners of federal employees but that such a move is currently prohibited by the Defense of Marriage Act, or DOMA, which passed in 1996.
“Are they kidding us? Domestic partnership benefits WITHOUT health insurance because of DOMA?” gay fundraiser and activist David Mixner told POLITICO in an e-mail. “It is like rubbing salt in the wound.”
“From what you describe, it seems to me to fall very far short,” said C. Dixon Osburn, a gay activist in Washington. “A patchwork approach that doesn’t amount to a full array of benefits one would want or expect … does not seem like a very good olive branch.”
Thursday, the Washington Times published a nice summary of Marco Rubio’s campaign message:
But the state’s former House speaker, who is the conservative underdog in a contest that will be decided in a party primary next year, has hit the campaign trail early, and he expects to rally voters with his message of smaller government, a flat tax and a stronger defense posture.
…His message includes a sharp attack on the $787 billion federal economic-stimulus package, which Mr. Crist embraced early this year, his support for a $1 a pack cigarette-tax increase and his record of appointing “the most liberal members for the state Supreme Court in our state’s history.”
Mr. Rubio points out that Mr. Crist “just didn’t accept the dollars [from the stimulus package], but he actually campagined in favor of it” – adding that “the stimulus package is indicative and illustrative of everything that’s wrong with the federal government today.”
With almost a year and a half until election day and Rubio turning in such a strong showing in the recent Pasco County straw poll, perhaps Good Time Charlie should worry…
Hey, NPR’s not all bad. They’ve got a nifty 2012 Republican Presidential Bracketology to coincide with March Madness. They’ve got some long-shots and no-shots among the 32 candidates listed. This is to be expected as the GOP never has 32 credible candidates. Some of the more jaw-dropping potential candidates:
There are two potential upsets going on right now, both in the right bracket. #9 Meg Whitman is leading #8 John Thune, and #12 Sam Brownback is leading #5 Mitch Daniels. There are some that are very close to an upset.
In the left bracket, #7-Paul Ryan is only leading #10-John Kyl 54-45%. #8-Jim Demint is barely holding off Corker, 53-46%.
Go and vote.
(Hat Tip: Club for Growth.)
Mitt Romney 49.0%
Mike Huckabee 9.8%
Rudy Giuliani 6.9%
Sarah Palin 6.9%
Newt Gingrich 5.9%
Bobby Jindal 4.9%
Charlie Crist 2.9%
Aron Goldman 2.0%
Gary Johnson 2.0%
Tim Pawlenty 2.0%
David Petraeus 2.0%
Mark Sanford 2.0%
Haley Barbour 1.0%
Rush Limbaugh 1.0%
John McCain 1.0%
Undecided 2.0%
Max is telling us to hunker down for a long campaign between the top 6 finishers at CPAC:
The early polling indicates a 6-way race between Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul( or due to his age, someone similar carrying the banner for libertarians).
He suggests others may join. The big problem here is that the CPAC strawpoll is pretty well worthless as a predictor of electoral fortunes or even top candidates.
The poll makes no sense when compared to public polls of Republican voters. Where’s the disparity? You have to follow the numbers. The Internals of the poll. First thing that jumps out right away is that 52% of the people who voted in this poll are students, 59% are under the age of 25. At least 59% are male. 12% refused to say. So, if we assumed the “refuse to say” are half male and half female, that would mean this polling sample is 59% under the age of 25, 52% college students, and 65% male. Is there anywhere this demographic makes sense ?
13% of the voters were from sponsoring organizations (mostly inside the beltway folks.) While 48 states were represented in the survey, can we say that they were represented proportionally? The beltway, Northern Virginia, and Southern Maryland will be far better represented than other states by nature of geography and having an easier time getting to where CPAC is held.
The CPAC strawpoll is a notoriously bad predictor. In 1999, it awarded the strawpoll victory to Steve Forbes. In 2005 and 2006, it went to George Allen, and this is Mitt Romney’s hat trick.
What states are most likely under-represented? The ones that will decide the nomation. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
The bottom line: if you want to hold a conference so that big name conservatives can easily get there, hold it in Washington. If you want to hold a conference that will tell you anything about 2012, hold a simultaneous 3-day conference in Concord, Des Moines, and Charleston.
Mitt Romney comes out on top:
Thinking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election, who would you vote for as the next Republican nominee for President?
- Florida Governor Charlie Crist
- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich
- Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani
- Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
- Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
- Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
- Texas Representative Ron Paul
- Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
- Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
- South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford
- Undecided
- Write-In ____________________________
Unfortunately, since we don’t yet have a polling function, card check rules apply. Please indicate your selection by writing the last name of your preferred candidate in the comments section.
Click here to see the actual results from CPAC. (H/T: Falz)
Michelle Malkin has alerted us to the fact that tomorrow night’s debate moderator, Gwen Ifill, is set to publish a nearly 300 page biography of Barack Obama on January 20th, 2009.
Please call the Commission on Presidential Debates and demand that Ifill acknowledge her conflict of interest at the beginning of the debate at- 202-872-1020. You can also email the Executive Director of the Debates Commission, at jb@debates.org .
Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney narrowly beat John McCain, 35 to 34 percent, in a straw poll of conservative political activists gathered Saturday in Washington – a vote that is viewed as a barometer of support from that major GOP voting bloc.
The announcement of Romney’s win was greeted by cheers from the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference. McCain is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
Roughly three-quarters of the votes in the three-day CPAC 2008 straw poll were cast before Mitt Romney dropped out of the presidential race, and one-quarter after his withdrawal.
In votes cast before Romney left the race, he beat McCain 44 to 27 percent. Among votes gathered after Romney’s withdrawal, McCain led Romney 37 to 32 percent.
Mike Huckabee received 12 percent of the vote in the straw poll overall, and Ron Paul received 10 percent. Those results were virtually unchanged among just those votes taken after Romney’s withdrawal.
Thirty-one percent said that if John McCain were the GOP presidential nominee, they would either vote for someone else, or not vote at all.
Huckabee fared even worse in the survey – 36 percent said they would not support him, or would back someone else, if he were the Republican nominee.
Just in:
D.C. is winner take all. McCain won in 2000.
From the Sonoran Alliance
The county also gave an indication of who the party faithful is supporting as the Republican nominee. Here are the results out of 721 ballots cast:
Overall Votes (662 Votes):
#1 – Mitt Romney – 28.4% (188)
#2 – Fred Thomson – 18.3% (121)
#3 – Ron Paul – 17.4% (115)
#4 – Duncan Hunter – 14.0% (93)
#5 – John McCain – 12.1% (80)
#6 – Rudy Giuliani – 5.0% (33)
#7 – Mike Huckabee – 4.8% (32)Most Acceptable (1781 Votes):
#1 – Fred Thompson – 20.8% (370)
#2 – Duncan Hunter – 20.1% (358)
#3 – Mitt Romney – 20.0% (356)
#4 – Rudy Giuliani – 13.2% (235)
#5 – Mike Huckabee – 11.6% (207)
#6 – John McCain – 7.6% (135)
#7 – Ron Paul – 6.7% (120)Most Unacceptable (1949 votes):
#1 – John McCain – 21.9% (427)
#2 – Ron Paul – 20.3% (396)
#3 – Rudy Giuliani – 18.3% (357)
#4 – Mike Huckabee – 17.4% (340)
#5 – Duncan Hunter – 8.0% (156)
#6 – Fred Thompson – 7.8% (152)
#7 – Mitt Romney – 6.2% (121 )
We knew this would be a primary campaign of contrasts. Each candidate has their own strategy for winning the nomination, which makes it exciting to watch, and we knew each candidate had their own idea of a winning platform as well. For Governor Romney, that platform has been articulated as his now infamous three-legged stool. For Mayor Giuliani, pundits have long suspected he was replacing the social conservative leg with the “electability” leg.
Well, according to AP reports out of North Dakota (where the state Republican Party recently held a dinner and straw poll – more on that later), it looks like the Giuliani campaign is throwing out the stool all together and just going with the electability argument now.
Here’s what Mitt’s son Tagg said at the ND dinner:
“Personally, I think the best way to beat Hillary Clinton is not to water down our values, or to try to act more like Hillary Clinton, or try to blur the distinction between Republicans and Democrats. I think we need a strong Republican.”
In stark contrast, here’s what Kevin Cramer, spokesman for Giuliani said after Tagg’s speech:
“We are here to choose a candidate who can win next November. It does us no good to stand on our beautiful, wonderful principles, and lose to Hillary Clinton.”
Courtesy of the Giuliani campaign themselves, you now have a very clear choice between two political philosophies that couldn’t be more diametrically opposed. (I would suggest this blog I wrote over at RedState as an in-depth look at this topic, long before Rudy Giuliani came into the picture.)
And about that straw poll… North Dakota has been thought to be going solidly to Giuliani up until now – after all, Rudy’s one of the only candidates (if not the only one) who has campaigned in the state and gotten endorsements from the state, and it is the place he hired a campaign director before even having one in South Carolina. But the results of the straw poll showed different results:
This result prompted Jonathan Martin to remark, “I thought [ND] was Rudy country?”.
Here are the ONSITE VOTING RESULTS…
Mike Huckabee 488 51.26% Mitt Romney 99 10.40% Fred Thompson 77 8.09% Tom Tancredo 65 6.83%% Rudy Giuliani 60 6.30% Duncan Hunter 54 5.67% John McCain 30 3.15% Sam Brownback 26 2.73% Ron Paul 25 2.63% Undecided 11 1.16% Not Voting 7 0.74%
Then the altogether votes…Which we all know Mitt sent out a campaign memo to all his supporters encouraging them to vote…(Mike did not divulge in this trickery)…And yet Mitt only won the overall vote by 30 votes…Score one for Mike…
Mitt Romney 1595 27.62% Mike Huckabee 1565 27.15% Ron Paul 865 14.98% Fred Thompson 564 9.77% Undecided 329 5.70% Sam Brownback 297 5.14% Duncan Hunter 140 2.42% Tom Tancredo 133 2.30% Rudy Giuliani 107 1.85% John McCain 81 1.40% Not Voting 67 1.16%
I think this is key…It shows that although Mitt and company would like everyone to think that they are the Leaders of the Evangelical movement choice…They in fact are not…Mike Huckabee with a resounding victory…Look for a post later on what Mike needs to do to continue his upward climb in the polls…
The National Federation of Republican Women held their convention in California this weekend, and Rudy ran away with the straw poll:
Hat-tip: Soren Dayton (who also has some interesting tidbits on the convention itself).
I don’t hold much value in straw poll results, but some on this site do. So, to show that one candidate doesn’t have a mandate on all straw polls, here are the results of the Ohio State Republican Party Straw Poll. They had a turnout of 2,300. From the Ohio GOP official site:
Here is some of their report on the event:
“Your participation in the straw poll not only provides an early indication of how Ohio will vote but also demostrates your support of building a strong grassroots organization through our state party,” DeWine told the nearly 2,300 Ohioans who cast a straw poll ballot.
Now, back to the race
John McCain has had a bad past week in Michigan. First, he losses his Michigan chairman Mike Cox, then he has two consecutive polls showing him plummeting in the state. But it would appear, judging by these straw poll results, that all is not lost for the Senator:
Romney – 39.12%
McCain – 26.56%
Paul – 10.83%
Giuliani – 10.62%
Thompson – 7.15%
At the Corner, David Freddoso explains why this is important:
This is an incredible result for several reasons. Romney’s win is no surprise – he paid for many volunteers to attend, perhaps as many as 200, and he leads in some state polls. But how about McCain finishing second, ahead of Giuliani? McCain had a lot of supporters there, but I’m told that he paid for no one.
This leaves me with a couple questions, is this just an aberration or a harbinger of things to come for McCain? Why does Romney still need to pay his supporters to come out and, you know, actually support him?
Just recieved this in the mail. I don’t think these are very relevent, but this one has been somewhat publicized, yet unattended by the big names. Score one for the Dunc.
Texas State GOP Straw Poll Results
41.1% Duncan Hunter (534 votes)
20.5% Fred Thompson (266 votes)
16.17% Ron Paul (217 votes)
6.4% Mike Huckabee (83 votes)
6% Rudy Giuliani (78 votes)
4.7% Mitt Romney (61 votes)
2.2% Ray McKinney (28 votes)
.77% John Cox (10 votes)
.62% John McCain (8 votes)
.46% Sam Brownback (6 votes)
.46% Tom Tancredo (6 votes)
.23% Hugh Cort (3 votes)
Here is analysis from townhall’s Matt Lewis. Townhall.com was the primary sponsor for the event.
1. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, came in 3rd. Most of his supporters, apparently, were not eligible to vote in the TX Straw Poll (only Delegates to the state convention were eligible). Though Paul turned out lots of supporters, it didn’t translate to votes, leading me to ask: If Paul can’t come in 1st place here — where can he win (other than the internet)? Frankly, it is entirely possible that Paul’s aggressive (and non-traditional) supporters may have actually turned some party regulars (who could vote) against the candidate.
2. This morning (on the video that will be posted later), I predicted Fred Thompson would have a surprisingly strong finish. He did. I think there are two reasons: For one, Thompson’s southern appeal fits in well in Texas. The other reason is that his announcement on Friday (that he will announce for president after Labor Day), gave him a little buzz going into the weekend.
3. Duncan Hunter is obviously a big winner here. He deserved to win because he showed up — and really worked it. He shook hands with hundreds of folks, and signed lots of autographs (mostly on tee-shirts). I can’t help but believe many of the votes Hunter got were due to his merely showing up and campaigning hard. The question is: Would these votes have also propelled Mike Huckabee to a victory here? We won’t know if this was a huge missed opportunity for Huckabee to keep his momentum going. Hunter took advantage, and for that, I give him kudos …
Background: Every election year, WHO channel 13 in Des Moines, Iowa sponsors a “Cast Your Kernel” booth at the state fair. It is open the entire length of the fair and offers fair-goers a chance to throw a kernel of corn (appropriate for Iowa) into a jar with their candidates’ name behind it. At the end of the fair, folks who evidently have nothing better to do count literally tens of thousands of kernels of corn to determine who the winner of the Kernel poll was. As far as I was able to tell, every major candidate gave a short speech at the site.
The results: The fair just ended a couple days ago, so the results have just been made official for WHO 13’s “Cast Your Kernel” poll! (These are just for fun – although they do look about right for the current state of the race…)
“Cast Your Kernel” Iowa State Fair Poll
Romney – 36%
Huckabee – 17%
Giuliani – 14%
Thompson – 13%
Tancredo – 5%
Brownback – 4%
Paul – 4%
McCain – 3%
Hunter – 2%
Cox – 1%
A couple of notes:
As most of you know I had the chance to attend the Illinois Straw Poll in Springfield, Illinois on Thursday. It was a good event despite the rain and the post-rain swamp like atmosphere the ensued.
You can see a full account of the event with interviews of Craig Romney and Illinois State GOP Chair Andy McKenna at www.illinoisreview.com.
There are a few videos that I thought were special enough to show here. The first two are interviews I conducted with some Ron Paul supporters in from Chicago. (That’s Shi- Ka- go- for those who don’t know!)
The next video is an interview with Fred Thompson’s state chair, Bill Brady. He is a genuinely nice guy who was happy to do the interview. There are two things though, that I found ironic about this interview- let’s see if you can catch ‘em!
I just got back from the Illinois Straw Poll, here are the results:
1. Mitt Romney — 40.35%
2. Fred Thompson — 19.96%
3. Ron Paul — 18.87%
4. Rudy Giuliani — 11.61%
5. John McCain — 4.12%
6. Mike Huckabee — 3.04%
7. Sam Brownback — 1.08%
8. Duncan Hunter — .65%
9. Tom Tancredo — .33%
I have no idea of the number of votes cast although I would guess the total number of people at the picnic was 3-400. It was pouring rain, so I am sure this could account partially for the low attendance. It was at the Illinois State Fair, and the fairgrounds were empty. To his credit, Craig Romney stood out in the pouring rain and welcomed visitors and voters to the picnic, and I have a good interview of that.
While there I had the chance to meet Race42008 commenter “Bjalder” and family. I will have some videos up of the event tomorrow over at www.illinoisreview.com. I will post a couple interviews here that I did of Ron Paul supporters. It takes a while to download.
Now one point to make. I am 100% positive the Fred’s campaign tried to organize for this. It didn’t work. And McCain had a terrible showing, of course, not as bad as Tancredo, but still pretty bad.
Andy Mckenna, State GOP Chair had this to say:
“Congratulations to Mitt Romney, whose strong showing today indicates he has begun to put together a strong statewide organization. There’s no question that Illinois’ demographics closely match those of the United States and this could be an indication as to whom Illinois voters are leaning toward this coming February.”
After a good 48 hours of some solid rest and sleeping, I am ready to get back into the blogosphere and offer my thoughts on the straw poll.
The Ames straw poll is an absolutely incredible experience that anyone who loves politics must attend at least once in their lifetime. What makes it so great is because of the people involved — Iowans. They are really first-rate people who take great pride and responsibility in being first in the nation. I’ve worked Virginia and Ohio races before, and its not rare to get cursed out every other call you make because the people are so sick of being called. The same can’t be said for Iowans — often times you’ll actually be thanked for calling them — even if its the 20th call they got that day. They truly take pride in being first in the nation, and it should stay that way.
The Brownback crew is thrilled with our top 3 finish at the straw poll. The Senator was on fire at the straw poll — I have seen him give alot of speeches but he definitely gave his best at Ames. He does best in front of big crowds, and we definitely had an enormous crowd in our tent to the point where it was standing room only. Our multimedia staffer took extensive video and I’ll surely post it up as soon as its ready. The Senator also had the biggest and most enthusiastic crowd at his speech at Hilton Coliseum. We also had hundreds of volunteers from across the nation helping us out and working the logistics. It was an impressive, seamless operation.
What is also great about our finish is that we did not have to spend anywhere near the resources that other candidates poured into the straw poll, namely Mitt Romney and Tom Tancredo. We were outspent at an unfathomable rate by Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo was running TV and Radio ads, and was mailing several expensive direct mail pieces, plus was running on a hot-button issue. The Brownback campaign ran no ads. Secondly, we did not have to rely on the resources of an outside group — such as Huckabee did with the Fair Tax. Our supporters came to support Senator Brownback and his message and his views, and we know who they are because we signed them up and brought them in, and they will continue supporting us through the caucuses.
What the straw poll also shows is that Senator Brownback can connect with both heavily involved political activists and your average voter. Flash back to early March, the Senator placed in the top 3 at CPAC, and placed first there amongst social conservatives. As many of you know, CPAC is composed of the hardest working and most influential conservative activists from across the country. Top 3 wins in the two most important straw polls is very impressive, and shows that Senator Brownback’s message of uniting social and fiscal conservatives resonates with everybody.
Finally, I would just like to stress that our party is based on principles, not personalities. Senator Brownback is often criticized because he isn’t flashy or a smooth talker. But what voters ultimately look at is who shares their values and who is most closely aligned with them on the issues. The more voters learn about Senator Brownback, the more they like him. Brownback is also the only candidate that can unite the two most important wings of the Republican Party — social and fiscal conservatives. We need both wings to win, and no other candidate has the consistent, principled record to unite both.
Overall, the Straw Poll was an awesome experience and was a big win for Senator Brownback, and our campaign is going to continue moving forward, and you’ll see the campaign and the Senator more actively campaigning in South Carolina and New Hampshire. I have also decided to take some time off school to continue on with the campaign, and as always, will continue bringing updates to R42008!
To see some great pics about liveblogging from the straw poll (thanks to Leon Wolf) visit the Daily Brownbacker.
Note to Andrew Sullivan — are you really calling words out of Mother Theresa’s mouth vulgar? If so, thats a pretty sick thing to do. I think she contributed a little more to society then I would think most of us have…
Media Calls Ames for Huckabee; Disses Romney
The advantage of experiencing a flight mix-up on the way home from Ames, aside from being put up in a posh hotel by a major airline which will not be named, is that I had plenty of time to absorb the MSM narrative on the results of Ames. In an interesting turn of events, the MSM seems to be focusing almost entirely on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s come-from-behind second place showing, with Romney’s first-place finish being virtually ignored. It was Huckabee, not Romney, who was interviewed on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” this morning. And it was the Huckster, not the Mittster, who was the subject of the last few seconds of Tucker Carlson’s news analysis program on the same station that ended just moments ago. Need I inform you of the identity of the Ames candidate who appeared on “Hardball with Chris Matthews” tonight? I didn’t think so.
So how does one explain the MSM’s fascination with the former Arkansas governor? Is this some grand conspiracy to create a Romney black-out? Is conspiracy afoot? Here are the plausible theories that I’ve come up with, in no particular order:
1) Romney was expected to win Ames ever since the other major GOP candidates decided not to show. That meant that the story of Mitt’s victory became a non-story in the psyche of the MSM and the chattering classes, all of which became bored with the concept of a Romney victory months ago. Huckabee’s showing, on the other hand, was a major surprise to the punditry, which is why the Huckster is getting all of the press in the aftermath of Ames.
2) The MSM likes Gov. Huckabee because, as the governor himself admitted today on MSNBC, he is a different kind of Republican. The MSM likes Huckabee’s moderate-to-liberal views on fiscal and some domestic issues and is seizing this opportunity to promote him to the nation.
3) The MSM assumes that Huckabee, with his status as a former minister and a solid social conservative, is unelectable in 2008, and sees his Ames showing as an opportunity to promote a Republican who will be easily bested by Hillary Clinton.
4) The punditry feels that the relative performances of Romney, Huckabee, and Brownback makes Huckabee the true winner of Ames once the amount of money spent by each of the candidates to get their respective supporters to the polls is taken into account. I can attest to the general sentiment on the ground that Romney and Brownback were uber-organized, complete with scores of buses carrying loyal supporters, tasty barbecue, and games and activities for supporters. Huckabee had none of this. He spent less than $90,000 on Ames, and provided onlookers with watermelon and live music, courtesy of the governor himself.
So how did Huckabee manage to convince so many Iowans to self-motivate? The best theory I’ve heard at this point is that the governor utilized his status as an evangelical religious leader to connect with a network of likeminded sectarian institutions throughout the state, convincing the flock, so to speak, to make their way to Ames without the help of large, painted buses. In short, it was the Rove ‘04 grassroots strategy all over again. I doubt such a strategy will be useful in a general election in this environment, as it would require the GOP nominee to emphasize positions and issues that would paint him as out of touch with the priorities of the “it” voter of ‘08: disaffected independents. Still, this is politics, and Huckabee’s second-place victory is the mark of a good politician; he beat the big boys at their own game. Good for him.
Gov. Mike Huckabee claims victory in Ames yesterday. I agree:
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee claimed a victory with a second place finish in Saturday’s Republican Party of Iowa Straw Poll, saying he has momentum heading into the next phase of the campaign.
Despite a clear financial disadvantage, Huckabee said he came in with a strong second place on account of several factors, including his experience as an executive leader, the strength of his message and his vision for the future.
“This caps off a great week here in Iowa. My goal in Iowa was to introduce myself to voters in the Hawkeye State and create enough momentum to send our campaign to New Hampshire and South Carolina. We’ve met, and exceeded, that goal with resources both in terms of money and staff,” Huckabee said. “Tonight’s results prove that our message of results-driven optimism resonates with real people; that our organization can put together a successful effort; and that Iowa is winnable for us. We over-performed by having more votes and tickets purchased and having no paid media, unlike other candidates.”
Huckabee said he is especially proud of his strong showing because he spent far less money than the rest of the Republican field.
“We had a minimum amount of resources and made a maximum amount of gain,” Huckabee said.
Huckabee added his gratitude to the men and women of Iowa for their participation in the straw poll, while looking forward to a return visit to the Hawkeye state.
“I have to tip my hat to the dedicated caucus-goers who put up with this heated frenzy and came out to vote,” Huckabee said. “I am deeply grateful to all the families who invited me into their homes, met me in coffee shops and diners, shared their stories, and listened to my ideas on improving America.
“I am looking forward to returning to Iowa to work even harder to lift our campaign to victory by showing Americans there is a higher ground to be reached by bringing hope back to America with fairer taxes, a working health care system, energy self-reliance, and reinvestment in America’s future,” he added.
It remains to be seen whether Gov. Huckabee can use his 2nd place finish as a springboard to improve his standing in national polls and increase his financial support. This is a great start though. It is beyond argument that Huckabee needed this finish in order for any of that to come to fruition.
The real story from yesterday was the story on the ground where 10,000 less people voted than in 1999, and total attendance was estimated at about 30,000 (down from approx 38,000 in 1999). There appeared to be far less people than that to me though. To be honest, I have attended county fairs that seemed to have more people in attendance than Ames had yesterday. Does it seem possible that 10,000 less people could have voted, but attendance was only down by 8,000?
Here are the results:
Despite absolutely lousy organization, Huckabee surprises with a strong second place showing. Say goodbye to Tommy Thompson. Also interesting: the bottom five were all under 2%.
[UPDATE: We, collectively as R4'08, were a little off on our prediction. We got the first three places correct, but thought Rudy would come in much stronger at 8.25% and 4th place. After that it kind of fell apart.
The winner of the prediction contest was difficult to pick. Nobody chose the 11 in the correct order, but the person that came the closest (according to my editorial judgment!) is... Matt (not me, the other Matt). Matt correctly picked the top 6 finishers in the right order - an impressive feat to be sure - and with pretty accurate percentages as to boot. Congratulations, Matt!]
Just hours before the official results are in, here is the average of all 26 guesses from here at Race42008. Let’s see how close we were collectively:
I’ll announce the “winner” of the guessing contest sometime tonight or tomorrow morning in a frontpage post!
