This press release is as close to an official endorsement as you can get:

Club for Growth PAC Statement on Eric Cantor

Washington – Recent reports that GOP presidential nominee John McCain is vetting Congressman Eric Cantor (VA-07) for the vice-presidential slot has prompted inquiries from the Club for Growth PAC about Rep. Cantor’s record on economic issues.

In short, Rep. Cantor’s record in the House, beginning in 2001, has been consistently strong in several economic policy areas, including free trade, school choice, tort reform, drilling in ANWR, and tax cuts. In the key area of government spending, Cantor’s record started out less strong, but has shown marked improvement in recent years, to the point where Cantor now ranks among the most pro-growth members in the House.

The Republicans’ resounding defeat at the polls in 2006 was a watershed event for the GOP Caucus in the House. Some GOP pork spending leaders, such as Rep. Don Young (R-AK), learned nothing from voters’ rejection of the GOP’s profligate ways and continued on their merry earmarking way. Others in the GOP took to heart the need to return the party to its limited government moorings. Rep. Eric Cantor is clearly in the latter group.

Over the past two years, Rep. Cantor has been one of the few Republicans to come to grips with the sorry state of the GOP and lead by example. If Senator McCain wants to win in November, he will need to choose someone who recognizes how badly Republicans have strayed from the principles of limited government and economic freedom. Eric Cantor gets it.

Rep. Cantor is one of only 41 House members to swear off earmarks this year. Just last week, he joined 62 of his House colleagues in supporting an amendment offered by Rep. Flake to strip 103 earmarks from the Military Construction-VA Appropriations Bill (RC #560, 08/01/08).

In 2007, Rep. Cantor rose to the top of the Republican Caucus, scoring a 95% on the Club for Growth’s Congressional Scorecard and ranking 21st overall in the entire House. Over the past two years, Cantor has taken a number of courageous votes in favor of cutting government spending:

• Cantor was 1 of 91 Republicans to vote against the farm bill and voted to sustain the President’s veto of the bill (RC #315, 05/14/08) (RC #346, 05/21/08)
• Cantor was 1 of 54 Republicans to sustain the President’s veto of the Water Resources Development Act (RC #1040, 11/06/07)
• Cantor was 1 of 41 Republicans to sustain the President’s veto of a bill to increase Medicare payments (RC #491, 07/15/08)
• Cantor voted against the Democratic housing bill, imposing new costs and new regulations on American taxpayers and businesses (RC #519, 07/23/08)

“McCain’s vice-presidential pick will be crucial for his campaign and for the future of the GOP,” said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. “Choosing someone like Mike Huckabee would indicate an abandonment of limited-government, free-market principles. However, picking someone like Eric Cantor, who has tried to help the Republican Party reclaim the mantel of fiscal conservatism, could make the difference between victory and defeat. For economic conservatives, Eric Cantor would be a good choice.”

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE’S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.

The Wall Street Journal notes that the anticipated Obama VP announcement will probably not happen this week or even next…

Barack Obama and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh appeared at a campaign rally together Wednesday, stoking conjecture that the Hoosier senator may be asked to join the ticket as Obama’s running mate.

But with speculation nearing a fever pitch over who he will pick to round out the Democratic presidential ticket, campaign officials soaked the ground with cold water, at least regarding timing.

Obama won’t be tipping his hand for running mate this week, one campaign official said, and he won’t do it next week either, at least not while he’s vacationing with his family in Hawaii. That vacation ends Aug. 16, giving Obama about a week and a half to make a decision in advance of the Democratic convention.

There has been speculation for some time that this would be the week Obama would make his decision, on the theory that he wouldn’t want to risk being upstaged by the Olympic Games in Beijing. Among the lead proponents of this theory: employees of NBC, which is televising the games.

The soothing words from the campaign that a decision isn’t imminent didn’t placate edgy reporters, some of whom camped out late Tuesday in the lobby of the Elkhart motel where Obama was staying, on the off-chance that Bayh might show up in a black limousine.

Further stoking speculation that Bayh is the one: the film crew that routinely shoots video for Obama campaign ads were spotted at the Elkhart event.

So much for the pre-Olympic announcements.

William Kristol offers his insight on the internal divisions among McCain aides regarding the VP selection. Here is a particularly intriguing piece:

In his convention speech, McCain could say something like this:

“I will give you a reform administration that will put politics aside to work for all Americans. I pledge to turn the page on 16 years of often petty and mean-spirited partisanship so we can tackle the big challenges we face. So I pledge that neither I nor my vice president will seek re-election. Neither I nor my vice president will spend a day, an hour, a minute campaigning or raising money — not for ourselves nor for anyone else. There will be no political office in my White House — there will be no place for a Dick Morris, or (with all due respect) a Karl Rove.”

This opens up several unconventional V.P. possibilities. They include some who would reinforce the notion of a war presidency above politics, like Senator Joe Lieberman and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Or perhaps someone with economic or domestic policy expertise — like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, old McCain friend and FedEx C.E.O. Fred Smith or new McCain insider and former EBay C.E.O. Meg Whitman.

Most of the campaign staff strongly prefers a selection from the first two categories — do no harm or reinforce experience. McCain himself, on the other hand, is intrigued by the bolder possibilities of youth or bipartisanship.

Risky and unconventional, sure, but stranger things have come to pass. I must say that this kind of message could resonate with many voters, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike.

Read the entire article here

Huff Puff ‘n Stuff is now peddling the rumor that Obama will select Evan Bayh to be his running mate this week, says Patterico’s Pontifications:

HuffPo contributor Bil Browning (who has his own blog site “The Bilerico Project” — a little “rico” evny?) has a piece up at HuffPo making a pretty good circumstantial case that Obama will name Bayh as his running mate on Wednesday morning, in advance of the start of the Olympics.

Among his comments are that Obama has a stop planned in Elkardt, Indiana tomorrow afternoon for a campaign event, where he’ll be joined by Bayh. But the press is being told to plan on staying around until Wed afternoon/early evening even though there is nothing on Obama’s announced calendar in Indiana for later in the day on Wednesday.

Browning also says that he was just invited by an Obama campaign staffer to attend an event on Wednesday that isn’t even on the calendar, and about which the staffer could provide no information other than to say Browning would want to be there to cover it on his blog.

A leak late in the day on Tueday after Obama and and Bayh attend a rally together would be a nice set-up for a Wednesday morning announcement, which would then dominate all the press coverage through the day on Wednesday, and into Thurs.

So now we know that Bayh will be joining Obama on the trail in Indiana this week, and that Obama’s schedule remains eerily empty. Like I said yesterday, there’s no good reason for Barack Obama to be in Northern Indiana with Evan Bayh absent a Bayh selection and announcement.

Well, here we are. As we welcome this new month of August, we must look back in awe of the events that have transpired over the last year. This time a year ago, we were abuzz over a Clinton-Giuliani battle for the White House. Obviously, those plans fell apart. Yet, who would have predicted that the race would narrow to these two sitting Senators, one the first African-American to lead a major ticket and the other a man left for dead only months ago?

For all the notable firsts and historical records that go along with this contest- the first time both major candidates were born outside the continental United States, and the current age disparity between the two major candidates marks the largest in history- there remain plenty of worthwhile links to previous elections. As many have demonstrated in the past, the national mood and political environment of 2008 bears similarities to 1976. In that election year, a center-right Republican in Gerald Ford squared off against a new and relatively inexperienced face in Jimmy Carter. The electorate, as they are today, was weary of the future and sought a new course. Energy prices were skyrocketing, tensions simmered in the Middle East, and the economy struggled to gain any traction.

Despite these striking comparisons, the McCain campaign must recognize one major difference: the polls. Gerald Ford trailed his challenger by substantial margins throughout the summer and fall of 1976 and, while Ford fought back, only to lose by two percentage points in the popular vote, his entire campaign was doomed by the general sentiment that he had no chance. Conversely, John McCain lurks within single digits of the anointed President Obama. In fact, the most recent tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen place McCain and Obama deadlocked in the mid-40’s. Although he has not led in the RealClearPolitics polling average since April 14, McCain has proved his staying power. Taking into account Obama’s advantages in fundraising, organization, media attention, and party identification, it is truly amazing that he does not hold a comfortable lead. It now looks as though the time has past for Obama to land an early knockout punch.

In light of these developments, I would urge Senator McCain to take three distinct measures to bolster his campaign and capture a piece of the narrative:

• Choose a dynamic and game-changing VP
• Target Congress as Public Enemy #1
• Continue to focus on Obama’s character, for it is a gateway in understanding his shifts on key issues and lack of true governing principles

THE VP

It was not long ago when some believed that McCain’s best bet for VP would be a safe pick that would represent a clearing-out of the old guard to make way for the future. This logic rested upon the notion that McCain would fade as the summer months progressed and the campaign turned towards the conventions. This has simply not happened. For all the disappointment voiced (mostly warranted) by Republican activists over McCain’s sluggish message, this election is still very much up for grabs.

Let’s explore the handful or so of candidates that would be considered “game-changing” for John McCain. When evaluating each prospective running-mate, I have taken into consideration one’s ability to garner new votes, shape the narrative or alter public perceptions, and act as a sufficient attack-dog:

Rudy Giuliani

Strength (Attack-Dog)- Provides McCain an able and ready surrogate to clearly and thoroughly land hits on Obama. Rudy could be the catalyst in McCain’s continuing search for a solid campaign message.

Doubts, but not completely negative (Garnering New Votes)- As in years past, New Jersey is fool’s gold for Republicans. Rudy’s selection may bolster McCain in the state, but it remains unclear if he can actually flip it to the GOP column. In addition, though I am confident that Hizzoner brings in moderates and independents in the Philadelphia suburbs and northeastern Pennsylvania, I am not sure if McCain can counter Obama’s strongholds in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. As for Florida, I am skeptical that Rudy would add significant numbers of voters that are not already supporting the ideologically similar McCain.

Joe Lieberman

Strength (Narrative/Perception)- Whatever you may think of McCain’s “maverick” reputation or his history of bucking the party line, Lieberman’s selection would signal the campaign’s willingness to chart an unprecedented course for governance. Forget about Lieberman’s social and domestic liberalism; McCain’s motives for choosing his fellow Senator would be to grab public attention and demonstrate that he is truly able to reach across the aisle. Lieberman is a known commodity and remains popular among Independents, therefore, allowing the McCain camp to squash any public notion that Obama is the agent of change and post-partisanship. Moreover, Joe would serve as a valuable attack-dog and plausible Commander-In-Chief.

Doubts and Weaknesses (Will the Right revolt?)- Lieberman’s selection would raise the following questions…

• Does Lieberman’s liberalism on social and domestic issues represent a bridge too far for some conservatives? (Something tells me McCain would hang on to the Deep South despite the convention chaos that may ensue).
• Will Republican activists understand that a Lieberman selection would stand as a unique necessity, one that could keep Obama from power without damaging the party platform in the future? (Stay tuned…)

Sarah Palin

As a disclaimer, I have already voiced my support for a McCain-Palin ticket.

Strength (Narrative/Perception)- In short, I believe that Palin’s biography and charisma would sit well with many middle and working-class voters that remain undecided. Public perceptions of McCain could instantly shift if he selected a youthful female leader who has stood for integrity and accountability during her term as governor. Since many Hillary supporters have not fallen in behind Obama, a Palin selection could push them to give McCain a second look. Furthermore, Palin seems to be the pick that both conservatives and moderates agree upon.

Strength (Attack-Dog/Campaign Issue)- Sarah Palin’s knowledge, eloquence, and hands-on experience with energy issues could prove decisive during the fall campaign. Gas prices and energy security will continue to dominate the campaign trail and McCain would be wise to choose a running-mate that could highlight the Democrats opposition to domestic drilling.

Doubts- Does Palin pass the Commander-In-Chief test? Will her relatively low name recognition hurt McCain’s fundraising?

Colin Powell

Powell could be the ultimate game-changer, but he is also the biggest mystery…

Strength (Narrative/Public Perception)- Quite simply, Colin Powell remains, to this very day, the most respected and admired man in America. I believe that the majority of voters would see Powell’s acceptance to a McCain ticket as a way to rescue his legacy from the embarrassing episode at the U.N. Something tells me that they may just give him the chance.

Doubts (Everything)- Would he even consider joining McCain? Will he endorse Obama? What are his real feelings on social and domestic issues?

Mitt Romney

Here we go again…

Strength (Electorally in specific states)- McCain must be flirting with the idea of stomaching Romney if it means that he adds key votes in Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire. McCain does want to win, of course. Romney has been vetted, adds potential as a prolific fundraiser and organizer, and could bring along credibility on the economy.

Doubts (A lot)- While bringing in votes in some states, will Romney’s selection repel working class voters in places such as Ohio and Pennsylvania? Will the narrative sour and public perception simply cement once McCain picks another white guy with CEO sensibilities and weatherman-type looks? Who says Romney can actually deliver Michigan?

While this list is not exhaustive, I cannot, in good conscious, label Tim Pawlenty, Rob Portman, or Tom Ridge as game-changers. Eric Cantor is intriguing for his appeal among the Jewish, working-class, and suburban voters, yet I am not sold at the moment.

FOCUS ON CONGRESS

Mired in a rut where it seems that he only responds to Obama’s moves, John McCain must focus in on a vulnerable target: Congress. With their approval ratings in single digits and House Republicans staging summer recess protests over domestic drilling, Capitol Hill offers McCain the perfect avenue to channel public angst and frustration.

Go ahead, camp out with your colleagues on the front steps of the Capitol, demanding that Nancy and Harry return from vacation to carry out the will of the people and allow a vote on offshore drilling. More importantly, McCain could point to the possibility of complete Democratic control and warn the electorate that he is the only thing standing in the way of an Obama-Pelosi-Reid three-headed monster. McCain should spend weeks reminding the public that Congress has said no to domestic drilling and nuclear power, while refusing to acknowledge the success of the surge and our achievements in Iraq. Why would they want more of the same from Obama?

CHARACTER REVEALS PRIORITIES

Finally, John McCain should continue to focus on Barack Obama’s questionable character and his unusually elevated view of himself. While some may see this as negative-based campaigning, the truth of the matter is that revealing Obama’s character allows us to see his rationale on key campaign issues. Barack Obama is one of the more inexperienced candidates in presidential history. Though he was elected to the U.S. Senate, he has spent the majority of his first term running for president. Is he truly the candidate of “hope” and “change,” when he has not even dedicated himself to the people of Illinois? From his presidential-like seal to his “the odds of us winning are very good” declaration, Obama has displayed a level of hubris and self-love rarely seen before.

In the end, what is the only guiding principle or ideal that Obama has devoted himself to relentlessly? Being elected. How else can you explain the shameless shifts on public financing, Iraq, the D.C. gun ban, NAFTA, the FISA bill, town-hall meetings, or talks with Iran? The list goes on. I am optimistic that the American people will come to grasp these realities and understand that, despite his flaws, John McCain is the man to be trusted in these difficult times. He knows first-hand that it is sometimes necessary to forfeit your personal ambitions for the greater good of your own country.

Stop the presses, as they say.

On the Veepwatch front, nothing’s on Obama’s schedule yet, but the traveling press registration e-mail has us flying to South Bend at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and not leaving until 3:25 p.m. the next day.

It seems seems like an awfully long time to be in one place. (Where exactly is Evan Bayh?)

Bayh’s home town is near Terre Haute, Ind. — about four-hour drive from South Bend. But South Bend is a nice geographical point between Illinois and Ohio, and just south of the Michigan line.

Obama communications stretegist Robert Gibbs says all that should be taken from it is that “Indiana is competitive and winnable for us,” he said.

To the untrained eye this may appear to be just a routine campaign stop, but to someone who grew up just a few miles from the Indiana/Michigan border, and who knows the region’s politics, this is almost enough to convince me to learn how Intrade works so that I can make some easy money.

First of all, there is no good reason for Obama to spend almost 24 precious hours in South Bend, Indiana absent a Bayh selection and announcement. Ultimately, Obama is not going to win Indiana with or without Bayh, and if he does, it will be the icing on the 300-plus electoral vote cake. Obama would be eons better served spending those hours across the border in Michigan, or across the other border in Ohio, and he knows that.

On the other hand, South Bend would be the ideal location to unveil an Obama/Bayh presidential ticket. As an area that is both disproportionately populous and Democratic compared to Indiana as a whole, AND as a community that borders purple Michigan to boot, it would make very little sense to announce a Bayh selection anywhere else. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Obama receive a highly noticeable post-announcement bump in Michigan; Bayh’s godlike status is well known to residents of southern Michigan who reside in the media markets of the hybrid region known as “Michiana,” a region that will assuredly initiate a goopy Obama/Bayh lovefest for the next several news cycles should Bayh be selected.

Combine all of that with the fact that Obama pretty much has to pick a veep either now or after the Olympics and it becomes clear that Obama is probably going to have a running mate within 72 hours, and that running mate will probably be Evan Bayh. This is an incredibly savvy pick. Bayh will up Obama’s numbers in Michigan and Ohio (see our own Matthew Miller’s work on the adjacent-state impact of vice presidential selections) and will make it that much more important for McCain to select a running mate who can put an actual state in play. That means Ridge (PA, OH), Rudy (PA, NJ), Pawlenty (MN, IA, WI), or perhaps Crist (FL) or Cantor (VA).

The AP and Politico are reporting:

The McCain campaign is vetting Rep. Eric I. Cantor (R-Va.) as a potential vice-presidential candidate, a campaign adviser told Politico on Saturday.

Cantor, 45, has provided records to the running-mate search team of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the adviser said.

With a Southern lilt that belies his talent for raw politics, Cantor is one of the nation’s most prominent Jewish Republicans, and has impressed the McCain team by becoming one of the campaign’s most prolific fund-raisers.

A young fiscal conservative who could help keep Virginia from tipping blue, Cantor could also be an asset in such battlegrounds as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. He has shown appeal to the party’s base as well as to independents, and would be an unconventional choice at a time when McCain is looking to add excitement to his campaign.

“McCain needs to do something different,” said Chris LaCivita, a top Virginia Republican strategist. Citing his youth, ties to the business community, strong relationship with conservative activists and proven ability to raise money, LaCivita said Cantor “fits all the bills”

The commonwealth, which has been reliably Republican in presidential races, has become more Democratic, making it a top target for Obama and a huge concern for McCain.

Cantor, who lives in suburban Richmond, would bring to the ticket a photogenic family and a track record of raising prodigious amounts of money from his own national network. On weekends, he travels constantly on behalf of Republican House candidates and the national party

Known on Capitol Hill as squeaky clean, Cantor has successfully campaigned and raised money in key states like Missouri, New Jersey and New York.

Mark Warner, the former Virginia governor and now Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia, said that Cantor was his toughest potential opponent. Cantor decided to stay in the House to continue rising the leadership ladder.

Dr. Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission and one of the nation’s most influential evangelical leaders, recently praised Cantor as a potential McCain running mate, calling him rock-solid on social issues—a huge concern for Christian conservatives with the maverick McCain at the top of the ticket.

Cantor is a member of the House Republican leadership, chief deputy majority whip, and a member of one of the most coveted committees.

Cantor has been a visible McCain surrogate for weeks, appearing frequently on cable news outlets chiefly to promote McCain’s positions on domestic and economic issues. He has been a forceful critic of Democrat Barack Obama’s resistance to lifting the federal ban on oil and gas drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

Cantor has strong support among the party’s conservatives, perhaps comforting a segment of the GOP base that has been reluctant to embrace McCain, who has often been at odds with members of his own party on several issues, including a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, federal funds for embryonic stem cell research and campaign finance reform.

Since his four terms in the Virginia House of Delegates starting in the early 1990s, Cantor has been part of the anti-tax wing of Virginia’s Republican Party. His longtime advocacy for business and corporate interests in the General Assembly earned Cantor the derisive nickname “Overdog” from Democrats in Richmond.

Most MSM conjecture on the veepstakes is tedious regurgitated chum.  But occassionally a journalist actually managers to offer a bit of insight that comes close to rivaling the brilliant insights that are commonplace at Race42008.

One such tidbit was Esme Murphy’s blog at WCCO, the Minneapolis CBS affiliate. My thoughts have long mirrored Murphy’s who posits that the biggest factor commending a Pawlenty vice presidential candidacy is a word in scarce supply in today’s politics:  loyalty.

On the afternoon of Nov. 1, 2006, I left downtown Minneapolis to drive to Duluth for a story. I returned that night. For five hours in the car, the radio buzzed with the stations I could pick up. And along the way as signals faded in and out, the top story was John McCain’s visit to campaign for Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The election was six days away. The latest poll released by the University of Minnesota showed Mike Hatch leading Tim Pawlenty 45-39.

It was a background hum, these Pawlenty/McCain stories on the radio. But I remember being struck that McCain visited Rochester, Mankato, Blaine, Duluth and Moorhead in one day. The story did not get huge play on WCCO-TV, the Star Tribune or the Pioneer Press. But on the local radio stations, I recall at least three different ones, it was the lead story. And in each I remember the soundbite was like the one from the Blaine stop: McCain saying of Pawlenty, “I know of no one who will make a greater contribution to the future of America than this great leader. … America needs leaders, these are very dangerous times this is the type of leader I would like to pass the torch to.” On the brink of what looked like a loss, Tim Pawlenty had a national figure like John McCain trudging to even the smallest of media markets calling him a leader for the nation’s future.

I am convinced that John McCain wants to name Tim Pawlenty as his running mate.  The two seem to have a genuine affection and fealty for one another.  They balance and compliment one another.  And as much as I loathe the GOP’s eagerness to embrace the folly of Man-Made Global Warming, McCain seems determined to put his stamp on the party by doing just that.  Like McCain, Pawlenty has embraced the fatuous theory as dogma. 

But while McCain wants to choose Pawlenty, the question remains can he afford to do so?  I believe the deflating of the Obama mini-bounce and corresponding modest rise in McCain’s numbers over the last several days work in Pawlenty’s favor.  At root, Pawlenty is the safe choice as he is solid on the life issue, satisfactory but not spectacular on taxes, good on guns and borders and — despite the MMGW nonsense — would likely be popular with evangelicals.  He speaks their language in a way that is less abrasive but just as clear as GWB because like the current president, Pawlenty is a genuine man of faith. 

Should Obama manage to grow his nearly non-existent lead over the next few weeks, should his opponent pick a running mate that needs a specific parry, or if unforseen events somehow conspire against the Arizona Senator, he may need to choose a less conventional pick or someone who may be able to lay claim, however tenuous, to a geographical advantage.

I am inclined to believe that the polls will remain tight throughout the dog days of summer in these weeks prior to the conventions.  Because of this, Senator McCain will feel confident enough to go with his gut — and a man who has been supremely loyal to him and for whom he has genuine affection — Tim Pawlenty. 

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 30.0
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Sarah Palin 19.9
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 30.0
• Evan Bayh 25.0
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 14.9
• Dick Gephardt 10.0

Obama has dropped below 60 for the first time in nearly two months. McCain’s contract has been skyrocketing for the past 24 hours and looks poised to top 40 by tomorrow.

After a temporary dip into the high 20’s late last evening, Mitt is back on top. Charlie Crist has also climbed back into fifth place.

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 38.5
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Sarah Palin 19.9
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 35.3
• Evan Bayh 24.5
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 14.9
• Dick Gephardt 10.0

This rumor is courtesy of ABC News’ Jan Crawford Greenburg:

McCain’s tough new “celebrity” ad campaign, designed to portray Obama as an empty suit who — like Paris Hilton — is devoid of substance, is the first part of a broader strategy that ultimately could have ramifications for McCain’s VP selection.

The campaign will continue to hit hard that Obama is not an agent of change — but a man who merely plays to his audience and is unwilling to risk losing his adoring crowds by making the tough decisions. This is only the first volley, sources close to McCain tell ABC News.

There’s a bigger point — and this initial volley, they say, lays the groundwork for it. They will be sharpening McCain’s message that he, not Obama, is the true change agent, a man who’s repeatedly taken unpopular stands, made the hard calls and forged bipartisan alliances.

Part of the calculus now is how his VP choice will further sharpen that message. There is significant support among top McCain advisers that he make a “transformative” pick who would change the Republican Party — someone who would appeal to moderate Republicans and Democrats.

This pick would be someone who, like McCain, has taken the unpopular stands, made the hard calls and stood firm on principle.

A person who fills that bill, these advisers say, is Joe Lieberman.

Lieberman, an Independent Democrat, flatly denied his interest to ABC’s Ron Claiborne earlier this month, but McCain is now seriously considering him as that “transformative” pick, sources tell ABC News.

McCain is close to Lieberman, admires his willingness to stand alone on principle and shares his views that Islamo-fascism is the most serious threat to the nation’s future.

What’s more, some McCain advisers believe Lieberman would dramatically enhance the point they are now trying to make about Obama in this “celebrity” ad campaign.

McCain and Lieberman are anti-celebrities, the argument goes. They have, as one top adviser said, felt the heat after taking unpopular positions because they were willing to do “what’s right for the country” — whatever it meant for their own popularity.

McCain has not decided which route to take. The transformative pick would anger a slice of the base, and he could decide, at the end of the day, to pick the conventional conservative.

That would be Mitt Romney, Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty or former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman, sources tell ABC News.

Despite my many differences with Sen. Lieberman on the issues (and there are many), he will always have my respect and admiration for risking everything that he spent his life attaining by refusing to give in to the demands of the nutroots and join the chorus of surrender to al-Qaeda on Iraq.

That reason alone is enough for me personally to support the ticket. I would urge anyone who cares about our soldier’s sacrifice of the past 5 years do the same.

Finally, here is tonight’s Intrade Veep update:

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 38.5
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Tom Ridge 25.0
• Sarah Palin 19.9
• John Thune 10.0 (tie)
• Rob Portman 10.0 (tie)

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 38.9
• Evan Bayh 24.5
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 13.9
• Dick Gephardt 8.5

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 38.5
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Sarah Palin 13.1
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 40.0
• Evan Bayh 20.0
• Kathleen Sebelius 20.0
• Joe Biden 12.2
• Dick Gephardt 8.5

BTW… The Obama to in November contract has dropped about 5 points in the past 18 hours and is in danger of falling below 60.0 for the first time since May.

Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

• Mitt Romney 30.0
• Tim Pawlenty 30.0
• Tom Ridge 15.0
• Sarah Palin 13.1
• Charlie Crist 13.0

Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination

• Tim Kaine 36.6
• Evan Bayh 25.1
• Kathleen Sebelius 15.0
• Joe Biden 12.4
• Dick Gephardt 8.5

I tended to agree with the conventional wisdom,”Kaine’s a terrible pick” last night.  But, I’ve had a night to mull the issue and here’s the thing; Barack Obama is not going to win the Commander in Chief vote, even if he picks Admiral Fallon himself.  There was a poll the other day that had McCain up something like 72-25 on the “who’s the best commander in chief” question.  He lost on this question by a smaller, albeit hefty, margin in the primaries as well.  But, curiously, it doesn’t seem to matter to a majority of voters.  They admit that McCain would make a better commander in chief, but prefer Obama nonetheless.  I suspect, if Kaine is the guy, that the Obama camp believes that they can win, even while losing the commander in chief question, as long as voters feel that Obama wouldn’t be a complete disaster in this regard.  His relative success abroad last week probably went a ways to reassuring them about Obama’s ability to seem mostly serious.

Under this assumption, Kaine begins to make alot more sense.  He’s a youngish, Catholic Governor with a business background and roots in three swing states (Missouri, Minnesota, and obviously Virginia).  If Obama can afford Kaine, he might be a pretty good buy.  And based on past history, Obama no doubt thinks he can afford another neophyte.  It’s a strange and dangerous calculation, but I’m not sure it’s wrong.  With Iraq calming down, foreign policy has already receded in importance; taking a back stage to the economy and energy.  And historically, in situations where foreign policy has receded in immediate importance, this sort of calculation has proven to be reasonable.  After all, it seems quite likely that Bush was seen as the better commander in chief, in 92′, by large margins, but still faltered.  There are at least two problems with this analysis.  First, it is not 1992.  Americans are upset about our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and perhaps they sense that both conflicts are winding down, but they’re not nearly so cavalier as to think we can take another holiday from history.

9/11 changed things, and I think Obama is betting an awful lot on the proposition that as Iraq fades in importance, any concern about foreign threats fades along with it.  Secondly, it is not 1992, and there’s every chance something will happen in the next 3 months to remind voters how dangerous this world really is (a Tet Offensive of sorts, perhaps developments on the Iranian front).  If Obama gets caught with Tim Kaine, and something like this occurs, it will be an unmitigated disaster.

Just a couple more interesting tidbits to whet your rumor whistles on the Obama/Kaine front tonight, folks…

First, St. Louis Today’s political blog notes that Tim Kaine was raised in Kansas City and went to high school and graduated college in Missouri — which just happens to be the state to which Obama is traveling tomorrow… the same day of the canceled Democratic Party fundraiser Kaine was supposed to be at…

And should Kaine leave his office as Governor, say to assume the role of Vice Presidential candidate, Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R) would take over as Governor of Virginia. Redstate recently pointed out that the address timkaine.com has now been rerouted… check out where it takes you… TimKaine.com

The latest Intrade numbers have it at Kaine 31; Bayh 21; Sebelius 16; Biden 12.

Oh, please, let it be true…

UPDATE: Should have fact checked that second point… Alex points out in the comments that timkaine.com is owned by a conservative who has redirected it to Bill Bolling’s web page for several years now. Sorry.

Here’s Alex’s big bucket of cold water to throw on Race42008 for today…

Memo to everyone eating up this red herring: Barack Obama is not going to select Tim Kaine as his running mate!

1. Kaine Doesn’t Guarantee Virginia

Tim Kaine is no Mark Warner. His approval rating, as of two months ago, was 53% among whites (that’s all that matters; virtually all blacks are already with Obama) — not terrible, by any means, but no game-changer. If Obama were to take an unprecedented course and select a vice-presidential candidate solely to deliver a state, he wouldn’t risk that on someone who only has a +10% approval rating among whites. Evan Bayh would be a much smarter selection on that count — Indiana is also right within the Democrats’ reach this season, and his approval rating is much higher: the most recent poll I could find shows him with a nearly 80% approval rating. Nothing earth-shattering has happened since December 2006 that should have changed that perception.

2. Kaine Doubles Down On Obama’s Weaknesses

This is a guy with less experience in a “serious” (senator/governor) office than Barack Obama. People are already highly weary of Barack Obama’s experience level, and adding a guy with even less experience — and just as much to show for it — isn’t going to do anything for him.

3. This Is Not a Clinton/Gore Election

People have been touting Tim Kaine as a “Gore to Obama’s Clinton”, as if the election of 1992, in which the “end of history” was said to be approaching and a “peace dividend” could be reaped, is even remotely comparable to today’s situation. We’re in a war against Islamic jihad, and whether the economy is the top issue or not, it’s still there and people still realize it — and if they don’t, the McCain camp will be sure to make them if Tim Kaine is the pick!

4. What Does Kaine Do That Clark or Jones Doesn’t?

Fine. So Tim Kaine is an “outside-the-beltway” politician that hasn’t had the hope knocked out of him by the menacing, evil lobbyists yet. Whatever. But of all the people that fit this profile, why Tim Kaine, given that he doesn’t even guarantee Virginia? What does he do that Wesley Clark or James Jones doesn’t? Virginia’s voters — heavily veteran, as Kavon delights in pointing out — would surely go for a retired general as much as they would their governor. And a general is more likely to swing the right type of voter into Obama’s camp.

Obama is already trusted on the domestic front, but if he’s going to pick someone for that reason (I have no idea why he would, but let’s just assume he’d want to), then why not just select Bayh, who has more experience, a higher approval rating, and is better-liked by the Clinton wing of the party?

*

…But if I’m wrong (I’m not), Kaine would be announced after McCain’s selection. If Kaine is Obama’s current top pick (he’s not), he wouldn’t want to risk McCain choosing someone like Colin Powell or Rudy Giuliani, making an Obama/Kaine ticket look utterly laughable.

*

So, to recapitulate: it’s not Kaine. Can someone please make the case for Kaine for me, here? Because I am deathly confused.

If last minute changes in schedules are a signs of upcoming Veep announcements, and they generally are, then this oughta dump a few gallons of fuel on the Obama/Kaine possibility: Tim Kaine is no longer going to be speaking at the Maryland State Democratic Party ‘08 Unity Fundraiser tomorrow night.

PolitickerMD notes that Kaine’s staff has cited a “scheduling conflict” as the reason for dropping from the fundraiser dinner — which he had agreed to speak at nearly 3 weeks ago. Not very many things come up that quickly and force that kind of change of plans.

Could Obama desire to get his Veep pick in first, and before the Olympics begin next week? Only time will tell, but on this speculation Kaine’s contract at Intrade has jumped 14 points today.

(h/t reader and commenter Greg)

[UPDATE: According to Marc Ambinder, Obama's campaign schedule has him in Missouri for three town halls tomorrow. Perhaps the best indication of what is to come will be whether or not Obama releases an amended schedule for tomorrow...]

[UPDATE #2: The plot thickens... MSNBC's First Read points out that Barack Obama spent yesterday and today in Washington, DC (and, by implication, it would be easy to stay very close by for one more day to announce a Veep selection). While there, Obama met with Eric Holder, who is heading up his search for a running mate, at least twice, for a total of 4 1/2 hours. Interesting...]

Over at The Page, Mark Halperin drops hints that McCain’s Veep selection may not be on anyone’s list and perhaps has many the following characteristics:

1. Business background
2. Military service
3. Never run for office before
4. No connection to President Bush

Added advantages:

1. Catholic
2. Female

So who best fits all of these criteria? Post your best guess in the comments.

Hat Tip - JA Pruce

Although he urges caution, I would bet that Geraghty’s sources are more solid than he will let on:

The individual who told me yesterday that he had heard McCain’s pick is coming soon, and that it was Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, now tells me that McCain’s list is down to Pawlenty or Mitt Romney.

I urge readers to take this with the requisite caution. Neither man’s schedule has had any last-minute changes or cancellations, which to me is a leading sign of an announcement being lined up.

Interestingly, Mitt and T-Paw are tied at 30 on Intrade as of this writing.

Read the entire post here.

According to the Washington Post this morning, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is in “serious talks” with Obama with regards to being his ticket-completer. They also quote (unnamed and uncited) inside sources at the campaign who cite this as being Obama’s shortlist for Veep consideration, all of whom are being vetted by the Obama campaign:

• Gov. Tim Kaine (VA)
• Gov. Kathy Sebelius (KS)
• Sen. Evan Bayh (IN)
• Sen. Joe Biden (DE)

As of right now, the Intrade guessing looks like this:

1. Bayh - 34.9
2. Kaine - 30.0
3. Sebelius - 13.1
4. Biden - 10.1

Those four are the top four on the market.

Honestly, if this shortlist is accurate, I think we really dodged a huge bullet by avoiding Webb or Nunn on the bottom of the ticket. Bayh would be by far the toughest of the four in my estimation. Biden and Sebelius would be the easier two to beat, but Kaine wouldn’t be bad. He’s a one term Governor with zero foreign policy experience and no real significant political achievements. Sounds kind of like the top of the ticket, eh?

And then there’s always this:



Obama/Eyebrow ‘08!

From The Campaign Spot:

A source tells me that Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is John McCain’s choice, and that the announcement is coming very soon. But I checked with the American Legislative Exchange Council, who Pawlenty is scheduled to address Wednesday at 11:30. As far as they know, his speech is still on.

So I urge skepticism. Maybe Pawlenty is the choice, and it’s coming later. Or perhaps this was just an overreaction to the news that Pawlenty is going to Iowa Saturday for the state Republican party.

I’m elated if this is accurate.  Pawlenty’s the best “white guy” available to McCain, and as Sarah Palin seems to be embroiled in a temporary scandal, he’s frankly the obvious choice; and much more credible as Commander in Chief regardless.  But, I’d urge caution.  And whoever McCain chooses, I hope everyone keeps an open mind.

Take this for whatever you feel it’s worth:

Rasmussen Reports Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Favorability Survey, conducted July 25-27, 2008.

• Mike Huckabee 47%/39% - (+8)
• Joe Lieberman 46%/39% - (+7)
• Tim Pawlenty 22%/21% - (+1)
• Bobby Jindal 22%/21% - (+1)
• Mitt Romney 42%/48% - (-6%)
• Charlie Crist 23%/29% - (-6)
• Sarah Palin 11%/19% - (-8)

This national survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from each night from July 25-27, 2008. The margin of sampling error for each survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

More from the veep rumor mill:

Take this for what it’s worth–and it may not be much–but a source well-connected in Minnesota politics (and in a position to know) is pretty sure Tim Pawlenty has pulled out of one or two events scheduled there for tomorrow. Assuming that’s right, I guess it could mean any number of things: 1.) There was some random, non-veepstakes-related conflict that forced the change of schedule. 2.) McCain or his vetters intend to meet with Pawlenty tomorrow, possibly somewhere outside Minnesota. 3.) McCain intends to announce his veep pick tomorrow and has asked several short-listers to clear their schedules. 4.) McCain intends to announce Pawlenty as his running mate tomorrow.

I e-mailed a Pawlenty spokesperson about this last night and haven’t received a response.

I’d put 4.) as least likely, but it would obviously be consistent with the schedule change. Also, Marc Ambinder passed along some speculation Friday night that McCain would be announcing his veep pick tomorrow, so keep that in mind.

I think Scenario #3 is plausible. That would explain why the T-Paw and Mitt camps both seem to think that tomorrow is the day that their guy gets to join McCain on the ticket. Perhaps McCain narrowed the short list down to a few finalists and then told everyone to be ready for his final decision.

Ultimately though, I just can’t ignore the fact that all of the bigwigs who actually talk to McCain, and not some anonymous mid-level campaign staffers in Peoria, come back with the same intel: that McCain is going to pick a running mate who exudes Commander-in-Chief qualities. We heard this from both Bill Kristol and Rudy Giuliani last week. Sorry, but that’s not Tim Pawlenty or Mitt Romney. There are at most four people who fill this role if you also include the requirement that the candidate must be liked and trusted by McCain: Rudy, Ridge, Powell, and Lieberman. My guess is that it will be one of these four, and if not, i.e., if McCain does decide to go for the domestic issues pick, it will be a total dark horse pick like Eric Cantor, the young Jewish conservative who knows how to communicate a GOP message to suburban voters.

This story via Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic:

On Sunday, McCain hosts a group of political allies and major fundraisers at his ranch in Sedona, AZ. That’s a fact. The rumor is that he’s going to use the event to introduce his vice presidential choice to his inner circle, and then, on Monday, introduce the choice to the world.

If this rumor were on the market, I wouldn’t buy too many shares.

For one thing, the McCain donor maintenance event has been scheduled for weeks. For another, VP choices aren’t usually announced to donors before they’re announced generally. Announcing his choice on Monday would seem very reactive, and if McCain wants to wait for a lull in the news cycle, he ought to hold out for just another week or so; Obama plans to take a short vacation abutting the Olympics.

Of course, this comes on the heals of a Washington Post report detailing the timeline for McCain’s selection:

Anxious to counter the blanket media coverage that has followed Sen. Barack Obama on his overseas journey, Sen. John McCain is weighing whether to announce his running mate in the coming weeks before the spotlight shifts to China and the opening of the Olympic Games next month.

“He’s in a position to make [the decision] on short notice if he wanted to,” said Charles R. Black Jr., one of McCain’s top political advisers.

Two top aides to the presumptive Republican nominee said the decision is likely to be announced after Obama returns from Europe on Sunday and before the Beijing Olympics begin Aug. 8. They said the campaign fears that unanticipated events coming out of China — whether in the form of athletic accomplishments or human rights protests — could deflect attention from the announcement if it were made during the Games.

Hey, maybe McCain will end up announcing prior to the Olympics. Regardless, these our the only possible days left (unless he makes the pick over a weekend or during the Olympics):

• Monday, July 28th- Friday, August 1st
• Monday, August 4th- Friday, August 8th (Olympic ceremonies begin at 8 PM)
• Olympics run from the August 8-24
• Democratic Convention August 25-28
• Friday, August 29th
• GOP Convention September 1-4

After endless speculation… We shall know the truth very soon.

This article is reprinted with permission from Sunlit Uplands. Im pretty sure I know Metro’s response already.-BP

From what I have observed, John McCain only consults conservative voices in the Republican Party to ensure he is working against their interests. It may be the result of the drugs and brain washing that Soviet doctors applied during his imprisonment in Vietnam. Nevertheless, some conservative leaders are making one last attempt to salvage the 2008 presidential election. The following was reported by Right Wing Watch, published by People for the American Way.

A few weeks ago, we wrote several posts about the meeting in Colorado where a large group of right-wing leaders finally decided to support John McCain. At the time, all we had were second-hand accounts that those in attendance had decided that Barack Obama would “decimate [the] moral values” they hold dear and, as such, collectively decided to support McCain as the lesser of two evils.

Glossed over in the press coverage was the fact that their support for McCain seemed to rest heavily on his choice of candidate for Vice President, with those in attendance making their preference known that they really want him to pick Mike Huckabee:

Those in attendance also reached a consensus that they would send a letter to McCain, R-Ariz., encouraging him to consider former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as his choice for vice president.

“It’s not a demand; it’s a request,” said [Mat] Staver, who couldn’t say when McCain would be contacted about Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist pastor who resonated with some evangelical voters during the Republican primaries.

Until now, the content and signatories of that letter remained unknown. But recently Clark Vandeventer, founder and CEO of World Changers, Inc, who reportedly attended the meeting and signed the letter, posted it on a blog called Veritas Rex and it seems clear that they were not so much “requesting” that McCain pick Huckabee as his Vice President as outright warning him that doing so is “necessary for [his] success”:

-Daniel J. Cassidy

Over at the RCP blog Politics Nation, Reid Wilson lists what he feels are the odds on each respective candidate for McCain’s Veep:

• Tim Pawlenty - 2:1
• Mitt Romney - 3:1
• Rob Portman - 7:1
• Charlie Crist - 15:1
• Tom Ridge - 20:1
• Lindsey Graham - 20:1
• Carly Fiorina - 20:1
• Bobby Jindal - 30:1
• Sarah Palin - 75:1
• Condoleezza Rice - 1000:1

Regarding Pawlenty’s placement on the top of the list, Wilson writes:

He’s one of McCain’s biggest backers, and he spent hours at McCain headquarters this week giving interviews and meeting with staff. That set off serious alarm bells with Politics Nation, and while the media buzz has died down a bit, we think Pawlenty remains the favorite.

Regarding Mitt:

The favorite of the Bush Administration, Romney brings economic credibility to a ticket that lacks just that. McCain is under pressure to pick his one-time rival, who could raise gobs of money for Republicans, and by all accounts the two have a better rapport now than they once did.

My only quibbles are that Bobby Jindal has removed himself and Rob Portman pretty much removed himself from consideration; and that despite the rumors, Gov. Ridge is more than a 20 to 1 shot to be selected.

Everyone who reads this blog on a regular basis knows that I am a huge fan of Gov. Ridge and that I believe he would be an excellent choice for the #2 spot on the ticket. However, people are forgetting that Sen. McCain almost completely ruled Gov. Ridge out of the Veepstakes weeks ago while being interviewed by Chris Matthews.

If McCain does indeed select Gov. Ridge, I would be very happy with that pick as the number of people that can truly claim to be a great American hero are few–and Gov. Ridge is in that select company. However, it would seem out of character for Sen. McCain to make this selection after so plainly stating that he thought it would be difficult for him to select Ridge because their views on Abortion differ so greatly.